Colin Kaepernick vs Alex Smith

[rmilia1]

Kap has led plenty of long sustaining drives already and in crucial times. Smith would be able to do that but he lacked a big throw on 3rd down to keep drives going when they were 3rd and longer then 5. Kap brings that bigger play ability to keep drives going.

We just need to get our ground game with frank going again like it was beginning of the yr.

Actually that is false. Smith was 37-93 on 3rd downs this year. Kaep is 33-105. Smith is a full 8% better on 3rds than CK. Ironically Kaep also had way more 3rd down attempts which means that the Niners arent making as many big plays on 1st and 2nd down under CK as they did under Smith.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

Actually that is false. Smith was 37-93 on 3rd downs this year. Kaep is 33-105. Smith is a full 8% better on 3rds than CK. Ironically Kaep also had way more 3rd down attempts which means that the Niners arent making as many big plays on 1st and 2nd down under CK as they did under Smith.

Damn someone has the stats right next to them lol

Well they are pretty close. But still I have seen the bigger plays from kap that we have been missing for some years

 

[rmilia1]

Damn someone has the stats right next to them lol

Well they are pretty close. But still I have seen the bigger plays from kap that we have been missing for some years

The bolded part is true for sure. CK gives you guys more 40+ yard play capability but you sacrifice a little on plays less than that IMO. Im sure it all evens out but the stats surprised me too. Not necessarily the percentages but the fact that CK puts the Niners in more 3rd down situations caught me off guard. I would have thought the opposite.

 

[MHSL82]

Damn someone has the stats right next to them lol

Well they are pretty close. But still I have seen the bigger plays from kap that we have been missing for some years

Yeah, stats aren't everything. Smith had a higher TD% (percent of drives resulting in a TD - though some were scored in the WildKaep), FG% (percent of drives resulting in a FG), points per drive, plays per drive, EPA per drive, goal-to-go TD %, lower 3 and out percentage, too (at least going into the last game). He also had a better red zone percentage (63.6 to 45.5), but when we score from outside the 20, that shouldn't count against anyone. To be fair, two of our first four TDs with Smith were from the 21, IIRC (including a Gore run). A bunch of Kaep's TDs, too. Smith trailed in third down percentage until after the Arizona game, where Smith now has a better percent (the Cardinal game wasn't great statistically, I blame Ginn for the starting position early). I'm relying on the stats above by rmilia, if they aren't correct, nevermind this.

49ers offensive drive info by quarterback - NFC West Blog - ESPN

But it would be silly to say that Kaep shouldn't start or wasn't more of a threat to the Packers. There are things that go beyond the stats and even the stats need to be taken into account that they were very close, which negates the downside compared to the upside of Kaep. I wouldn't discount the stats for experience because Harbaugh can't grade on a curve - he has to look at how it is now, not "considering his experience" - we need to win, so that doesn't help. However, Kaep is better now overall, especially in experience than he was weeks ago. And, oh I forgot, Kaep is more skilled than Smith and the Packers are less ready for him than Smith.

 

[MHSL82]

The quirky tales and controversy of Colin Kaepernick. | SportsonEarth.com : Gwen Knapp Article

I also go by the pen name of Gwen Knapp. (Referring to how long of a read this is... it doesn't look long based on the format, but keep scrolling down...) Still a good read, though.

 

[Jikkle]

I don't think you are going to see what you want to see out of Kaepernick this Saturday because the only way to beat GB is to hold on to the ball and make long, time-consuming drives. You won't see the dynamic down the field throws because even if successful, that gives the ball back to Rodgers that much quicker.

I'm expecting to see some big plays in the passing attack because I think the Pack are going to be so focused on stopping the run it's going to leave them open for them.

And the way to beat the Pack is to outscore them. I'll take a TD if takes 5 seconds or 5 minutes.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm expecting to see some big plays in the passing attack because I think the Pack are going to be so focused on stopping the run it's going to leave them open for them.

And the way to beat the Pack is to outscore them. I'll take a TD if takes 5 seconds or 5 minutes.

I'll take any TD as well, but I prefer 9 minute TDs for us and three and outs for them.

 

[Jikkle]

Actually that is false. Smith was 37-93 on 3rd downs this year. Kaep is 33-105. Smith is a full 8% better on 3rds than CK. Ironically Kaep also had way more 3rd down attempts which means that the Niners arent making as many big plays on 1st and 2nd down under CK as they did under Smith.

I think you have to factor in schedule as well and I thought CK had the more difficult part of the schedule than Alex Smith did.

There weren't any cupcakes like the Jets or Bills in CK's stretch and CK had to play in tough places like @New Orleans, @New England, and @Seattle. And the only bad defense he really played was New Orleans. The rest of the teams all had fairly solid and good defenses.

When you look at Alex Smith his best win was the Green Bay game. He lost against Minnesota, got crushed by the Giants, and even though the team won he looked bad against Seattle.

 

[yossarian]

The bolded part is true for sure. CK gives you guys more 40+ yard play capability but you sacrifice a little on plays less than that IMO. Im sure it all evens out but the stats surprised me too. Not necessarily the percentages but the fact that CK puts the Niners in more 3rd down situations caught me off guard. I would have thought the opposite.

So how you feeling about the Falcons game?

 

[TobyTyler]

I'm expecting to see some big plays in the passing attack because I think the Pack are going to be so focused on stopping the run it's going to leave them open for them.
And the way to beat the Pack is to outscore them. I'll take a TD if takes 5 seconds or 5 minutes.

Honestly, I don't think anyone fears the 49er running game at this point. As far as this team geting into a scoring duel with the Pack......are you crazy?

