Kaepernick's contract situation

[whysies]

yep, big IF? these recent draft picks will need to pan out WELL? cause this current D group won't stay together much longer.

at this point, we know Reid has panned out assuming he doesn't get more concussions? Lemonier looks good so far in the rushing area? we don't know about Dial and Carradine? next draft we'll have to hit on a few more D guys.

this current D has already taken a big drop (from 2011) in run defense. this IMPLIES Justin Smith and Ray McDonald aren't on the upswing? Rogers is likely gone and maybe Whitner too? Willis and Brooks aren't spring chickens if you think next season and beyond.

if this was 2011, your thought might have merit, but today we shouldn't "settle" for a tier 2 QB. we have to look 2-3 years ahead. not "abandoning" Kaep, but they should still look hard in the next draft anyway.

I think we have different opinions on the defense. I haven't looked at the stats but I think this defense is very good and, like the 2011 D, more than capable of winning a Superbowl. Maybe not as stout in the run game and not forcing as many turnovers as 2011 but I don't know that it's a huge step down from that group and I think it's a solid step up from last year's defense. So far they have kept us in every game and if we had a mediocre offense I think we would have won every game so far with the possible exception of the Seattle game.

I also realize that the defense isn't young but I don't think they're the Bears either. The biggest concern (and question mark) is a replacement for Justin Smith but the hope (expectation?) is that Tank will be that. I think the linebackers (Willis and Brooks included) have at least 3 more years of strong play and Lemon might turn in to a player there. In the secondary we have Reid who looks good (hopefully not too injury prone) and a collection of numb-nuts that don't look very good on paper as a group and individually leave a lot to be desired, yet somehow they still pull through. We have survived with a pretty suspect secondary for 3 years now and maybe I'm naive but I really can't see them getting a whole lot worse and probably should get better with all the ammo we have in the draft. I think the defense can continue to be very strong for another 5 years or so at least. And especially with the NFL being so pass happy, if we can develop a young, strong secondary then our Defense could be ridiculously good for a long time.

It's the running game that I'm more concerned about and that is a bigger question mark for me.

And of course if there is a way to get a top tier QB (and not cripple the team) then do it. I'm just really leery of a "top tier" guy like Romo or Flacco or Cutler (I know, lulz) because while all those guys are proficient, they aren't really good enough to win in and of themselves like a Brady, Rodgers, Brees, or Manning, yet their contracts can negatively affect other units in a similar way. All the downside and none of the benefits of a truly top of the line QB.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

If he finishes this year and into the playoffs very strong. I wouldn't mind extending him after this year for 5-8 million range. That way if he tears it up 2014 which could have been his last yr on his contract had we not extended him then he would ask for a lot probably 9-20m range. So I say if he finishes strong do it after this year.

But I wouldn't be opposed to waiting till after next year.

Again all this can change depending on what our season outcome is. The numbers could be higher of course.

 

[deep9er]

I think we have different opinions on the defense. I haven't looked at the stats but I think this defense is very good and, like the 2011 D, more than capable of winning a Superbowl. Maybe not as stout in the run game and not forcing as many turnovers as 2011 but I don't know that it's a huge step down from that group and I think it's a solid step up from last year's defense. So far they have kept us in every game and if we had a mediocre offense I think we would have won every game so far with the possible exception of the Seattle game.

I also realize that the defense isn't young but I don't think they're the Bears either. The biggest concern (and question mark) is a replacement for Justin Smith but the hope (expectation?) is that Tank will be that. I think the linebackers (Willis and Brooks included) have at least 3 more years of strong play and Lemon might turn in to a player there. In the secondary we have Reid who looks good (hopefully not too injury prone) and a collection of numb-nuts that don't look very good on paper as a group and individually leave a lot to be desired, yet somehow they still pull through. We have survived with a pretty suspect secondary for 3 years now and maybe I'm naive but I really can't see them getting a whole lot worse and probably should get better with all the ammo we have in the draft. I think the defense can continue to be very strong for another 5 years or so at least. And especially with the NFL being so pass happy, if we can develop a young, strong secondary then our Defense could be ridiculously good for a long time.

It's the running game that I'm more concerned about and that is a bigger question mark for me.

