Game #1 Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals 9/11/2016

[BigKen]

• 
  
  Mike Reiss

ESPN Staff Writer
Covered Patriots since 1997
Joined ESPN in 2009

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- There was a noticeable shift in tone and mindset in the New England Patriots’ locker room on Sunday, which was summed up by receiver Chris Hogan.

“This is what counts now,” he said. “The preseason [and training] camp, you’re putting in your work, learning the offense, trying to get to know guys. Now we kind of kick it up a notch, the sense of urgency goes up. These games mean everything.”

The Patriots’ first game, on the road against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Sept. 11, is arguably the most challenging opener the franchise has had in Bill Belichick’s 17 years as head coach. There will be several days ahead to dissect various aspects of the matchup, but for starters, one area that clearly has the Patriots’ attention is the Cardinals’ success in creating turnovers.

Last year, Arizona’s 33 turnovers were the second highest total in the NFL. Two years ago, they had 25 to rank in the middle of the NFL pack, while in 2013 their 30 turnovers were tied for sixth-best in the league.

In all, that’s 88 turnovers created in the first three seasons of head coach Bruce Arians’ tenure.

As a point of comparison, the Patriots -- also known for their ability to pile up takeaways -- have 75 over that span.

So what has contributed to the Cardinals' success?

Let’s turn the floor over to Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to explain.

Belichick noted how the Cardinals’ base 3-4 defense rushes five defenders “a good percentage of the time.” He also said with 211-pound linebacker Deone Bucannon, the Cardinals’ base D could almost be viewed as a nickel package (5 defensive backs), and the nickel is essentially a dime package (6 defensive backs).

Because of that, “they have a lot of team speed on the field.”

How Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and Co., handle the speed of coordinator James Bettcher’s unit -- and in turn avoid the turnover trap -- will be a major factor in whether New England can win.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said the Cardinals scored 140 points off turnovers last year, also showing the ability to score “bonus points” on D as well.

“Like every game, taking care of the football is going to be important,” McDaniels said, adding that the Cardinals “force you to handle the blitz on all three downs.”

“They do an exceptional job of putting you in position to try to take the ball away – whether that be creating fumbles, interceptions or through pressuring the quarterback.”

 

[BigKen]

There are a lot of media 'experts' who believe that the Cardinals are the runaway choice to be Super Bowl LI Champions.

Based on facts, the Cardinals were the 4th(?) best team in the NFL in 2015? They are now #1 by adding Chandler Jones to the defense? The same Chandler Jones who will now terrorize Jimmy Garappolo? The same Chandler Jones who played for the Patriots for four seasons and was traded by Bill Belichick to the Cardinals? Any chance that Belichick might know every weakness in Jones' game? ESPN has pretty much renamed Jones to Watt2 or should that be Watt Too?

If the Cardinals gave any indication in the preseason to their new offense and defense, I was not impressed by their 1-3 performance. They won Game 4 against the World Champs, but let's be honest, is game four a real indicator? The real game is #3 and they played the Texans and got snockered 34-24. They lost #1 to the Raiders 24-10 and #2 to the chargers 19-3.

If the Patriots play defense like have in the preseason, the Cardinals are going to have a hell of a time scoring against them. I think JG will have some trouble at the start, but will settle down and by the end of third quarter will be moving the offense very well and very smoothly. Mistakes will cost one team or the other, but I think the final score will be 31-21 Patriots.

 

[Southieinnc]

Many fans are predicting a 3-1 or 2-2 start to get us "past the suspension"
Don't let anyone fool you. The Patriots are in it to win, not giving any "default" win to Az.
This game will be played on the field but will be won in practice.....

 

[CreepCreep2014]

Defense will keep us in it, but for how long is the question? They cannot be on the field all day. Offense has to be productive. Not liking our chances, but I have been wrong before...

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I've got a bad feeling about this one as well. Hope I'm wrong? A couple big ST plays combined with a couple defensive plays who knows? Jimmy G just protect the ball. Go Pats.

 

[BigKen]

The Pats are going to start with a heavy dose of running. Don't be surprised to see offset TE formations with Cameron Fleming playing TE on the right side. If the Patriots get into a 3rd and short, we'll see James White or DJ Foster and look for the quick out pass or a short screen. The offense will be very simple to give JG every opportunity to stay on the field and attempt to control the clock. JG will have to pick up the defense and watch for the all out blitz. The Cards will send 7 after him and he's got to get rid of the ball quick. If he can flip the ball to the RB on a quick out, AZ will have play more honest and only rush 5.

On defense, watch for 6 on the line. 5 will rush Palmer and he cannot run. Sheard or Collins will be the Mike. Sheard will just go in full tilt. Collins will do his 2 steps back as if to drop into coverage and then blitz right where the center should have been. Palmer will be throwing a lot of balls away or looking for the hot out. A solid rush will prevent palmer from going deep. Hit him a few times early and he'll be out of his comfort zone for the entire game.

