Length of deal holding up Alex Smith contract

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm getting tired of all the Josh Johnson talk. I'd rather go with CK.

Presumably Johnson would be for depth and competition. I don't think he'd be guaranteed anything in that scenario.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

How many teams do you think are truly in the picture?

If its:
Broncos
Chiefs
Dolphins
Cardinals
Seahawks

I cant see none of those teams even pursuing Alex. I think his best chance at getting starters money is Cleveland...

I think a lot of teams will place Flynn ahead of Smith on their list of priorities. So Manning goes one place and Flynn goes somewhere else. I can't see Denver (the FO doesn't like Tebow, but would get booed out of town if they dumped him for Smith), KC (Cassel probably as good or better than Smith), or the Cards (if they don't get Manning, presumably they'll pay Kolb) taking Smith. The Dolphins are a possibility, as are the Hawks and Browns. But are any of those teams going to offer him a fat, five-year contract? How much value does Smith have to another team? I think we've got all the leverage here. If he pushes too hard, we go with CK. Presumably the staff feels alright about that.

 

[jayviabay]

I think a lot of teams will place Flynn ahead of Smith on their list of priorities. So Manning goes one place and Flynn goes somewhere else. I can't see Denver (the FO doesn't like Tebow, but would get booed out of town if they dumped him for Smith), KC (Cassel probably as good or better than Smith), or the Cards (if they don't get Manning, presumably they'll pay Kolb) taking Smith. The Dolphins are a possibility, as are the Hawks and Browns. But are any of those teams going to offer him a fat, five-year contract? How much value does Smith have to another team? I think we've got all the leverage here. If he pushes too hard, we go with CK. Presumably the staff feels alright about that.

These were my thoughts as well

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I think a lot of teams will place Flynn ahead of Smith on their list of priorities. So Manning goes one place and Flynn goes somewhere else. I can't see Denver (the FO doesn't like Tebow, but would get booed out of town if they dumped him for Smith), KC (Cassel probably as good or better than Smith), or the Cards (if they don't get Manning, presumably they'll pay Kolb) taking Smith. The Dolphins are a possibility, as are the Hawks and Browns. But are any of those teams going to offer him a fat, five-year contract? How much value does Smith have to another team? I think we've got all the leverage here. If he pushes too hard, we go with CK. Presumably the staff feels alright about that.

I don't know how many teams would actually place Flynn over Smith. That depends on a lot of factors - well maybe maybe just comes down to money really. But as far as teams that might be interested in Smith I think he ends up here of course, but I think you are dead on if he doesn't Browns, Dolphins, Seahawks.

 

[jayviabay]

If Alex Smith is not signed by the niners i think he will be on the market until after the draft...

Seahawks could kick the idea around and might make an offer if they lose out on the Manning deal. I see the dolphins pushing for Flynn and his potential. As i thought about the cleveland idea a little more i remembered this:

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot believes the Browns will "seriously consider" Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill if they lose out in the Robert Griffin III sweepstakes.
Cabot does believe the Browns will pursue RGIII "hard." If they get outbid by the Redskins, though, team president Mike Holmgren could trade down with a team interested in Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, or Morris Claiborne at No. 4 overall. Coach Pat Shurmur said last week that he was "equally impressed" with Tannehill at the Combine as he was with Griffin. Mar. 9 - 1:33 pm et
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

 

[Kinzu]

4th pick overall is way to high for Tannehill in my opinion. Then again teams proved to be desperate when it comes to QB's in the draft last year. Ponder and Locker went well ahead of their value.

 

[clyde_carbon]

4th pick overall is way to high for Tannehill in my opinion. Then again teams proved to be desperate when it comes to QB's in the draft last year. Ponder and Locker went well ahead of their value.

Ponder yes, Locker no.

 

[Jikkle]

4th pick overall is way to high for Tannehill in my opinion. Then again teams proved to be desperate when it comes to QB's in the draft last year. Ponder and Locker went well ahead of their value.

I think if I was the Browns I would either entice the Rams to trade up to the number 4 spot so they can take Blackmon

Or take Blackmon at #4 and use their second 1st rounder and trade up to take Tannehill and basically do what the Bengals did and get a #1 WR and a franchise QB in one sweep.

