I think it's a mistake to go into "reload" mode

[MHSL82]

For grater clarity instead of saying I think the Niners have just as good a chance of winning a SB with Alex as with Kaep I should've said the Niners have just as BAD a chance of winning a SB with Alex as with Kaep.

Yeah, this makes it much better. It still says the same damn thing with the only difference not being big enough to change anyone's mind. In fact, it's just a bigger dig at Smith, which makes your opinion neither better nor worse. It definitely wasn't clarification of anything we didn't already know you felt. We don't know anything about Kaep for us to say either way. We know why he was drafted but we don't know, good or bad, about his performance will be. That's why it makes Iguana's statements that he'll fail absurd and yours saying he will lead to the same chances of winning the SB absurd, too (didn't want to use a synonym for absurd that would unintentionally imply that your opinion was worse than Iguana's). It's an opinion based on never seeing him play at this level. Good or bad, these opinions won't go beyond random worth. Even Luck is a variable despite being touted as the most surefire franchise guy in ages. Kaep? We don't know.

 

[NinerSickness]

Ok I'll put it this way: (This is just a way of predicting, not evaluating)

Say Any established QB will MOST LIKELY perform up to 2 notches higher or lower than expected, and as the difference gets larger the chances of performing thusly get smaller. So:

Say Jamarcus Russel's career = 2 and Tom Brady's career = 8

Tom Brady's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10

Jamarcus Russel's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4

Say Alex Smith's career = 5.



2012 Alex performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:
3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, or 7.

If this were true here's how I'd predict an unknown QB's probable performance like Kaepernick's:

2012 Kaepernick = 16 Random picks of the following divided by 16:
2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7,8

Does that make things more confusing for you?

 

[dredinis21]

Ok I'll put it this way: (This is just a way of predicting, not evaluating)

Say Jamarcus Russel's career = 2 and Tom Brady's career = 8

Say Alex Smith's career = 5.

Say Any established QB will MOST LIKELY perform up to 2 notches higher or lower than expected, and as the difference gets larger the chances of performing thusly get smaller. So:

2012 Alex performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:
3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, or 7.

If this were true here's how I'd predict an unknown QB's probable performance like Kaepernick's:

2012 Kaepernick = 16 Random picks of the following divided by 16:
2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7,8

Does that make things more confusing for you?

All that the above statement proves is that you are off your fucking rocker.

 

[NinerSickness]

...I realized I didn't allow for the possibility of greatness with Kaep, which shows my bais against him, so to be fair here's Kaep modified (and Tom & Jamarcus' numbers):

Say Any established QB will MOST LIKELY perform up to 2 notches higher or lower than expected, and as the difference gets larger the chances of performing thusly get smaller. So:

Say Jamarcus Russel's career = 2 and Tom Brady's career = 8

Tom Brady's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10

Jamarcus Russel's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4

Say Alex Smith's career = 5.



2012 Alex performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:
3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, or 7.

If this were true here's how I'd predict an unknown QB's probable performance like Kaepernick's:

2012 Kaepernick = 16 Random picks of the following divided by 16:
0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10

Does that make things more confusing for you?

 

[NinerSickness]

All that the above statement proves is that you are off your fucking rocker.

Why?

 

[ViperVisor]

You are Funky Butt Loving Mother Trucking HIGH

If you think the deck for Kaep 2012 is anything like Smith's.

YOU ARE COO-COO FOR COCO CRISP. STOP POSTING BEFORE YOU HAVE YOUR INTERNET REVOKED.
I mean JESUS CHRIST. How retarded do you think other people here are?

You actually have Kaep outplaying Smith in 2012.

You done wrecked yourself. Now check yourself.

 

[NinerSickness]

You actually have Kaep outplaying Smith in 2012.

You don't follow along very well. I have Kaep's likely performance EQUAL TO Alex's likely performance, not better than it. The only difference is the potential for much better or much worse play.

 

[MHSL82]

Eh, your still starting at a subjective point. So I'm ok with it being an opinion. It's that you state it like fact. Even your random averages started off at a subjective number. Add that number to a subjective number of how the rest of the team will do with that QB. Add in the fact that depending on the QB we'd have different rosters outside of QB, etc. Because if your above statement is true, you should always go with the unknown (unless you have an elite QB, which no one is claiming here) if just by the fact that we don't know how he'll do means that he's capable of a 10.

 

[NinerSickness]

Eh, your still starting at a subjective point. So I'm ok with it being an opinion. It's that you state it like fact. Even your random averages started off at a subjective number. Add that number to a subjective number of how the rest of the team will do with that QB. Add in the fact that depending on the QB we'd have different rosters outside of QB, etc. Because if your above statement is true, you should always go with the unknown (unless you have an elite QB, which no one is claiming here) if just by the fact that we don't know how he'll do means that he's capable of a 10.

I didn't mean it to sound like these are facts; 2012 is impossible to predict. This is just my way of showing the range of quality in which I EXPECT Alex or Kaep to play. But yes I'd usually go with an unknown over an average QB unless the rest of the team was so good an average QB put 'em over the top in terms of talent (which the Niners' roster does not do IMO).

