Curious as to why some think Kaepernick isn't doing well

[MHSL82]

Yeah people are pretending like Kaep has that bad pitch 5 times a game. That's why I'm confused. And yeah, that was a bit of an exaggeration on average but we can't deny most of Kaep's 10-15yd passes would've been 4-5yd passes from Alex unless the WR get's more. But without random passes in the Wildkaep earlier this season he'd be about 10-11 per throw as opposed to Alex's 7. I just don't get how people don't see Alex is gun shy. He obviously doesn't like throwing past a certain distance whereas Kaep has no problem.

Edit: when I say deeper passes, I don't mean bombs. I mean 10-15yarders as opposed to 3-8yarders. I'm not talking about deep shots.

Pozz posted the following, thought this was relevant to the post quoted. I don't know what Smith's averages are. Again, this is a product of the playcalling, not Kaep's ability or propensity to throw short passes. He certainly has more deeper passes than Smith, it just averages less than 10-15.

Average Throw Distance This Season - Colin Kaepernick

Week - Throw Distance - Weekly Rank

Week 14 - 7.3 - 28th
Week 13 - 5.8 - 30th
Week 12 - 7.4 - 22nd
Week 11 - 10.2 - 6th

 

[TobyTyler]

Haha! - I did see it. He did a great job of turning the defender; but, he had a fist full of jersey toward the end of the block. Now, that said, so to did the defender have a fist full of Crabtree's jersey.

Ha, if it wasn't called it never happened.

 

[Bemular]

Pozz posted the following, thought this was relevant to the post quoted. I don't know what Smith's averages are. Again, this is a product of the playcalling, not Kaep's ability or propensity to throw short passes. He certainly has more deeper passes than Smith, it just averages less than 10-15.

Average Throw Distance This Season - Colin Kaepernick

Week - Throw Distance - Weekly Rank

Week 14 - 7.3 - 28th
Week 13 - 5.8 - 30th
Week 12 - 7.4 - 22nd
Week 11 - 10.2 - 6th

Here are Smith's Pass Distances

217 Pass Attempts

Week 1 - 6.7
Week 2 - 6.1
Week 3 - 6.2
Week 4 - 11.6
Week 5 - 9.9
Week 6 - 8.8
Week 7 - 8.3
Week 8 - 4.9
Week 9 - 4.0

Overall - 7.6

Don't know where these rank league-wise but here you are for QB comparison

 

[Bemular]

Ha, if it wasn't called it never happened.

LOL!!! True!!!

 

[MHSL82]

Here are Smith's Pass Distances

217 Pass Attempts

Week 1 - 6.7
Week 2 - 6.1
Week 3 - 6.2
Week 4 - 11.6
Week 5 - 9.9
Week 6 - 8.8
Week 7 - 8.3
Week 8 - 4.9
Week 9 - 4.0

Overall - 7.6

Don't know where these rank league-wise but here you are for QB comparison

Thanks, Bem!

 

[Bemular]

Thanks, Bem!

Anytime

 

[MHSL82]

Around the NFC West: 49ers-Pats matchup - NFC West Blog - ESPN

"Since becoming the 49ers' starter in Week 11, Kaepernick has completed 22 of 31 passes for 324 yards with one touchdown and one interception (102.1 NFL passer rating) when targeting wide receivers outside the yard-line numbers, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He has completed 10 of 12 passes for 118 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions (107.6 rating) when targeting running backs and tight ends inside the numbers.

Those numbers appear quite strong, but they aren't all trending in a positive direction.

Kaepernick's rating drops to 82.9 when targeting wide receivers outside the numbers over the past three weeks. That period excludes Kaepernick's breakout performance against the Chicago Bears in Week 11. In that game, Kaepernick completed 5 of 6 attempts for 79 yards, one touchdown and a maximum 158.3 rating when targeting wide receivers outside the numbers. He has subsequently completed 17 of 25 attempts, 245 yards, with an interception on those throws.

Opponents seem to be forcing Kaepernick into shorter throws recently. His passes traveled 10.2 yards past the line of scrimmage on average against Chicago. They have traveled 6.7 yards past the line of scrimmage on average over the next three games. The average was 7.5 yards for Alex Smith this season."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know I keep harping on Harbaugh and Roman, but it seems the conservative play is hurting Kaep - though we don't really know if Kaep is being saved from some rookie INTs. It's hard to prove something that hasn't happened. I think Kaep picks it up and either way, it may be better than Smith anyway. But I will compare Kaep to Kaep and if this trend continues (depending on how much), compared to Kaep, I'll be a bit concerned. But he started so well that it was bound to come down, so I'm not going to judged solely on the Bears game. See if the next three are worse than the last three, etc. - despite my concerns with Harbaugh's plays - he might call them for reasons beyond what we can deduct - but the bigger sample we get, the better conclusions we can get. Again, comparing Kaep to Kaep, not concerned with Smith right now. (Struggles here would not call for Smith to start, but would make me concerned about us needing to help Kaep a bit somehow.)

 

[Bemular]

ESPN had 7.5
I have 7.57

 

[MHSL82]

ESPN had 7.5
I have 7.57

Now, where's the technical stat method to justify ESPN's inaccuracy?

