Colin Kaepernick vs Alex Smith

[rmilia1]

I believe you picked the saints last yr too. You will be wrong again : ) lol

Seattle has a monster running game. The Pack has no running game. Seattle has a really good defense. The Pack has a below average defense. The only advantage GB has is at QB and the fact this game is in SF means SF should win. The only loss that really stings is J Smith and if you cant stop a one dimensional offense with your D, at home then you have more problems than I think you do.

 

[tzill]

Agreed mostly

I don't buy that argument that if we don't get to the NFC Championship game then the CK experiment failed because there is 0 guarantee that Alex Smith would've gotten us back either.

I do expect Kaepernick to be effective and I would consider it a disappointment if he wasn't. He's down some weapons but he still has Davis and Crabtree along with Gore and LMJ who's shaping up nicely. So there is no reason for him to not have some success.

But if he does have a bad performance out there then it wouldn't be something I close the book on him by any means.

I still consider CK as unpolished and despite it being year 2 I still see him as being less polished then the current rookie crop of Luck, RGIII, and RW. So there is still a ton of room for him and the offense to grow.

Alex was also down weapons last year. I think it's a fair analysis of the Harbaugh QB decision to grade it on how Kap plays Saturday. If he craps the bed, the move was a bad one for 2012. If he does OK, then it's a wash, and if he's stellar then Harbaugh is a genius. So far, the stats for 2012 are a wash between the two QBs.

 

[tzill]

I believe you picked the saints last yr too. You will be wrong again : ) lol

That guy is often wrong. I wouldn't worry too much about that. That said, I can see the Niners winning on Saturday -- it's a 50/50 proposition for me. I don't give them a great chance of playing two excellent games in a row on defense though, so the SB is a longshot -- something like 1/5.

 

[TobyTyler]

I believe you picked the saints last yr too. You will be wrong again : ) lol

Guilty as charged. I thought the Saints would win by 10. That made the victory so uch sweetewr. Itstill is one of the most enjoyable 49er games for me. It was so fucking exciting and so gratifying to see Alex Smith finally get some recognition. I was literally rolling around on the floor in ecstasy after Davis got that pass..

 

[MHSL82]

Rodgers and Kaepernick's numbers Week 11-17

 

[NinerSickness]

Rodgers or Kaepernick: You decide?

Ummmm.... Rodgers. Duh.

 

[MHSL82]

Rodgers or Kaepernick: You decide?

Ummmm.... Rodgers. Duh.

Yeah, that's why I edited the title to the article, because that, right now at least, is a silly question. Switch Rodgers and Kaep, and I think there wouldn't be much question on who wins. Now, this is because of experience and health, too. Our defense would beat their offense with Kaep because of experience and their defense, even with our injuries. Not that Kaep would do poorly or anything. Since we have a better defense, this game is interesting because there's a tradeoff. When Kaep is fully developed, I think this would be a better question.

 

[TobyTyler]

I'd forgotten about this:

"The 49ers kicked off the season with a 30-22 win over Green Bay. The 49ers ran the ball very well that day. But running the ball well has a very low correlation to victory in the NFL, contrary to conventional wisdom. Instead, the more efficient passing team usually wins.

And the win that day was due largely to an extraordinarily effective performance by Smith, who did something few quarterbacks do: Smith easily outplayed Rodgers, the most efficient and effective passer in the game today. Here's how they measured up back in Week 1:

• Smith: 20 of 26, 76.9 percent, 211 yards, 8.1 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 rating
• Rodgers: 30 of 44, 68.2 percent, 303 yards, 6.9 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT, 93.3 rating

Smith did everything better in the all-important passing efficiency indicators that ultimately win and lose NFL games. He completed a higher percentage of passes, got the ball downfield better, was more likely to get the ball in the end zone and did not suffer a turnover.


Read More: 49ers have a better shot at winning in NFL playoffs with Alex Smith, not Colin Kaepernick - NFL - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

 

[MHSL82]

49ers have a better shot at winning in NFL playoffs with Alex Smith, not Colin Kaepernick - NFL - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

I didn't think there was anyone out there making that argument. Anyone. Everyone just says experience. While I don't agree with the conclusion, the support he offers is interesting. You can poke holes in the support, but at least he tries to bring some support other than "experience." It's interesting that he brings up passer rating as being the stat that is more corelated with victory - Smith himself cited YPA as being the big stat and Kaep was higher than Smith. The article is still worth reading, I think, despite it's incorrect conclusion, IMO, and flaws. I think we could win with either QB, but Kaep is the guy and is good enough, limited experience and all, to win and be the right choice. If Harbaugh had believed Smith gave him the better chance (despite our beliefs), THEN it would be the wrong choice. Harbaugh did and should go with who he believes in more.

 

[Jikkle]

Read More: 49ers have a better shot at winning in NFL playoffs with Alex Smith, not Colin Kaepernick - NFL - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

Stats are tough in football because a lot of times it comes down to perspective.

I mean like this for example:
Rodgers vs Kaepernick last 7 starts

Based on those stats you I can come to conclusion that Rodgers and CK are performing essentially the same.

