Colin Kaepernick vs Alex Smith

[Crimsoncrew]

So basically the numbers are exactly the same with one guy having slight edges in a few categories and the other slight edges in other ones??? Weird. So at this point you have gotten no better and lost experience. Congrats on that one.

And we have gotten no worse and gained vast potential. You keep referring to experience as if it's some magical element. If Smith's greater experience doesn't produce any appreciable statistical difference, and Kap has shown that he can make big plays late in close games, how much of a benefit is it really?

As far as teams winning with a young QB, you're right that it hasn't happened since Tom Brady. But how many teams have won without an elite QB? TB in '03 and Baltimore in '01 did it with guys who were never really even above average (Dilfer not even close, though Johnson wasn't bad that year). You could argue that Brady wasn't elite in his first go-around, or Eli in his first, but those guys clearly had "it." So you're talking about two teams in the last 20 years that have won with a QB that wasn't either elite or on the cusp of greatness. Now, I'm certainly not claiming Kap is elite at this point, but he's got more potential for greatness than Smith does IMO. So if we're going to base this on the historical record, I'd just as soon take my shot with Kap.

 

[Flyingiguana]

wasn't roethlisberger a rookie when he won it?

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Is Eli really an elite QB? I think this has become a self-fufilling prophecy, where winning the SB makes people call a QB elite, then we say you need an elite QB to win a SB. I would say to be called "elite" you should probably at least have to be top-5......which in a 32 team league still isn't all that. Eli is not in there, lots of big plays but too many mistakes and too many bad games.

Eli Manning NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

And I'd make a similar argument about Roethlisberger. These are good, maybe very good QBs, but lets not make it like these guys are some special or HOF quality players. They were QBs for very good teams that can put together stretches of excellent play......like a lot of guys can.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

FWIW, if you can look at one stat that tells the most of the story, and correlates the most with both team and individual success its YPA. Manning over the years:

2007 - 6.3 - 26th
2008 - 6.8 - 21st
2009 - 7.9 - 10th
2010 - 7.4 - 9th
2011 - 8.4 - 4th
2012 - 7.4 - 12th

Stats aren't everything, and YPA isn't everything, but I don't think you can find any measure other than SB wins that puts Eli near the top of any list of QBs.

 

[yossarian]

wasn't roethlisberger a rookie when he won it?

Yes, with the worst performance ever by a winning SB qb.

 

[rmilia1]

And we have gotten no worse and gained vast potential. You keep referring to experience as if it's some magical element. If Smith's greater experience doesn't produce any appreciable statistical difference, and Kap has shown that he can make big plays late in close games, how much of a benefit is it really?

As far as teams winning with a young QB, you're right that it hasn't happened since Tom Brady. But how many teams have won without an elite QB? TB in '03 and Baltimore in '01 did it with guys who were never really even above average (Dilfer not even close, though Johnson wasn't bad that year). You could argue that Brady wasn't elite in his first go-around, or Eli in his first, but those guys clearly had "it." So you're talking about two teams in the last 20 years that have won with a QB that wasn't either elite or on the cusp of greatness. Now, I'm certainly not claiming Kap is elite at this point, but he's got more potential for greatness than Smith does IMO. So if we're going to base this on the historical record, I'd just as soon take my shot with Kap.

I hear you man and I am by no means disagreeing. All I am saying is that this is a win now league. Thats it. Teams go 3-13 one year and 11-5 the next all the time and teams go 12-4 one year and 6-10 the next al the time as well. No guarantee that the Niners will even be in the playoffs the next 5 years ( although I am sure they will be). I just hate the thought of mortgaging the present for the future and while I certainly dont think you guys are doing that to a huge extent I do think you have not given yourself a better chance to win the SB THIS year. Thats all I am saying.

 

[rmilia1]

wasn't roethlisberger a rookie when he won it?

Wasnt he 2nd or 3rd year?? Im pretty sure he was a rookie in 04 and they won in 05-06. Not sure though.

 

[Bemular]

Yes, with the worst performance ever by a winning SB qb.

I was going to respond to iguana and advise that not only wasn't Roethlisberger a rookie but he sure as hell didn't "win" anything in that SB.

 

[Bemular]

I hear you man and I am by no means disagreeing. All I am saying is that this is a win now league. Thats it. Teams go 3-13 one year and 11-5 the next all the time and teams go 12-4 one year and 6-10 the next al the time as well. No guarantee that the Niners will even be in the playoffs the next 5 years ( although I am sure they will be). I just hate the thought of mortgaging the present for the future and while I certainly dont think you guys are doing that to a huge extent I do think you have not given yourself a better chance to win the SB THIS year. Thats all I am saying.

Wow! All of these really scary hypothetical situations ruling your brain, you must spend all of your time just in tears!! Well, don't cry Buckwheat, I've good news! We are going to be just fine!. We haven't mortgaged anything at all; in fact, we have increased our chances of winning the SB THIS year.

And, even if we don't win the SB this year, or hell, even if we don't win a playoff game this year, we still have given our team the best chance to win in the post-season with Colin as our starting QB. (It is all about those tricky intangibles again - damn those things!)

But your concern for our team is laughable, I mean adorable - So please keep us in your heart rsilly1.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Is Eli really an elite QB? I think this has become a self-fufilling prophecy, where winning the SB makes people call a QB elite, then we say you need an elite QB to win a SB. I would say to be called "elite" you should probably at least have to be top-5......which in a 32 team league still isn't all that. Eli is not in there, lots of big plays but too many mistakes and too many bad games.