And bear in mind I always thought Kaep was a pretty average prospect.

 

[MHSL82]

I didn't mean it to sound like these are facts; 2012 is impossible to predict. This is just my way of showing the range of quality in which I EXPECT Alex or Kaep to play. But yes I'd usually go with an unknown over an average QB unless the rest of the team was so good an average QB put 'em over the top in terms of talent (which the Niners' roster does not do IMO).

And bear in mind I always thought Kaep was a pretty average prospect.

No problems here.

OT: Was there a sunset clause on your bet that made you have to put Crabtree pic as your avatar? Is it for as long as he's on the team?

 

[Flyingiguana]

I didn't mean it to sound like these are facts; 2012 is impossible to predict. This is just my way of showing the range of quality in which I EXPECT Alex or Kaep to play. But yes I'd usually go with an unknown over an average QB unless the rest of the team was so good an average QB put 'em over the top in terms of talent (which the Niners' roster does not do IMO).

And bear in mind I always thought Kaep was a pretty average prospect.

so average qb vs average prospect. i don't think kap would outperform what dalton did this year and he doesn't have aj green. i think kap would have a 70sh rating, but u might see some extra plays with his legs. although not enough to make up for the increase in interceptions.

smith should improve after a full season while kap can continue to develop, and he needs that development

 

[NinerSickness]

No problems here.

OT: Was there a sunset clause on your bet that made you have to put Crabtree pic as your avatar? Is it for as long as he's on the team?

Great question; actually it wasn't a bet. On draft day '09 (the day of anger I like to call it) I'd say at least 8 people out of 10 on the old BSPN forum LOVED the Crabby pick; a few of us wanted to vomit with rage. I was one of 'em (imac & I actually both said he was a TJ Houshmanzadeh as a best case scenario independent of each other in a huge coincidence). Naturally the masses turned on us saying we're wishing for him to fail & we're not being true fans. So despite the fact that I don't really like avatars I created this goofy Crab-Tree avatar to show I'll support him as long as he's in red & gold (even though I can't stand his face & he makes me want to deliver a fist right in his suck hole).

 

[iHATEdodgers]

You are Funky Butt Loving Mother Trucking HIGH

If you think the deck for Kaep 2012 is anything like Smith's.

YOU ARE COO-COO FOR COCO CRISP. STOP POSTING BEFORE YOU HAVE YOUR INTERNET REVOKED.
I mean JESUS CHRIST. How retarded do you think other people here are?

You actually have Kaep outplaying Smith in 2012.

You done wrecked yourself. Now check yourself.

This is funny.

 

[deep9er]

so average qb vs average prospect. i don't think kap would outperform what dalton did this year and he doesn't have aj green. i think kap would have a 70sh rating, but u might see some extra plays with his legs. although not enough to make up for the increase in interceptions.

smith should improve after a full season while kap can continue to develop, and he needs that development[/QUOTE]


ok, this makes sense to me.

btw - like Sick's number analogy to illustrate his thought, but IMO the numbers for CK are optimistic. CK might very well have higher numbers one day, but odds say it won't be this coming season.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

Ok I'll put it this way: (This is just a way of predicting, not evaluating)

Say Any established QB will MOST LIKELY perform up to 2 notches higher or lower than expected, and as the difference gets larger the chances of performing thusly get smaller. So:

Say Jamarcus Russel's career = 2 and Tom Brady's career = 8

Tom Brady's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10

Jamarcus Russel's probable 2012 performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:

0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4

Say Alex Smith's career = 5.

2012 Alex performance = 16 random picks from the following results divided by 16:
3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, or 7.

If this were true here's how I'd predict an unknown QB's probable performance like Kaepernick's:

2012 Kaepernick = 16 Random picks of the following divided by 16:
2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7,8

Does that make things more confusing for you?

You're being mathematically irresponsible with this post.

Why the arbitrary assignment of numbers? What range do you have to distinguish between a 5 (a winning above average QB like Smith) versus a 2 (A losing, but above average QB like Russel)? I get that you're trying to show range but this is piss poor.

What you're trying to do is extrapolate data that doesn't even exist yet (Kaep) versus data that does (Smith) and assign them to arbitrary range of performance and saying: "See? Kaep is as good as Smith!" This is ludicrous. I can not even begin to explain how wrong you are. Extrapolation (even as ridiculous as pointed out in your example) is A POOR method of assessment. Making shit up as you go does not imply certainty.

 

[NinerSickness]

Extrapolation (even as ridiculous as pointed out in your example) is A POOR method of assessment. Making shit up as you go does not imply certainty.

DO YOU PEOPLE READ BEFORE YOU HIT REPLY??? I freeking said that was a way to PREDICT possible outcomes not to evaluate them as QBs. Obviously you evaluate more specifically on past performances.

Oh and how the crap is Jamarcus Russell an above average QB???