But anyone that watches football would pick Rodgers over CK without hesitation right now. And for me that's the same reasoning I would pick CK over Smith.

Just by watching the games I know CK can and is willing to make more difficult throws and those are the throws you're going to need in the playoffs and to beat good teams. He's always a far bigger threat with his legs then Smith was and can make some big plays with them.

 

[zman1527]

I'd forgotten about this:

"The 49ers kicked off the season with a 30-22 win over Green Bay. The 49ers ran the ball very well that day. But running the ball well has a very low correlation to victory in the NFL, contrary to conventional wisdom. Instead, the more efficient passing team usually wins.

And the win that day was due largely to an extraordinarily effective performance by Smith, who did something few quarterbacks do: Smith easily outplayed Rodgers, the most efficient and effective passer in the game today. Here's how they measured up back in Week 1:

• Smith: 20 of 26, 76.9 percent, 211 yards, 8.1 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 rating
• Rodgers: 30 of 44, 68.2 percent, 303 yards, 6.9 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT, 93.3 rating

Smith did everything better in the all-important passing efficiency indicators that ultimately win and lose NFL games. He completed a higher percentage of passes, got the ball downfield better, was more likely to get the ball in the end zone and did not suffer a turnover.


Read More: 49ers have a better shot at winning in NFL playoffs with Alex Smith, not Colin Kaepernick - NFL - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

I am one those who leaned toward sticking with smith this year despite Kaps greater physical attributes. Smith had shown he could get us to the SB, and was playing even better this year. We were on track with a proven commodity so why switch horses in midstream?

 

[zman1527]

Seattle has a monster running game. The Pack has no running game. Seattle has a really good defense. The Pack has a below average defense. The only advantage GB has is at QB and the fact this game is in SF means SF should win. The only loss that really stings is J Smith and if you cant stop a one dimensional offense with your D, at home then you have more problems than I think you do.

What about the receiver corp? I think they have a huge advantage there as well.

 

[rmilia1]

I didn't think there was anyone out there making that argument. Anyone. Everyone just says experience. While I don't agree with the conclusion, the support he offers is interesting. You can poke holes in the support, but at least he tries to bring some support other than "experience." It's interesting that he brings up passer rating as being the stat that is more corelated with victory - Smith himself cited YPA as being the big stat and Kaep was higher than Smith. The article is still worth reading, I think, despite it's incorrect conclusion, IMO, and flaws. I think we could win with either QB, but Kaep is the guy and is good enough, limited experience and all, to win and be the right choice. If Harbaugh had believed Smith gave him the better chance (despite our beliefs), THEN it would be the wrong choice. Harbaugh did and should go with who he believes in more.

None of the info he provided is new to anyone here. Its the same info that me and a few others provided 8 weeks ago when the move was made. The reality is that Kaep needs to win and play well on Saturday or this move wasted a potential SB winning year for the Niners. Period. Injuries are something every team has and to start using them as an excuse before the game is even played reeks of being scared. Harbaugh made the move to CK because he provided things Smith couldnt ( supposedly). So lets fucking see why the move was made. Show me the proof this week when it matters. I think he will. Thats why I picked SF to win.

 

[rmilia1]

What about the receiver corp? I think they have a huge advantage there as well.

Eh Im not so sure. I think there WR's look so good because of Rodgers. Im not sure Jennings, Nelson, Cobb etc are really a great receiving corp at all.

 

[KingFlea]

I am one those who leaned toward sticking with smith this year despite Kaps greater physical attributes. Smith had shown he could get us to the SB, and was playing even better this year. We were on track with a proven commodity so why switch horses in midstream?

I've said before that Im fine with either QB. The question this week is: will our coaches show up?

 

[Flyingiguana]

I've said before that Im fine with either QB. The question this week is: will our coaches show up?

roman had an extra week to figure out what he needs to do with kap. hopefully he gets his head out of his ass

 

[sjballer03]

roman had an extra week to figure out what he needs to do with kap. hopefully he gets his head out of his ass

Roman might have used the extra week to focus on getting the Jaguars HC position.

 

[KingFlea]

Roman might have used the extra week to focus on getting the Jaguars HC position.

Thats one of my concerns.

 

[TobyTyler]

roman had an extra week to figure out what he needs to do with kap. hopefully he gets his head out of his ass

I don't think you are going to see what you want to see out of Kaepernick this Saturday because the only way to beat GB is to hold on to the ball and make long, time-consuming drives. You won't see the dynamic down the field throws because even if successful, that gives the ball back to Rodgers that much quicker.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

I don't think you are going to see what you want to see out of Kaepernick this Saturday because the only way to beat GB is to hold on to the ball and make long, time-consuming drives. You won't see the dynamic down the field throws because even if successful, that gives the ball back to Rodgers that much quicker.

Kap has led plenty of long sustaining drives already and in crucial times. Smith would be able to do that but he lacked a big throw on 3rd down to keep drives going when they were 3rd and longer then 5. Kap brings that bigger play ability to keep drives going.

We just need to get our ground game with frank going again like it was beginning of the yr.