Geno Staying put

[wilwhite]

Geno probably could have squeezed some more money out of another team, but looks like he prioritized other things.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

But it is FAR from certain that whatever QB we draft will be a stud.

Statistically speaking it is very unlikely more than 2 of these 4 QBs will turn into pro bowl level QBs. And it is statistically unlikely that ANY of them will turn into elite QBs.

I realize that it is difficult to properly quantify these things but let's just spitball for a moment.

What do people think the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming an elite QB are? My personal guess is around 15%
What do people thin the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming a Pro Bowl QB are? My personal guess is around 30%
What do you think the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming as good as Geno Smith was last year? My personal guess is around 55-60%

So from a pure statistical perspective, we are better served trying to rebuild the defense and continue with Geno.

There's never been a guarantee drafting QB R1 would turn out to be a stud and most usually bust but you have to take a chance at getting one cause if he turns out elite or pro bowl level, the odds at getting to a Super Bowl are better than an average QB. Also, that rookie contract helps keeping the cap low to help build up the defense through FA to complement the players drafted.

 

[Wolvie]

This is such great news. I was thinking we might have to pay $30M AAV and would have been ok with that. $25M with incentives is amazing. I really hope we draft down in the first round to pick up one or two 1st rounders next year and while still having 4-5 picks in the second round in this draft.

 

[flyerhawk]

There's never been a guarantee drafting QB R1 would turn out to be a stud and most usually bust but you have to take a chance at getting one cause if he turns out elite or pro bowl level, the odds at getting to a Super Bowl are better than an average QB. Also, that rookie contract helps keeping the cap low to help build up the defense through FA to complement the players drafted.

Sometimes you have to take a chance. Are the Raiders more or less likely to be in a Super Bowl in the next 3 years now? I would say that most people would agree that it is less likely.

There are opportunity costs associated with taking QBs early in the draft. The downside risk of drafting a QB is notably higher than other positions given teams only have one QB that plays, barring injury. If you take a DL early in the draft, they may wind up being a bust but you can play him in limited situations rather than on every down.

Look at the Jets this season. They felt they had to start Wilson but the truth is that cooked Flacco gave them a better chance at winning. And now they are at a cross roads of what to do next. The Jets have taken TWO QBs in the top 5 in the past 6 seasons. And they still aren't any closer to being a contender today than they were 6 years ago.

And I know people will dismiss that as "Well that's the Jets" but it's not like they have had the same regime throughout that process. And the Seahawks did the same thing in the 90s.

Sometimes you have no choice but to get on the QB merry-go-round. But I think you want to be very careful before you choose to do that. Which was why I was so angry about the Russ trade.

 

[Cyder]

This is such great news. I was thinking we might have to pay $30M AAV and would have been ok with that. $25M with incentives is amazing. I really hope we draft down in the first round to pick up one or two 1st rounders next year and while still having 4-5 picks in the second round in this draft.

The Jets did something like that and ended up with 3 first rounders two of which were the offensive and defensive rookies of the year. With the draft capital the Hawks have they should be able to draft multiple guys they can plug right in

 

[Wolvie]

The Jets did something like that and ended up with 3 first rounders two of which were the offensive and defensive rookies of the year. With the draft capital the Hawks have they should be able to draft multiple guys they can plug right in

True, but if there is a QB there at 5, and the hawks could trade down to 9 while picking up a 2024 first rounder + other draft capital, then the Hawks should still be able to find plenty of talent that they could plug right in. I've heard that edge rushers are particularly deep this class.

 

[Cyder]

True, but if there is a QB there at 5, and the hawks could trade down to 9 while picking up a 2024 first rounder + other draft capital, then the Hawks should still be able to find plenty of talent that they could plug right in. I've heard that edge rushers are particularly deep this class.

I copmpletely agree. There's usually a team that is willing to reach up and grab a QB in the draft and give up excellent assets to do so. The Hawks are in a nice spot going into the draft with plenty of options.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Sometimes you have to take a chance. Are the Raiders more or less likely to be in a Super Bowl in the next 3 years now? I would say that most people would agree that it is less likely.

