Curious as to why some think Kaepernick isn't doing well

[Bemular]

I was wrong again. I thought this post was good enough and would end this thread, but alas, it didn't. I wondered why you didn't say this from the beginning, rather than asking him if he was sticking to his stats says all theory. I do agree that we don't know everything about Kaep right now, but even as a Smith fan, I think we've seen enough at least to not question the guy who has seen more (Harbaugh). If Kaep were struggling, I'd trust Harbaugh, but I'd slightly question it.

I think we could win with either Smith or Kaep - I just think it's easier or better chance with Kaep. I wanted Smith to start and win it, but the win was more important, so I defer to Harbaugh,.

He's become a toy at this stage for me - I have him chasing sticks like the troll that he is...but on to your post...

Yeah, I acknowledge the risk just as we all do but there are no questions about Kaps skills & ability being superior to Smith's. So now the questions are, can he execute and can he lead? And, thus far, the answers are yes & yes.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

He's become a toy at this stage for me

My goodness.......where does one get an ego like this? Of all the opinions and insults going back and forth, nobody else in this thread is even half as dumb as you, regularly misusing words and failing to understand basic statistical concepts.......but you sure do claim victory as often as possible.

 

[MHSL82]

Yeah, I acknowledge the risk just as we all do but there are no questions about Kaps skills & ability being superior to Smith's. So now the questions are, can he execute and can he lead? And, thus far, the answers are yes & yes.

When Smith got the concussion, I saw his benching as a possibility and at that point, I had the same things rmilia is questioning - experience, etc. Potential wasn't worth much compared to reality. After the Bears game, I was reserved to make real comments, because of defenses adjusting, and the idea that Kaep had nothing to lose (so of course he'd take shots). Plus, I didn't know Harbaugh's thoughts.

But after these four games in their entirety, plus Harbaugh's faith in Kaep, plus knowing we do have Smith there if Kaep gets injured, I have since rested my concerns over the switch. Plus, he has three more games to make the switch look even better (yes, potential also to make it look worse.) The more he plays, the less experience plays a role, if at all. If we cut Smith two week ago, I'd have been more upset, but the fact that he is there, capable, and professional enough to help Kaep and be ready if it went back to him, it eased my concerns. I do have concerns over us winning it all, but that was and would be with Smith as QB, too.

 

[Bemular]

My goodness.......where does one get an ego like this? Of all the opinions and insults going back and forth, nobody else in this thread is even half as dumb as you, regularly misusing words and failing to understand basic statistical concepts.......but you sure do claim victory as often as possible.

Well, I'm always up for learning. Show me some of those misued words because those are so very huge and important!

But what I'm really excited to learn from you is "understanding basic statistical concepts".

Take it away - genius

 

[Crimsoncrew]

This is what you call "tortured logic". You are comparing a 16 - 13 game where the Rams got into the Niners' red zone one time, vs. a 36 - 32 game where the Saints had 432 yards and *no* problem scoring.

24-42 for 299, 3 TDs and 0 INTs is as bad as anything outside of a 5-INT Cutler meltdown? What an absolutely ludicrous comment.

How is it that no one is capable of accurately remembering this game? NO had no trouble scoring? Funny, out of 15 NO drives in the game (not counting the two fumbled punts which deprived them of drives), they scored on only five of them. They scored 14 points in the first three quarters of play, and 17 in the first 55 minutes of play. For a historically good offense, I'd say that's actually quite *a lot* of problems scoring. Meanwhile, in that same span, they turned the ball over five times. Miraculously, despite the constant turnovers, the Saints won the TOP battle by three minutes. The D was incredible for most of the game, and only buckled on two big plays - with big-time YAC - at the very end.

The only reason that game came down to the wire was because, after taking a 17-0 lead, the Niners had nine straight drives none of which netted more than 31 yards, and which combined for 89 yards - only five more yards than we managed on the final drive. For those keeping score at home, we averaged a whopping 2.97 yards per play on those drives. That's despite throwing about twice as often as we ran. I went into GREAT detail on this a couple weeks ago. Can't take the time to do it again now (tracked it down though: http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...rted-kaep-beginning-season-4.html#post2568183). Suffice it to say that Smith was given a chance to put the game away, and instead our offense defined incompetence for approximately 40 minutes. That would have been the story of the game without the last four minutes.

