I think it's a mistake to go into "reload" mode

[NinerSickness]

We can make a run at Williams if we let Carlos and Brooks walk. Check my last post in the off-season thread to see how.

Then they should let Carlos & Goldston walk, because a player of Mario's caliber not getting a franchise tag is ridiculous. And it's the pass rush that makes the DBs not the other way around.

I love Carlos; I was upset when the Niners only signed hom to a 1 year deal because I wanted at least 3. But as the Giants are proving: you can't have too many pass rushers.

Mario could play both OLB and DE with equal ferocity.

 

[NinerSickness]

The Niners are not as talented as I think they are? You are full of shit. Simple as that. This IS a talented team. This is a SB contender.

I know the Niners are a SB contender. But they're not one of the 4 most talented teams in the NFL. That means their chances of winning a SB are pretty small next year. It doens't mean it won't happen, but it means they should keep building until they're one of the 3 or 4 most talented teams. Short-sided next-year-or-bust thinking would be a wasted opprotunity to build a winner for a long time.

It doesn't have to be trading Justin, and it doesn't have to be signing Mario. It just needs to be planning for the long term over the short term.

It does, however, need to be Kaepernick over Alex.

 

[Flyingiguana]

there's no point signing mario and then going with a 1st year unproven starter

 

[iHATEdodgers]

there's no point signing mario and then going with a 1st year unproven starter

This is an excellent point.

 

[NinerSickness]

there's no point signing mario and then going with a 1st year unproven starter

One has nothing to do with the other. I don't want to go into why it would be a mistake to give Alex Smith the kind of money he's worth VS giving the starting job to Kaepernick because I already have a seperate thread for it. But the concept has nothing to do with signing Mario Williams or not signing him.

 

[MHSL82]

... I'd take Smith before Flacco or Sanchez for this team right now, but he is limited. That said, Harbaugh has found a way to make things work with every QB he has touched, and he has a phenomenally talented one to work with in Kaepernick. I am very interested to see how he develops over the next year or two. If he can assume the starting spot in two years, we could be in very good shape for a long time.

I'm interested in seeing how he develops all our QBs. Alex is only two years older than Kaepernick so duration isn't an issue. Kaepernick is reportedly and demonstratedly more athletic than what we've seen from Alex (though he's no slouch either). So I'm still holding out hope for everyone on our QB roster.
There are questions on whether Alex is able to take the next step or whether he's hit his ceiling. There are questions on whether Kaepernick can use his athleticism and execute at NFL speed (no matter what the guess is, it's still an estimation). There are no guarantees here, that's why I think the 2-3 year deal is best for all parties. It gives Alex time to prove it next year and if so enough room for a final shot contract. It gives Kaepernick a chance to take over if Alex doesn't by that third year (or sooner since the deal is cap friendly and team's advantage of being able to cut players). It also makes it that Harbaugh doesn't have to choose right now.

 

[MHSL82]

I know the Niners are a SB contender. But they're not one of the 4 most talented teams in the NFL. That means their chances of winning a SB are pretty small next year. It doens't mean it won't happen, but it means they should keep building until they're one of the 3 or 4 most talented teams. Short-sided next-year-or-bust thinking would be a wasted opprotunity to build a winner for a long time.

It doesn't have to be trading Justin, and it doesn't have to be signing Mario. It just needs to be planning for the long term over the short term.

It does, however, need to be Kaepernick over Alex.

I know this was your point all along, why didn't you just say it this way pages ago. This makes much more sense than what you said before (though I knew what you were saying then).

I don't think it must be Kaepernick over Alex, at least not this year. It has to be Alex or someone who will play better than Alex. If Kaepernick can play just as well as Alex, then it's still a neutral exchange with more TO risk and the risk that he won't bring the bigger plays. If Kaepernick can play better, Harbaugh will put him in. If he can play better than Smith but Harbaugh doesn't feel it, he won't get the trust that he needs and the limitations of not having the trust will even itself out with the natural risks that first time starters have. Unless Kaep could succeed going rogue, he'll need Harbaugh's trust. If we can get someone better than both, it's a no-brainer. As everyone else is, I'm going with whoever Harbaugh chooses. (I don't mean just accept it because all of us have to accept it or go to another team, I mean support it.)

