Kaepernick's Potential Contract Extension

[MHSL82]

On next Kaepernick deal and advanced data - San Francisco 49ers Blog - ESPN

We need to protect him not only from sacks, but from pressure and he needs to get better, too:

"Kaepernick had an accuracy rating of 54.6 percent under pressure last season, the worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, he was sacked on 20.2 percent of snaps when under duress, the fourth-worst rate among starters."

 

[MHSL82]

Here's the whole article:

Entering the final year of his rookie contract, an extension for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick could be on the horizon.

But as Kaepernick looks for the 49ers to show him the money, 49ers president Paraag Marathe could be singing a different tune: Show me the numbers.

Marathe was part of a panel discussion Saturday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, an annual convention that explores the use of statistical data in decision making. At one point, ESPN's Suzy Kolber -- who was moderating the panel -- pulled out the latest version of ESPN the Magazine.

On page 66 is a research tidbit showing that Kaepernick had an accuracy rating of 54.6 percent under pressure last season, the worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, he was sacked on 20.2 percent of snaps when under duress, the fourth-worst rate among starters.

Kolber asked Marathe about how the team views that sort of data.

"I guess, I could have a different answer if he was under contract for eight more years -- versus under contract for one more year -- so I'm particularly intrigued with that article, which I have to go and read," Marathe said, tongue in cheek.

Ultimately, any concerns about Kaepernick's play under pressure likely will not get in the way of a contract extension. The two sides have begun preliminary talks and a lucrative deal could get done this offseason.

Marathe, who was promoted to team president in January, said that advanced statistics "absolutely play a big role" in contract negotiations.

"Both sides in a contract negotiation, both sides are using analytics and data to help support -- it's confirmation bias to the max, everybody's trying to find evidence that supports whatever theory or contract demand they want to make," he said. "They can cut it and slice it in a lot of ways that help you.

"Here's one that may not help them as much, so that's why I'm looking forward to reading it."

Later in the discussion, Marathe was asked more generally about the importance of a quarterback to a team's success.

"That's the single biggest differentiator," he said. "If you can get by with average talent, but if you have a superior quarterback, you'll see the best quarterbacks -- the Hall of Fame quarterbacks -- it doesn't matter what kind of talent they have, even if they have really bad talent around them, they're going to finish 7-9 [or] 8-8. They're never going to go 3-13."

 

[Ltrain]

I trust Marathe to do what's right here as he has proven to be a great numbers guy. Even if we extend him I expect the long term cost to not cripple the team.

 

[ChrisPozz]

I wish I had saved some of the ESPN threads from many years ago when I used to post so much stuff on Marathe. There were MAYBE a handful of people (semi-regulars to regulars) who thought of him positively back then on there.

 

[kennyt12]

Here's what I'm thinking but I'm not sure if it would work or not. He has a year left at 1mil. Why not sign him to a 6 year 15mil per year contract tearing up his rooking contract. Now I know that getting him for 1mil is Awesome but I'd want to balance the salary over the long haul. 6 years at 15 mil = 90mil, it's like signing him to a 5 year/18 per = 90mil dollar deal after next season. It's the same $ amount but it would make the Kaep cap hit lower.

 

[deep9er]

Here's what I'm thinking but I'm not sure if it would work or not. He has a year left at 1mil. Why not sign him to a 6 year 15mil per year contract tearing up his rooking contract. Now I know that getting him for 1mil is Awesome but I'd want to balance the salary over the long haul. 6 years at 15 mil = 90mil, it's like signing him to a 5 year/18 per = 90mil dollar deal after next season. It's the same $ amount but it would make the Kaep cap hit lower.

but if I'm Kaep, wouldn't take this deal, cause I'm thinking my status will climb and my worth will exceed this come 2015.

personally, I'd think this sounds about right if it was 2 years - ie a bridge contract.

 

[purguy12]

I hope Kap takes like a 16 mill a year contract.

 

[badazzk9]

I hope Kap takes like a 16 mill a year contract.

me too 3 year 16 mil...

 

[purguy12]

5 years 82 million 24 Guaranteed.

 

[Ltrain]

Florio is a POS who can EAD

Just saw he has another anti-49ers article (I'm not posting it as it is not worthy of clicks) citing yet another "source" that Kap wants $18 million per year and then outlining the reasons he isn't worth the money. And then compounding it by regurgitating the Harbaugh debacle that he assisted in blowing out of proportion IMO. The comments are modded to primarily allow people bashing kap and that he is only worth around $8 per year. SMH at the media's offseason's attempt to tear this team apart and Florio is the leader "journalist".

