Future Cap Planning - Trades and Releases 2015

[gvsulaker82]

GulfShores/Foley for 10+ years, went back to vegas last yr but had to come back here in january for family purposes

Grandparents used to go to gulf shores every winter in the 90s early 00s.

 

[gvsulaker82]

It starts in the trenches. Win the line battle first.

I agree, why would the most important player on the defense be the furthest from the ball at the start of the play? It has and always will start on dline/oline. You want a winner? Do what the lions have been doing and start there and build out. They are close to being a damn good team. This draft could do it. Ppl are complaining because the CBS suck, they would be wanting to trade a CB for a DT if the situation was reversed.

 

[Naughtymax]

I agree, why would the most important player on the defense be the furthest from the ball at the start of the play? It has and always will start on dline/oline. You want a winner? Do what the lions have been doing and start there and build out. They are close to being a damn good team. This draft could do it. Ppl are complaining because the CBS suck, they would be wanting to trade a CB for a DT if the situation was reversed.

I love the lines, but determining value on the field is actually really easy: Look at the average salaries of the top-10 or top-15 or top-30 players at the position. Supply and demand, simple as that. You could make a legit argument that DT is as valuable as CB but CBs are paid more because good DTs grow on trees and good CBs are as rare as truth from a politician. The CB is a more valuable position because smart professionals pay more for it in a true free market.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

It has and always will start on dline/oline. You want a winner? Do what the lions have been doing and start there and build out. They are close to being a damn good team.

Then what has happened to the Lions? They have had Suh/Fairley in the middle of their DL the past 3 years and they are 21-27. They have had some quality DE's playing along side them too. Avril for two of the years, Ansah last year.

All that has done for the Lions is made them a middle of the road defense. You could argue -- the Seahawks built their team from the back 7 in. They had Earl Thomas, Cam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, etc. Then took Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner and then this past year they signed Avril and Bennett to be DE's.

There is no right or wrong way to build a team. Winning the battle in the trenches improves your odds of winning, but you have to have someone to run or throw the ball on offense or it doesn't matter and on defense, you have to have a quality back 7.

IMO, I think Detroit would be better off without Suh if he demands a contract that will make him one of the highest paid defensive players in the NFL. I just don't see the value in that deal, unless he puts up the type of numbers he did in his rookie year (60+ tackles and 10 sacks).

Detroit could sign multiple quality players for what they may have to pay Suh on his own.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

This offseason will be especially important for a number of Lions including:

Full article here; Detroit Lions players say hello to new coach Jim Caldwell with offseason program beginning Monday | Detroit Free Press | freep.com

Nick Fairley: The Lions already have decided against picking up Fairley’s fifth-year option, but they stillinsist they’re interested in signing him to a long-term deal — if he starts to show the consistency and work ethic he needs to be great. Fairley needs to show up in shape (and stay there) so the new staff believes he’s serious about change.

Mikel Leshoure: Mayhew said last week he still has high hopes for Leshoure, a second-round pick in 2011 who has just 217 career carries. It won’t be easy to overtake Reggie Bush and Joique Bell on the depth chart, but Leshoure could push his way into a role or out of town with his work this spring.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

IMO, I think Detroit would be better off without Suh if he demands a contract that will make him one of the highest paid defensive players in the NFL. I just don't see the value in that deal, unless he puts up the type of numbers he did in his rookie year (60+ tackles and 10 sacks).

Detroit could sign multiple quality players for what they may have to pay Suh on his own.

IMO, If Suh commands more than 13 mil per yr (he avg 12.975 mil over the 1st 4 years of his rookie contract) then Mayhew needs to trade him for future cap relief and that kind of money (13 mil avg.) will still cripple this team. I highly doubt Mayhew trades him. Some will argue that huge increases will be coming each year in salary cap and that will offset extending Suh. There are many players drafted/signed within the last 3 years that will have pretty significant cap hit increases also . Suh is my favorite Def. player and I'd hate to lose him but financially speaking, he'll be a detriment to this team until the new league year in 2017. Calvin's cap hits will kill this team as well in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to the tune of 20.558 mil, 24.008 mil and 21.358 mil respectively (that's elite qb $$). I certainly wouldn't re-structure CJ to find relief for the sole purpose he's been beat to hell these last couple of years and he's turning 29 this fall.

Gotta pick your poison.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

When it's all said and done, I think we can put to bed any likelihood of Suh being traded unless he wants out of Detroit. Mayhew/Lewand have showed us in the past they'll sacrifice $$ for good or even great players (just look at CJ's deal and even Staff's to a degree). They want to get to the SuperBowl as much as the fans want that and the window is closing/closed by 2016. I'm sticking to my guns in thinking/believing that they have 3 years to do this. WHY ? 1) Caldwell new HC and staff, they will get 3 years to make it happen or will be sent to the streets (Mayhew/Lewand also hopefully). 2) Cap relief will come in new league year 2017 meaning they can get out of Staff's/CJ's big cap hits relatively cheap; 22 mil/5.5 mil dead $ (staffy), 21mil/4.8 mil dead $ (CJ). 3) CJ will be 31 at that point. Staffy improves or stays the same ? There's plenty of other reasons to note. No need to do that.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Suh is my favorite Def. player and I'd hate to lose him but financially speaking, he'll be a detriment to this team until the new league year in 2017.