 

[Flyingiguana]

One has nothing to do with the other. I don't want to go into why it would be a mistake to give Alex Smith the kind of money he's worth VS giving the starting job to Kaepernick because I already have a seperate thread for it. But the concept has nothing to do with signing Mario Williams or not signing him.

it would be a major risk to go with a completely unproven and raw qb on a playoff team and sign off on the big signing bonus and guaranteed contract needed to bring in mario. the play of a qb can completely ruin the best coaches out there. do u want to turn into the chicago bears?

it would be bordering on complete and utter stupidity for anyone involved in that decision.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I know this was your point all along, why didn't you just say it this way pages ago. This makes much more sense than what you said before (though I knew what you were saying then).

I don't think it must be Kaepernick over Alex, at least not this year. It has to be Alex or someone who will play better than Alex. If Kaepernick can play just as well as Alex, then it's still a neutral exchange with more TO risk and the risk that he won't bring the bigger plays. If Kaepernick can play better, Harbaugh will put him in. If he can play better than Smith but Harbaugh doesn't feel it, he won't get the trust that he needs and the limitations of not having the trust will even itself out with the natural risks that first time starters have. Unless Kaep could succeed going rogue, he'll need Harbaugh's trust. If we can get someone better than both, it's a no-brainer. As everyone else is, I'm going with whoever Harbaugh chooses. (I don't mean just accept it because all of us have to accept it or go to another team, I mean support it.)

So wait I don't get it, we don't have to go all madden and trade everyone for draft picks and start the backup QB with no experience? All we have to do is start the backup QB with no experience... dang we coulda done that this year.

 

[Texas9erFan]

Seriously? Alex Smith is going to redefine the QB position by protecting the ball and throwing for 200 yards and one TD a game? I've got news for you: that sort of QB play has had its heyday already. Given the rule changes, that sort of performance will never define anything but average or slightly above-average QB play.

I don't mean to belittle what Smith did this season. He showed tremendous improvement and his ability to protect the ball was huge. Because we had phenomenal defense and STs. On a team that could not lean so heavily on those other units, Smith could just as easily have gone 3-13. Your argument about "meaningless stats" aside, there is a pretty strong correlation between elite QB play and the top teams in the league. Too strong to simply disregard as coincidence.

I'm certainly not in favor of blowing up the team, as Sick proposes. We have a great foundation, do not rely heavily on older players (at 32, Justin Smith can play at a very high level for three or four more years, especially given his health history, his work ethic, and his reliance on power and technique more than speed), and the offense should only get better with another year in the system and some hopefully key additions this offseason. But like the Ravens or Jets, we will find it difficult to compete year-in and year-out with an average QB. I'd take Smith before Flacco or Sanchez for this team right now, but he is limited. That said, Harbaugh has found a way to make things work with every QB he has touched, and he has a phenomenally talented one to work with in Kaepernick. I am very interested to see how he develops over the next year or two. If he can assume the starting spot in two years, we could be in very good shape for a long time.

Rule changes have changed the game, but it's still football and the game must still be won on all sides of the ball. Average to slightly above average play is all that's required from any individual on the entire team if they all play GREAT as a team.

I certainly can't dismiss how many SB visits Tom Brady has had. Quite a lot. And HE IS an elite QB.
BUT
How many SB games has Peyton Manning played in?
How many SB games has Drew Brees played in?
How many SB games has Aaron Rodgers played in?

The answer for every one of them is ONE!
And in every case where they did go to the SB it was because they had a solid, well balanced TEAM.

I simply don't believe now, nor will I likely ever believe, that a single player can carry a team all the way to the big dance. OR that an elite QB is required to get there as well. I need only show the 2011 49ers as an example of what can achieved with chemistry and solid team play.

All we need is a good receiver or two and the Niners will be UNSTOPPABLE!

 

[NinerSickness]

All we need is a good receiver or two and the Niners will be UNSTOPPABLE!

That is adorably naive. And this kind of thinking can ruin the future of a franchise.

You're looking at this in such a static perspective. There isn't an unstoppable team in the NFL this year, and there hasn't been anything that even closely respembles such a mighty characterization since the Patriots of the early 2000's & the Broncos of the late 90's. Maybe the Steelers of the late 2000's, but they couldn't have won without the 12th striped man.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm interested in seeing how he develops all our QBs. Alex is only two years older than Kaepernick so duration isn't an issue. Kaepernick is reportedly and demonstratedly more athletic than what we've seen from Alex (though he's no slouch either). So I'm still holding out hope for everyone on our QB roster.
There are questions on whether Alex is able to take the next step or whether he's hit his ceiling. There are questions on whether Kaepernick can use his athleticism and execute at NFL speed (no matter what the guess is, it's still an estimation). There are no guarantees here, that's why I think the 2-3 year deal is best for all parties. It gives Alex time to prove it next year and if so enough room for a final shot contract. It gives Kaepernick a chance to take over if Alex doesn't by that third year (or sooner since the deal is cap friendly and team's advantage of being able to cut players). It also makes it that Harbaugh doesn't have to choose right now.

