Kap by the Numbers

[-AC-]

I'm not a fan of the play calling either. I'm not going to read it because I assume its just saying the same crap I have been thinking about Roman.

Anyway, I don't really read that quote to say "it's all the QBs fault." To me it just more speaks to the strange blame shifting we as fans have been doing for the past decade or so.

It has been a traumatic time. The ghost of Alex Smith looms very large.

I assumed the same thing about the post until I read that same persons next few post's...

But you are right, its knee-jerk reactions that drive me crazy. Going back to the espin boards, every other thread was QB related, from anything like multiple "its all Alex Smith's fault" threads to bringing in the likes of Donovan McNabb (in his later years) as the answer to solving the QB problem. Now the 49ers have a real viable option with a tremendous skill set, that is still very raw. But some fans still aren't happy, and focus on the negatives instead. I realize he is far from perfect, but with more experience and coaching he has a chance to be pretty damn good for a long time. I just think its way to soon to pull the plug on the Kaepernick era...

I'm all for moving on if he doesn't get it. But I don't know that anyone from the professional football mind down to the message board fan can determine what Kaepernick really is after only just completing his first full season...

With that said, I still don't think Greg Roman is a QB friendly coordinator...

 

[whysies]

I assumed the same thing about the post until I read that same persons next few post's...

But you are right, its knee-jerk reactions that drive me crazy. Going back to the espin boards, every other thread was QB related, from anything like multiple "its all Alex Smith's fault" threads to bringing in the likes of Donovan McNabb (in his later years) as the answer to solving the QB problem. Now the 49ers have a real viable option with a tremendous skill set, that is still very raw. But some fans still aren't happy, and focus on the negatives instead. I realize he is far from perfect, but with more experience and coaching he has a chance to be pretty damn good for a long time. I just think its way to soon to pull the plug on the Kaepernick era...

I'm all for moving on if he doesn't get it. But I don't know that anyone from the professional football mind down to the message board fan can determine what Kaepernick really is after only just completing his first full season...

With that said, I still don't think Greg Roman is a QB friendly coordinator...

I 100% agree with you brother. I love Kaepernick's potential. And I'm not going to go so far as to label him a big dumb drooling retard.

But, I have been one of the most vocal critics of Kap on this board. And largely what that stems from is that the 49ers are at a critical juncture, one that could possible define the team for the next half decade or more. And it makes me nervous. I don't think Kap is total garbage, and as I said the potential is there. But he scares me. I just don't think he really improved at all this year, and he still made the same blunders at the end of the year as at the beginning. I'm fine with taking our lumps and seeing if a guy will pan out. I'm not ok with paying a guy 100 million+ and not knowing whether he had panned out yet or not. That's where a lot of my vocal criticism comes from. There are people who have crowned him and claimed that he's top 6 or whatever and to me, that's laughable. If this is what he is (and he hasn't shown any indication that he will improve), AND we have to pay him 100 million for the same QB play then we are fucked. Bye bye Superbowl aspirations.

I really hope he improves. I enjoy watching him play (when he's good Kap, not when he's bad Kap of course ). But it's hard for me to keep my mouth shut when people proclaim that he has arrived, and/or blame outside factors for his fundamental QB blunders. To me that's all on Kap, and its on him to fix it.

 

[-AC-]

I 100% agree with you brother. I love Kaepernick's potential. And I'm not going to go so far as to label him a big dumb drooling retard.

But, I have been one of the most vocal critics of Kap on this board. And largely what that stems from is that the 49ers are at a critical juncture, one that could possible define the team for the next half decade or more. And it makes me nervous. I don't think Kap is total garbage, and as I said the potential is there. But he scares me. I just don't think he really improved at all this year, and he still made the same blunders at the end of the year as at the beginning. I'm fine with taking our lumps and seeing if a guy will pan out. I'm not ok with paying a guy 100 million+ and not knowing whether he had panned out yet or not. That's where a lot of my vocal criticism comes from. There are people who have crowned him and claimed that he's top 6 or whatever and to me, that's laughable. If this is what he is (and he hasn't shown any indication that he will improve), AND we have to pay him 100 million for the same QB play then we are fucked. Bye bye Superbowl aspirations.

I really hope he improves. I enjoy watching him play (when he's good Kap, not when he's bad Kap of course ). But it's hard for me to keep my mouth shut when people proclaim that he has arrived, and/or blame outside factors for his fundamental QB blunders. To me that's all on Kap, and its on him to fix it.

