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Fantasy Football News and Rumors

SmokingMonkey

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Ah, the dog days of summer, the spring of the NFL, where every rookie is impressing coaches and getting first-team reps and a camp highlight, every second-year player has "really improved," everyone is "finally healthy," and FF free agents are blossoming with potential upside.







Did I just pick up Demetric Felton in Old School based on basically nothing? Yes. Yes, I did.

If hunt gets traded, Chubb gets hurt, he could slide into the passing down role while D'Ernest is the thumper, it could happen! I picked up Felton in a couple leagues last yr and dropped him
 

molsaniceman

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Ah, the dog days of summer, the spring of the NFL, where every rookie is impressing coaches and getting first-team reps and a camp highlight, every second-year player has "really improved," everyone is "finally healthy," and FF free agents are blossoming with potential upside.







Did I just pick up Demetric Felton in Old School based on basically nothing? Yes. Yes, I did.
here u go has anyone ever figured out what bb WILL DO :suds:

NBC's Peter King believes Rhamondre Stevenson will get the "bulk of the carries" for the Patriots this season.​

King visited Patriots camp this week. King goes as far as to say Stevenson will be the "RB1" by mid-season. It's a bold proclamation, though King also acknowledges that since this is the Pats, no back is going to come out and gobble up something like 300 carries. Stevenson saw far more work than a typical rookie Patriots back in 2021 and has been raising eyebrows with his pass catching so far this summer. Damien Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal. The intrigue increases.
 

molsaniceman

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Seahawks signed WR DK Metcalf to a three-year, $72 million extension through 2025.​

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the deal includes $58.2 million guaranteed, as well as a $30 million signing bonus. That latter number is apparently a record for a wideout. The agreement also means Metcalf will be a free agent again following his age-28 season. It's a sensible expenditure for one of the league's most explosive big-play threats, one who had a 1,300-yard campaign at age 23. Metcalf, of course, fell below the 1,000-yard threshold amongst Seattle's 2021 Russell Wilson weirdness and injury issues. Despite Metcalf's prodigious talent, a statistical bounce-back is far from guaranteed this season with Geno Smith and Drew Lock vying for quarterback duties. Metcalf is a volatile WR2 whose Dynasty stock badly needs a new quarterback.
 

Trudem

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:think:
Seems to be his mantra every year.
Still seems to end up as a top 12 fantasy QB most of the time.

Cousins is the Rodney Dangerfield of QB.
Because he rarely/never does it in crunch time. His prime time record/performance is abysmal
 

TREFF

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If hunt gets traded, Chubb gets hurt, he could slide into the passing down role while D'Ernest is the thumper, it could happen! I picked up Felton in a couple leagues last yr and dropped him
if you've got the bench room, not a bad stash, especially if your roster has expanded in the offseason and you've got 6 weeks to cut it down. If nothing has changed, its an fairly easy cut, and if something has happened, you've already got him.
 

TREFF

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here u go has anyone ever figured out what bb WILL DO :suds:

NBC's Peter King believes Rhamondre Stevenson will get the "bulk of the carries" for the Patriots this season.​

King visited Patriots camp this week. King goes as far as to say Stevenson will be the "RB1" by mid-season. It's a bold proclamation, though King also acknowledges that since this is the Pats, no back is going to come out and gobble up something like 300 carries. Stevenson saw far more work than a typical rookie Patriots back in 2021 and has been raising eyebrows with his pass catching so far this summer. Damien Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal. The intrigue increases.
As I've laid out a few times before, BB history strongly suggests that when he has an alpha back, he has no problems giving that guy 100-150-200+ more carries than the others. Kevin Mack, Leroy Hoard, Antwaine Smith, Corey Dillon, Maroney, BJE, Ridley, Blount, Michel---in fact, there are more years in his history suggesting the reality is a true lead back and a small committee COP back type backfield than there are that suggest this widely overblown theory of 'you never know what NE's is going to do" is actually reality. More often than not, any year end numbers suggesting full blown committees, generally came about due to injuries to one or more of the backs.