Edit: There is a scientific thing called Significant Figures, but this but wouldn't be applied here, as this isn't that uncertain of measurement and wouldn't produce the 7.5.

 

[Bemular]

Now, where's the technical stat method to justify ESPN's inaccuracy?

Haha...I avoid ESPN stats whenever possible; they are sooo error prone

 

[MHSL82]

Ran out of time to edit - should say this instead:

"Now, where's the technical stat method to justify ESPN's inaccuracy?

Edit: There is a scientific thing called Significant Figures, but this but wouldn't be applied here, as this isn't that uncertain of measurement and wouldn't produce the 7.5, unless they truncated it instead of rounding (middle of article in link).

 

[MHSL82]

Haha...I avoid ESPN stats whenever possible; they are sooo error prone

Yep, ignore the edited post and the one after, it's not worth it.

 

[Bemular]

Now, where's the technical stat method to justify ESPN's inaccuracy?

Edit: There is a scientific thing called Significant Figures, but this could arbitrarily but wouldn't be applied here, as this isn't that uncertain of measurement and wouldn't produce the 7.5.

Actually - This particular measurement does have a fair degree of subjectivity as you are ignoring all measurements less than a yard and there are many times when a pass travels 4.5 yards.

However, over the course of the season, if you measure each pass precisely the same way, then the number tends to smooth out.

My scientific measurement for Smith's overall average is 7.571428571

 

[wartyOne]

Here are Smith's Pass Distances

217 Pass Attempts

Week 1 - 6.7
Week 2 - 6.1
Week 3 - 6.2
Week 4 - 11.6
Week 5 - 9.9
Week 6 - 8.8
Week 7 - 8.3
Week 8 - 4.9
Week 9 - 4.0

Overall - 7.6

Don't know where these rank league-wise but here you are for QB comparison

Not sure where these came from. In week 4, Smith was 12/21 for 143 yards which is 6.8 per (according to the game log on ESPN.com).

In Week 5, Smith was 18/24 for 303 yards which is 12.6 per.

Of course, those two games were against the cellar of the AFCE, so take from it what you will.

 

[Jikkle]

Listening to some of the NFL shows on TV the opinion of Bill Polian was that CK wasn't struggling and defenses are playing zone and not man because of CK's abilities which is leading to the numbers he has.

Charlie Casserly thought CK was a little slow and hesitant in his reads against Miami.

Overall though I would say CK is on schedule. What I see from him is just a guy that needs live game experience and the more he sees the more better he'll get.

Which is why I thought getting him experience against a team like Chicago on MNF, at New Orleans, at New England, and at Seattle is going to be huge for him come playoff time.

If you can perform reasonably well in those situations then you're on the right track.

 

[MHSL82]

Not sure where these came from. In week 4, Smith was 12/21 for 143 yards which is 6.8 per (according to the game log on ESPN.com).

In Week 5, Smith was 18/24 for 303 yards which is 12.6 per.

Of course, those two games were against the cellar of the AFCE, so take from it what you will.

We're talking about through the air - no YAC - and we're talking about incomplete passes, too. So if he threw two passes - one for 10 yards and it went for 20 (10 YAC) and another that was incomplete 20 yards down the field, the number would be 12.5 through the air, not 10 YPA.

The relevance of Pozz's numbers, Bemular's numbers, and ESPN's article is that the feeling is that Kaep throws deeper passes on average - but in reality - his highest average was the Bears game, which is still lower than Smith's Week 4 averages (no problem here because Bears are better at defense than the Jets and the completes were better). And since the Bears game, his attempts have been at or below some of Smith's averages for yards through the air (they've also been higher than Smith's lows). They're talking about the playcalling and design, not execution.

My belief is that the offense is very similarly called with Kaep as it was with Smith. Smith's completion percentage is a bit higher. Obviously, which passes he's completing and which passes Smith was completing is different. The coaches are being very conservative with Kaep when you consider Kaep's abilities. They are calling just as short of throws with Kaep. This is not due to skill level, but probably experience and coaching philosophy/tendencies.

 

[wartyOne]

We're talking about through the air - no YAC - and we're talking about incomplete passes, too. So if he threw two passes - one for 5 yards and it went for 20 (15 YAC) and another that was incomplete 20 yards down the field, the number would be 12.5 through the air, not 10 YPA.

Gotcha. Came in late to the convo.

 

[MHSL82]

Oops, I meant "15 through the air, not 10 YPA."

D'oh! I edited the post, figured out my mistake, went back to edit it again and it was 10 minutes. If I just had left it from the beginning, it would have been correct. Now, I can't go back and restore that.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Re: Kap's distances, I think the blitzing by the Rams played a pretty big part in affecting the average in that game, which was his lowest average by quite a distance. Seemed like they sent five more often than not.

 

[Bemular]

Re: Kap's distances, I think the blitzing by the Rams played a pretty big part in affecting the average in that game, which was his lowest average by quite a distance. Seemed like they sent five more often than not.

Huge! The Rams blitzed on 60% of Kaps dropbacks - that is insane!