At the beginning of the season I was critical of him as well, and was not happy with many things on the field or how he conducted himself off the field during the off-season for that matter... But as the season went on, it was pretty clear that Roman and Kaepernick are as compatible as a round peg and a square hole. I have a hard time thinking Roman can adjust to what defenses are doing to combat what he is or is wanting to do. I also think he often clams up as the play caller and doesn't handle game situations real well. Its also pretty clear that he doesn't play to the strengths of all of his offensive personnel or use what he has to the most of their ability...

In regard to his contract, just to be clear I have tried to stay away from the contract talk. But, I will say if they can sign him now to a bargain type deal with less guaranteed money than what most of the beat-writers are predicting then I say go for it. However, if it is on par as some of the others (5 years 100 million) than I think it would be wise to slow play contractual talks and wait until the end of next season and address it then. I'm also in favor of playing it year by year until he does show definitively one way or the other what he really is...

When you mention that it worries you about long-terming Kap, I tend to worry about letting him go and then thinking about what a guy like Sean Payton and his pass happy staff (or someone of that caliber) could do with Kap's talents...

 

[deep9er]

Top 5 things Kaepernick does not do well | Inside the 49ers

will have to agree. this isn't to say the "sky is falling", but a reasonable opinion on Kaep.

would like to extend Kaep like most here, but at the same time draft the next QB. if there is value anywhere in this draft, take him. if no value, don't force.

do not want to throw all our QB eggs in the Kaep basket. he may continue to pass at this current level, or even regress? IF that pans out, no amount of running, athleticism, or arm strength, makes up for it.

then there is always the potential injury.

 

[MHSL82]

Top 5 things Kaepernick does not do well | Inside the 49ers

will have to agree. this isn't to say the "sky is falling", but a reasonable opinion on Kaep.

would like to extend Kaep like most here, but at the same time draft the next QB. if there is value anywhere in this draft, take him. if no value, don't force.

do not want to throw all our QB eggs in the Kaep basket. he may continue to pass at this current level, or even regress? IF that pans out, no amount of running, athleticism, or arm strength, makes up for it.

then there is always the potential injury.

I haven't read the article yet. However, I think is evident that this is a product of too high of expectations. Kaepernick took over a great team and played great with freedom to take risks and ability to make them pay off. A lot of people saw 2012 as his floor, that made some write blank checks on the weaknesses (assumed they'd be fixed with an offseason or two so some didn't put much hedging there) and assumed the strengths would always be there and be used (I felt the coaches limited him, made him become conservative).

Some might feel the conservativism was injury-based (WRs), but I think it's clear that while we'd get more with a healthy roster, the philosophy was already there.

Now that the weaknesses are still being worked on and dome adjustments by the league to his style of play and the strengths are inconsistently displayed, people feel like they have to point out fault for him not staying at an upward trajectory all season. If people had placed on him the expectations of a 1/2 year QB, I don't think we get this article's title - we'd get "what Kaepernick and the coaches need to work on."

 

[FourBeeDen]

I haven't read the article yet. However, I think is evident that this is a product of too high of expectations. Kaepernick took over a great team and played great with freedom to take risks and ability to make them pay off. A lot of people saw 2012 as his floor, that made some write blank checks on the weaknesses (assumed they'd be fixed with an offseason or two so some didn't put much hedging there) and assumed the strengths would always be there and be used (I felt the coaches limited him, made him become conservative).

Some might feel the conservativism was injury-based (WRs), but I think it's clear that while we'd get more with a healthy roster, the philosophy was already there.

Now that the weaknesses are still being worked on and dome adjustments by the league to his style of play and the strengths are inconsistently displayed, people feel like they have to point out fault for him not staying at an upward trajectory all season. If people had placed on him the expectations of a 1/2 year QB, I don't think we get this article's title - we'd get "what Kaepernick and the coaches need to work on."

There are 2 articles actually.. What he does well and does not do well...

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Top 5 things Kaepernick does not do well | Inside the 49ers

will have to agree. this isn't to say the "sky is falling", but a reasonable opinion on Kaep.

would like to extend Kaep like most here, but at the same time draft the next QB. if there is value anywhere in this draft, take him. if no value, don't force.

do not want to throw all our QB eggs in the Kaep basket. he may continue to pass at this current level, or even regress? IF that pans out, no amount of running, athleticism, or arm strength, makes up for it.

then there is always the potential injury.