And of course if there is a way to get a top tier QB (and not cripple the team) then do it. I'm just really leery of a "top tier" guy like Romo or Flacco or Cutler (I know, lulz) because while all those guys are proficient, they aren't really good enough to win in and of themselves like a Brady, Rodgers, Brees, or Manning, yet their contracts can negatively affect other units in a similar way. All the downside and none of the benefits of a truly top of the line QB.

yes, the CURRENT defense is good and not so down on them.......save the drop in run D. drop in run D from 2011 to now, not that this current run D is very bad.

but was responding to "keeping the D together" which I took to mean next season and beyond? this current group could change a lot next few seasons, and we won't be keeping them together.

 

[whysies]

I am precisely talking about keeping this group together and projecting them into the next few years. In terms of starters I see some potential turnover on the Dline and lots in the secondary, neither of which particularly scare me. Losing Justin Smith's impact is the biggest issue to me and the biggest question mark. Hopefully Tank lives up to expectations.

 

[deep9er]

I am precisely talking about keeping this group together and projecting them into the next few years. In terms of starters I see some potential turnover on the Dline and lots in the secondary, neither of which particularly scare me. Losing Justin Smith's impact is the biggest issue to me and the biggest question mark. Hopefully Tank lives up to expectations.

looks like a "few years" meaning this turnover occurs at the end of the 2015 season? or do you mean keep this group together for the 2014 season only?

I see it starting to change at the end of THIS season? not a lot just yet, but a few players on D. yeah, maybe even Justin Smith?

 

[purguy12]

We wouldn't have beaten GB with Smith at the helm, and he would have been sacked a ton by Carolina and NO and Seattle. And let's not forget how he was in the NFC Championship game when he had no receivers to throw to, just like Kaepernick now, what was he like 1 for 19 on third downs? Kaepernick is struggling (although Maiocco said he saw some good things against NO like more progressions, etc.), but Smith would have struggled as well without anyone to throw to.

We wouldn't have beat Atlanta with Smith or almost making the greatest comeback in super bowl history with Smith. I think with smith this year we would be at 6-4 or 7-3.

 

[badazzk9]

We wouldn't have beat Atlanta with Smith or almost making the greatest comeback in super bowl history with Smith. I think with smith this year we would be at 6-4 or 7-3.

Can we get off the Kap vs Smith thing. Smith was traded and the 9ers got a nice bounty. In KC Smith is 9-1.

Kap has been shit this year... I'll go a step further and say he was decent in 2012, the D, Special teams, and new system helped tremendously.

For saying Smith couldn't get it done is just retarded considering Kap couldn't get it done either. Just think the prior year Smith did this..

Highlights: 49ers 36 - Saints 32

 

[TobyTyler]

Saying "worst case, franchise him" might not work either because that's probably at least 15 (17?) million per. That's a lot of cap room to pull out of your butt, especially if the team signs people like Aldon, Crabby, and Potty.

This team has done very well with some not so high quality QB play (looking at you, Alex). Even with one of their worst passing offenses ever (looking at you, Kap), they are 6-4. I want better QB play than what we have generally had the past 3 years but I don't know that we need Aarom Rodgers or Peyton Manning level of QB play to win it all either. If they can keep the D and running game playing at a high level (a big if) then I think a middling starting QB (a Tannehill or Palmer when he was pretty good but not elite or shitty- type) would be more than enough to make us a strong contender year in and year out. That kind of player would probably cost 10-12 million per but their contract shouldn't be cap crippling. If Kap isn't that guy I have faith that Harbaugh could pick and develop that kind of player.

Ya, I would say franchising him is about the worst thing you could do. I think he's then guaranteed top 5 money for his position.

 

[TobyTyler]

I think we have different opinions on the defense. I haven't looked at the stats but I think this defense is very good and, like the 2011 D, more than capable of winning a Superbowl. Maybe not as stout in the run game and not forcing as many turnovers as 2011 but I don't know that it's a huge step down from that group and I think it's a solid step up from last year's defense. So far they have kept us in every game and if we had a mediocre offense I think we would have won every game so far with the possible exception of the Seattle game.