I agree wholeheartedly. He is my favorite player on the Lions, I love watching him play and would hate to see him on another team, but if they give him a monster contract and make him the highest paid defensive player or close to it -- I don't see how Detroit is going to get better defensively, as the extra money they pay him will have to come from other positions on defense, as unfortunately, Detroit isn't letting up on trying to field an unstoppable offense.

We've had Suh for 4 years and I believe last year was the best statistically the defense fared and we were still middle of the road, and we had a cup cake schedule.

 

[lionstop1]

So, they plan on re-signing Fairley hunh? They will definitely give Suh more than 13 million a year.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

So, they plan on re-signing Fairley hunh? They will definitely give Suh more than 13 million a year.

They may re-sign Fairley, but not for 5.5 million per year, if he continues to be such an inconsistent player.

In regards to Suh -- if it takes more than the contract they signed him for his rookie year to get him back on the Lions, I'd let him walk. He was already the highest paid DT in the game and nothing he does puts him in the conversation as the best defensive player in the game.

If he had averaged 60+ tackles and 10 sacks (his rookie year numbers) over the length of his contract, I'd have no problem giving him more money. 44 tackles and 5.5 sacks, which he put up last year, doesn't constitute a contract for the highest paid defensive player in the league.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

So, they plan on re-signing Fairley hunh? They will definitely give Suh more than 13 million a year.

but they still insist they’re interested in signing him to a long-term deal

stating "they plan on re-signing (like you did)" or what the article stated (they're interested) are two different statements. Maybe it's my comprehension level, sorry if that's the case. :rollseyes:

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

They may re-sign Fairley, but not for 5.5 million per year, if he continues to be such an inconsistent player. QUOTE]

I'll say some HC out there, should Fairley not re-sign with Det bc he's pissed and wants out of there now, hypothetically speaking due to the non pick-up of that 5th yr, will convince a GM that he can motivate Fairley and change his work ethic, immaturity etc. and offer him a 5 yr 35-40 mil contract should he have a really good year. The kid has the tools to be great. Isn't that how draft prospects are looked at, Potential, not to mention he's only 26 and just coming into his prime (age wise). Maybe someone will note that Schwartz couldn't motivate him but XX HC/DC can. If Fairley does have a really good year, I still wouldn't re-sign for the mere fact of being inconsistent for 3 years up to the "prove it demand" by not picking up his 5th year. He'll resort back to old ways once he gets that guaranteed money on his 2nd contract, IMO. I'd take absolutely no chance on him regardless of what happens this season should he remain. Remember, the coaches will be looking at him closely over these next 3-4 weeks to see if he has taken their advice from a month ago regarding Mayhew's public comments about him.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

So, they plan on re-signing Fairley hunh? They will definitely give Suh more than 13 million a year.

I'm afraid you're dead on right with that comment and it will hurt this team more than we all realize. Suh's cap hit for 2014 is 22,412,500 and his dead money is 19, 475,000. That 3 mil in savings in a trade buys us 2014 DT prospect Aaron Donald. Last years #10 pick, Bama OG Chance Warmack, received a 4 year 12,166,652 with Signing Bonus $7,228,472....cap hits of

2013...2,212,118
2014...2,765,147
2015...3,318,177
2016...3,871,206

There'll be about a 2.5 % increase if not mistaken. I'm probably wrong but I think that is close. Now, what could you do with the savings from Suh at a minimum avg of 13 mil per yr compared to Donald at 3 mil per year. All this is hypothetically speaking. Do not forget to add in Suh's current 22 mil owed to him on top of a new ?5 yr 65 mil extension? that becomes a 6 yr 87 mil deal...or avg 14.5 mil per year.. We know they cannot afford to backload this extension due to future caps and Lewand stated this two weeks ago when commenting that extending Suh would have no bearing on freeing up money for FA signings or draft $$ to sign rookies.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

They may re-sign Fairley, but not for 5.5 million per year, if he continues to be such an inconsistent player.QUOTE]

Ex-Lion DT Sammie Lee Hill, received a 3 year 11, 400,000.00 from Tenn in 2013 and he was a rotational player prior to that. That's an avg. of 3.8 mil per year. I would think Fairley would be in line with these below in the link, who are in the 5 thru 10 slot should he play more consistently;

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Defensive Tackle

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I would think Fairley would be in line with these below in the link, who are in the 5 thru 10 slot should he play more consistently;

You have much more faith in Fairley than I do. I don't see a team making him one of the top 10 paid DT's, when he hasn't been able to stay healthy (missed 10 games in 3 years), lacks a strong work ethic and disappears for long stretches of time during games.

