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Geno Staying put

JMR

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I think they shop the #5 pick pretty hard now. If someone wants to move up for Levis or Richardson, they will gladly take an extra pick in 2024.

Happy for Geno, happy that the team has stability. Worried about how much money this ties up for the FA class this year.
Very well could be the case. Now that they have paid Geno a decent pile of coin, they may now be intent on adding more lower priced starters. To do that, they may be inclined to turn the 1.5 into 3 or 4 picks. The total homerun for me would be trading down like 5 spots to pick up 2 more picks, then still getting Jalen Carter.
 

flyerhawk

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I agree and also sick of seeing mediocre defenses but drafting a stud QB stabilizes the most important position on the field and this offense would have been a perfect landing spot with 2 solid WRs, 2nd yr RB who looks like a possible stud, o-line getting better and whatever TE they put out there. There's plenty of quality defensive players to choose from with the rest of the picks. With the Geno signing the FO can now focus on defense and a center and probably 2024 start looking into the QBoF.

But it is FAR from certain that whatever QB we draft will be a stud.

Statistically speaking it is very unlikely more than 2 of these 4 QBs will turn into pro bowl level QBs. And it is statistically unlikely that ANY of them will turn into elite QBs.

I realize that it is difficult to properly quantify these things but let's just spitball for a moment.

What do people think the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming an elite QB are? My personal guess is around 15%
What do people thin the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming a Pro Bowl QB are? My personal guess is around 30%
What do you think the odds of the QB the Seahawks drafting becoming as good as Geno Smith was last year? My personal guess is around 55-60%

So from a pure statistical perspective, we are better served trying to rebuild the defense and continue with Geno.
 

JMR

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I would be VERY disappointed if they draft Richardson regardless of the Geno contract.

OTOH, if they really loved Stroud but expected him to be gone by the time they drafted and decided that it was too good an option to pass by, I would probably be fine with that. It's not ideal but I feel like I have to trust PC/JS to make the right move when it comes to a QB. They have their flaws when it comes to talent evaluation but QB and CB are probably their strongest suits.
If Geno's new contract is structured to play out as a 2 year deal, which sounds like it may be, then I can better understand the rationale for QB at 1.5 though I still would rather see that be used on D.
Having said that, I don't see that being very likely. IMO, resigning Geno right out of the gate suggests to me that they believe that they can compete THIS YEAR if they can get the defense shored up.
One more signal could be adding one of the vet free agent defenders that have suddenly become available -- Bobby Wagner, Bud Dupree, Frank Clark, Erick Kendricks, etc. None of those guys are long term options, but they would all address an immediate need that probably must happen in order to no-kidding compete in '23.
I think it is entirely possible that the Hawks focus on rebuilding the defense completely through the draft. If they make a notable FA signing, outside of our own guys, it would be at center. Maybe bring Pocic back. Or McGovern. Or some other center. IMO, bringing in a veteran C would pay off higher dividends than a FA defensive player or even a guard. I can also see the Hawks reworking Jackson and Harris' contract to avoid needing to fill those spots.
I can't see the team moving forward with current contracts of Gabe Jackson & Shelby Harris. Depending on the details of Geno's deal, you probably have to do something with those cap hits in order to address other roster weaknesses. I agree we'll see a D-heavy draft, but I also will not blink if they grab a RB somewhere in the top half of the draft.
 

Anointed One

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I would be perfectly fine with the Hawks trading down from 5 to 10ish if it meant a future 1st. Not sure how many more draft picks they would want in this draft as they already have 10 draft picks.
I wouldn't be shocked to see us trade down from #5 and #20 to accumulate more picks in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds... Remember when we signed Matt Flynn to a 3 year deal, we drafted RW in the 3rd... I can see them drafting a QB w/ our 2nd or 3rd round picks this year...
 

flyerhawk

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I can't see the team moving forward with current contracts of Gabe Jackson & Shelby Harris. Depending on the details of Geno's deal, you probably have to do something with those cap hits in order to address other roster weaknesses. I agree we'll see a D-heavy draft, but I also will not blink if they grab a RB somewhere in the top half of the draft.

They are either going to rework Harris and Jackson's contracts or cut them. If they grab a RB it will be later in the draft.
 

JMR

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I wouldn't be shocked to see us trade down from #5 and #20 to accumulate more picks in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds... Remember when we signed Matt Flynn to a 3 year deal, we drafted RW in the 3rd... I can see them drafting a QB w/ our 2nd or 3rd round picks this year...
And the plain truth is we have to get a backup QB at some point because as of now we do not have one under contract. And since Geno's 2023 cap hit might be north of $20M (I hope not, but it's a real possibility given the rumored amount of guaranteed money), the backup QB almost assuredly will be a rookie or a super cheap free agent.
 

flyerhawk

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I wouldn't be shocked to see us trade down from #5 and #20 to accumulate more picks in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds... Remember when we signed Matt Flynn to a 3 year deal, we drafted RW in the 3rd... I can see them drafting a QB w/ our 2nd or 3rd round picks this year...