The point is Alex is an average QB. Kaepernick is an unknown; he's just as likely to out-perform Alex as he is to perform worse than Alex as he is to perform about the same. If the rest of the team were talented enough to have a good chance of winning the SB next year with an average QB you go with the average QB. The Niners are not talented enough to likely win the SB next year, so they should go with the unknown rather than pay 10 million a year for an average QB because when the cheaper guy will probably perform pretty similarly (as would a possibly cheap FA like Chad Henne).

 

[MHSL82]

DO YOU PEOPLE READ BEFORE YOU HIT REPLY??? I freeking said that was a way to PREDICT possible outcomes not to evaluate them as QBs. Obviously you evaluate more specifically on past performances.

Oh and how the crap is Jamarcus Russell an above average QB???

The point is Alex is an average QB. Kaepernick is an unknown; he's just as likely to out-perform Alex as he is to perform worse than Alex as he is to perform about the same. If the rest of the team were talented enough to have a good chance of winning the SB next year with an average QB you go with the average QB. The Niners are not talented enough to likely win the SB next year, so they should go with the unknown rather than pay 10 million a year for an average QB because when the cheaper guy will probably perform pretty similarly (as would a possibly cheap FA like Chad Henne).

His point (opinion) is that your starting point of saying that Kaep is likely to do the same is wrong. And then extrapolating from that standpoint is no more scientific than your opinion on where to start extrapolating from. It's his opinion and your opinion. No one is right here and no one is wrong. I could guess that the number of seeds in this non-engineered pumpkin is x, and then, as long as the guess is reasonable, say that the likelihood of the number to be higher is the same as it is lower. But if I had guessed 10 million seeds or 1 seed, obviously the likelihood is not equal. It would be a scientific attempt based upon a ridiculous opinion. Which is what he says you're making. (Not that Alex is average, but that Kaep is the same - I don't find that as ridiculous as he does, but that's besides the point.)

I'm ok with you because you came out and said it was your opinion and not fact. He's attacking your extrapolation as an assertion of fact due to its scientific appearance. Again, no one is right nor wrong here. If someone said Alex was elite now or terrible now, they'd be wrong. But no one is saying that. There is a wide range of opinion that will go unproven or will later be proven. Saying that he has been average is more of factual statement. Saying he will remain average is an educated guess (opinion).

I don't know where the numbers lie, but I don't think it's just as likely that Kaep will succeed as he will fail. I don't see this as flipping a coin where averages are random. Yes, he's an unknown, but I could put up a range just as accurate/inaccurate as your range, because that's just opinion. I think the farther you go from the middle, the more likely you're right (as in the closer to zero, the more likely you'd be right to say Alex's not terrible and the closer to 10 the more likely you're right that he's not elite). We don't know about Kaep, but if we were to look at 2nd round QBs we'd get a better range. Or if we look at Nevada like systems, we'd get a range, etc. I don't know the numbers, but it isn't like a blindfolded dart game.

I have no problem with you or your posts, as even when I disagree, it's civil. And while I believe some might find you arrogant, I feel it's no big deal. It's just a message board; people should be confident in what they post. So I don't know about this particular poster, but I can see people responding more to your certainty than theirs.

 

[NinerSickness]

You know what would be great? If Peyton Manning came along and made this point moot by signing with the Niners. They'd be the favourire to win it all if that were the case. Oh that he would have one more healthy, dominant year! Or two?

I won't go all Lebron & start counting to seven.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

DO YOU PEOPLE READ BEFORE YOU HIT REPLY??? I freeking said that was a way to PREDICT possible outcomes not to evaluate them as QBs. Obviously you evaluate more specifically on past performances.

Oh and how the crap is Jamarcus Russell an above average QB???

The point is Alex is an average QB. Kaepernick is an unknown; he's just as likely to out-perform Alex as he is to perform worse than Alex as he is to perform about the same. If the rest of the team were talented enough to have a good chance of winning the SB next year with an average QB you go with the average QB. The Niners are not talented enough to likely win the SB next year, so they should go with the unknown rather than pay 10 million a year for an average QB because when the cheaper guy will probably perform pretty similarly (as would a possibly cheap FA like Chad Henne).

You have no idea how CK will do, but he's "just as likely" to out-perform Smith? So, did you get that info from reading tarot cards? Did your psychic tell you that on your last palm reading?

I owe you an apology. I had to go back and take a look if someone was crazy enough to validate a prediction without an evaluation of past performance. And indeed, you did say you weren't evaluating, just predicting. So, I see that you took the necessary steps to correct me on that little detail. Thanks for pointing out that you've been talking out of your ass all this time. Good troll bait! Gotta give you that one.

 

[NinerSickness]

Epic, I'm not trying to impugn you or anyone else. I'm simply saying that I'd go with the cheap unknown prospect over the expensive average QB on a team like the 49ers.

You have no idea how CK will do, but he's "just as likely" to out-perform Smith? So, did you get that info from reading tarot cards? Did your psychic tell you that on your last palm reading?

I also said he's just as likely to perform worse than Alex as his is better as he is just as well. I think he's an average prospect, and I think Alex is an average QB.

There's an advantage of a superior QB (obviously), but there's also an advantage of a worse QB who's cheap: it's easier to move on.