He'd have to have an absolute monster year in 2014 to get a contract like a lot of those guys. In Fairley's career, he has played in 38 games and only has 58 tackles and 12 sacks, this while lining up next to a guy who is letting him face one on one blocking the majority of the time.

 

[Quackerjacked]

Everyone is upset at Mayhew about not grabbing the last year of the contract. I honestly don't expect him to turn it on all that much this year. He is what he is, a superbly talented fat lazy slob.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I would think Fairley would be in line with these below in the link, who are in the 5 thru 10 slot should he play more consistently;

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Defensive Tackle

You have much more faith in Fairley than I do. I don't see a team making him one of the top 10 paid DT's, when he hasn't been able to stay healthy (missed 10 games in 3 years), lacks a strong work ethic and disappears for long stretches of time during games.

Everyone is upset at Mayhew about not grabbing the last year of the contract. I honestly don't expect him to turn it on all that much this year. He is what he is, a superbly talented fat lazy slob.

Trustme
Not really outside of the possibility "if money (2nd contract) motivates Fairley" then I do expect him to be much better for this year only. Me having faith in him down the road, not so much if at all.

Quackerjacked
Not me by a longshot. I'm pretty sure I was one of the few who stated first that Fairley needs to go regardless. I'm not changing my mind even if he has a monstrous year.

Also, his 5th year club option was valued at 5.5 mil by averaging the salaries of DT 's ranked 4th thru 23rd in money. That was part of the new CBA regarding 5th year club options.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

However we spin/debate the situation with Fairley, I'll be absolutely shocked if Mayhew doesn't draft a DT by/before our 4th round pick at #111. Mayhew better be prepared for Fairley's departure no matter how that comes about.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I'll just to throw something out there for us to ponder for a day or two. Fairley is from Mobile and Dallas could use a DT (some mocks have them selecting Donald/Jernigan) when looking at their roster. I know Dallas just signed Melton but the remaining DT's aren't much. I saw reports stating they expect Crawford to have a lot of potential.. Maybe a new venue for Fairley might motivate him and puts him close to home. He is a Momma's boy as stated in several local articles. Besides, Fairley was caught doing 100 m.p.h. on I-10 and it's only 588 miles from Dallas to Mobile, hell that's only a 6 hr drive or a 75 minute flight.



(DM = dead money below) Dallas has 12.851 mil in cap space. At the present time with the reports of lazy, immature etc already known, we might be able to get their 2014 3rd and 4th round picks #78 and #119.. A 2nd round pick might be unlikely but worth some feelers.

25 yr old Terrell McClain............ 3 yr 3.0 mil....... (300k DM)...... UFA 2017
27 yr old Henry Melton.............. 1 yr 3.5 mil....... (1 mil DM)...... UFA 2017 (club options in 2015/2016)
24 yr. old Tyrone Crawford........ 4 yr 2.7 mil .......(288k DM)....... UFA 2016
25 yr. old Frank Kearse .............3 yr 1.9 mil .......(0 DM)............ UFA 2016
24 yr. old Ben Bass ...................3 yr 1.4 mil....... (17k DM)........ UFA 2015
28 yr. old Nick Hayden.............. 2 yr 1.3 mil....... (0 DM)............ UFA 2015


What are your thoughts ????

 

[Naughtymax]

I'll just to throw something out there for us to ponder for a day or two. Fairley is from Mobile and Dallas could use a DT (some mocks have them selecting Donald/Jernigan) when looking at their roster. I know Dallas just signed Melton but the remaining DT's aren't much. I saw reports stating they expect Crawford to have a lot of potential.. Maybe a new venue for Fairley might motivate him and puts him close to home. He is a Momma's boy as stated in several local articles. Besides, Fairley was caught doing 100 m.p.h. on I-10 and it's only 588 miles from Dallas to Mobile, hell that's only a 6 hr drive or a 75 minute flight.



(DM = dead money below) Dallas has 12.851 mil in cap space. At the present time with the reports of lazy, immature etc already known, we might be able to get their 2014 3rd and 4th round picks #78 and #119.. A 2nd round pick might be unlikely but worth some feelers.

25 yr old Terrell McClain............ 3 yr 3.0 mil....... (300k DM)...... UFA 2017
27 yr old Henry Melton.............. 1 yr 3.5 mil....... (1 mil DM)...... UFA 2017 (club options in 2015/2016)
24 yr. old Tyrone Crawford........ 4 yr 2.7 mil .......(288k DM)....... UFA 2016
25 yr. old Frank Kearse .............3 yr 1.9 mil .......(0 DM)............ UFA 2016
24 yr. old Ben Bass ...................3 yr 1.4 mil....... (17k DM)........ UFA 2015
28 yr. old Nick Hayden.............. 2 yr 1.3 mil....... (0 DM)............ UFA 2015


What are your thoughts ????

If a team were to offer up Fairley for a 3rd this year I'd take it outright. This is a deep draft, and by not picking up the last year of his rookie contract, we basically agreed that he's gone for a supplementary pick that will probably be no higher than a fourth in 2016.