I don't think Alex has hit his ceiling, per se, but I just don't know how much higher it is. I'm absolutely fine going with him next year, but I'd look to upgrade unless he can consistently show what he did toward the end of the Saints game.

 

[NinerSickness]

it would be a major risk to go with a completely unproven and raw qb on a playoff team and sign off on the big signing bonus and guaranteed contract needed to bring in mario. it would be bordering on complete and utter stupidity for anyone involved in that decision.

First of all it would be an even greater risk to go with an average QB like Alex who keeps the passing game in 2nd gear while relying on the running game. And secondly Mario Williams would be one of the LEAST risky propositions in the NFL. He's just about as close to a sure thing as it gets. The only closer thing would be like a Nick Mangold or a Patrick Willis to name a couple.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Rule changes have changed the game, but it's still football and the game must still be won on all sides of the ball. Average to slightly above average play is all that's required from any individual on the entire team if they all play GREAT as a team.

I certainly can't dismiss how many SB visits Tom Brady has had. Quite a lot. And HE IS an elite QB.
BUT
How many SB games has Peyton Manning played in?
How many SB games has Drew Brees played in?
How many SB games has Aaron Rodgers played in?

The answer for every one of them is ONE!
And in every case where they did go to the SB it was because they had a solid, well balanced TEAM.

I simply don't believe now, nor will I likely ever believe, that a single player can carry a team all the way to the big dance. OR that an elite QB is required to get there as well. I need only show the 2011 49ers as an example of what can achieved with chemistry and solid team play.

All we need is a good receiver or two and the Niners will be UNSTOPPABLE!

A single player can't carry a team all the way. But a great QB sure as shit makes a big difference. It's much easier to hold onto a great QB for ten years than to keep together an elite D and STs.

 

[Flyingiguana]

First of all it would be an even greater risk to go with an average QB like Alex who keeps the passing game in 2nd gear while relying on the running game. And secondly Mario Williams would be one of the LEAST risky propositions in the NFL. He's just about as close to a sure thing as it gets. The only closer thing would be like a Nick Mangold or a Patrick Willis to name a couple.

when smith is asked to make passes he has made them for the majority of the season. it could take kap 3-4 years if ever to turn into an average starter. spending the kind of money needed to pull off these madden scenerios would go to waste if we needed to wait years for kap. let him develop behind smith and in a couple years he can take over if he progresses well.

 

[dredinis21]

I know the Niners are a SB contender. But they're not one of the 4 most talented teams in the NFL. That means their chances of winning a SB are pretty small next year. It doens't mean it won't happen, but it means they should keep building until they're one of the 3 or 4 most talented teams. Short-sided next-year-or-bust thinking would be a wasted opprotunity to build a winner for a long time.

It doesn't have to be trading Justin, and it doesn't have to be signing Mario. It just needs to be planning for the long term over the short term.

It does, however, need to be Kaepernick over Alex.

Building to me means ADDING pieces, not gutting a defense. Trading away Justin Smith and Sop, letting Carlos and Goldson walk is NO WAY to "build". That's called a firesale. You can continue to sign FA effectively and draft for the future, as Baalke showed in his clinic titled "Offseason 2011". As far as this Kaep vs. Alex deal, don't sleep on Tolzien bc he possesses a decent arm, VERY quick release, and good accuracy. If that kid shows to be able to read defenses effectively, he could be a player to look for as well. But I don't think that the Niners are going to get that far....I expect an Alex signing within a couple of days after FA starts.

 

[NinerSickness]

Building to me means ADDING pieces, not gutting a defense. Trading away Justin Smith and Sop, letting Carlos and Goldson walk is NO WAY to "build". That's called a firesale.

Ok then let's play this out. Let's say the Niners did ALL of the, what I call, long term moves I'd want 'em to make. I don't know what the Niners could get for Soap, but I only said I'd be OPEN to trading him FOR THE RIGHT PRICE. So in this scenario, just for arguement's sake let's say the only player they trade is Justin Smith for the 14th overall pick to the Cowboys or the 16th overall to the Jets.

Keep in mind these names are interchangeable with others whom the Niners might like more...

Niners cut: Goodwin. Average of 4 million off the books over 2 years.
Justin off books: 7.44 million off for 2 years.
Niners let Alex walk: That's probably an average of 8-10 million off the books for at LEAST a few years.

