I think it's a mistake to go into "reload" mode

[ViperVisor]

Going with the Alex is average starting point. (Possible but the reason some of us would rather keep him the past 2 year was because he was about avg in play while lacking key things. Some of those things were still lacking in 2011. But maybe he just had a career year)

Even so you still come off as a deluded buffoon if you suggest 'ehhhh just go with Kaepernick.'

At least throw out a vet who could be had cheaper. Kyle Orton or Jason Campbell or even David Garrard or Vince Young.

You are leaving you master plan to be crapped all over by a questionable to be even avg QB.

This is not Madden. 'Alex is avg. I can replace his 80 player rating with a 70 and we'll be OK. Just a 10% dip'

 

[NinerSickness]

This is a deep draft, one that we could do a lot of re-stocking in need positions well into round four.

I completely disagree with that premise. I think this is the weakest and most shallow draft in a while.

I would MUCH rather go the "build through the draft" route then overpay for a 3-4 DE/OLB.

So would I, but outside of Nick Perry (whoo MIGHT be there at 30 but probably not) I don't see any great options in the draft at OLB. If there's one thing on which the Niners must set a premium it's pass rushers.

I'd also be open to signing Robert Mathis to play OLB, but I just see Mario Williams with no franchise tag as a no brainer (like Julius Peppers was).

As far as letting a DB walk goes I think it's more important to sign a WR than to re-sign either one of the DBs (especially Goldson). if it came down to Goldson or a #1 WR I'd sign a #1 WR (the WR would be more expensive, but the Niners have a decent amount of cap room). I want Rogers back, but I think it's more important to re-sign Brooks and keep him in the rotation (along with another pass rushing OLB: hense Mario Williams).

As far as Alex VS Kaep goes I'm just philosophically opposed to sticking with a guy whom the team KNOWS is an average QB for 8-10 million a year. Mario Williams would help the team a lot more than Alex Smith would. Sign Chad Henne and let him compete with Kaep while keeping an eye out for a franchise guy in the draft over the next few years.

 

[ViperVisor]

If Smith threw an avg number of INTs he would of had 13

avg TD would increase by 1 to 19.

If he had an avg of WR drops he'd pass 6 guys in Completion% to 63.6%


Maybe this was a fluke. But you can't BS your way to the team KNOWS is an average QB.
Melky Cabrera had a great season but the next is unknown.

 

[deep9er]

If Smith threw an avg number of INTs he would of had 13

avg TD would increase by 1 to 19.

If he had an avg of WR drops he'd pass 6 guys in Completion% to 63.6%


Maybe this was a fluke. But you can't BS your way to the team KNOWS is an average QB.
Melky Cabrera had a great season but the next is unknown.

yep.

we're just in a very tough spot at QB, didn't have one in development and even if we did, no guarantee Harbaugh keeps him? so Harbaugh comes in and decides to go with two rookies, HIS guys. we can all understand he couldn't draft a QB at #7, so they did the best they could round 2. these two guys need a little more time in development.

we're so fortunate Alex Smith had his career year, imagine if he didn't? imagine if he got hurt early in the season?

there's no easy solution at QB so we do the best we can, we're fortunate to even have a very good stop gap in Alex Smith. its a win-win if he re-signs, cause we don't have anyone ready, and he won't get more 'career' anywhere else.

 

[dredinis21]

I completely disagree with that premise. I think this is the weakest and most shallow draft in a while.



So would I, but outside of Nick Perry (whoo MIGHT be there at 30 but probably not) I don't see any great options in the draft at OLB. If there's one thing on which the Niners must set a premium it's pass rushers.

I'd also be open to signing Robert Mathis to play OLB, but I just see Mario Williams with no franchise tag as a no brainer (like Julius Peppers was).

As far as letting a DB walk goes I think it's more important to sign a WR than to re-sign either one of the DBs (especially Goldson). if it came down to Goldson or a #1 WR I'd sign a #1 WR (the WR would be more expensive, but the Niners have a decent amount of cap room). I want Rogers back, but I think it's more important to re-sign Brooks and keep him in the rotation (along with another pass rushing OLB: hense Mario Williams).

As far as Alex VS Kaep goes I'm just philosophically opposed to sticking with a guy whom the team KNOWS is an average QB for 8-10 million a year. Mario Williams would help the team a lot more than Alex Smith would. Sign Chad Henne and let him compete with Kaep while keeping an eye out for a franchise guy in the draft over the next few years.