Arians will play his weekly offense and defense. There are no secrets, no special formations.

Belichick will make McDaniels and Patricia plan specifically for the Cardinals. They will have torn apart 2015 and all four preseason games this year. As always, BB will have several special wrinkles, just for the Cards.

I think the Patriots have all of the tools to outscore the Cards, and I think they'll win this one.

 

[BF4L]

Pats are for sure going to try and run run run. I see them getting a tight win because of a Palmer turnover late in game.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

The Pats are going to start with a heavy dose of running. Don't be surprised to see offset TE formations with Cameron Fleming playing TE on the right side. If the Patriots get into a 3rd and short, we'll see James White or DJ Foster and look for the quick out pass or a short screen. The offense will be very simple to give JG every opportunity to stay on the field and attempt to control the clock. JG will have to pick up the defense and watch for the all out blitz. The Cards will send 7 after him and he's got to get rid of the ball quick. If he can flip the ball to the RB on a quick out, AZ will have play more honest and only rush 5.

On defense, watch for 6 on the line. 5 will rush Palmer and he cannot run. Sheard or Collins will be the Mike. Sheard will just go in full tilt. Collins will do his 2 steps back as if to drop into coverage and then blitz right where the center should have been. Palmer will be throwing a lot of balls away or looking for the hot out. A solid rush will prevent palmer from going deep. Hit him a few times early and he'll be out of his comfort zone for the entire game.

Arians will play his weekly offense and defense. There are no secrets, no special formations.

Belichick will make McDaniels and Patricia plan specifically for the Cardinals. They will have torn apart 2015 and all four preseason games this year. As always, BB will have several special wrinkles, just for the Cards.

I think the Patriots have all of the tools to outscore the Cards, and I think they'll win this one.

I like it. I would feel a lot better if NE actually had a decent RB. Who knows maybe Blount has been saving himself?

 

[BigKen]

I love DJ's speed out of the backfield. He's as fast as Lewis and a little bit bigger. He's got those moves that can get him out of trouble, just like Lewis.

JG worries me because he hasn't played much with Edelman or at all with Amendola. I wonder if he can take advantage of what they offer.

Blount will start and he'll get the ball. He just can't start stutter stepping before he gets to the line of scrimmage. When he hesitates, he loses 2 yards. If he piles straight ahead he always gets 3 or 4. I don't want to see JG trying to go deep or even longer than 12 yards until very late in the game.

I do want to see more than 3 guys rushing Palmer. He needs 4-6 seconds to drop back and get the ball off. He's got a good offensive line but not great. Add a wrinkle and hit Palmer a couple of times and he'll be firing way to early on most of his passes, giving the secondary great opportunities to knock the ball down or pick him off.

I'll predict that the Pats pick off three passes tonight........McCourty, Ryan and Harmon (end zone very late)

 

[BigKen]

The Las Vegas line......

9/11 8:30 ET At Arizona -6 New England O/U 47

According to CSNNE This the Patriots worse underdog line sine 2002.

Vegas is expecting the Cards to blow out the Patriots. Cards averaged over 30 points a game
in 2015 and everyone assumes they will just pick right up where they left off.

 

[CreepCreep2014]

The Las Vegas line......

9/11 8:30 ET At Arizona -6 New England O/U 47

According to CSNNE This the Patriots worse underdog line sine 2002.

Vegas is expecting the Cards to blow out the Patriots. Cards averaged over 30 points a game
in 2015 and everyone assumes they will just pick right up where they left off.

So is NE not playing defense this game? So no Brady means we are going to get blown out, but with Brady we don't? I don't think this is going to be an easy game, but i don't think NE will lose by 30.

 

[BigKen]

I don't think the Cardinals are anywhere as good as everyone thinks they are. Opposing teams have had a chance to see what Arians did last year and defenses pretty much shut them down in the preseason. Their defense had trouble stopping every team they played in the preseason.

The preseason may not count, but every team tries to win, regardless what the media thinks. Cards lost the first three and beat the Broncos in game four. We all know that game four is the make or break game for about 25 guys on the roster and a "don't get hurt game" for the regulars.

Don't forget.....BB plans his offense and defense for every opponent. He knows what makes the Cards offense go and I'll guarantee he's putting some stuff in place to make it sputter.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

Well said BK.

 

[BigKen]

Jimmy G. Will Have His Feet Put to the Fire in his 1st Start
The Patriots will enter the 2016 season without Tom Brady as the starting QB for the first time since 2001. The team is navigating in uncharted waters and QB Jimmy Garoppolo is starting in his first NFL game. They’re facing the Arizona Cardinals on the road, a team that many are picking to represent the NFC in the next Super Bowl. So how do the Patriots put Garoppolo in a position to win?

