Kaep wants a new start

[ATL96Steeler]

Kaep needs a fresh start. He needs the right coaching and offense around him, not some templated college scheme that's already failed in the NFL.

Here goes Chip Kelly again, jettisoning the talent.

Yeah, but where?

Kaep is more perplexing than RG3...both will need a good QB coach and a HC that believes in them. But...if the college ranks can supply a talent that will be just as effective...CLE, SF, STL etc...financially it makes sense to go with the rookie.

So that leaves the teams like HOU, NYJ...not many starting job out there... I see RG3 maybe going to the Jets or Hou and Kaep staying in SF or maybe STL

 

[ATL96Steeler]

All great points. I think the Jets pony up the cash. Fitz will have bargaining power because there just aren't a lot of better options for the Jets if he goes somewhere else. Bradford? Cousins? You could argue those are upgrades, but I'm not really sure. After that, it's nothing but downhill on the FA market.

Bolstered by a great DEF...he played so so when it mattered the most...where else can Fitz start aside from NY?

This will be an interesting offseason...

NO...they must re-work Brees CH, or die.
PHI...Bradford reportedly wants a ton of cash....again...Does he make sense in HOU?
WAS...the will pay Cousins...overpay, but is it really overpaying? Few QBs offer much value.

 

[ducky]

So that leaves the teams like HOU, NYJ...not many starting job out there... I see RG3 maybe going to the Jets or Hou and Kaep staying in SF or maybe STL

Is Kaep going back to baseball and the Cub's traded his rights to the Card's?

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Is Kaep going back to baseball and the Cub's traded his rights to the Card's?

Got me again...duh...won't be the last I'm sure.lol

 

[SJ76]

If he goes to the Jets, the Rams need to figure out a way to get Bryce Petty

 

[ducky]

NO...they must re-work Brees CH, or die.

Loomis should be kicked out of the NFL for the incompetence he has displayed the last couple of years.

With the cap exploding, he still has managed to cap out a team that has won 7 games in each of the last two seasons. And what is worse he is actually pushing money forward into future years where they are going to be cap sensitive for years to come.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Loomis should be kicked out of the NFL for the incompetence he has displayed the last couple of years.

With the cap exploding, he still has managed to cap out a team that has won 7 games in each of the last two seasons. And what is worse he is actually pushing money forward into future years where they are going to be cap sensitive for years to come.

Yep...they HAD to get rid of Graham...no choice...fortunate to find a team willing to take on that deal. Brees probably gets spread out, but they will have to add new money to the deal... no way will he settle for $15 mil per over two seasons...Maybe they add $10 mil to it and he plays under a $20 mil cap hit for '16 and '17 then ride off into the sunset.

 

[SonnyCID]

Yep...they HAD to get rid of Graham...no choice...fortunate to find a team willing to take on that deal. Brees probably gets spread out, but they will have to add new money to the deal... no way will he settle for $15 mil per over two seasons...Maybe they add $10 mil to it and he plays under a $20 mil cap hit for '16 and '17 then ride off into the sunset.

Really, I doubt it was that tough. The Saints were still on the hook for his signing bonus so he still counted for 9 mil against their cap last year, giving them only a cap savings of 2 mil. And since there is now no more signing bonus, he has no dead money for the remainder of his contract. 5 mil salary for last year, with no long term commitment at all after that is what the Hawks got.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Really, I doubt it was that tough. The Saints were still on the hook for his signing bonus so he still counted for 9 mil against their cap last year, giving them only a cap savings of 2 mil. And since there is now no more signing bonus, he has no dead money for the remainder of his contract. 5 mil salary for last year, with no long term commitment at all after that is what the Hawks got.

They're projecting what, +5 mil right now with the '16 contracts they have in NO?...I didn't say thecontract was toxic..but explain to me how they were going to stomach his $9 mil '16 ch?

 

[SonnyCID]

They're projecting what, +5 mil right now with the '16 contracts they have in NO?...I didn't say thecontract was toxic..but explain to me how they were going to stomach his $9 mil '16 ch?

Oh, it was the right move for the Saints, even though it was a painful pill for them to swallow last year, cap wise.

I just didn't agree that they were fortunate to find a trade partner willing to take on his contract. The Saints souped up the contract to be very friendly for the recipient team.