With all due respect Sick, you are out of your fucking mind if you would rather re-sign Brooks instead of Rogers. Rogers is the BEST CB this franchise has seen since Deion left, a guy that is a bonafide cover corner playing the best ball of his career, and a guy who WANTS to be here. Oh yeah, and he's a Pro Bowler. Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB. I couldn't even read the rest of your post after that.

 

[sayheykid1]

There isn't another DE/OLB in the league that I would trade JS for.

JS should be the DPOY.

 

[MHSL82]

I completely disagree with that premise. I think this is the weakest and most shallow draft in a while.



So would I, but outside of Nick Perry (whoo MIGHT be there at 30 but probably not) I don't see any great options in the draft at OLB. If there's one thing on which the Niners must set a premium it's pass rushers.

I'd also be open to signing Robert Mathis to play OLB, but I just see Mario Williams with no franchise tag as a no brainer (like Julius Peppers was).

As far as letting a DB walk goes I think it's more important to sign a WR than to re-sign either one of the DBs (especially Goldson). if it came down to Goldson or a #1 WR I'd sign a #1 WR (the WR would be more expensive, but the Niners have a decent amount of cap room). I want Rogers back, but I think it's more important to re-sign Brooks and keep him in the rotation (along with another pass rushing OLB: hense Mario Williams).

As far as Alex VS Kaep goes I'm just philosophically opposed to sticking with a guy whom the team KNOWS is an average QB for 8-10 million a year. Mario Williams would help the team a lot more than Alex Smith would. Sign Chad Henne and let him compete with Kaep while keeping an eye out for a franchise guy in the draft over the next few years.

Saying that everyone knows xxxxx doesn't make xxxxx true. Everybody *knew* Alex was a turnover machine until, well, he didn't turn the ball over. Everyone *knew* this despite him always second-guessing risks. He was a turnover machine despite being risk adverse. And now that he's still risk-adverse, he improved in his turnover numbers. Everybody *knew* that Alex couldn't outduel Brees at the end or handle the pressure, but he did. Fluke or not, lucky or not, plenty knew things that didn't happen. He played well enough to win the NFCW if not for the late whistle or two turnovers contributing directly to 10 points (or as directly as you can get). He could have played better, as KW could have too, but he didn't fold like most knew he would by turning it over. (Ask a good sample size of people before the game if Smith would get a TO, I bet most would say yes, the stage was too big).

The team does not know that Alex will only be an average QB. You *know* it because that's your opinion. If the team knows he's average, they wouldn't be offering 8-10 million for average play, unless 8-10 was average pay, and if that's the case we're getting what we're paying for, what are you complaining about? Kaep this year is getting paid either way, why not develop him so that we get better play later? Risking that he puts us back and is paid the same and has worse production later is not necessary when we'd be paying Alex his fair share. --- And again, if 8-10 is above his fair share, then obviously the team thinks higher than you do, which is average.

 

[Texas9erFan]

That is adorably naive. And this kind of thinking can ruin the future of a franchise.

You're looking at this in such a static perspective. There isn't an unstoppable team in the NFL this year, and there hasn't been anything that even closely respembles such a mighty characterization since the Patriots of the early 2000's & the Broncos of the late 90's. Maybe the Steelers of the late 2000's, but they couldn't have won without the 12th striped man.

Adorably naive???

Good friggin lord, dude. At least just call me a homer for fuck sake!!!

Adorably naive???



Look... you and I, and a lot of other people here, disagree. I think the team we have REALLY IS a player or two away from being unstoppable. That's not naive at all.
We finished 13-3 and didn't have an offense that could score 40 points a game. Not that that's necessary when you have a defense like ours. Scoring 30 per game would be fine. An opponent can't beat us if an opponent can't score.

If you're making an argument that we should scrap this MONSTER defense we have in an attempt to build an offense like the Saints have, I'd say you're either on some serious drugs or play too much fantasy football. Or both.

 

[EKmane]

I can't believe that this thread is still going on. The whole concept makes no sense at all. I know a lot of us have different views on what the couple/few moves are that we need to take the next step, but with this idea, I'm sure Sick is in his own world (no disrespect).

You're killin me. We should be in the Superbowl...with this team! Just imagine when we "reload". This team has had talent for a while now. That's the reason we all used to get so frustrated, we seen the talented players. The beautiful thing is that most of these players are in their prime with playoff experience now, plus a great staff. We played this season with only MOST OF THE PLAYBOOK! Now is the time, Sick.