I also realize that the defense isn't young but I don't think they're the Bears either. The biggest concern (and question mark) is a replacement for Justin Smith but the hope (expectation?) is that Tank will be that. I think the linebackers (Willis and Brooks included) have at least 3 more years of strong play and Lemon might turn in to a player there. In the secondary we have Reid who looks good (hopefully not too injury prone) and a collection of numb-nuts that don't look very good on paper as a group and individually leave a lot to be desired, yet somehow they still pull through. We have survived with a pretty suspect secondary for 3 years now and maybe I'm naive but I really can't see them getting a whole lot worse and probably should get better with all the ammo we have in the draft. I think the defense can continue to be very strong for another 5 years or so at least. And especially with the NFL being so pass happy, if we can develop a young, strong secondary then our Defense could be ridiculously good for a long time.

It's the running game that I'm more concerned about and that is a bigger question mark for me.

And of course if there is a way to get a top tier QB (and not cripple the team) then do it. I'm just really leery of a "top tier" guy like Romo or Flacco or Cutler (I know, lulz) because while all those guys are proficient, they aren't really good enough to win in and of themselves like a Brady, Rodgers, Brees, or Manning, yet their contracts can negatively affect other units in a similar way. All the downside and none of the benefits of a truly top of the line QB.

The critical difference is that this defense cannot rush the passer. That is an absolute necessity in the 4th quarter.

 

[whysies]

looks like a "few years" meaning this turnover occurs at the end of the 2015 season? or do you mean keep this group together for the 2014 season only?

I see it starting to change at the end of THIS season? not a lot just yet, but a few players on D. yeah, maybe even Justin Smith?

Wow, I'm really not making sense here I guess. I'm sorry.

When I say a few, I'm talking like 3-5 years. This is what I'm saying:
A line of Ray Mac, a NT (hopefully someone serviceable/solid like Dorsey) and Tank
Linebackers of Aldon, Bowman, Willis, and Brooks (might have to be Lemon if we hire Sick as GM)
A secondary of Reid and other people who are at least as good as what we have now (shouldn't be too hard to assemble IMO)

Should be a good defense for the next 3 years at least. And it could be truly great if Tank really works out and we get some better corners/strong safety than the knuckleheads in our current secondary. As I said twice already, Tank is the real wild card here and my biggest point of concern. Also, I haven't said this but I would certainly want to keep Fangio.

Anyway, that defense+good running game (Lattimore hopefully, but maybe someone else. Also need the line to start playing well again)+average starting caliber QB and serviceable WRs and we are in the Superbowl mix for the next 3-5 years. I think our defense is that good and will continue to be. All the key contributors are young enough, with the possible exception of Justin.

As for Toby's pass rush point: I agree it's been disappointing overall but I expect it to pick up when Aldon picks his game up. We haven't had a ton in that department outside of him in the last 3 years anyway IMO. Hopefully Lemon also steps up and Tank is who we hope he is.

 

[Robotech]

Saying "worst case, franchise him" might not work either because that's probably at least 15 (17?) million per. That's a lot of cap room to pull out of your butt, especially if the team signs people like Aldon, Crabby, and Potty.

This team has done very well with some not so high quality QB play (looking at you, Alex). Even with one of their worst passing offenses ever (looking at you, Kap), they are 6-4. I want better QB play than what we have generally had the past 3 years but I don't know that we need Aarom Rodgers or Peyton Manning level of QB play to win it all either. If they can keep the D and running game playing at a high level (a big if) then I think a middling starting QB (a Tannehill or Palmer when he was pretty good but not elite or shitty- type) would be more than enough to make us a strong contender year in and year out. That kind of player would probably cost 10-12 million per but their contract shouldn't be cap crippling. If Kap isn't that guy I have faith that Harbaugh could pick and develop that kind of player.

I think you misunderstood what the other poster said. We wouldn't be using the franchise tag until the end of next season. Kaep's current contract runs out at the end of next season. Kaep is certainly not worth the franchise tag price right now.

 

[Robotech]

Wow, I'm really not making sense here I guess. I'm sorry.