 

[ducky]

Really, I doubt it was that tough. The Saints were still on the hook for his signing bonus so he still counted for 9 mil against their cap last year, giving them only a cap savings of 2 mil. And since there is now no more signing bonus, he has no dead money for the remainder of his contract. 5 mil salary for last year, with no long term commitment at all after that is what the Hawks got.

....and the Saints took on the Unger contract and immediately restructured and pushed his cap hit into this season. So in essence there was really no true cap savings in 2015 or 2016 for the Saints because of that move. The only meaningful savings comes in 2017 but that is only actualized if they let Unger walk away in FA.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Oh, it was the right move for the Saints, even though it was a painful pill for them to swallow last year, cap wise.

I just didn't agree that they were fortunate to find a trade partner willing to take on his contract. The Saints souped up the contract to be very friendly for the recipient team.

NFL...how many high profile player trades? Sure, a lot of teams would line up for Graham but not many could fit his CH....3 or 4 mil is all teams normal have spare.

I'm not trying to say SEA took on bad goods or anything...lol...my emphasis is on the state of the Saints.

 

[cdumler7]

The QB contracts this offseason are going to be probably the most interesting to watch. Fitz, Cousins, Osweiller. What the hell does the agent offer? And does any of the franchises they are playing for have the guts to say no to outrageous demands and move on especially with the Ram's and Texans lurking in the background.

I bet you anything that Fitz's agent asks the Jet's for a 3 year $40M+ deal with most of year 2 in guaranteed money. And Cousin's agent is probably going to be asking for $100M deal.

That Foles contract really upped the ante for starting QB contracts especially if you are an average QB.

Foles' contract though could also drive the contract price down though with how terrible he did. Very few FA QB's have done well going to another team. Manning obviously worked out for the Broncos but then you have this very long list of guys like Foles, Bradford, Cassel, and many others who just tanked after they got a decent to big contract. I do think there is more hesitation to give these guys such huge contracts possibly crippling your team for a few years.

 

[ducky]

Foles' contract though could also drive the contract price down though with how terrible he did. Very few FA QB's have done well going to another team. Manning obviously worked out for the Broncos but then you have this very long list of guys like Foles, Bradford, Cassel, and many others who just tanked after they got a decent to big contract. I do think there is more hesitation to give these guys such huge contracts possibly crippling your team for a few years.

I disagree.

A completely unproven commodity in Foles was handed a 2 year $24M contract to start at QB. How he performed really is irrelevant. It really did set the market a lot higher than it used to be.

No chance Osweiler makes a penny less than that in his first 2 years. His agent would have to be a fool not to get more than that deal. Cousins will get WAY more (Cousins will get more than the Kaep contract in fact....why I think he plays one year under the franchise tag).

Market value for players has little to do with how players actually perform after they sign. It is all about what they were before they signed. If market values lowered when players didn't live up to their contracts, NFL player's would all be making fast food wages because it is rare that a player actually performs as well as the contract they are playing under. That really is the nature of 2nd and 3rd contracts in the NFL (and baseball too....NBA not so much).

And these QB's really hold the upper hand at the negotiating table. What are the Broncos and Redskins to do? Say no? If they say no, the Rams or the Texans (maybe even the Browns) will just jump in and say yes. If fact they would jump for joy at the idea of paying those guys the amounts we are talking about.

 

[cdumler7]

I disagree.

A completely unproven commodity in Foles was handed a 2 year $24M contract to start at QB. How he performed really is irrelevant. It really did set the market a lot higher than it used to be.

No chance Osweiler makes a penny less than that in his first 2 years. His agent would have to be a fool not to get more than that deal. Cousins will get WAY more (Cousins will get more than the Kaep contract in fact....why I think he plays one year under the franchise tag).

Market value for players has little to do with how players actually perform after they sign. It is all about what they were before they signed. If market values lowered when players didn't live up to their contracts, NFL player's would all be making fast food wages because it is rare that a player actually performs as well as the contract they are playing under. That really is the nature of 2nd and 3rd contracts in the NFL (and baseball too....NBA not so much).