I was going to post this article, too. It's a bit dramatic, as Cohn, Jr. tends to be, but I think his criticisms are fair. And I share his concerns about Kap working on his areas of weakness. I really did not see the improvement this year that I'd hoped to. I really hope Kap spends a good chunk of the offseason working on his footwork, throwing motion, and reads. If he could clean up his footwork and tighten up his release, he'd be lethal. He delivers the ball with great velocity, but his windup gives DBs much more a chance to break on the ball. If he could get similar speed with a faster release, he could pick teams apart. Assuming the accuracy also improves. No doubt he's got some serious work to do this offseason. I just hope he's working on the right things.

 

[MHSL82]

I have never seen a journalist participate in the comments section of their articles as much as Cohn does.

 

[deep9er]

I haven't read the article yet. However, I think is evident that this is a product of too high of expectations. Kaepernick took over a great team and played great with freedom to take risks and ability to make them pay off. A lot of people saw 2012 as his floor, that made some write blank checks on the weaknesses (assumed they'd be fixed with an offseason or two so some didn't put much hedging there) and assumed the strengths would always be there and be used (I felt the coaches limited him, made him become conservative).

Some might feel the conservativism was injury-based (WRs), but I think it's clear that while we'd get more with a healthy roster, the philosophy was already there.

Now that the weaknesses are still being worked on and dome adjustments by the league to his style of play and the strengths are inconsistently displayed, people feel like they have to point out fault for him not staying at an upward trajectory all season. If people had placed on him the expectations of a 1/2 year QB, I don't think we get this article's title - we'd get "what Kaepernick and the coaches need to work on."

no doubt the expectations were too high, but as you say...........he is playing for a 'great' team. so one might argue it is easier for a QB to do well?

guess as in most things, it should be somewhere between?

again, hope to keep Kaep but don't want to be "complacent". don't see why we can't be looking at QB's, even if Kaep is extended?

 

[deep9er]

I was going to post this article, too. It's a bit dramatic, as Cohn, Jr. tends to be, but I think his criticisms are fair. And I share his concerns about Kap working on his areas of weakness. I really did not see the improvement this year that I'd hoped to. I really hope Kap spends a good chunk of the offseason working on his footwork, throwing motion, and reads. If he could clean up his footwork and tighten up his release, he'd be lethal. He delivers the ball with great velocity, but his windup gives DBs much more a chance to break on the ball. If he could get similar speed with a faster release, he could pick teams apart. Assuming the accuracy also improves. No doubt he's got some serious work to do this offseason. I just hope he's working on the right things.

this morning on local radio. a national "NFL draft type" said the knock on Kaep was accuracy. he said to date Kaep has exceeded those projections, but not by much. he then said Kaep could always "regress" back to his 'natural' passing skills.

this is open to a lot of counter opinion, plus he's talking within a small range? so just mentioning it as something to consider looking down the road.

Kaep had some GOOD passing games, so it isn't like he's devoid of passing skills. it just more consistency with those better games.

 

[deep9er]

4. Throw with touch. Every pass Kaepernick throws is a rocket. Bill Walsh would disapprove. Kaepernick does not throw a ball that is easy to catch, does not throw with touch. That contributes to his innaccuracy and his poor passing numbers near the opponent’s goal line

thought this was a good point, good hands do cover up some of those inaccurate throws.

then we all know about problems in the red zone. what kind of passes can Kaep throw in the RZ?

 

[SeattleNinersFan]

Top 5 things Kaepernick does not do well | Inside the 49ers

will have to agree. this isn't to say the "sky is falling", but a reasonable opinion on Kaep.

would like to extend Kaep like most here, but at the same time draft the next QB. if there is value anywhere in this draft, take him. if no value, don't force.

do not want to throw all our QB eggs in the Kaep basket. he may continue to pass at this current level, or even regress? IF that pans out, no amount of running, athleticism, or arm strength, makes up for it.

then there is always the potential injury.

Please call out when it is a Cohn article, I would prefer not to click through it as neither one deserves my patronage.

 

[deep9er]

Please call out when it is a Cohn article, I would prefer not to click through it as neither one deserves my patronage.

and that's fine by me, really. there are more than a few posters who don't like Cohn, Lowell Cohn. pretty sure this one was Grant Cohn, but didn't check as I'm typing this.

like ANY writer, we should read it and then form our own opinions. just because we read Cohn articles, doesn't mean we have to take it as gospel? doesn't mean we have to believe any of it? in this case, don't feel it was a waste of time, IMO these things are fair and reasonable. we all see it ourselves watching Kaep play.

 

[TobyTyler]

I don't care for the playcalling either but Roman isn't the one who can't read a defense, locks onto receivers, has no awareness of the playclock/gameclock, or gets chased around by ghosts.

