Dunlap to Kramer-Suck it

[vancelot23]

Pass Rushing Productivity: The Story So Far | ProFootballFocus.com

Dunlap is the most productive pass rusher in the NFL by this standard due to his hurries and hits. This is figured by adding total sacks to the number of hits+hurries weighted at .75 of a sack. The formula

sacks + .75(hurries+QB hits)/number of snaps rushing the passer.

 

[flamingrey]

I'm sorry, but what a horrible formula.

So up to 75 pass rushes, a hit or hurry is the equivalent of a sack? Too simplistic. They need to devise another formula in there to measure "pass rushing productivity" up to at LEAST 150 pass rushes. And then after 150, this formula is used. At least in that case, the bare minimum a hit/hurry is worth is half a sack which is probably still too high.

Unless they have a disclaimer that the stat is useless prior to 150 or so pass rushes.

 

[vancelot23]

What a shock. Flaming has an issue. I'd say a hurry or a hit is almost as good as a sack. It forces bad throws, turnovers, incompletions and obviously hits affect the QB.

 

[vancelot23]

It figures a hit or a hurry as 75% of a sack. So if a player has 1 hit and 1 sack, the sack would be 1 unit, the hit at .75 units. A sack has more value.

 

[flamingrey]

1) You're reading the formula incorrectly. The "sacks" are out of the equation, so it's always equal to 1.

2) Even with a hit/hurry, a player could complete any kind of pass and possibly for a 1st a down, or even win the game on a hit/hurry as Dalton did on that pass to Green. A sack is a guaranteed loss of down and loss of yardage. It's nowhere near as good as a sack.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm fairly sure you can't get any stats if you don't play. It would be nice if he could suit up once against Pittsburgh this year.

 

[vancelot23]

I'm fairly sure you can't get any stats if you don't play. It would be nice if he could suit up once against Pittsburgh this year.

This is true.

 

[vancelot23]

1) You're reading the formula incorrectly. The "sacks" are out of the equation, so it's always equal to 1.

2) Even with a hit/hurry, a player could complete any kind of pass and possibly for a 1st a down, or even win the game on a hit/hurry as Dalton did on that pass to Green. A sack is a guaranteed loss of down and loss of yardage. It's nowhere near as good as a sack.

The stat is just to prove who is efficient at getting to the QB. It does that nicely.

 

[flamingrey]

The stat is there as a way to measure who the best pass rusher(s) is (are). It is flawed.

Little different than QB Rating which is why they came out with QBR.

In addition to what I said above, how can 1 sack in 100 attempts be the equivalent to 1 sack in 200 attempts?

 

[vancelot23]

What the fuck are you talking about? A sack is a sack. Since the number is divided by the number of attempts, it would be different. IE If Dunlap had 1 sack in 100 attempts that would 1/100 If he had 1 pressure in 200 attempts, it would be 1/200.

 

[flamingrey]

I've done a couple calcs and that seems to be the case (though the numbers don't add up either way), in which case the formula should be written:

[sacks + .75(hurries+QB hits)]/number of snaps rushing the passer * 100

Either way, it's flawed. No way you designate a hit or hurry as 3/4 of a sack. Probably not even 50%.

 

[vancelot23]

You could argue 50% I think. I'm OK with it the way it is just as a guideline. Mostly I just wanted to rub it in Kramer's face.

 

[flamingrey]

Dunlap's stats: 3 sacks, 11 hits, 24 hurries, 202 rushes

[3 + 0.75(11+24)]/202 * 100 = 14.48

3 + 0.75(11+24)]/202 * 100 = 15.99

However, his numbers show 15.47.

What am I missing?

 

[vancelot23]

Not sure. LOL. I hadn't actually tried to solve it.

 

[dare2be]

Not sure. LOL. I hadn't actually tried to solve it.

You need to factor both sides and then divide by zero. Oh, and don't forget to carry the one.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I'm sorry, but what a horrible formula.

So up to 75 pass rushes, a hit or hurry is the equivalent of a sack? Too simplistic. They need to devise another formula in there to measure "pass rushing productivity" up to at LEAST 150 pass rushes. And then after 150, this formula is used. At least in that case, the bare minimum a hit/hurry is worth is half a sack which is probably still too high.

Unless they have a disclaimer that the stat is useless prior to 150 or so pass rushes.

LOL. You obviously do not know wtf you are talking about. I made zero sense of your structured plan. Their system, while maybe flawed, is 100% better than yours.

 

[kramer1]

You could argue 50% I think. I'm OK with it the way it is just as a guideline. Mostly I just wanted to rub it in Kramer's face.

This was posted and discussed in another thread earlier in the day, though. You lose.

 

[flamingrey]

LOL. You obviously do not know wtf you are talking about. I made zero sense of your structured plan. Their system, while maybe flawed, is 100% better than yours.

This doesn't surprise me. You don't have have the intelligence to keep up. You've proven this time and time again.

 

[BigBlueNation111]

Dunlap's stats: 3 sacks, 11 hits, 24 hurries, 202 rushes

[3 + 0.75(11+24)]/202 * 100 = 14.48

3 + 0.75(11+24)]/202 * 100 = 15.99

However, his numbers show 15.47.

What am I missing?

wow!!...you guys really take it to another level don't ya? Too each his own.Take care all and have a good day!

 

[dare2be]

Let's break down a hit/hurry's value compared to a sack. A sack is always a zero-to-negative yardage play, and eats up clock time. Not factoring in turnovers, a hurry/hit at best is a no-gain play, and a percentage of those plays will come as positive yard completions; the remainder of those plays would be incompletions that stop the clock. I assume that a hurry/hit diminishes the QB's comp% for those plays, but I'm sure that current stats databases could calculate the precise comp% and YPA for all hurry-hit plays. I would also factor in the fumbles forced on sacks and interceptions thrown on hurry/hit plays. The formula could be derived using all these factors.

I would guestimate that a hurry/hit is more like 1/3 to 1/4 the value of a sack.

(Yeah, I'm a numbers geek)