I would be willing to do an Avi bet that Osweiler gets at or less than what Foles got per year on his deal. We are talking about a guy that had 7 starts and while he showed promise he still didn't put up huge stats. Foles on the other hand had that incredible season in 2013 that gave teams a thought that maybe this guy could be something special. He also has played in 39 games compared to just the 7 for Osweiler.

My thought with what the Broncos will do is actually similar to that of Kaepernick of put very little in actual guaranteed money and make a lot of the contract be based on incentives. It benefits the player as they can make huge money if they perform well and takes some of the risk off the team if they fail. The player pretty much is betting on themselves to perform above what some think they will. Talk in Denver is that the Broncos and Osweiler's agent are actually somewhere in the $10-11 million a year area. That puts him at the amount of right where he finished QB Rating wise then offer escalators in the contract say he makes a Pro Bowl he gets an extra $2 million and if the team makes the Super Bowl he gets another $2 million. The Broncos just did this with Manning this past season so not out in left field to think they try to do it with Osweiler. Helps them Cap Wise and gives Osweiler a chance to maybe go from 20th highest paid QB to 10th or so depending on the escalators.

 

[SonnyCID]

NFL...how many high profile player trades? Sure, a lot of teams would line up for Graham but not many could fit his CH....3 or 4 mil is all teams normal have spare.

I'm not trying to say SEA took on bad goods or anything...lol...my emphasis is on the state of the Saints.

Teams usually only have around 3-4 to spare in late August once their roster has been put together, after free agent signings, draft picks, extensions, and all that mess. But in early March, there are a lot of teams that either have open space, or could clear the space if they wanted to if in dire straits.

 

[ducky]

I would be willing to do an Avi bet that Osweiler gets at or less than what Foles got per year on his deal. We are talking about a guy that had 7 starts and while he showed promise he still didn't put up huge stats. Foles on the other hand had that incredible season in 2013 that gave teams a thought that maybe this guy could be something special. He also has played in 39 games compared to just the 7 for Osweiler.

My thought with what the Broncos will do is actually similar to that of Kaepernick of put very little in actual guaranteed money and make a lot of the contract be based on incentives. It benefits the player as they can make huge money if they perform well and takes some of the risk off the team if they fail. The player pretty much is betting on themselves to perform above what some think they will. Talk in Denver is that the Broncos and Osweiler's agent are actually somewhere in the $10-11 million a year area. That puts him at the amount of right where he finished QB Rating wise then offer escalators in the contract say he makes a Pro Bowl he gets an extra $2 million and if the team makes the Super Bowl he gets another $2 million. The Broncos just did this with Manning this past season so not out in left field to think they try to do it with Osweiler. Helps them Cap Wise and gives Osweiler a chance to maybe go from 20th highest paid QB to 10th or so depending on the escalators.

Let me ask you this: Do you think the LA Rams (weird), with what are essentially a coach and GM that have one year to make the playoffs or get fired, would hesitate to give Osweiller a 2 year contract for $24M rather than draft a rookie knowing that this class of rookies are not game ready? And remember the Ram's are $40M below the salary cap.

Then think if you are John Elway and you have a SB roster that got some of the worst QB play this last season. Do you go big time in on Osweiller...or do you change paths and steal away Fitzpatrick from the Jet's for the same 2 year $24M contract and take a QB to develop again?

Like I said: None of these teams have any leverage in these situations. The QB's can't be tagged in anyway (just not worth it). So they get to talk with every team including the QB-less Rams and Texans who both are very determined to win this coming season.

The only way any of these guys sign for less than 2 year $24M IMO is if the agents screw up and takes contracts before FA starts. Because once FA starts and they are able to take bids from all the teams that need a QB, 2 years $24M isn't even the starting point anymore....it is much more than that.

But money might not be the determining factor for any of these guys too. Maybe Osweiller is willing to settle for million upon millions less to play in Denvr rather than LA. Maybe Fitz is willing to settle for millions less to play in NY than Denver or Houston. But if each agent goes out and tries to max value their client's contract, they'll beat out the Foles contract quite handily IMO.

The long and short of it is that this offseason is a game of musical chairs and there are 5 or 6 teams that want 3 or 4 QB's. Someone is going to be left out when the music stops and that fear is going to drive the prices of these guys up because in all but the Elway situation being left out when the music stops probably means an eventual trip to the unemployment line in a lot of these places.

