It's getting old

[wartyOne]

Pedestrian is about the nicest thing you guys have said about Smith in this thread.

I said this was his best year.

The thing is, I don't expect more than this level of play out of him, and I think we'll need it to compete for the SB for the next 5-10 years.

 

[mysfit]

Pedestrian is about the nicest thing you guys have said about Smith in this thread.

Two words

Red
Zone

 

[clyde_carbon]

And to say that Alex will not throw more than 17 TDs next season...in 16 games is just as foolish.

I don't think it would be hard for Kap to equal or better Smiths TD count next season...but I think it would be even easier for him to triple the number of turnovers. I think Kap has a bright future with the 49ers, but not this season. We'll see what happens in camp, if Kap wins the position GREAT...then we have the better of the two starting.

You and everyone else arguing this think that Smith will not improve...in fact get worse because, "...he will throw more INTs..." You keep quoting 17 TDs in almost Cazic like fashion and almost directly suggest that Smith will not do any better.

Hypothetically:
If Smith throws 24 TDs and 10 turnovers, but Kap throws 25 TDs and has 18 turnovers...who do you want?

Why is it foolish? In 7 years Alex has not thrown more than 18 TDs in a season. Last year, the year everyone says he was most improved, he actually averaged LESS yards and LESS TDs per game than he did the year before under Singletary.

Kap could triple Alex's INTs, but I doubt it. Harbaugh is not gonna let him take enough chances to throw that many INTs. Like I've said repeatedly, Harbaugh is gonna baby whomever is at QB, whether it's Alex or Kap. I'd just rather him baby the younger guy with much more potential that comes way cheaper.

And that's a ridiculous hypthetical. Alex averaged 1.1 TDs per game last year. I think Kap averages 1.8. That alone puts him at 29 passing TDs. I also think he'll dwarf Alex's rushing yards and TDs. I'll give you the 18 INTs for Kap and the 25 TDs for Alex.

Alex: 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 3200 yards, 1 rushing TD.
Kap: 29 TDs, 18 INTs, 3600 yards, 5 rushing TDs.

Who are you taking considering Alex is gonna come at about 9mil per year while Kap is coming in at 3?

 

[Bracus]

Agree with OP 100%. After seeing what Harbaugh did with a QB he was stuck with, imagine what he can do with the guy he picked. He picked him for a reason and they want Alex to take less years in a contract for a reason. Whether or not the people here like him, he will be our starting QB soon. I'm not as impressed with Alex as most people. Until he's willing to take risks instead of a bunch of 8 yrd passes, you guys shouldn't be believing he's our future.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

In 7 years Alex has not thrown more than 18 TDs in a season.

What a ridiculously dishonest way to frame it. He's played 3 full seasons.

Kap could triple Alex's INTs, but I doubt it.

He could easily quadruple it. Elite QB Eli Manning threw 5x as many two years ago.

 

[clyde_carbon]

What a ridiculously dishonest way to frame it. He's played 3 full seasons.



He could easily quadruple it. Elite QB Eli Manning threw 5x as many two years ago.

Because he was either pulled because of bad play, or injury. What's your point?

And he could easily just double it. I like this game.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

OK cazic.

Peyton Manning threw 17 INTs his last season....you "doubt" Kap is even gonna throw that many. Your thought processes are absolutely fascinating.

 

[Jikkle]

i have looked and even if we both agree it is still just an assumption on our part. I have read articles from the press that stated Alex looks more impressive and confident in practices but he is a different guy when it counts. So how much of his conservative play can you blame on his fears of making mistakes and hearing the Boo Birds?

I'm not trying imply he doesn't miss plays or checks down too quickly but my point was we don't run an explosive offense like a Green Bay, Saints, or Detroit so it's not a completely fair comparison to stack up his stats against a Rodgers, Brees, or Stafford.

Of course that's not to imply he's on the level of those QBs or he would be wildly successful if we opened up the playbook but if we run a designed WR screen on 3rd and long I can't go "Oh another check down for Smith" or "Another failed 3rd down conversion by Smith".

My larger point in all of this is it seems that people are trying to make this a black and white issue in that he either sucks or he would be good if he had this, this, and this when it's just a little of both.

We went 13-3 largely on the back of our defense but Smith was also a part of that and we didn't get to where we were despite what Smith did but partly because of what he did do.

The Saints game was a perfect example of this. The defense picked up the offense when it was struggling and when the defense struggled at the end the offense picked them up and because of both their efforts the game was won.

 

[clyde_carbon]

OK cazic.

Peyton Manning threw 17 INTs his last season....you "doubt" Kap is even gonna throw that many. Your thought processes are absolutely fascinating.

Because Harbaugh isn't gonna let Kap throw it for 34 times a game.

WTF are you not understanding about that?

 

[imac_21]

I think its a lot more difficult for a QB who played at Podunk U, in a bush league conference, in a gimmick offense to be successful than it would be for a Tackle or Guard. Count me in the group who is very skeptical of Kaepernick.