 

[jayviabay]

Honestly, I don't think anyone fears the 49er running game at this point. As far as this team geting into a scoring duel with the Pack......are you crazy?

Call me crazy but I believe the first match up was a 52 point game with the Niners being victorious

I think a scoring duel with the patriots, is more of an ulcer flare up than the pack

 

[Jikkle]

Honestly, I don't think anyone fears the 49er running game at this point. As far as this team geting into a scoring duel with the Pack......are you crazy?

I'm not talking about a scoring duel but you're not going to turn away 7 points regardless of how long it takes you.

I'd rather put Aaron Rodgers in a quick 14 point hole then grind out a 3 point lead.

I'm not saying that our gameplan should be to go out there and have CK wing 50 times a game but if the Pack are going to load the box to stop the run then we should make them pay dearly for it.

 

[TobyTyler]

I'm not talking about a scoring duel but you're not going to turn away 7 points regardless of how long it takes you.I'd rather put Aaron Rodgers in a quick 14 point hole then grind out a 3 point lead.

I'm not saying that our gameplan should be to go out there and have CK wing 50 times a game but if the Pack are going to load the box to stop the run then we should make them pay dearly for it.

Good point. I don't see the Packers loading the box though. The 49ers haven't had a good running day in a long time.

 

[Jikkle]

Good point. I don't see the Packers loading the box though. The 49ers haven't had a good running day in a long time.

If they don't then they'll be in for an extremely long day.

Defenses still focus on stopping the run when they play us and even moreso since CK has been in there since he's a huge threat with his legs.

With a week or rest especially for Gore the running game would have a big day against the Packers if they don't commit to stopping the run.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Good point. I don't see the Packers loading the box though. The 49ers haven't had a good running day in a long time.

What defines a "good" running day in your opinion?

 

[TobyTyler]

If they don't then they'll be in for an extremely long day.

Defenses still focus on stopping the run when they play us and even moreso since CK has been in there since he's a huge threat with his legs.

With a week or rest especially for Gore the running game would have a big day against the Packers if they don't commit to stopping the run.

They'll play us the way the Rams and Seahawks did when they shut us down completely. A heavy blitz scheme with a spy on Kaepernick when they don't blitz. That formula seems to baffle him.

 

[TobyTyler]

What defines a "good" running day in your opinion?

A hundred and fifty yards rushing by the running backs which they haven't come close to since kaepernick took over. Gore is worn out and Hunter is gone.

 

[ChrisPozz]

A hundred and fifty yards rushing by the running backs which they haven't come close to since kaepernick took over. Gore is worn out and Hunter is gone.

That's it? I thought or maybe had hoped you would have elaborated on what a good rushing day was. By those standards the 49ers have only had 3 good running games all year.


Week 1 vs. GB - 25 RB carries for 153 yards (6.1 avg)

Week 5 vs. BUF - 30 RB carries for 217 yards (7.2 avg)

Week 7 vs. SEA - 25 RB carries for 162 yards (6.5 avg)

------------------

RB yardage season totals (Weeks 1-17 with week 9 being the bye)

153
112
63
141
217
62
162
99
Bye
112
111
117
64
102
121
51
126

1st 8 games - 190 RB carries for 1,009 yards (5.3 avg). Five 100+ yard games.

2nd 8 games - 198 RB carries for 804 yards (4.1 avg). Six 100+ yard games.

------

Using Football Outsider's advanced run defense numbers, here is what the 1st 8 games look like:

14
24
7
15
31
21
12
16

Here is what the 2nd 8 games look like:

10
1
30
10
9
6
12
16

Another possible reason for fewer RB rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season is because the 49ers had a fairly tough or tougher schedule against the run in the back half.

There was about a 25 RB yards/game difference between the 1st half and 2nd half of the season. However, the 49ers had 1 more 100+ yard RB rushing day in that second half than the first half of the season (6 in the 2nd half, 5 in the 1st half).

----------

If 150 yards from the running back position wants to be somebody's benchmark for the RB position, fine, but I don't like looking at it simplistically or putting a figure on it and just going by that alone. If you do, fine.

If I'm forced to judge them statistically, instead of just looking for 150 yards like you said, are how many carries they received, quality carries/yards gained (when/how did they come?), and run defense difficulty, which I tried to show, would be just some of the things that would factor into my overall opinion. I would have included a write-up on those types if I would have the ability to go back and record those types of things. However, I did my best with the little time I have to work with for now.

-----------

The run will be obviously be key in this game. We agree on that. But I wouldn't put any kind of number that the 49ers need to get, though.

The 49ers are a much different running team now than in the first half (or around the first half) of the season as well. Hunter is a very big loss, in my opinion. Yes, that one hurts. They had trouble with Hunter in the 1st game. More than just in the running game, too. However, Kaepernick is being used more, which obviously adds something new to this game as well, though.

Anyways, obviously we disagree on some things. I've tried to show where I stand on this issue a little bit and how I don't necessarily like looking at things the way it appears you might be.

 

[imac_21]

Pozz, if you have access to a database or spreadsheet that makes this easy (I don't expect anyone to take the time to find it all from scratch), how many "good running days" did every team in the NFL combine for this year by NN's definition?

 

[ChrisPozz]

Pozz, if you have access to a database or spreadsheet that makes this easy (I don't expect anyone to take the time to find it all from scratch), how many "good running days" did every team in the NFL combine for this year by NN's definition?

Yeah. I'm on my old computer so I can't work with a spreadsheet right now. I thought about that as I was doing this. I wondered about what a team like the Redskins would look like. They'd have been my first comparison because of RGIII.

Maybe I'll work on that when I can because I'm kind of interested. My guess is that outside of the Redskins and Vikings, there aren't a whole bunch of games that fit this criteria.