 

[cdumler7]

Let me ask you this: Do you think the LA Rams (weird), with what are essentially a coach and GM that have one year to make the playoffs or get fired, would hesitate to give Osweiller a 2 year contract for $24M rather than draft a rookie knowing that this class of rookies are not game ready? And remember the Ram's are $40M below the salary cap.

Then think if you are John Elway and you have a SB roster that got some of the worst QB play this last season. Do you go big time in on Osweiller...or do you change paths and steal away Fitzpatrick from the Jet's for the same 2 year $24M contract and take a QB to develop again?

Like I said: None of these teams have any leverage in these situations. The QB's can't be tagged in anyway (just not worth it). So they get to talk with every team including the QB-less Rams and Texans who both are very determined to win this coming season.

The only way any of these guys sign for less than 2 year $24M IMO is if the agents screw up and takes contracts before FA starts. Because once FA starts and they are able to take bids from all the teams that need a QB, 2 years $24M isn't even the starting point anymore....it is much more than that.

But money might not be the determining factor for any of these guys too. Maybe Osweiller is willing to settle for million upon millions less to play in Denvr rather than LA. Maybe Fitz is willing to settle for millions less to play in NY than Denver or Houston. But if each agent goes out and tries to max value their client's contract, they'll beat out the Foles contract quite handily IMO.

The long and short of it is that this offseason is a game of musical chairs and there are 5 or 6 teams that want 3 or 4 QB's. Someone is going to be left out when the music stops and that fear is going to drive the prices of these guys up because in all but the Elway situation being left out when the music stops probably means an eventual trip to the unemployment line in a lot of these places.

I get what you are saying. Every year though they say there is this huge shortage of QB's in the NFL and so far I haven't really seen this huge bidding war for these FA QB's. At this time of the year everybody is talking about it but it seems by the time it gets closer to FA the contracts are not quite what you expected. I guess we will just have to see. Like I said my numbers are coming from rumors being heard around Denver of what to expect him to get contract wise. If he remained the starter and the team made it to where they are now yeah I would be thinking the Contract would maybe be closer to Matthew Stafford type money per year. Because he got benched and again there are only 7 actual games of any kind of tape on the kid and in those games was average QB play I just can't see teams going crazy to get this kid and sign him to a huge contract. To me they will say this kid has been in the league for 4-years and when he got his shot he was an average QB. So why pay him big bucks when they can draft a kid while getting an average veteran for mediocre money? Throw in yes I do think he would be willing to take less with the Broncos than any other team. He loves Denver and actually has a great relationship with the Elway family as his best friend in college was Jack Elway John Elway's son. I guess we will find out all of this soon enough though. I could definitely be way off in my thinking but when looking at other contracts of FA QB's in somewhat similar situations and what I am hearing from the rumor mill I just don't think it will be any more than what Foles got.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Teams usually only have around 3-4 to spare in late August once their roster has been put together, after free agent signings, draft picks, extensions, and all that mess. But in early March, there are a lot of teams that either have open space, or could clear the space if they wanted to if in dire straits.

Maybe that expands the pool by 2...we're still not talking about a lot of teams having the means, and opportunity to make that trade without cutting some key pcs.

 

[ducky]

I get what you are saying. Every year though they say there is this huge shortage of QB's in the NFL and so far I haven't really seen this huge bidding war for these FA QB's.

I don't think we have ever seen a FA class of QB's like this before. At least not in a long, long time. That is what is going to make it so interesting.

The last couple of years the best QB on the open market has been:
2015: Josh McCown (Lol...back to back years)
2014: Josh McCown
2013: Matt Hasselback/Matt Moore
2012: Payton Manning....but after that it was Matt Flynn
2011: Mike Vick/Matt Hasselback

In the past 5 years for the most part, teams have had to give up draft picks to go get QB's. These guys have the potential to come draft pick free. Although I still think Wash ends up tagging Cousins and that does change the look of this FA class pretty radically when it happens.

A good thing to think about when thinking of the Osweiler contract is that 4 years ago Matt Flynn, a guy who had started 2 NFL games up to that point, got a 3 year $26M contract.