Iguana last week posted the percentage of second round QBs to make it as starters in the NFL.

How do you think that compares to undrafted rookie free agent DL and OL?

 

[imac_21]

And I seem to remember an O-line that was overall ranked #26... since we are talking stats...one that was #8 for sacks allowed

Top 10 2011 NFL Teams With The Most Sacks Allowed on Pikimal

What's interesting is the only two teams with winning records in that list are SF and PITT.

Smith played decent. His limiting of turnovers was clearly good. His lack of TDs was not good. His late game heroics was good. He was good with Davis, bad with Crabtree.

That's special. The comment I was replying to was the one that said our OL took a lot of penalties. Tried to stay on topic.

How did KC Joyner rank our OL? How about Football Outsiders? How did the line play progress (improve or regress) throughout the season?

 

[SY8goat]

I would think an increase in turnovers would lead to an increase to pass attempts. After making this table, that is not the case.

() = pass attempts
[] = ranking in attempts per game
bold = franchise QBs

Top 5 NFC teams in Turnover differential
SF: +28 (28.2) [rk 31]
GB: +24 (34.5) [rk 14]
NE:+17 (38.2) [rk 3]
SEA:+8 (31.8)[rk 25]
ATL:+8 (37.1)[rk 4]

Bottom 5 NFL teams in turnover differential.
TB:-16 (36.8) [rk 7]
PHIL:-14 (34.6) [rk 13]
WASH:-14 (36.9) [rk 5]
ARI:-13 (34.4) [rk 15]
PIT:-13 (33.7) [rk 19]

 

[imac_21]

I would think an increase in turnovers would lead to an increase to pass attempts. After making this table, that is not the case.

() = pass attempts
[] = ranking in attempts per game
bold = franchise QBs

Top 5 NFC teams in Turnover differential
SF: +28 (28.2) [rk 31]
GB: +24 (34.5) [rk 14]
NE:+17 (38.2) [rk 3]
SEA:+8 (31.8)[rk 25]
ATL:+8 (37.1)[rk 4]

Bottom 5 NFL teams in turnover differential.
TB:-16 (36.8) [rk 7]
PHIL:-14 (34.6) [rk 13]
WASH:-14 (36.9) [rk 5]
ARI:-13 (34.4) [rk 15]
PIT:-13 (33.7) [rk 19]

The only adjustment I would make is that this is turnover differential, which is impacted by the turnovers your defense creates as well as fumbles.

If you want to look at the impact pass attempts has on INT, then just look at INT - not TO differential.

I think the rate of INT would be more closely linked to how far a pass travels in the air (not yards per attempt as we know it now, but the average distance a pass travels in the air, accounting for yards traveled by incompletions and discounting for YAC.

 

[Southern9er]

Why is it foolish? In 7 years Alex has not thrown more than 18 TDs in a season. Last year, the year everyone says he was most improved, he actually averaged LESS yards and LESS TDs per game than he did the year before under Singletary.

Kap could triple Alex's INTs, but I doubt it. Harbaugh is not gonna let him take enough chances to throw that many INTs. Like I've said repeatedly, Harbaugh is gonna baby whomever is at QB, whether it's Alex or Kap. I'd just rather him baby the younger guy with much more potential that comes way cheaper.

And that's a ridiculous hypthetical. Alex averaged 1.1 TDs per game last year. I think Kap averages 1.8. That alone puts him at 29 passing TDs. I also think he'll dwarf Alex's rushing yards and TDs. I'll give you the 18 INTs for Kap and the 25 TDs for Alex.

Alex: 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 3200 yards, 1 rushing TD.
Kap: 29 TDs, 18 INTs, 3600 yards, 5 rushing TDs.

Who are you taking considering Alex is gonna come at about 9mil per year while Kap is coming in at 3?

Because he improved so much last year and he will continue to build on that with Harbaugh...is it really that hard to understand? I'm not saying he was great, he's been a reclamation project since Nolan arrived...baby steps and Harbaugh put the first piece in place getting him confidence. Smith for the first time in his 7 years playing has coaches that didn't come from the "land of misfit toys" and know how to coach a QB, ...how to coach the position.

It's not a ridiculous hypothetical. I disagree with your revised premise that Kap will get 29 TDs with only 18 INTs or the fact that he is a better runner...they are both good in that department. The point was to illustrate the importance of turnovers...so I'll take the one that gets us to the playoffs again. I was NOT suggesting that Smith will only get 24 TDs...I think Smith will do worlds better next season.

There's no need to argue this; what happens in the off-season will determine who deserves to start. I'm not sure how a WAC QB will do in the NFL...not making any claims...just a concern.

 

[wartyOne]

Because he improved so much last year andPOINT 1 he will continue to build on that with Harbaugh...is it really that hard to understand? I'm not saying he was great, he's been a reclamation project since Nolan arrived...baby steps and Harbaugh put the first piece in place getting him confidence. Smith for the first time in his 7 years playing has coaches that didn't come from the "land of misfit toys" and know how to coach a QB, ...how to coach the position.