 

[deep9er]

I think if I was the Browns I would either entice the Rams to trade up to the number 4 spot so they can take Blackmon

Or take Blackmon at #4 and use their second 1st rounder and trade up to take Tannehill and basically do what the Bengals did and get a #1 WR and a franchise QB in one sweep.

just wondering...if all these teams fill in their QB's prior to the draft, wouldn't it be good odds Tannehill falls to #17? [or whatever their second 1st round pick is] so i'd take my chances and not trade up from #17.

but yeah, instead of forcing Tannehill (assuming he's not worth #4), take a player who is.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Ponder yes, Locker no.

ponder should have been a 2nd rounder, back up with potential. locker was and is an enigma. if he's there in the 5th or 6th i'd consider him, but he's the ultimate boom and bust qb.

 

[MHSL82]

If Alex Smith is not signed by the niners i think he will be on the market until after the draft...

Seahawks could kick the idea around and might make an offer if they lose out on the Manning deal. I see the dolphins pushing for Flynn and his potential. As i thought about the cleveland idea a little more i remembered this:

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot believes the Browns will "seriously consider" Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill if they lose out in the Robert Griffin III sweepstakes.
Cabot does believe the Browns will pursue RGIII "hard." If they get outbid by the Redskins, though, team president Mike Holmgren could trade down with a team interested in Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, or Morris Claiborne at No. 4 overall. Coach Pat Shurmur said last week that he was "equally impressed" with Tannehill at the Combine as he was with Griffin. Mar. 9 - 1:33 pm et
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

If Alex gets to free agency, I think it would be smart for the Seahawks to make an offer to Smith that is for five years, 10/year to drive up our price. I don't think it would fully work, but it might have an effect. It would be believable because Scott McCloughlan being there, the fact that their QB situation isn't solid, and Alex is from there originally before San Diego. Plus, they would like to have Alex so they could get our playbook ideas and Carrol doesn't like Harbaugh (which actually makes it less likely, I suppose, that Alex would like the Hawks). Signing Smith would not disrupt Seattle's roster because Alex is not perceived well enough to be coming in as the starter - they could sell it as competition for their guy (though I guess not for that money).

But even if they did this, I don't see Alex selecting them unless he really believes in himself and fears Kaep or something (I know a bit of a contradiction, but I think the length of deal Alex is asking for has a little to do with Kaep and the money to a little with himself). Assuring the longest starting career is a priority, money third (winning is first, one reason not to sign with them). I also don't see the Niners matching - but I would see a compromise because the reasons for the offer are plausible (Scott, no QB there, etc.).

 

[Flyingiguana]

so the seahawks to get mario williams and alex smith? games will end 7-6 with the winning td being a pass by kap to crabtree getting deflected in the air and browner running it in for a td

 

[MHSL82]

How Sanchez's contract could impact 49ers, Alex Smith

I still think we have the leverage. I don't see the Manning loser paying Alex that much.

I think this is the problem with directional thinking (as opposed to big picture aerial view). Based on the contracts and stats, it makes sense. Just look at the stats and winning percentage from 2009-2011. Yes, those are including the bad years.

RYAN FITZPATRICK, Bills
Age: 29
Contract status: Signed contract extension on Oct. 28, 2011, that totals seven years, $62.195 million with $24 million guaranteed.

2009-2011 statistics
Games (W-L): 39 games, 37 starts (14-23)
Comp-Att (Pct): 735 of 1,237 (59.4)
Avg yards per game: 211.6
TDs/Int: 56/48
Rating: 78.3

* * *

MARK SANCHEZ, Jets
Age: 25
Contract status: Signed contract extension on Friday that reportedly totals five years, $58.25 million with $20.5 million in guarantees for 2012 and '13. The deal includes three new years with $40.5 million in new money.