There are opportunity costs associated with taking QBs early in the draft. The downside risk of drafting a QB is notably higher than other positions given teams only have one QB that plays, barring injury. If you take a DL early in the draft, they may wind up being a bust but you can play him in limited situations rather than on every down.

Look at the Jets this season. They felt they had to start Wilson but the truth is that cooked Flacco gave them a better chance at winning. And now they are at a cross roads of what to do next. The Jets have taken TWO QBs in the top 5 in the past 6 seasons. And they still aren't any closer to being a contender today than they were 6 years ago.

And I know people will dismiss that as "Well that's the Jets" but it's not like they have had the same regime throughout that process. And the Seahawks did the same thing in the 90s.

Sometimes you have no choice but to get on the QB merry-go-round. But I think you want to be very careful before you choose to do that. Which was why I was so angry about the Russ trade.

The QB merry go round doesn't have elite/pro bowl caliber types cause there locked up till their skills are diminished. Yes the Jets have missed on drafting QBs but almost every franchise has at some point but that doesn't mean you shy away at the chance at drafting one with the possibility of hitting.

The Raiders will never get back to the SB due to horrible owner/FO

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

So the contract is actually 3 years $75M ($25M per) with $30M in incentives. That's obviously FAR better on paper than $35M per year.

Given the incentives are contingent upon making playoffs, wins, games played, etc. I will bump this grade to a B.

$20M per with no incentives (or less) would've gotten an A grade from me... but I can't say I am strictly opposed to $25M per before incentives.

 

[flyerhawk]

So the contract is actually 3 years $75M ($25M per) with $30M in incentives. That's obviously FAR better on paper than $35M per year.

Given the incentives are contingent upon making playoffs, wins, games played, etc. I will bump this grade to a B.

$20M per with no incentives (or less) would've gotten an A grade from me... but I can't say I am strictly opposed to $25M per before incentives.

My guess is that the report is off with regards to incentives.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

My guess is that the report is off with regards to incentives.

There's a ton of articles that are talking about it. Spotrac also shows 3 years $75M at this point. I don't think it's fake news (they always include incentives below the salary table).

 

[flyerhawk]

There's a ton of articles that are talking about it. Spotrac also shows 3 years $75M at this point. I don't think it's fake news (they always include incentives below the salary table).

Oh I think the 3 years 75 million is accurate.

I don't think the 30 million in incentives is accurate. In fact I'm almost certain it isn't given that the report is saying that he's getting 28 million this year.

Incentives don't really help the team all that much.

 

[Judge Fudge]

I don't want any ANY part of Anthony Richardson.

He doesn't have what it takes to be a star.

Who else was big and Strong arm. Think back 2005?

And what happened to him as soon as he started playing in the NFL?

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Oh I think the 3 years 75 million is accurate.

I don't think the 30 million in incentives is accurate. In fact I'm almost certain it isn't given that the report is saying that he's getting 28 million this year.

Incentives don't really help the team all that much.

Well his contract can be front loaded, it's not outlandish to think it's $28M this year prior to incentives... obviously you want to reward him immediately given what was done in 2022. That would still mean the other years are in the 20s and if he has another performance like last year (not holding my breath) then maybe there's extensions, who knows.

Now that $28M - I'm not sure if that includes incentives - it could be $18M + $10M expected incentives ($10M every year). You have to account for the incentives against the cap in the current year, however, if it's not realized you get the money back or bonus the following year. The incentives is also not guaranteed money... so if he absolutely sucks in 2023... that incentive amount comes back and creates a better cap situation for us the following year.. almost to the point you COULD potentially cut him if required - certainly by year 3 if he sucks 2 years in a row.

If it doesn't include that and Geno gets like $38-40M this year and goes deep in the playoffs... then yeah, that's worth it. The problem some of us had with Geno resigning was he's not going to live up to 2022 and kind of finished off lackluster towards the end of the season... BUT, a HUGE amount of that was on the defense not being able to do fuck all...