When I say a few, I'm talking like 3-5 years. This is what I'm saying:
A line of Ray Mac, a NT (hopefully someone serviceable/solid like Dorsey) and Tank
Linebackers of Aldon, Bowman, Willis, and Brooks (might have to be Lemon if we hire Sick as GM)
A secondary of Reid and other people who are at least as good as what we have now (shouldn't be too hard to assemble IMO)

Should be a good defense for the next 3 years at least. And it could be truly great if Tank really works out and we get some better corners/strong safety than the knuckleheads in our current secondary. As I said twice already, Tank is the real wild card here and my biggest point of concern. Also, I haven't said this but I would certainly want to keep Fangio.

Anyway, that defense+good running game (Lattimore hopefully, but maybe someone else. Also need the line to start playing well again)+average starting caliber QB and serviceable WRs and we are in the Superbowl mix for the next 3-5 years. I think our defense is that good and will continue to be. All the key contributors are young enough, with the possible exception of Justin.

As for Toby's pass rush point: I agree it's been disappointing overall but I expect it to pick up when Aldon picks his game up. We haven't had a ton in that department outside of him in the last 3 years anyway IMO. Hopefully Lemon also steps up and Tank is who we hope he is.

The problem with football is that players can seemingly go downhill overnight. It's really hard to say that we should be in the Super Bowl mix for the next 3-5 years just based on who we currently have on the team. Just gotta hope that we draft well and invest money in the right players.

 

[deep9er]

The problem with football is that players can seemingly go downhill overnight. It's really hard to say that we should be in the Super Bowl mix for the next 3-5 years just based on who we currently have on the team. Just gotta hope that we draft well and invest money in the right players.

yes!

 

[whysies]

I think you misunderstood what the other poster said. We wouldn't be using the franchise tag until the end of next season. Kaep's current contract runs out at the end of next season. Kaep is certainly not worth the franchise tag price right now.

Nope, I understood. If we sign those bros how are we going to have 17 million to plop down for a QB two offseasons from now? I mean, maybe if they get real creative. Marathe is seemingly a cap genius so he could probably figure it out, it just seems like a lot of cap space to apply toward one player given all the big contracts we have now and potentially in the future.

 

[whysies]

The problem with football is that players can seemingly go downhill overnight. It's really hard to say that we should be in the Super Bowl mix for the next 3-5 years just based on who we currently have on the team. Just gotta hope that we draft well and invest money in the right players.

True. Or players could implode (Aldon? Brooks?). Or players could get injured. But given what is foreseeable now I would be fine with continuing to supplement the nucleus of the defense and running game and adding a simply competent, not cap-crushing QB.

I think the real formula to winning in the NFL these days is get an elite QB and hope the rest of the team is proficient enough to not get in his way while he leads you to the Superbowl. But there's a short list of those guys and we would have to be really lucky to find one (and I hope Kap turns into one and really thought he was on that path but he makes me less optimistic by the week).

The real danger to me is paying a bunch of money to a guy like Kap (or any of the QBs below that elite tier who are just good enough to be highly paid but not good enough to carry their team).

 

[deep9er]

Wow, I'm really not making sense here I guess. I'm sorry.

When I say a few, I'm talking like 3-5 years. This is what I'm saying:
A line of Ray Mac, a NT (hopefully someone serviceable/solid like Dorsey) and Tank
Linebackers of Aldon, Bowman, Willis, and Brooks (might have to be Lemon if we hire Sick as GM)
A secondary of Reid and other people who are at least as good as what we have now (shouldn't be too hard to assemble IMO)

Should be a good defense for the next 3 years at least. And it could be truly great if Tank really works out and we get some better corners/strong safety than the knuckleheads in our current secondary. As I said twice already, Tank is the real wild card here and my biggest point of concern. Also, I haven't said this but I would certainly want to keep Fangio.

Anyway, that defense+good running game (Lattimore hopefully, but maybe someone else. Also need the line to start playing well again)+average starting caliber QB and serviceable WRs and we are in the Superbowl mix for the next 3-5 years. I think our defense is that good and will continue to be. All the key contributors are young enough, with the possible exception of Justin.

As for Toby's pass rush point: I agree it's been disappointing overall but I expect it to pick up when Aldon picks his game up. We haven't had a ton in that department outside of him in the last 3 years anyway IMO. Hopefully Lemon also steps up and Tank is who we hope he is.

it could very well be i'm not getting it? either way, mahalo for the above clarification of 3-5 years.

consider in just 3 years McDonald, Willis, and Brooks will be up there by NFL age? not that they'll be useless, but odds are not in their peak years? most of the other starters now will be gone. think you're underestimating the turnover within just 3 years, not 5?

anyway, just my opinion and if i'm reading you wrong, my bad.