2009-2011 statistics
Games (W-L): 47 games, 47 starts (27-20)
Comp-Att (Pct): 782 of 1,414 (55.3)
Avg yards per game: 195.9
TDs/Int: 55/51
Rating: 73.2

* * *

ALEX SMITH, 49ers
Age: 28 in May
Contract status: Unsigned for 2012

2009-2011 statistics
Games (W-L): 38 games, 36 starts (21-15)
Comp-Att (Pct): 702 of 1,159 (60.6)
Avg yards per game: 206.9
TDs/Int: 49/27
Rating: 85.2

But then, look at the big picture: Alex is not covetted by many in the league (generous statement), Alex will perform best here, we have Kaep in the wings, etc. Plus, almost everyone has seen these three as being overpaid, why follow suit, unless you think that Alex is worth that (which the 49ers are saying they don't). Giving into peer pressure is not a good thing.

 

[MHSL82]

Don't want to add to my previous post, so I'm starting another.

They shouldn't do this, but they could take those two contracts and take the lesser everywhere. Take the 5 years/20.5 guaranteed from Sanchez's deal. Take the 8.88 million per year from Fitzpatrick's deal. That would come out to 5 years, 44.43 million, 20.5 million guaranteed.

Or make that for three years, pro-rata. 4 years, 35.5 million, 16.4 guaranteed.

 

[Ltrain]

According to CSN Bay Area, the 49ers are "reticent" to offer Alex Smith a deal with $20 million-plus guaranteed because they "want to keep the door open" for Colin Kaepernick to eventually take over as quarterback.
The 49ers are also reportedly "balking" at offering Smith a Ryan Fitzpatrick-like deal because they don't believe it was "indicative of Fitzpatrick's true value." The 49ers are correct in that assessment, but talks figure to get even more complicated on the heels of the reckless extension the Jets handed Mark Sanchez. Smith appears headed for the open market, but it's highly unlikely anyone will be more motivated to sign him than San Francisco. Mar. 10 - 12:30 pm et

Fantasy Football Breaking News - Rotoworld.com

Things are getting interesting...should be an exciting week.

 

[Flyingiguana]

all it takes is one desperate gm to offer smith a fitzpatrick contract. if smith signs elsewhere what are the other options? manning is a huge risk, but it's something we should be looking at.

 

[deep9er]

If Alex gets to free agency, I think it would be smart for the Seahawks to make an offer to Smith that is for five years, 10/year to drive up our price. I don't think it would fully work, but it might have an effect. It would be believable because Scott McCloughlan being there, the fact that their QB situation isn't solid, and Alex is from there originally before San Diego. Plus, they would like to have Alex so they could get our playbook ideas and Carrol doesn't like Harbaugh (which actually makes it less likely, I suppose, that Alex would like the Hawks). Signing Smith would not disrupt Seattle's roster because Alex is not perceived well enough to be coming in as the starter - they could sell it as competition for their guy (though I guess not for that money).

But even if they did this, I don't see Alex selecting them unless he really believes in himself and fears Kaep or something (I know a bit of a contradiction, but I think the length of deal Alex is asking for has a little to do with Kaep and the money to a little with himself). Assuring the longest starting career is a priority, money third (winning is first, one reason not to sign with them). I also don't see the Niners matching - but I would see a compromise because the reasons for the offer are plausible (Scott, no QB there, etc.).

are we saying sign him for 5 years at $10-12M for this purpose?

 

[deep9er]

all it takes is one desperate gm to offer smith a fitzpatrick contract. if smith signs elsewhere what are the other options? manning is a huge risk, but it's something we should be looking at.

IMO Alex is the lesser of the evils, but there has to be a limit on what we pay?

agree with those who feel we have the leverage and as such, negotiate near our number. if we buckle and give him 'market price', we'll hurt ourselves. if other teams value their QB differently (as they should), thats their business.

 

[numone9er]

NFL.com news: Niners' Smith on new contract: 'It will get done'

Smith - "It will get done"

 

[Kinzu]

Smith is looking for security that he is the guy in San Francisco. That is what this is all about. I don't think the years on the contract is as big a sticking point as the guaranteed money. He wants a contract that will make it harder for the 49ers to just replace him after another season.

The 49ers on the other hand want to leave that door open obviously since they spent a 2nd round pick on Kaep.

I think Smith is an honest guy to where if he is not getting done he would gladly step aside for Kaep, but he doesn't want to have another good year and then suddenly end up being the backup just because the 49ers decided after 2 years it's time to start Kaep.