Colin Kaepernick vs Alex Smith

[Jikkle]

Was undecided on whether to start this thread but I did find it funny that both CK and Smith wound up with exactly the same amount of Attempts which made comparing them stat wise easy.

Alex Smith:
ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL
218 153 70.2 1737 8.0 160.0 55 13 6.0 5 2.3 24 137
RATE
104.1

Colin Kaepernick:
ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL
218 136 62.4 1814 8.3 130.9 57 10 4.6 3 1.4 16 112
RATE
98.3

Things that stuck out to me was CK actually had less INTs then Smith did but I will say Smith got his in bunches against the Giants.

CK taking 8 less sacks was expected.

A little surprised at the YDS/G total favored Smith by 60 yards especially since CK nearly had 100 more yards total on 17 less completions.

 

[Jikkle]

Meh the format didn't turn out like it did when I typed it so here's a link for clarity

SF 49er stats

 

[Bemular]

Was undecided on whether to start this thread but I did find it funny that both CK and Smith wound up with exactly the same amount of Attempts which made comparing them stat wise easy.

Alex Smith:
ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL
218 153 70.2 1737 8.0 160.0 55 13 6.0 5 2.3 24 137
RATE
104.1

Colin Kaepernick:
ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL
218 136 62.4 1814 8.3 130.9 57 10 4.6 3 1.4 16 112
RATE
98.3

Things that stuck out to me was CK actually had less INTs then Smith did but I will say Smith got his in bunches against the Giants.

CK taking 8 less sacks was expected.

A little surprised at the YDS/G total favored Smith by 60 yards especially since CK nearly had 100 more yards total on 17 less completions.

Kaps Yds/Gm is diminished greatly because he appeared in several games prior to starting and those games are counted in the denominator.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Here's a pretty detailed breakdown and somewhat detailed analysis:

Bay Area Sports Guy – Numbers don’t lie: Revisiting the statistical comparison between Smith and Kaepernick

 

[Arete Tzu]

Kaps Yds/Gm is diminished greatly because he appeared in several games prior to starting and those games are counted in the denominator.

indeed. The games where he ran a couple wildkeap plays shouldn't be included in a yards per game stat.

if you count from the rams game forward it 215 instead of 130.

 

[Bemular]

indeed. The games where he ran a couple wildkeap plays shouldn't be included in a yards per game stat.

if you count from the rams game forward it 215 instead of 130.

Exactly, and if you consider just his starts he was at 230 Yds/Gm (229.7)

 

[Kinzu]

Despite 8 less Sacks Kaep has only loss 25 less yards. He loses a ton of yards when he does go down.

 

[NinerSickness]

Despite 8 less Sacks Kaep has only loss 25 less yards.

Fewer.

 

[MHSL82]

I thought I kept reading that with Kaep we'd have more INTs but more TDs? But instead we got fewer INTs and fewer TDs. Not making any conclusions based upon this, just thought it was funny that the big statistical arguments against Kaep playing (INTs) and the big rebuttal to that argument for Kaep playing (TDs to make up for it) didn't bear itself in the stats. That being said, there were other things that were pro-Kaep (like little hesitancy, strength of arm, etc.), stats aren't everything, playcalls for a young player is different, and Kaep had next to zero experience going into his first start.

I'd like Sando to redo his stats from his article pre-Cardinals to account for the Cardinals game. That article had Smith leading in everything but third down conversion rate, 35.9 to 35.2. But all of them were so close except red zone % (65 to 46 or something along those lines). Kaep made up for that with outside of the red zone TDs presumably. I was impressed for only seven starts.

 

[MHSL82]

indeed. The games where he ran a couple wildkeap plays shouldn't be included in a yards per game stat.

if you count from the rams game forward it 215 instead of 130.