Finally, I said Smith's performance "etween the Crabtree TD and the final two drives" was awful, not his performance for the game. In that span, he went 10 of 26 for 58 yards and a lost fumble. He didn't turn the ball over a ton, but the five drives in which we gained fewer than 20 yards before punting aren't much better than INTs.

 

[Bemular]

When Smith got the concussion, I saw his benching as a possibility and at that point, I had the same things rmilia is questioning - experience, etc. Potential wasn't worth much compared to reality. After the Bears game, I was reserved to make real comments, because of defenses adjusting, and the idea that Kaep had nothing to lose (so of course he'd take shots). Plus, I didn't know Harbaugh's thoughts.

But after these four games in their entirety, plus Harbaugh's faith in Kaep, plus knowing we do have Smith there if Kaep gets injured, I have since rested my concerns over the switch. Plus, he has three more games to make the switch look even better (yes, potential also to make it look worse.) The more he plays, the less experience plays a role, if at all. If we cut Smith two week ago, I'd have been more upset, but the fact that he is there, capable, and professional enough to help Kaep and be ready if it went back to him, it eased my concerns. I do have concerns over us winning it all, but that was and would be with Smith as QB, too.

One way to think about it is, Smith and Kap have had the same amount of time in Harbaugh's system - which includes classroom study as well as practice field. Smith of course received the bulk of the practice snaps but Colin was still a part of the learning process.

Smith had 16 starts in Harbaughs system before his 1st playoff game; Kap will have ~8. So, there is a difference but is it huge? I think this week will teach us a little more about how much that difference means in terms of ability to lead our team - because this week we will need to put up some points and not just FG's.

This is another huge test for Kap and all eyes will be watching.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I guess thats the crux of the disagreement here Crimson. I disagree 100% that the move is only the wrong call if Kaep is worse. Its also the wrong call if he doesnt make you substantially better. Gaining very little in some areas while losing very little in others doesnt do you any good on the field and the experience you lose, especially come big game time ( ie this week and next), can be potentially REALLY bad. Could be the difference between winning and losing a game. I mean if the Niners are down by 4 in the playoffs vs the Giants and they get the ball back with a chance to go win the game who do you REALLY REALLY think the players themselves would have more faith in?? A guy that has already won a game like that and has played for 7 years or a guy with 7 career starts that has never in his life faced that kind of pressure??

If Kap rips off a few more 50-yard runs in the 4th, I think they'll be completely comfortable going into those situations with him.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Jesus man I have explained every single thing I have posted ad nauseum. I in no way said that Peyton or CK have "no intangibles". I am saying intangibles are a weak ass argument and a crutch used by people to avoid using actual data. You are selling Kaep short if you speak of him that way. The kid is talented and will probably eventualy be a better QB than Alex, right now he isnt and I thought that was the point of our discussion.

But you just said Smith and Kaepernick are basically the same, but Smith has more experience! That's an intangible!

 

[Bemular]

How is it that no one is capable of accurately remembering this game? NO had no trouble scoring? Funny, out of 15 NO drives in the game (not counting the two fumbled punts which deprived them of drives), they scored on only five of them. They scored 14 points in the first three quarters of play, and 17 in the first 55 minutes of play. For a historically good offense, I'd say that's actually quite *a lot* of problems scoring. Meanwhile, in that same span, they turned the ball over five times. Miraculously, despite the constant turnovers, the Saints won the TOP battle by three minutes. The D was incredible for most of the game, and only buckled on two big plays - with big-time YAC - at the very end.

The only reason that game came down to the wire was because, after taking a 17-0 lead, the Niners had nine straight drives none of which netted more than 31 yards, and which combined for 89 yards - only five more yards than we managed on the final drive. For those keeping score at home, we averaged a whopping 2.97 yards per play on those drives. That's despite throwing about twice as often as we ran. I went into GREAT detail on this a couple weeks ago. Can't take the time to do it again now (tracked it down though: http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...rted-kaep-beginning-season-4.html#post2568183). Suffice it to say that Smith was given a chance to put the game away, and instead our offense defined incompetence for approximately 40 minutes. That would have been the story of the game without the last four minutes.

Finally, I said Smith's performance "etween the Crabtree TD and the final two drives" was awful, not his performance for the game. In that span, he went 10 of 26 for 58 yards and a lost fumble. He didn't turn the ball over a ton, but the five drives in which we gained fewer than 20 yards before punting aren't much better than INTs.