 

[NinerSickness]

Ok, I apologize Texas9erfan. Maybe I have adifferent view of the word "unstoppable" than you do.

With all due respect Sick, you are out of your fucking mind if you would rather re-sign Brooks instead of Rogers. Rogers is the BEST CB this franchise has seen since Deion left, a guy that is a bonafide cover corner playing the best ball of his career, and a guy who WANTS to be here. Oh yeah, and he's a Pro Bowler. Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB. I couldn't even read the rest of your post after that.

Let me be more clear: Rogers is more valuable than Brooks. But they're both FAs, so everything boils down to bang for yer buck. Rogers will cost WAY more to re-sign than Brooks. However I think it's more important to be strong at OLB than CB.

If you didn't notice Brooks is the best overall OLB on the team. Aldon is the best pass rushing LB. Aldon hasn't been asked to cover at all. He only played like 40% of the snaps. Haralson was the starter.

This is why I think the Niners would be wise to keep Brooks around AND put a premium on getting a 10 sack caliber OLB like Super Mario or maybe Robert Mathis (Nick Perry?). Since the premium is on pass rushing OLBs in a 3-4 Brooks won't get a huge payday. But he can still rush the passer pretty well while having the versatility to do other things. That's why I want the Niners to basically have 3 starting OLBs: Brooks + Aldon = 1 starter and the other guy. That's basically how it is now except it's Haralson + Aldon & Brooks as the other guy.

We played this season with only MOST OF THE PLAYBOOK! Now is the time, Sick.

You're right; now is the time. But it's not any more "the time" than 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 & maybe further, which is why I want the Niners to continue to build on the foundation of the team rather than suppliment by adding the best guys to fill in the missing pieces.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Justin Smith is the foundation of this team (at least the defense) and you are advocating trading him... Pure Madden.

Anyway Baalke would have to have a brain swap with a 15 year-old and Harbaugh would have to be channeling Dennis Erickson to consider any of these moves.

 

[NinerSickness]

Justin Smith is the foundation of this team (at least the defense) and you are advocating trading him... Pure Madden.

How much longer do you think Justin Smith is going to be an all-pro' caliber player?

How much longer do you think Calais Campbell is going to be one of the better 3-4 DEs in the NFL?

Which number is greater?

 

[Flyingiguana]

i have no problems riding justin smith into his twilight years. u need vets on your team and he's still in his prime and playing his best football.

 

[NinerSickness]

i have no problems riding justin smith into his twilight years. u need vets on your team and he's still in his prime and playing his best football.

Yes, but how man more of those dominant years do you think he has? Even Bryant Young was retired by age 35, and his last couple of seasons were very good, but they weren't like his younger, dominant years.

Justin Smith will be 33 next year.
Calais Campbell will be 26.

We know who's the better short term investment, but Campbell is clearly the better long term investment.

 

[Flyingiguana]

bryant young wasn't the same after snapping his leg. different scenerio. obviously smith will slow down, but u win championships with guys like smith. it would be like the ravens replacing ray lewis or ed reed with a young buck.

u need the leadership to go along the playmaking ability.

 

[NinerSickness]

bryant young wasn't the same after snapping his leg. different scenerio. obviously smith will slow down, but u win championships with guys like smith. it would be like the ravens replacing ray lewis or ed reed with a young buck.

BY was still a dominant player after he came back. 2005 was one of his best seasons (I think he eventually became a better 3-4 DE than a 4-3 DT). And yes Justin has been healthier.

Take John Radle: He was 35 his last season with Seattle, and he was really starting to wind down his 2nd to last season when he was 34. And before that season he only missed one game in his entire career (the year prior).

 

[dredinis21]

Sick, the problem with your argument is based on philosophy. You preach of long term solutions and then hamstring our cap situation with a 20 mil cap hit FA purchase in your scenarios. Long term sustainability is based on the draft...and with the current CBA and the restrictions put on rookie wages, even MORE SO! You advocating for a huge FA signing reeks of Madden. Rogers and Goldson have PROVEN to work in our system, and at a very high level to boot. They should be re-signed. Brooks is a solid player who should be resigned. Justin Smith is this year's DPOY IMO. We should ride his leadership and productivity into his twilight years. What we SHOULD be doing is DRAFTING their eventual replacements and grooming them to fit our system, not force feeding it with high priced FA signings that haven't proven to be effective in the systems we run. I already mentioned it, but look at the Steelers and Ravens. How often do they sign a high priced FA? Hardly ever. Where they create their sustainability is through the draft, pure and simple. Brett Keisel was on ROME the other day talking about how he was on the ST squad for 5 yrs, while learning the intricacies of playing 3-4 DE, then took over for (IIRC) Aaron Smith when he left for FA and PIT didn't miss a beat. They didn't go out and sign Julius Peppers because he was the sexy pick. Ravens are the same way. Boulware was in his twilight years, the Ravens draft Terrell Suggs. Same premise.

