Carnzo
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Thanks KenBoston Herald Saturday January 12, 2018
How will this game shake out? Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Quarterback
Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers
Brady has played in the most postseason games in NFL history, with Sunday’s contest against the Chargers set to go down as his 38th playoff entry. Last season, at age 40, he produced a season worthy of NFL MVP honors while guiding the team to the Super Bowl. This year, with less talent around him, he hasn’t been nearly as good statistically. But with five Super Bowls tucked away, and the ability to dial it up in the playoffs, it’s never a good idea to bet against No. 12.
As for Rivers, he’s the most accomplished active quarterback without a title. His legend certainly grew in New England in January of 2008 when he took on an unbeaten Pats team in the AFC Championship, reportedly playing with a torn ACL and nearly pulling out a victory.
In 13 years, with four different head coaches, he has led 30 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. But he’s also been prone to making mistakes, throwing killer picks.
In seven starts against Brady, Rivers is 0-7 (including 0-2 in the playoffs). While their passing numbers are similar this season in terms of yards, touchdowns and interceptions, the edge goes to the guy with the rings.
Edge: Patriots
Running backs
Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead vs. Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson
The Pats running attack ran a bit hot and cold this year. When they ran well, they were dominant. At other points, they struggled. They operated best with Michel and White as the one-two punch with fullback James Develin setting the tone physically. Rookie Michel had four 100-yard games. White, with 87 receptions, set a team record for backs. Burkhead came off injured reserve late in the year. He’s one more weapon running and catching the football.
As for the Chargers, they sport the third best rushing offense in the league. Gordon is a threat between the tackles and in the short passing game. The Pro Bowler averaged 114.6 yards from scrimmage. He’s a bit dinged up however, with right and left knee injuries. Ekeler is a multi-purpose back who does a little bit of everything. If Gordon didn’t have knee problems, the check with go to the Chargers. He’s not healthy.
Edge: Patriots
Offensive line
Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon vs. Russell Okung, Dan Feeney, Mike Pouncey, Michael Schofield III, Sam Tevi
The Pats O-line did a much better job protecting Brady this season as opposed to last, cutting sack totals down from 35 to 21. The unit was also a force run-blocking when the occasion called for it. There were some issues later in the year with penalties. But on the whole, the line proved a strength.
The Chargers line, which features Pro Bowl center Pouncey, didn’t do as good a job protecting Rivers this year, compared with last year, where he only went down 18 times. This year, the number rose to 32. The Bolts, however, had one of the best running games in the league during the year thanks to the men up front.
Edge: Even
Wide receivers
Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams
The Patriots had Josh Gordon for 11 games, and he provided a boost to the receiving corps, but they no longer have his talents. So Brady relies on Edelman, who continues to deliver with timely catches. Patterson chips in with an occasional big play. Hogan and Dorsett found their way back into the offense the final game.
The Chargers are loaded at receiver starting with Pro Bowler Allen (97 receptions for 1,196 yards and 6 TDs) and Mike Williams, who averaged 15.4 yards a catch during the regular season with a team-best 10 touchdown catches. Tyrell Williams (41 catches) and Travis Benjamin (15.5 yards a catch) are icing on the cake.
Edge: Chargers
Tight ends
Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen vs. Virgil Green, Antonio Gates
Due to back and ankle injuries, Gronkowski hasn’t been the force most people have been accustomed to seeing over the years. He’s not been a player teams fear. Still, opposing teams would be wise not to completely ignore him. He can still do damage both as a pass catcher and blocker. Allen’s only purpose has been as a blocker.
The Chargers have Gates, whose best days are behind him but the future Hall of Famer still makes plays for Rivers. He had 28 catches for 333 yards with 2 TDs during the regular season. Green is a decent blocker in the running game. He had 19 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown. Add them together, and they combine for roughly the production of Gronk (47 catches, 682 yards, 3 TDs).
Hunter Henry, who hasn’t played since suffering a torn ACL in May, was activated Monday and could be eligible for Sunday’s game. He’s one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the game, but a complete unknown coming off that surgery so soon if he plays.
Edge: Patriots
Defensive backs
Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon vs. Michael Davis, Casey Hayward Jr., Adrian Phillips, Desmond King, Derwin James
The Patriots secondary emerged as the strength of the defense led by All-Pro corner Gilmore. Rookie Jackson took over the starting job opposite Gilmore Week 13. Jason McCourty and Jonathan Jones also see a lot of time as the third corner or slot corner and have been effective. The safety group brings a lot of veteran playoff experience to the table.
For the Bolts, Hayward is a two-time Pro Bowler at cornerback. Rookie safety James has emerged as a big-time playmaker, while King is a tough defender as a slot corner.
Edge: Chargers
Linebackers
Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts vs. Kyle Emanuel, Hayes Pullard, Uchenna Nwosu
Hightower managed to get through the season relatively healthy and stay off IR which was a bonus. Van Noy enjoyed his best year and Roberts showed improvement. This group isn’t the speediest and has proven vulnerable in coverage against backs.
The Chargers unit does boast some speed, but is the worst in the league in terms of covering backs. Nwosu made the big play at the end of the Ravens game to secure that victory, coming off the edge to strip Lamar Jackson of the ball in the closing minute.
Edge: Even
Defensive line
Trey Flowers, Lawrence Guy, Malcom Brown, Deatrich Wise vs. Joey Bosa, Darius Philon, Brandon Mebane, Melvin Ingram III
The Patriots haven’t been able to stop the run effectively most of the season. They’ve been gashed down the middle. They’ll need to plug the holes going forward. Among the group, Flowers (7.5 sacks) has had the best year.
The Chargers have a terrific front with Bosa (5.5 sacks) and Ingram (7 sacks) flying in from the edges to lead their pass rush. They were without Mebane, one of their best run defenders, against the Ravens. His daughter Makenna, who was born prematurely, passed away last week. He told Chargers reporters he would be ready to play against the Patriots.
Edge: Chargers
Special teams
Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Julian Edelman vs. Mike Badgley, Nick Rose, Donnie Jones, Desmond King
If you’re talking punt or kick coverage, the Patriots special teams units haven’t had the best season. It’s been better of late, but the Pats have still been prone to long returns. Gostkowski has missed a few makeable kicks, but on the whole, has been pretty solid. Allen once again has been terrific as a situational kicker. Patterson earned second team All-Pro for his kick return prowess.
For the Chargers, rookie Badgley has solidified an area that has caused much grief every year. He kicked five field goals against the Ravens. The Bolts, however, had a kick and punt blocked by the Ravens. So that’s something to watch. They just added Rose for kickoffs because he has a stronger leg for touchbacks to avoid Patterson. In the cold, and swirling wind in Foxboro, it might not matter. King is an All-Pro special teams player. He had big punt and kick returns against the Ravens.
Edge: Even
Coach
Bill Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn
It’s hard for the Patriots to lose this matchup no matter who’s standing on the other sideline. Belichick is the only head coach in NFL history with five Super Bowl titles. He has the most wins among all active coaches and is third all-time with 289 victories as a head coach. Only Don Shula (347) and George Halas (324) have won more. He’s basically seen and done it all. Few if any of the current coaches hold a candle to him.
Anthony Lynn is in his second season with the Bolts. He started out 0-4 his first year. Since that point, has gone 22-7 counting Sunday’s AFC wild card win over the Ravens. After so many underachieving seasons, he has the Chargers back in the playoffs, and a legitimate contender. As a player, Lynn, a running back, was part of Denver’s back-to-back Super Bowl champion teams (1997-1998).
Edge: Patriots