Exactly, and if you consider just his starts he was at 230 Yds/Gm (229.7)

I agree. I'd like to take out all the wildKaep games and take out the last Cardinals game from Smith. And since we can, I'd adjust the first Rams game, too. Because that lowered Smith's yards by 150+ (imo) and Kaep's yards by 72 presumably (the yards Smith got). I don't know what would be a fair adjustment, we could give total yards to both QBs for that game. We could split it in two. Because we're not trying to give credit for the yards, just judge the output by those players, right? A game where you come inor leave in the second quarter doesn't accurately report that. And obviously, a wildKaep game doesn't either. Plus, we run the clock out and run a lot, but so do other teams. So lower passing could but does not necessarily equal poor offense.

 

[threelittleturds]

I'd have to imagine the 3rd down percentage really took a hit after the patriots and seahawks games.

 

[Bemular]

For those who are insecure that Kap might be getting an unfair advantage with the numbers posted earlier here are what the adjusted Yds/Gm #'s would look like for both QB's

Smith = 210 Yds/Gm
Kap...= 222 Yds/Gm

 

[Arete Tzu]

I agree. I'd like to take out all the wildKaep games and take out the last Cardinals game from Smith. And since we can, I'd adjust the first Rams game, too. Because that lowered Smith's yards by 150+ (imo) and Kaep's yards by 72 presumably (the yards Smith got). I don't know what would be a fair adjustment, we could give total yards to both QBs for that game. We could split it in two. Because we're not trying to give credit for the yards, just judge the output by those players, right? A game where you come inor leave in the second quarter doesn't accurately report that. And obviously, a wildKaep game doesn't either. Plus, we run the clock out and run a lot, but so do other teams. So lower passing could but does not necessarily equal poor offense.

I know we've had about 5 maybe 6 dropped TD passes with kaep as well weather it was walkers stone hands or DBs interfering.

 

[MHSL82]

I know we've had about 5 maybe 6 dropped TD passes with kaep as well weather it was walkers stone hands or DBs interfering.

? I know of two Walker TDs and perhaps a Davis one, if you question his effort like some did. Two if you stretch it. I can't remember the others, as the ones Moss could have I think he made up for in preventing a few INTs. There was that PI on the would be TD for Moss and the triple teamed one when he was still the backup. I think his dropped TDs and should have been INTs fall around the same vicinity as his current TD/INT rate. I am NOT talking about any other QB, just about Kaep, as I don't believe much in should have been TDs or INTs in general. I did feel for the Rams' TD drop though, just not overall numbers. Crabtree had a TD taken away from him last year in Cincinnati, though I have heard it both ways, so a lot of people have some injustices to their overall numbers, both good and bad.

 

[MHSL82]

Blah, blah, blah. Forget my last post, if you haven't already.

 

[rmilia1]

So basically the numbers are exactly the same with one guy having slight edges in a few categories and the other slight edges in other ones??? Weird. So at this point you have gotten no better and lost experience. Congrats on that one.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

So basically the numbers are exactly the same with one guy having slight edges in a few categories and the other slight edges in other ones??? Weird. So at this point you have gotten no better and lost experience. Congrats on that one.

The QB stats don't include one other key number that is one sided in the favor of Kaep. Think intuitively about what that stat would be and then with all else equal it makes complete sense that we're going with Kaep.

 

[rmilia1]

The QB stats don't include one other key number that is one sided in the favor of Kaep. Think intuitively about what that stat would be and then with all else equal it makes complete sense that we're going with Kaep.

Tattoos???

 

[zman1527]

The QB stats don't include one other key number that is one sided in the favor of Kaep. Think intuitively about what that stat would be and then with all else equal it makes complete sense that we're going with Kaep.

Easy, running. Which has been critical for some big plays/drives. If I remember right in his first game we had about 1 minute to get a FG to tie and go to OT. Kap scrambled for 20 yards on the first play that it the drive off to a great start.

I think that and the fewer sacks are critical. Sacks are drive killers, long runs made from near sacks are key plays. Kap rules there.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

Easy, running. Which has been critical for some big plays/drives. If I remember right in his first game we had about 1 minute to get a FG to tie and go to OT. Kap scrambled for 20 yards on the first play that it the drive off to a great start.

I think that and the fewer sacks are critical. Sacks are drive killers, long runs made from near sacks are key plays. Kap rules there.

exactly