I would be surprised if they add a lot more picks in this draft. We already have 10 picks. Practically speaking, I don't see us adding many more. There are only so many roster spots.
 

JMR

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If they grab a RB it will be later in the draft.
I am not so sure. This front office has drafted RBs earlier than we expected a few times in the past when we seemingly had our starter nailed down. I can see that happening in this draft as well because I think Pete likes having 2 quality guys there.
 

flyerhawk

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And the plain truth is we have to get a backup QB at some point because as of now we do not have one under contract. And since Geno's 2023 cap hit might be north of $20M (I hope not, but it's a real possibility given the rumored amount of guaranteed money), the backup QB almost assuredly will be a rookie or a super cheap free agent.

I expect his cap hit for 2023 to be a little under 20M. My guess is the signing bonus will be ~46-50 million.
 

flyerhawk

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I am not so sure. This front office has drafted RBs earlier than we expected a few times in the past when we seemingly had our starter nailed down. I can see that happening in this draft as well because I think Pete likes having 2 quality guys there.

Hmmmm. Maybe. But I think past examples are a little misleading. They drafted Penny because none of the RBs we had, at the time, could stay on the field. Penny was SUPPOSED to be a workhorse. They draft K9 because Penny couldn't stay on the field.

It really wouldn't make a lot of sense to draft ANOTHER RB early in the draft to compete with K9.
 

JMR

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I expect his cap hit for 2023 to be a little under 20M. My guess is the signing bonus will be ~46-50 million.
Salk just said it sounds like the guaranteed money is a little less than initial reports, which is good news. I was hoping for a '23 cap hit of about 8% and it may end up being right in there.
 

MrS

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Hmmmm. Maybe. But I think past examples are a little misleading. They drafted Penny because none of the RBs we had, at the time, could stay on the field. Penny was SUPPOSED to be a workhorse. They draft K9 because Penny couldn't stay on the field.

It really wouldn't make a lot of sense to draft ANOTHER RB early in the draft to compete with K9.
drafting a RB every year on day 3 is a no brainer.
 

JMR

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Hmmmm. Maybe. But I think past examples are a little misleading. They drafted Penny because none of the RBs we had, at the time, could stay on the field. Penny was SUPPOSED to be a workhorse. They draft K9 because Penny couldn't stay on the field.

It really wouldn't make a lot of sense to draft ANOTHER RB early in the draft to compete with K9.
Almost all of us were pretty surprised by the Penny pick and many of us didn't really like it at the time. And they drafted Christine Michael in the 2nd round in 2013 when we had one of the best RBs in the league. I think it's happened enough times that it can't be written off as misleading. Pete likes to have more than 1 ballcarrier, and they have shown they are ok with a relatively early pick at the position when they already have a starter they like.
 

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Spotrac has changed the contract from 3/105 to 3/75. Don't know if this is accurate,

Ok, the remaining $30 million appear to be incentives.
 

flyerhawk

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Ok, the remaining $30 million appear to be incentives.

This deal is looking better and better.

So 40 million guaranteed. 28 million total comp in 2023 which most of that likely being SB. If we assume that they tried to maximize 2023 cap savings let's say they went with 2 million in salary for 2023. Which means 26 million SB which means a little under 9 million per year. So 2023 cap hit would be around 11-12 million. IF they went with lowest cap hit possible which they probably only do if they plan to be aggressive with FAs.
 

JMR

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This deal is looking better and better.

So 40 million guaranteed. 28 million total comp in 2023 which most of that likely being SB. If we assume that they tried to maximize 2023 cap savings let's say they went with 2 million in salary for 2023. Which means 26 million SB which means a little under 9 million per year. So 2023 cap hit would be around 11-12 million. IF they went with lowest cap hit possible which they probably only do if they plan to be aggressive with FAs.
That's a good setup. If it's right around what you say, there isn't a legit complaint about the deal unless you just didn't want Geno at all.
 

wilwhite

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Geno making significantly less than any other starter not on a rookie deal, but significantly more than clipboard holders. Seems very reasonable.
 

wilwhite

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100 million total contract. 40-50 guaranteed money. 3 years. Total number and years might change to make it more cap friendly. AAV in the high 20s to 30.
You were close. You've got to be happy with how it played out.
 

flyerhawk

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You were close. You've got to be happy with how it played out.

I'm pretty happy that they were able to commit significantly less than I thought they would. Although my initial prediction was a 3 year 100 million dollar deal with 46 million in signing bonus. So this contract really isn't that much lower in effect. But this does make year 3 more palatable if things work out.
 
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