Wow!! If it hadn't been for those last ~4 minutes we would have seen Kap as our starter - day one! That's just horrific! It is amazing how concealed that performance is behind those last two drives.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Good post Crimson. I guess it just depends on how you look at it. I dont think anyone is in disagreement about Kaeps potential being WAYYYY superior to Alexs. I simply find it strange to make the move mid year on a team that can get to a Super Bowl without making it. You and B and others must have a higher risk tolerance than me because if my team did that Id be scared shitless of the potential for costing my team a title just to build for the future.

I'm actually quite risk averse, I just don't have very much faith in Alex taking us to and winning the super bowl. Last year everything came together. I'm not sure it will this year. I don't think Alex can beat both NE and Seattle on the road, and I don't think he can put together the three or four games it will take to get to and win the SB. Again, I say that as someone who argued AT LENGTH with Clyde during the 2011 offseason that Smith likely hadn't scratched the surface of what he can do. Smith is simply limited in ways that he's not going to correct at this point in his career. And given that, I'd rather take a shot with a guy who doesn't have those limitations.

 

[rmilia1]

My goodness.......where does one get an ego like this? Of all the opinions and insults going back and forth, nobody else in this thread is even half as dumb as you, regularly misusing words and failing to understand basic statistical concepts.......but you sure do claim victory as often as possible.

LOL, well like I said it takes someone really stubborn to claim victory despite offering no real insight.

 

[rmilia1]

But you just said Smith and Kaepernick are basically the same, but Smith has more experience! That's an intangible!

The most important one I dont know if Kaep and Smith are the same. Their numbers say so at this point but even in that situation Ill take experience over promise.

 

[TobyTyler]

I'm actually quite risk averse, I just don't have very much faith in Alex taking us to and winning the super bowl. Last year everything came together. I'm not sure it will this year. I don't think Alex can beat both NE and Seattle on the road, and I don't think he can put together the three or four games it will take to get to and win the SB. Again, I say that as someone who argued AT LENGTH with Clyde during the 2011 offseason that Smith likely hadn't scratched the surface of what he can do. Smith is simply limited in ways that he's not going to correct at this point in his career. And given that, I'd rather take a shot with a guy who doesn't have those limitations.

Neither quarterback can if they don't find a decent receiver to play alongside Crabtree while Manningham is out or they can't find a way to get the ball to Vernon Davis.

 

[MHSL82]

Wow!! If it hadn't been for those last ~4 minutes we would have seen Kap as our starter - day one! That's just horrific! It is amazing how concealed that performance is behind those last two drives.

You're right, those two drives do conceal the rest of the game, but to be fair, taking out the last two drives wouldn't have lead to 10/26. CC is taking out the beginning of the game, too - which had two TDs in it. Outside of that 10/26 stretch that Crimsoncrew took out, he was 14/16 for 241 yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 0 INTs. The two incompletes were a spike and the Hastings throw. How much of that was prior to the last two drives + the 10-26 part, is where we'd be. This would likely be a 18/34 for 160 yards. Bad, but better than the 10/26 he cited. If we had the KW fumbles then, Smith would likely have been gone to Miami (his FA trip would have been earlier, he would have also gone to Seattle, probably empty handed, maybe Arizona after Manning - the Niners might have shown even more inclination to go to Kaep or pursued Manning more publicly?).

But, I think those two drives contributed to what Smith is capable of, just as the NFCC limited it. So, I won't spend too much time removing it, just seeing that he had a great stretch of four minutes and will look at everything, good and bad, outside of that stretch.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Finally, I said Smith's performance "etween the Crabtree TD and the final two drives" was awful, not his performance for the game. In that span, he went 10 of 26 for 58 yards and a lost fumble. He didn't turn the ball over a ton, but the five drives in which we gained fewer than 20 yards before punting aren't much better than INTs.

This is just an awfully strange way of looking at it. He was 24 - 42 for 299 and 3/0. Some parts of the game were better than others, but as a whole it was good. You seem intent to carve out the bad part of the game and act like it was his fault they were behind. Leave out three scoring drives and yeah, he had a bad game. That is also a non-point and an incredibly obtuse argument.