Eli Manning NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

And I'd make a similar argument about Roethlisberger. These are good, maybe very good QBs, but lets not make it like these guys are some special or HOF quality players. They were QBs for very good teams that can put together stretches of excellent play......like a lot of guys can.

That's a fair complaint. And the word "elite" may be too narrow to fairly apply to all those guys. But at the very least, I think we have to go with "very good." Eli is about as inconsistent as you can get, but he's been arguably the most clutch QB in the league for several years. Ben is the same way. Their numbers may not be elite on a regular basis, but those guys are just really tough to beat. Obviously there is an element of a self-fulfilling prophecy in that, but we're not talking about guys who only put together one run, either. And while neither was great in their first SB, they have certainly carried their teams into and during the SB since that.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I hear you man and I am by no means disagreeing. All I am saying is that this is a win now league. Thats it. Teams go 3-13 one year and 11-5 the next all the time and teams go 12-4 one year and 6-10 the next al the time as well. No guarantee that the Niners will even be in the playoffs the next 5 years ( although I am sure they will be). I just hate the thought of mortgaging the present for the future and while I certainly dont think you guys are doing that to a huge extent I do think you have not given yourself a better chance to win the SB THIS year. Thats all I am saying.

I don't know how much you've seen of Alex Smith, but he's not a great QB. He's a solid QB who can play pretty good, mistake free football. But he's got some pretty serious limitations that were holding the team back. I genuinely believe this team is as good or better right now with Kap at QB, especially after a bye week when we can actually take the time to implement some more involved schematic stuff.

 

[Bemular]

I don't know how much you've seen of Alex Smith, but he's not a great QB. He's a solid QB who can play pretty good, mistake free football. But he's got some pretty serious limitations that were holding the team back. I genuinely believe this team is as good or better right now with Kap at QB, especially after a bye week when we can actually take the time to implement some more involved schematic stuff.

Solid? How are you defining solid?

 

[MHSL82]

Solid? How are you defining solid?

Harbaugh could hit him before the games and he wouldn't jiggle like water or dissipate like gas.

 

[Bemular]

Harbaugh could hit him before the games and he wouldn't jiggle like water or dissipate like gas.

Yes, that is precisely what Crimsoncrew implied - I should have known the answer from my grade-school days. Seriously though, solid is such a ambiguous term, I'm always curious how it is applied and/or defined.

 

[Jikkle]

Yes, with the worst performance ever by a winning SB qb.

He took them to the AFC championship his rookie year in game where he Romoed it with 3 INTs.

In his second year he took them the Super Bowl in 05. Had an ok season, good playoffs, and terrible SB. It was clear the defense was what was carrying the day though.

 

[Jikkle]

I hear you man and I am by no means disagreeing. All I am saying is that this is a win now league. Thats it. Teams go 3-13 one year and 11-5 the next all the time and teams go 12-4 one year and 6-10 the next al the time as well. No guarantee that the Niners will even be in the playoffs the next 5 years ( although I am sure they will be). I just hate the thought of mortgaging the present for the future and while I certainly dont think you guys are doing that to a huge extent I do think you have not given yourself a better chance to win the SB THIS year. Thats all I am saying.

Harbaugh made the move because he felt Smith gave the 9ers little chance to go and win the Super Bowl. Smith would've faced a great defense and came up short just like the Giant's in the NFC championship game. Yes that game was lost on special teams errors but if Smith was able to convert more 3rd downs and actually get completions to WRs then Kyle Williams fumbling the ball may not have even been a factor.

So if you don't believe Smith can win you the Super Bowl then you're better off rolling the dice and hoping CK can exceed Smith's level of play.

Yea you might crap out and CK could stink up the joint but at least you've given him a headstart in getting him some starts so he's ready for next season and give yourself a better chance at a Super Bowl then.

 

[MHSL82]

Harbaugh made the move because he felt Smith gave the 9ers little chance to go and win the Super Bowl. Smith would've faced a great defense and came up short just like the Giant's in the NFC championship game. Yes that game was lost on special teams errors but if Smith was able to convert more 3rd downs and actually get completions to WRs then Kyle Williams fumbling the ball may not have even been a factor.

So if you don't believe Smith can win you the Super Bowl then you're better off rolling the dice and hoping CK can exceed Smith's level of play.

Yea you might crap out and CK could stink up the joint but at least you've given him a headstart in getting him some starts so he's ready for next season and give yourself a better chance at a Super Bowl then.

I agree sort of. Harbaugh went with Kaep because he felt Kaep gave the 9ers a better chance to go and win the Superbowl. Not necessarily because Smith gave him "little chance" - that's our interpretation. I tend to go with the more exact interpretation - regardless of what he thinks of Smith, he thinks Kaep gives him a better chance despite the experience limitation. I don't see a reason to further interpret it. He's a guy that talks about getting 1% better, Kaep was at least that (more), so he went with him. I don't think Harbaugh went with Smith at the beginning of the year and kept him half the year thinking he had little chance. He thought he had a better chance, until he saw and felt Kaep gave him the better chance.

 

[Kinzu]

Kaep has big play potential, but our running game has been surprisingly worst with him at QB. It also seems like our offense is more reliant on those big plays now to move the football. It seems like we gained big play potential but lost some ability to sustain drives and time of possession.

 

[wartyOne]

Yes, with the worst performance ever by a winning SB qb.

Roethlisberger was in his second season when he beat the Seahawks. The Steelers were 15-1 with Roethlisberger in his rookie year before getting annihilated by the Patriots in Pittsburgh in the AFCC.

 

[wartyOne]

Sorry for the re-re-re-repost of the correction. I hadn't gotten all the way through the thread yet.