What irks me and I believe so many others in this thread is the ease in which you are willing to let productive players in our system go. 20+ mil for one player that is not a QB is NOT bang for your buck IMO. Not at the expense of four other quality players.

Baalke has proven to draft effectively. I would love to see him draft and WR, 3-4 DE, OG, and OLB with our first four picks in no particular order but bang for our buck. This is where sustainability is reached.

 

[dredinis21]

How much longer do you think Justin Smith is going to be an all-pro' caliber player?

How much longer do you think Calais Campbell is going to be one of the better 3-4 DEs in the NFL?

Which number is greater?

Considering he had his best year this year at age 32/33? I'd say at least 2-3 at a ProBowl-esque, plenty of time to draft and groom his heir apparent. Meanwhile, you keep the heart and soul of your defense and allow him to continue to help mold this young, explosive defense. Ray McDonald raved about how Justin Smith was the one that taught him what needed to be done in order to be a successful player in this league in an article earlier this year although I cannot remember who wrote it (I read it as a link someone offered on this board). No doubt, some rookie will listen and listen well to what Justin Smith is saying to him.

Campbell is no Smith. Bottomline. Campbell is a good 3-4 DE, not the IMPACT 3-4 DE that Smith is.

 

[Flyingiguana]

justin smith and willis are basically untouchable. neither can be replaced by anyone in the league. they not only bring a hgh level of ability, but leadership and attitude that rubs off on other players.

 

[NinerSickness]

I get it Dre. Campbell is no Justin Smith. I know that. I know he's the perfect teammate, leader, etc. He's the Ray Lewis of the Niners' defense. The whole defense would suffer if he were traded. I agree.

I still think it'd be the right move. Why? All the leadership in the world won't win a SB if the Niners don't get more talented. Period. It's like starting with a team who, on their VERY best day still isn't as good as the Ravens, Pats, Steelers, Packers (and probably next year's Saints) of the world when they have a pretty good but not great game (especially when the game isn't in SF).

Sick, the problem with your argument is based on philosophy. You preach of long term solutions and then hamstring our cap situation with a 20 mil cap hit FA purchase in your scenarios. Long term sustainability is based on the draft.

That only bolsters my arguement. I'm preaching long-term sustainability, and I'm talking about getting more draft picks.

You advocating for a huge FA signing reeks of Madden.

Everything I suggested was SALARY CAP NEUTRAL! And the names are interchangeable; that was just one scenario.
Alex's salary VS Mario's...
Goldson's VS a WR's or Rogers' VS a WR's...
Campbell's VS Justin's...

And I'd also be open to going after Mathis or Nick Perry in the draft. Either way I'm emphasizing pass rushers & strong overall OLBs over DBs. But I'd also love to get both DBs back if they can all fit!

And stop with the "Madden" comments; I don't play video games.

Rogers and Goldson have PROVEN to work in our system, and at a very high level to boot.

Agree 100%.

Brooks is a solid player who should be resigned.

I want Brooks back more than the DBs!

Justin Smith is this year's DPOY IMO..

Agreed.

What we SHOULD be doing is DRAFTING their eventual replacements and grooming them to fit our system, not force feeding it with high priced FA signings that haven't proven to be effective in the systems we run.

You mean kind of like how I was suggesting the Niners trade Justin FOR A DRAFT PICK???

I already mentioned it, but look at the Steelers and Ravens. How often do they sign a high priced FA? Hardly ever.

Wrong; they do it all the time. They give huge money to guys they've drafted. They've just been drafting re-sign-worthy players longer than the Niners have.

And I'm not married to the idea of signing Mario. I like the idea because a player that good rarely hits FA without getting the franchise tag; but if Nick Perry lasted long enough to draft I like him too. I like Robert Mathis if he'd fit in a 3-4. But that's not the key move; the key move is to trade Justin Smith like the Patriots traded Richard Seymour (except they were mistaken to do so because they had much more talent than the Niners did & should've been in re-load mode).

A guy like Campbell + a guy like Michael Floyd or David Decastro for 5+ years helps more than a world beater like Justin Smith for maybe a couple more years.