It's not a ridiculous hypothetical. I disagree with your revised premise that Kap will get 29 TDs with only 18 INTs or the fact that he is a better runner...they are both good in that department. The point was to illustrate the importance of turnovers...so I'll take the one that gets us to the playoffs again. I was NOT suggesting that Smith will only get 24 TDs...I think Smith will do worlds better next season.

There's no need to argue this; what happens in the off-season will determine who deserves to start.POINT 2 I'm not sure how a WAC QB will do in the NFL...not making any claims...just a concern.

POINT 1: He might improve. There's no guarantee of that. I personally think he's plateaued.

POINT 2: As opposed to the legions of MWC QB's that are tearing up the NFL? Technically, Steve Young was a WAC QB. As was Jim McMahon.

I do, however, love the reference to the land of the misfit toys. Awesome.

 

[Southern9er]

That's special. The comment I was replying to was the one that said our OL took a lot of penalties. Tried to stay on topic.

How did KC Joyner rank our OL? How about Football Outsiders? How did the line play progress (improve or regress) throughout the season?

And he said a lot more about the O-line than just penalties, that's what I was replying to, here's what he said:

our offensive line was not one of the better ones in the nfc. at one point early in the year everyone was saying gore was washed up. then the blocking was adjusted and holes started to open up. our line had tons of penalties and ranked pretty low on pass protection. so don't give me our line is good when it clearly wasn't. why did staley get his underwear in a knot when the line was called out?

Not sure, why don't you tell me about Joyner's ranking as long as its objective and empirically based. Same with Football Outsiders.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

The season is 16 games, it all counts. Pass blocking did not improve, run blocking did...but that is my subjective opinion, would have to verify that.

 

[longbeach 49er]

CK's physical ability is on par with Cam Newton. He may not be ready to be a franchise QB but he's certainly ready for coach Harbaugh to babysit through a season while he gets his feet wet. Alex Smith is very replaceable.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Because he improved so much last year and he will continue to build on that with Harbaugh...is it really that hard to understand? I'm not saying he was great, he's been a reclamation project since Nolan arrived...baby steps and Harbaugh put the first piece in place getting him confidence. Smith for the first time in his 7 years playing has coaches that didn't come from the "land of misfit toys" and know how to coach a QB, ...how to coach the position.

It's not a ridiculous hypothetical. I disagree with your revised premise that Kap will get 29 TDs with only 18 INTs or the fact that he is a better runner...they are both good in that department. The point was to illustrate the importance of turnovers...so I'll take the one that gets us to the playoffs again. I was NOT suggesting that Smith will only get 24 TDs...I think Smith will do worlds better next season.

There's no need to argue this; what happens in the off-season will determine who deserves to start. I'm not sure how a WAC QB will do in the NFL...not making any claims...just a concern.

There you go exaggerating his improvement again. Improved so much? Really? He protected the ball much better. That's as far as his improvement goes. Like I've said repeatedly, he averaged less yards per game and less TDs per game with Harbaugh than he did with Singletary. He also had a worse 3rd down and Red Zone percentages with Harbaugh than he did under Singletary. How the fuck is that "improved so much"? Even if you don't look at the raw numbers, he still displayed little control of the LOS, still didn't take many chances with the football, and still broke down consistently when he was asked to create on his own. All hallmarks of a stopgap QB that's not fit to be a consistent starter in the NFL. I have no idea why that's so hard for you to admit.

It is a ridiculous hypethotical. 18 INTs would put Kaepernick in the top-5 in INTs. Do you think that's possible when he's not gonna be asked to pass the ball more than 28 times per game? All of the guys that were top-5 in INTs in 2011 averaged more than 35 attempts per game.

I love how you simplified it to simply saying that both Alex and CK are "good" at running the football. Kaepernick ran for 1000+ yards each of his last 3 years at Nevada. In 2010 he had 20 rushing TDs, in 2009 he had 16, and in 2008 he had 17. He also ran a faster 40 than both Cam Newton and Jake Locker at the combine, who are both much bigger running threats than Alex ever was. Sorry, but as a runner CK is gonna be in a completely different class than Alex.

So you're holding playing in the WAC against CK? Playing in the MWC hasn't deterred you from climbing all over Alex's nuts.

 

[clyde_carbon]

CK's physical ability is on par with Cam Newton. He may not be ready to be a franchise QB but he's certainly ready for coach Harbaugh to babysit through a season while he gets his feet wet. Alex Smith is very replaceable.

Exactly. Harbaugh is gonna baby the starting QB with a fishnet offense regardless who's starting. Both of them are most likely gonna be at the bottom of the league in attempts. Why not use this season, while we rely on defense, running, and special teams, to see what Kap offers? At the very least he's gonna be a bigger running threat than Alex, and his big arm might utilize guys like Moss and Manningham vertically better.

I don't understand why moving on from Alex is so fucking hard for some people. Jesus.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

CK is certainly ready? Awesome news.

So how are you guys watching the practices? Closed-circuit cams set up?