Nobody blitzed more than the Cardinals did in 2015. They have a deep and talented defensive line but had trouble getting QB pressure without dialing up the blitz. They think they’ve added the necessary pieces in trading for the Patriots’ Chandler Jones and drafting Robert Nkemdiche. Their LB/S Deone Bucannon is their A-gap blitzer and he’s a disruptor up the middle.

Defensive coordinator James Bettcher is no doubt going to try to dial up the pressure early and often on Garoppolo. It is his first NFL start and they’ll try to overload him at every opportunity. Plus, their defensive sparkplug is back, the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu. So how will Josh McDaniels and the Patriots offense cope without Brady who is among the best at recognizing and defeating the blitz? And in doing so, putting Jimmy G. and the offense in the best position to succeed?


Tight Ends Will Be Key: Garoppolo will have to lean on his bookend tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett on Sunday night. And it starts in the trenches. Arizona will expect the Pats to chip Jones while in the passing game but one area that’s always been a trouble spot for him was his run defense.

He’s going to be aggressive and coming hard after Jimmy G. and McDaniels has to use that against him. Both Bennett and Gronk are excellent run blockers. With both of them as well as FB James Develin in the backfield, look for the Patriots to try to run the ball, something they were unable to do down the stretch a year ago right at the Cardinals. And specifically Jones. It won’t be an easy task since they were the #6 team against the run a year ago.

The running game will open up the passing game utilizing the tight ends against the Linebackers and Safeties. Gronkowski is a smart as well as a physical presence on the field, he and Brady were always able to sense where the open the spots will be. He’ll have to quickly get on the same page as Garoppolo. One of his tight ends will probably be his check down and they’ll stay in to block on occasion as well.

Limit the Playbook …Initially: Garoppolo has been preparing for this moment for the past couple of years, but let’s face it, his head is going to be swimming given that it is opening night and the Pats are on the road in Arizona.

So rather than expect him to do all of the things that Brady does, McDaniels can make it easier by limiting the playbook and simplifying things for him until he finds a comfort level. And that goes not just for Sunday night but moving forward as well.

By now after all of the training camp practices and preseason games, the coaches have a good feel for what he does best and where he struggles. So look for them to put Garoppolo in the best position to succeed by focusing on what HE does best rather than what Brady does in a given situation. Given that he missed all of the spring and summer, I don’t expect Danny Amendola to be a big part of the offense in Week 1.

Find his Go-to Guy…Hogan: Brady has had enormous success with Gronkowski and Julian Edelman over the past several years and the three of them at times appear to be of one mind on the field. And you can bet that the Cardinals know that as well. They’ll focus on stopping Gronk and Edelman drawing plenty of attention from either Patrick Peterson or Mathieu, it may be a great time for Chris Hogan to be targeted.

The newcomer to New England had a good summer, he was banged up for a while but has shown that put the time in and is well versed in the offense. While not as quick in the short area as Edelman, Hogan has more size and straight line speed. We saw that in the preseason with he and Brady connecting on a 33-yard touchdown strike. And starting with a clean slate here in New England, Garoppolo could be looking to find his own comfort level guy in the offense.

Hogan comes back and makes a nice catch in front of Biggers

Hogan may be the guy that Garoppolo finds his comfort level with. With Edelman and Gronkowski being the main focus of the Arizona defense, they can’t double everyone. So winning the 1-on-1 matchups will be key for Hogan. McDaniels may use him in the manner that he usually reserves Edelman for Brady. Give Jimmy G. the easy, short throws that will allow him to find a rhythm and a comfort level in the pocket.

It isn’t going to be easy but if the Patriots defense can keep it close, they will have a puncher’s chance of putting Garoppolo and the offense in the position for a win.

 

[SDGuy73]

I'm hoping Gronk sits this game. He is still bothered by his hamstring. He doesn't need to play until its 100%. Hamstring injuries suck and can be season ending.

 

[Carnzo]

I'm hoping Gronk sits this game. He is still bothered by his hamstring. He doesn't need to play until its 100%. Hamstring injuries suck and can be season ending.

Looks like Gronk will sit this week, not good news for Jimmy.
Would it be wrong of me to wish all the Cards wake up Sunday with a bad stomach bug?

 

[SDGuy73]

Looks like Gronk will sit this week, not good news for Jimmy.
Would it be wrong of me to wish all the Cards wake up Sunday with a bad stomach bug?

Yes. But I totally understand it.

 

[CreepCreep2014]

No Gronk, but we still have 3 decent TE. Marty might be the one to benefit. No reason to play Gronk till he is 100%. This might explain why BB kept 4 TE's.

I really hope with Flowers, Long, Mingo, Collins, we get to see some serious pass rush. Gotta get some hits on the QB this yr...

 

[redseat]

If Gronk plays the patriots have a much better chance... I just wish this game was in Foxborough, regardless if Gronk plays or not

 

[redseat]

ugg... is it offical that there will be no Gronk?