I am not trying to say this was a great game or anything, but comparing it to Cutler's debacle or Kapernick's rough game in STL is again, ridiculous....I can't describe it any better than that.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

He's talking about removing parts of the game and thus the 299 yards is not in that part of the game. I don't have the numbers, but when you run two 80 yard drives and most of them are passing yards, I assume, outside of those four minutes, that he had somewhere from 160-28 (his run) in those two drives. Therefore, he had around 160 yards. He was somewhere around 6-9 in the last two drives (one spike, the Hastings throw, and maybe one more), so that would take us to 18/33 for 160 yards (and two TDs early). Someone, maybe Crimson, did the actual stats once, so that would be more accurate. If you compare that to the 5 INT Cutler meltdown, Smith's game beats it, but it's still poor. If the game ended with KWs punt fumble after those numbers, despite it being KW's fault, we'd see Smith didn't come through.

Imagine if the Williams fumble had happened prior to either of those drives in the Saints game? We'd have been saying Smith wasn't capable of that. Imagine if the KW fumbles didn't happen in the Giants game? If he either did the Saints game thing in OT, we'd be saying he was more clutch, or if in regulation the fumbles didn't happen, we'd just say how the defense carried him again.

I don't remove those numbers because to me, that's what showed me more from Smith. The fact that he was able to answer twice, spoke more to me than all of 2011. Doesn't mean he's great nor better than Kaep, but that told me that he was capable of that. I'm a big Smith fan and I was worrying that something like the end of the Philadelphia game in 2010 was going to happen (hit while thrown, INT).

Thus, I don't think one can remove part of the game and make a real opinion on a QB, but when comparing two situations, removing part of the game is appropriate sometimes.

Smith was huge at the end of those games. He really showed something about his character and his will, as well as his ability to make plays on the football field. But this game is CONSTANTLY cited by people who think he should be the starter, and IMO that game doesn't bear all that much more than the many games in which he has struggled. Alex is a hard worker, he's become pretty darn clutch, and I really like a lot about him. But without better pocket presence, decisiveness, and downfield/edge accuracy, he's never going to do much more than he has to date.

 

[Bemular]

But you just said Smith and Kaepernick are basically the same, but Smith has more experience! That's an intangible!

He actually stated that both leadership and experience are the 2 most important intangibles - but he then goes on to say that we lost out "big" on both of those with the move to Kap.

So he is using a one game observation of Kap to qualify his assertion that we lost out "big" on both. Thus far I'm not seeing any loss of leadership and only a minimal loss on the experience side of the equation.

 

[TobyTyler]

You're right, those two drives do conceal the rest of the game, but to be fair, taking out the last two drives wouldn't have lead to 10/26. CC is taking out the beginning of the game, too - which had two TDs in it. Outside of that 10/26 stretch that Crimsoncrew took out, he was 14/16 for 241 yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 0 INTs. The two incompletes were a spike and the Hastings throw. How much of that was prior to the last two drives + the 10-26 part, is where we'd be. This would likely be a 18/34 for 160 yards. Bad, but better than the 10/26 he cited. If we had the KW fumbles then, Smith would likely have been gone to Miami (his FA trip would have been earlier).

But, I think those two drives contributed to what Smith is capable of, just as the NFCC limited it. So, I won't spend too much time removing it, just seeing that he had a great stretch of four minutes and will look at everything, good and bad, outside of that stretch.

And don't forget, Harbaugh went into a shell after the 17 point lead. He only took the reins off Smith once the Saints caught up.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Yeah, you can make a lot of QBs look bad if you remove the 3 or 4 best drives of a game. Doesn't make much of a point though, not sure what he was even attempting there. And even past that, he compared it to a 5 INT Cutler game which was one of the worst I've seen played. Nonsense top to bottom.......unless you are trying to prove someone is a "streaky" player, pointing to isolated parts of a game doesn't constitute much of an argument.

There is some truth to that, but very few QBs are as ineffective for as sustained a period as Smith was in that game. All we needed was to sustain some drives, maybe get a couple FGs. We couldn't do it. We fell flat on our faces and let NO back in the game. Again, the end was great. We shouldn't have needed it.

And I explicitly said it was not as bad as a Cutler meltdown. It was as bad as a QB can play without turning it over a ton. That's the point I was making by bringing up Cutler. Smith didn't do anything to directly cost us the game, but like in the NYG game teh following week, he didn't do what he needed to earlier to put us in a strong position to win.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Neither quarterback can if they don't find a decent receiver to play alongside Crabtree while Manningham is out or they can't find a way to get the ball to Vernon Davis.

That is a concern. We're currently missing our #2 and #4 receivers. Moss is really just a role player at this point. We'll see what happens. Delanie has come on lately, as has Miller as an outlet. We have enough weapons even with the injuries.