Niners draft:
Michael Floyd at 14-16
Peter Konz in the 20's after trading up with 3rd round pick.
CB in the 2nd round: Minnefield, Gilmore, whoever in the 2nd round

Niners sign:

Mario Williams: let's just say he & Alex would've had simillar cap #'s.
Calais Campbell: Let's say his cap # cancels out Justin's.
Brooks: Let's say he gets an average of 4.5 million.

That's a rotatoin of Mario, Aldon & Brooks at OLB. Soap comes off the field on passing downs; McDonald at NT, Mario at LDE.

And they'd still have the money to re-sign Goldston & Rogers if they wanted to. In fact they could probably fit another WR as well.

OFFENSE:

QB: Kaep
HB: same
FB: same
OLT: same
OLG: same
C: Konz
RG: same / competition
RT: Same
TE: same

WR: Floyd / Crabby / Morgan / ???

Defense:

LDE: same
NT: same
RDE: Campbell
ILB: same
OLB: Mario, Aldon, Brooks, Haralson (unless they wanns cut Haralson for the cap money to sign another depth player like Franklin, etc).
DBs: same

Biggest difference: Kaep over Alex
Biggest advantage: not a single starter on the team very close to declining age; most still improving.
Biggest improvement: WRs
Potential for pass rush: legendary
Offensive line: better than last year by mid season (Goodwin was badwin).

Or the Niners could draft David Decastro at 14/16 and Konz & make the OL legendary along with the pass rush while depending on FA for a WR. The WR would probably cancel out eihter Goldson or Rogers, but that's where either Reggie Smith or Chris Culliver comes in.

...or if the Niners get REALLY LUCKy, Manning doesn't retire & the Colts decide to make a trade.

P.S. teams who want to improve this offseason are going to have a hard time doing so because FA & the draft, for the most part, is relatively weak.

 

[dredinis21]

Sick, you just made my point for me. This ain't Madden. In order for your plan to happen, EVERYTHING has to fall our way. That's not feasible. We could add pass rush and WR in the draft without gutting our defensive corp. Wouldn't that be "building" for the future? Secondly, what would be the "right price" for Sop? I would venture to say that he is worth far more to our run defense then he would fairly fetch in trade. But humor me...what would you consider to be "right price"?

 

[NinerSickness]

Sick, you just made my point for me. This ain't Madden. In order for your plan to happen, EVERYTHING has to fall our way. That's not feasible. We could add pass rush and WR in the draft without gutting our defensive corp. Wouldn't that be "building" for the future? Secondly, what would be the "right price" for Sop? I would venture to say that he is worth far more to our run defense then he would fairly fetch in trade. But humor me...what would you consider to be "right price"?

I don't know; I'd have to think about it. I'll have to get back to you on that one...

You call it "gutting" the defense, but even if you JUST isolate the Justin Smith trade it's basically losing the best 3-4 RDE in the game and gaining:

1) Calais Campbell - one of the better 3-4 RDEs in the legue right now
2) Michael Floyd or David Decastro.

That's it! Take the rest of the way and that's what you get for trading Justin Smith. Defense gets a bit of a downgrade, offense gets a big upgrade; defense gets younger; the downgrade dissapears in a couple of years when Campbell passes Justin up.

As far as letting Alex go: That could be both an upgrade at QB and and upgrade at OLB (Mario). It could be a downgrade at QB too, but an average QB is not hard to find. In fact I think Harbaugh could get just as good of play from Chad Henne as he did from Alex last year (especially with better WRs like Floyd).

 

[dredinis21]

No, it's not just Justin. You spoke of Justin Smith, trading away Sop, and not resigning Rogers and Goldson. Then you went all Mario Williams on us and called it a day. Now that you spelled it all out, is it a bit better but still the wrong way to go IMO. This is a deep draft, one that we could do a lot of re-stocking in need positions well into round four. I would MUCH rather go the "build through the draft" route then overpay for a 3-4 DE/OLB. I don't see signing Mario Williams as THE move. Baalke proved a lot to me in the last draft, so much so that I cannot wait to see if his upcoming drafts are as successful....especially given his success at the top of the round. But what really gets me is his ability to find value in the mid rounds. The Steelers and Ravens, to me, are the benchmark of the NFL in scouting, drafting, developing, and putting their players in positions to be successful. We are well on that route given the leaps and bounds our team made this year, especially the draft picks. Our draft picks got BETTER as the season went on. We seem to have the right tools in place. It would be silly for us to re-structure an already proven commodity. Add? Yes. Re-do? No.