Ouch!

 

[willtalk]

First I will repeat what I posted on the Cohen article. I don't feel that last season was a good measure of Kaeps level of progress in development. There were just too many variables and in my mind questions and contradictions in the stats that Grant posted. Not that the stats were wrong but they raised questions. I feel that more than Kaep it was the coaching staff that was mostly responsible for Kaeps substandard season. Some of it was obviously him but not as much as he is getting the heat for. One just has to have the ability to read between the lines and a pattern begins to form. It seems to me that he is taking the heat for things the coaching staff wants him to do. Just like for years people believed that the clock management problem was on the QB ( that included Alex as well) It now became obvious that it was mostly the result of the plays being relayed in to late. How long did the staff let them take the blame? That is just one example and their are more.

As to Kaeps contract. I for one think QB's are overpaid in relation to the rest of the team. I as a 49er fan am less concerned with making sure that the players get paid than keeping the cap as low as possible. I don't care if they sign him for minimum wage. It would make me happy. That said on of the things that I like about Kaep is that he loves to play the game. He could have optioned after high school to play baseball since at the time it seem that that was were his future lay. He probably could have made much more money in that sport. He instead chose football not for money but for the love of the game. That love translates to desire which can translate to effort and production on the field. He has stated that his priority in signing a new contract would not be on getting what he can get rather it would be team friendly in order to assure that the team would still have cap room enough to sign other quality players. This was no surprise to me in fact I expected it based on his personality. He will not ask for or get a very high priced contract. He wants to win and saw what has happened with the Ravens. It also makes sense financially because a lot of his money comes from endorsements and if the team loses their exposure and those endorsements would not be as valuable. It's a trade off either way and it sure would be preferable to get more money from endorsements because of winning than to get the difference in salary and lose.

 

[MHSL82]

First I will repeat what I posted on the Cohen article. I don't feel that last season was a good measure of Kaeps level of progress in development. There were just too many variables and in my mind questions and contradictions in the stats that Grant posted. Not that the stats were wrong but they raised questions. I feel that more than Kaep it was the coaching staff that was mostly responsible for Kaeps substandard season. Some of it was obviously him but not as much as he is getting the heat for. One just has to have the ability to read between the lines and a pattern begins to form. It seems to me that he is taking the heat for things the coaching staff wants him to do. Just like for years people believed that the clock management problem was on the QB ( that included Alex as well) It now became obvious that it was mostly the result of the plays being relayed in to late. How long did the staff let them take the blame? That is just one example and their are more.

As to Kaeps contract. I for one think QB's are overpaid in relation to the rest of the team. I as a 49er fan am less concerned with making sure that the players get paid than keeping the cap as low as possible. I don't care if they sign him for minimum wage. It would make me happy. That said on of the things that I like about Kaep is that he loves to play the game. He could have optioned after high school to play baseball since at the time it seem that that was were his future lay. He probably could have made much more money in that sport. He instead chose football not for money but for the love of the game. That love translates to desire which can translate to effort and production on the field. He has stated that his priority in signing a new contract would not be on getting what he can get rather it would be team friendly in order to assure that the team would still have cap room enough to sign other quality players. This was no surprise to me in fact I expected it based on his personality. He will not ask for or get a very high priced contract. He wants to win and saw what has happened with the Ravens. It also makes sense financially because a lot of his money comes from endorsements and if the team loses their exposure and those endorsements would not be as valuable. It's a trade off either way and it sure would be preferable to get more money from endorsements because of winning than to get the difference in salary and lose.

I believe he will take a deal that at the very least is low enough that they can PR it however they like. They can say he gave a discount but it's enough to commit to him. I don't see him breaking the bank right now, but he'll be one of the highest if not highest paid players on the team (per year basis, not talking about the cap).

Having said that, if he does take the gigantic megabucks, it's on him. I don't want to hear that he has no help. Injuries are different. Bad drafting is different. Those reasons are ok. But the 49ers, a great organization with a rich history, good coaching, and great overall talent can attract help for Kaep... or at least if Kaep doesn't take the money away.

Find a balance of getting Kaep the weapons and getting Kaep paid and I'm fine, but if he takes a major contract - even if this year's cap space isn't taken (but guaranteed high) - then he needs to produce like one. Stats rarely concern me unless it shows something that will hurt the team, winning does. But if it's a major contract, it would feel like a waste if we're getting low production and winning off defense while the offense can't pay good enough players to make the team work. Cap issues, of course, could hurt the defense, too.