I said I'd be okay giving Geno around $20M in some earlier posts... $20-25 is meh... I'm fine with it. If he has another year like he did last year - then perfectly fine giving him more.... but that was the concern. Also, if Seattle really wants a QB at 5 they can very easily do it.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

I’m ok keeping Geno, he seems to fit in pretty well, played pretty well, we all know he’s not elite, but if we have the right team around him he’s capable.. I just didn’t want to see us eat up too much cap keeping him because we just got out of the Russ contract so jumping right back into another one would suck, especially with a 10 year backup, although he’s proven he can be a starter… I still think Seattle should nab a QB though at some point in the draft, why not … As far as our top picks, I’m not really thrilled about trading down unless we know for sure a guy they’re targeting will be there.. We need elite talent, hell trade up if we can nab the terminator, he looks like an elite prospect for sure… Jaylen Carter might be around now at 5 with the trouble he got in … I’d take the gamble, he would massively help our run D …

 

[flyerhawk]

Well his contract can be front loaded, it's not outlandish to think it's $28M this year prior to incentives... obviously you want to reward him immediately given what was done in 2022. That would still mean the other years are in the 20s and if he has another performance like last year (not holding my breath) then maybe there's extensions, who knows.

The problem is that incentives come in two flavors. Likely to be achieved and unlikely to be achieved. Likely to be achieved count immediately against the cap. Unlikely to be achieved count against the cap in the next season.

That is why incentives usually aren't a big part of contracts. They create uncertainty.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I’m ok keeping Geno, he seems to fit in pretty well, played pretty well, we all know he’s not elite, but if we have the right team around him he’s capable.. I just didn’t want to see us eat up too much cap keeping him because we just got out of the Russ contract so jumping right back into another one would suck, especially with a 10 year backup, although he’s proven he can be a starter… I still think Seattle should nab a QB though at some point in the draft, why not … As far as our top picks, I’m not really thrilled about trading down unless we know for sure a guy they’re targeting will be there.. We need elite talent, hell trade up if we can nab the terminator, he looks like an elite prospect for sure… Jaylen Carter might be around now at 5 with the trouble he got in … I’d take the gamble, he would massively help our run D …

It's all rumors and hearsay but there was reports about Carter not being that interested in football and some MINOR character concerns. I was fine ignoring that but now after the fiasco with the car crash, I dunno...

I think at #5 if he's there, the risk is worth the potential reward... the DL and front 7 stock this year though is REALLY high. There's a LOT of talented front 7 players in this draft... and now that we don't need a QB in the top 5, if some team like Carolina/LV wanna trade up for Richardson at #5 and award us another 2nd - I'm fine with that too.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

The problem is that incentives come in two flavors. Likely to be achieved and unlikely to be achieved. Likely to be achieved count immediately against the cap. Unlikely to be achieved count against the cap in the next season.

That is why incentives usually aren't a big part of contracts. They create uncertainty.

Fair point, I haven't seen the contract details (not sure if anyone has other than the lawyers) so we'll have to wait and see. And we know it's only $40M guarantees, which might as well be a 2 year deal.

 

[flyerhawk]

I’m ok keeping Geno, he seems to fit in pretty well, played pretty well, we all know he’s not elite, but if we have the right team around him he’s capable.. I just didn’t want to see us eat up too much cap keeping him because we just got out of the Russ contract so jumping right back into another one would suck, especially with a 10 year backup, although he’s proven he can be a starter… I still think Seattle should nab a QB though at some point in the draft, why not … As far as our top picks, I’m not really thrilled about trading down unless we know for sure a guy they’re targeting will be there.. We need elite talent, hell trade up if we can nab the terminator, he looks like an elite prospect for sure… Jaylen Carter might be around now at 5 with the trouble he got in … I’d take the gamble, he would massively help our run D …

It could get really interesting for the Hawks if they are sitting at 5 with Carter still on the board and Will Levis also still on the board with an itchy Raiders/Panthers team calling.

 

[flyerhawk]

Daniel Jones 4 years 195 million.

Yowza!!!