Now the thing is, he has 2 alpha types in Harris and Stevenson, so chances are it will be a split, and maybe one separates a bit, maybe one doesn't. The good thing though, from a fantasy perspective, with Matt Patricia acting as the defacto OC..there's going to be plenty of RB touches for both to be plenty relevant either way.
 

wilwhite

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As I've laid out a few times before, BB history strongly suggests that when he has an alpha back, he has no problems giving that guy 100-150-200+ more carries than the others. Kevin Mack, Leroy Hoard, Antwaine Smith, Corey Dillon, Maroney, BJE, Ridley, Blount, Michel---in fact, there are more years in his history suggesting the reality is a true lead back and a small committee COP back type backfield than there are that suggest this widely overblown theory of 'you never know what NE's is going to do" is actually reality. More often than not, any year end numbers suggesting full blown committees, generally came about due to injuries to one or more of the backs.

Now the thing is, he has 2 alpha types in Harris and Stevenson, so chances are it will be a split, and maybe one separates a bit, maybe one doesn't. The good thing though, from a fantasy perspective, with Matt Patricia acting as the defacto OC..there's going to be plenty of RB touches for both to be plenty relevant either way.
Seasons where a RB averaged 15+ attempts/game under BB
2001 Antowain 17.9
2002 Antowain 15.8
2004 Dillon 23.0
2005 Dillon 17.4
2012 Ridley 18.1
2014 Ridley 15.7
2016 Blount 18.7
2018 Michel 16.1
2019 Michel 15.4

Typically you see around 16 RBs with over 15 attempts/game each season, or one for half the teams, or one per team every other season. Nine in 22 seasons is a little low, but not crazy.
 

TREFF

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Seasons where a RB averaged 15+ attempts/game under BB
2001 Antowain 17.9
2002 Antowain 15.8
2004 Dillon 23.0
2005 Dillon 17.4
2012 Ridley 18.1
2014 Ridley 15.7
2016 Blount 18.7
2018 Michel 16.1
2019 Michel 15.4

Typically you see around 16 RBs with over 15 attempts/game each season, or one for half the teams, or one per team every other season. Nine in 22 seasons is a little low, but not crazy.
If you check those other 13, , I'm willing to bet most of them were due to injuries...very few were by design, and those that were, well, he worked with what he had. I.e..no '3 down' back on the roster
 

Yellow Fuzzies

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If you check those other 13, , I'm willing to bet most of them were due to injuries...very few were by design, and those that were, well, he worked with what he had. I.e..no '3 down' back on the roster
He had James White last few years. He was a third down back.
 

TREFF

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He had James White last few years. He was a third down back.
:) no, not 3rd down back..a three down back..or even a true "lead type"

Those years where the Dion Lewis's or Shane Vareen's or Danny Woodhead's or Burkhead's were the best/last man standing, which forced a close your eyes and throw a dart type situation.


The point being...when BB has a good RB, he rides him..period..when he doesn't, or when that one is unavailable to him, he makes due with whatever is lying around. If there are good RB's on the roster, and not just a collection of specialists or wannabes, there's no mystery as to what he'll do..he'll ride that RB. It's no enigma like so many like to keep throwing out there
 

TREFF

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Seasons where a RB averaged 15+ attempts/game under BB
2001 Antowain 17.9
2002 Antowain 15.8
2004 Dillon 23.0
2005 Dillon 17.4
2012 Ridley 18.1
2014 Ridley 15.7
2016 Blount 18.7
2018 Michel 16.1
2019 Michel 15.4

Typically you see around 16 RBs with over 15 attempts/game each season, or one for half the teams, or one per team every other season. Nine in 22 seasons is a little low, but not crazy.