 

[Ray_Dogg]

LOL. Florio has done nothing wrong. He was the first to break the Browns news which everyone confirmed. He is passing along reports from multiple people in this post and it all brings up valid points. At this point I would call Kaep's bluff and make him play out the last year on his deal. The cap is exploding with space the next two years after this and we also can tag. Pretty much a no-brainer.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

@RapSheet: More than that. RT @ProFootballTalk: Report: Colin Kaepernick looking for $18 million per year Report: Kaepernick looking for $18 million per year | ProFootballTalk

 

[MHSL82]

Report: Kaepernick looking for $18 million per year | ProFootballTalk

 

[purguy12]

Nice Post. Like I said I would 16.5 million a year for him. I would tell his agent he hasn't won a Superbowl and hasn't started enough games to be matched with Cutler, Romo and Stafford. Yes u have had more success but be a team player.


Come on Kap take the Brady Approach. Take less to help the team.

 

[AngryNiner]

Just saw he has another anti-49ers article (I'm not posting it as it is not worthy of clicks) citing yet another "source" that Kap wants $18 million per year and then outlining the reasons he isn't worth the money. And then compounding it by regurgitating the Harbaugh debacle that he assisted in blowing out of proportion IMO. The comments are modded to primarily allow people bashing kap and that he is only worth around $8 per year. SMH at the media's offseason's attempt to tear this team apart and Florio is the leader "journalist".

When I have seen him on TV, he never really seemed anti-49ers. I havent seen him in the last month or so but from the things that you has said in your post, I would say that the 18 mil is probably right and about 8 mil a year is about where I would value him. so... yeah. its especially difficult to formulate an opinion on his 'hater' status since you opted out of posting the article in question.

 

[Ltrain]

When I have seen him on TV, he never really seemed anti-49ers. I havent seen him in the last month or so but from the things that you has said in your post, I would say that the 18 mil is probably right and about 8 mil a year is about where I would value him. so... yeah. its especially difficult to formulate an opinion on his 'hater' status since you opted out of posting the article in question.

Ray posted it above...so you think Kap is worth less than Alex Smith (who makes $9.2 million per year) and 15 other QBs?

 

[AngryNiner]

Ray posted it above...so you think Kap is worth less than Alex Smith (who makes $9.2 million per year) and 15 other QBs?

I just saw he posted that.

Yes.

 

[Uhsplit]

As is a similar situation with our QB, Kaep is in the right place for him. Both of our teams are built around defense with a strong running game. Even though it is said this is a QB driven league, the best teams in the NFL have the best defenses (Sea,SF), not offenses.
It is in Kaeps advantage to stay put with SF as the way the team is built plays into his hand. Like Seattle, it is usually not necessary for either QB to put the team on the QBs shoulders to win the game. Sometimes that is required to win and both of our QBs have done well in that regard.
It will be interesting to see this play out in the near future, just as the RW upcoming contract will be worthy of a watch.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Ray posted it above...so you think Kap is worth less than Alex Smith (who makes $9.2 million per year) and 15 other QBs?

No, and the report doesn't state that either.

Idiots can post all kinds of bs in the comments section. Who cares.

 

[MHSL82]

Ray posted it above...so you think Kap is worth less than Alex Smith (who makes $9.2 million per year) and 15 other QBs?

Alex made 24 over three years - 7.5 this next year. Doesn't change your point but it would be the same or slightly more.

Maybe take 8 + 18 = 26 / 2 = 13/year. They could do a bridge contract where it is 1 million this year as scheduled (team player), 8 next year as this guy says, and 18 what Kaepernick is asking for. Three years 27 million, 9 guaranteed with the 18M third year being an April 2016 roster bonus (it would be displayed as fully guaranteed to the regular public like a 9/year deal) - where if Kaepernick delivers this year, they add 3-4 years to it at 18 per added year. If he doesn't deliver this year, he's on a prove it 8 million dollar one-year deal (third year is cuttable).

Not really suggesting it, just saying there are levels of structuring. Don't like9/year? You could do the same by adding a few to this year or next. Point is, make the third year 18, what he's reportedly asking for - they can always restructure/extend higher (Kaepernick wouldn't object).