 

[deep9er]

True. Or players could implode (Aldon? Brooks?). Or players could get injured. But given what is foreseeable now I would be fine with continuing to supplement the nucleus of the defense and running game and adding a simply competent, not cap-crushing QB.

I think the real formula to winning in the NFL these days is get an elite QB and hope the rest of the team is proficient enough to not get in his way while he leads you to the Superbowl. But there's a short list of those guys and we would have to be really lucky to find one (and I hope Kap turns into one and really thought he was on that path but he makes me less optimistic by the week).

The real danger to me is paying a bunch of money to a guy like Kap (or any of the QBs below that elite tier who are just good enough to be highly paid but not good enough to carry their team).[/QUOTE]

every NFL teams fear, but most team have to keep trying. there will be more misses than hits, but you have to keep trying.

 

[whysies]

it could very well be i'm not getting it? either way, mahalo for the above clarification of 3-5 years.

consider in just 3 years McDonald, Willis, and Brooks will be up there by NFL age? not that they'll be useless, but odds are not in their peak years? most of the other starters now will be gone. think you're underestimating the turnover within just 3 years, not 5?

anyway, just my opinion and if i'm reading you wrong, my bad.

I think in 3 years we will have two new CBs, one new safety, Brooks will be gone, and probably a new NT and replacement for Ray. You're right that I'm only projecting 4 (maybe 5) of our current starters to still be on the team.

But...not too worried about the secondary, we don't have a very good one right now and we still have good results. I don't know if its scheme or what but the unit as a whole does well even if the constituent parts are lacking. As for Brooks leaving, Sick tells me Lemon is good so not too worried there. Again, the Dline is key (especially a replacement for Justin because it seems like he is the lynchpin of the D). Lots of defensive linemen play for a long time so I don't think it's totally out of the question for Ray to still be here and playing at a solid level. Even if we do have to replace him I think we can find someone. He's good, but not irreplaceable IMO. And then at NT we have been plugging and playing guys for a while now and they have been fine. Again, not sure if that's just the scheme or what.

The linebackers are the key to me and I think all those guys (with the possible exception of Brooks) can play at a high level for a long time yet.

Anyway sorry to keep writing long posts about my thoughts on the D, I'm sure everyone else is getting sick of it so I'll stop.

 

[TobyTyler]

I think in 3 years we will have two new CBs, one new safety, Brooks will be gone, and probably a new NT and replacement for Ray. You're right that I'm only projecting 4 (maybe 5) of our current starters to still be on the team.

But...not too worried about the secondary, we don't have a very good one right now and we still have good results. I don't know if its scheme or what but the unit as a whole does well even if the constituent parts are lacking. As for Brooks leaving, Sick tells me Lemon is good so not too worried there. Again, the Dline is key (especially a replacement for Justin because it seems like he is the lynchpin of the D). Lots of defensive linemen play for a long time so I don't think it's totally out of the question for Ray to still be here and playing at a solid level. Even if we do have to replace him I think we can find someone. He's good, but not irreplaceable IMO. And then at NT we have been plugging and playing guys for a while now and they have been fine. Again, not sure if that's just the scheme or what.

The linebackers are the key to me and I think all those guys (with the possible exception of Brooks) can play at a high level for a long time yet.

Anyway sorry to keep writing long posts about my thoughts on the D, I'm sure everyone else is getting sick of it so I'll stop.

I disagree with that somewhat, with the exception of Smith, because I don't think its about stopping the run anymore in the NFL, its about pressuring and sacking the passer.

 

[deep9er]

I disagree with that somewhat, with the exception of Smith, because I don't think its about stopping the run anymore in the NFL, its about pressuring and sacking the passer.

yep, it is about the pass nowadays, and it'll trend even more as the QB becomes "untouchable". it isn't about 'athletic' QB's, its still and more so........quality passers.

the NFL won't relax the rules on hitting the QB, but to give defenses some chance to defend, maybe they relax the 5 yard coverage rule? maybe they relax the calls for pass interference?