If you check those other 13, , I'm willing to bet most of them were due to injuries...very few were by design, and those that were, well, he worked with what he had. I.e..no '3 down' back on the roster
As an exanple..2007, TB12 tosses 50 TD's, Maroney and S. Morris averaged 16+ carries a game, both only played about half the season so they didn't show up on this list. But, Maroney had 100 more carries than anyone else on the team ..thus, there was zero question that when he was healthy, he was the guy running the ball. And even when he wasn't healthy, there was still one guy doing the heavy lifting, Morris.
Definitive example of what I'm saying, yet, it's not on that list
 

wilwhite

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As an exanple..2007, TB12 tosses 50 TD's, Maroney and S. Morris averaged 16+ carries a game, both only played about half the season so they didn't show up on this list. But, Maroney had 100 more carries than anyone else on the team ..thus, there was zero question that when he was healthy, he was the guy running the ball. And even when he wasn't healthy, there was still one guy doing the heavy lifting, Morris.
Definitive example of what I'm saying, yet, it's not on that list
They both had 14.2 attempts/game that year, which is why they didn't show up. Morris only played 6 games and had 85 carries; Maroney played 13 and had 185.

Faulk, who played in every game and "started" 8 games, only had 62 carries the whole year.
 

Bandit

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Hell Treff I don't know why you're trying to convince the rest of us, either you or Harold already own him in every damn league so all the rest of us hope he sucks. :) In fact since I don't own Harris either I hope they split the early down work right down the middle and James White plays every damn 3rd down.
 

HaroldSeattle

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Hell Treff I don't know why you're trying to convince the rest of us, either you or Harold already own him in every damn league so all the rest of us hope he sucks. :) In fact since I don't own Harris either I hope they split the early down work right down the middle and James White plays every damn 3rd down.
Don't think I own any shares of Stevenson any more, he's all @TREFF now.
 

TREFF

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They both had 14.2 attempts/game that year, which is why they didn't show up. Morris only played 6 games and had 85 carries; Maroney played 13 and had 185.

Faulk, who played in every game and "started" 8 games, only had 62 carries the whole year.
Dunno where I got 16??

But..point remains the same

And the issue at question wasn't, is the NE RB carrying a heavy workload, it was, is there a ryhme or reason to what BB does

And there is, a predictable one, usually
 

TREFF

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Hell Treff I don't know why you're trying to convince the rest of us, either you or Harold already own him in every damn league so all the rest of us hope he sucks. :) In fact since I don't own Harris either I hope they split the early down work right down the middle and James White plays every damn 3rd down.
I ain't trying to convince anyone of anything about any individual player..it's this portrayal of Belichicks RB's as always being a crapshoot...it isn't, and rarely has been, he usually rides one, and it's pretty right in your face in the numbers, you just have to look, rather than have those few outlying years were it was a shitsohw define your thinking.
Now guessing which one, when he has multiple truly viable lead back options, yeah, crapshoot (as it would be with virtually every coach), but this is the first time that's been the case in a dacade
 

wilwhite

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A little window into why I can't figure out BB.

He gave Ridley 18 carries a game in 2012 and then they added Blount and it dropped to 13 in 2013, then back to 16 for his 6 games in 2014 without Blount (and then Ridley got hurt).

That makes it seem like a single stud gets the carries, but a second stud dilutes the first stud.

But when Blount came back, without Ridley, Blount didn't get 15 carries a game the rest of that year, he didn't get 15 carries in 2015, and then he got 19 carries a game in 2016 with the same personnel as 2015. And then in 2017 Blount was gone and they decided Dion Lewis was a three-down back.

It's a mystery, man.
 

molsaniceman

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A little window into why I can't figure out BB.

He gave Ridley 18 carries a game in 2012 and then they added Blount and it dropped to 13 in 2013, then back to 16 for his 6 games in 2014 without Blount (and then Ridley got hurt).

That makes it seem like a single stud gets the carries, but a second stud dilutes the first stud.

But when Blount came back, without Ridley, Blount didn't get 15 carries a game the rest of that year, he didn't get 15 carries in 2015, and then he got 19 carries a game in 2016 with the same personnel as 2015. And then in 2017 Blount was gone and they decided Dion Lewis was a three-down back.

It's a mystery, man.
is 16 carries the norm now for a lead back? problem fantasy wise with BB is he plays the hot hand and u dont know who that will be most times and it a great way to keep other teams in the dark
theres been 5 1000 yd rushers in 20 years and no repeats
 

TREFF

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I'm done...it's as obvious as the nose on my face..to me..obviously not to others. I'll gladly benefit from being the one that can see it I guess :)
 
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