cfb AP Poll as Accurate as a Coin Toss

[socaljim242]

So you're not going to take the bet and stand by your predictive post?

No shame in being called out and backing down from the UCFacts

#UCFacts

I told you I will take the bet. You have to give me your two.

 

[Rolltide94]

Nope. It's an all or nothing bet. You have both Clemson and Bama.

I don't believe in the committee or anyone for that matter predictive abilities.

#UCFacts

I'll give you a two year avi bet that UCF is not in the playoffs...put up or shut up.

 

[BamaDude]

I told you I will take the bet. You have to give me your two.

i THINK THAT ucfANTASY is conceding that one of the two big dogs will be there, but is betting that both of them won't be. So, he only needs to come up with ONE team to replace the missing member.

 

[BamaDude]

I'll give you a two year avi bet that UCF is not in the playoffs...put up or shut up.

I think he already knows that, but just won't admit it.

 

[socaljim242]

i THINK THAT ucfANTASY is conceding that one of the two big dogs will be there, but is betting that both of them won't be. So, he only needs to come up with ONE team to replace the missing member.

Yeah but he's a wuss and wont give me his two teams. I just want him to waste one of his picks on UCFraud

 

[UCFhonors]

I will take a bet that EITHER Alabama or Clemson wins the national title. Couldn't care less who they play in the title game, since they may play each other in the first round.

I'll go the other way. 2 months Avi bet for only 2 weeks for you if you can accurately predict the 4 team the ESP5N Cartel committee chooses for their little invitational.

Deal?

#UCFacts

 

[UCFhonors]

This is a statistical quagmire. How can there be more teams ranked at #6 & #9, and fewer at #7 if there are the same number of teams in the poll? I can understand fewer teams listed at #11-25 since there were a few years that only the top 10 were listed & several years that the cut-off ended at #20; but how do you explain those particular abnormalities?

I'm assuming the 70s are ties. But good observations. The ability for ties creates inconsistent data.

#UCFacts

 

[UCFhonors]

I'll give you a two year avi bet that UCF is not in the playoffs...put up or shut up.

I'll take that bet when FBS UCFinally has a sanctioned legit playoff like all other D1 team sports. Maybe in 7 years that will happen.

#UCFacts

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

Yeah but he's a wuss and wont give me his two teams. I just want him to waste one of his picks on UCFraud

Nah, he wouldn’t pick UCF and get embarrassed when they’re nowhere near the top 4, but he’ll blame it on the “bias” pollsters instead of their weakass schedule.

 

[7Samurai13]

Nah, he wouldn’t pick UCF and get embarrassed when they’re nowhere near the top 4, but he’ll blame it on the “bias” pollsters instead of their weakass schedule.

Schedule will get even weaker after Stanford game is rained out.

 

[TheReal_NU]

I'll go the other way. 2 months Avi bet for only 2 weeks for you if you can accurately predict the 4 team the ESP5N Cartel committee chooses for their little invitational.

Deal?

#UCFacts

If he can do that, then he can make a shit ton in Vegas with a 4-team parlay.

 

[Deep Creek]

This is a statistical quagmire. How can there be more teams ranked at #6 & #9, and fewer at #7 if there are the same number of teams in the poll? I can understand fewer teams listed at #11-25 since there were a few years that only the top 10 were listed & several years that the cut-off ended at #20; but how do you explain those particular abnormalities?

Damn BD! I don't know what's worse. That you caught that quagmire OR that you wasted time reading all that shit he posted!

 

[Rolltide94]

I'll take that bet when FBS UCFinally has a sanctioned legit playoff like all other D1 team sports. Maybe in 7 years that will happen.

#UCFacts

UCF doesn't want to make the playoffs, it's a lot easier to pretend you are good that it is to actually go out and win two games that matter.

 

[BamaDude]

Damn BD! I don't know what's worse. That you caught that quagmire OR that you wasted time reading all that shit he posted!

I didn't read it all. I just scanned the left-hand column & saw the inconsistencies.

 

[7Samurai13]

UCF doesn't want to make the playoffs, it's a lot easier to pretend you are good that it is to actually go out and win two games that matter.

Don’t I know it.

 

[Voltaire26]

2017 UCF won the NC, noob

#UCFacts

Michigan won the National Championship that year #MichiganWolverineFacts!!!

Sure we were 8-5 that year and no one ranked us #1 and we were not in the Championship Game, but why would that matter?

 

[TheReal_NU]

Michigan won the National Championship that year #MichiganWolverineFacts!!!

Sure we were 8-5 that year and no one ranked us #1 and we were not in the Championship Game, but why would that matter?

I think you split it with 4-8 Nebraska.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

As we all should recognize in today's information age, Polls are click bait. It's easy to see how bias and inaccurate they are.

This is especially bad considering that Final polls basically ignore records, and wins & losses.

There have been 1464 teams that have been "ranked" int he AP preseason polls.

Of the teams ranked in the preseason poll, 909 have finished ranked (62.1%).

Of the 701 teams that were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason, 537 have finished ranked, 375 finishing in the top 10.

Preseason #1 teams have finished unranked 6 times.

Preseason #2 teams have finished unranked 5 times.

The following chart shows how many times each position has been ranked and how many times the team at that position finished ranked:

1 69 63
2 69 64
3 69 55
4 69 52
5 69 60
6 70 54
7 68 49
8 69 47
9 70 45
10 69 41
11 63 33
12 61 32
13 62 30
14 62 37
15 62 29
16 63 34
17 63 33
18 60 26
19 63 32
20 65 32
21 29 18
22 30 15
23 30 9
24 31 11
25 29 8

The average winning percentage of teams that were ranked in the preseason is 0.714

The average winning percentage of teams that were ranked top 10 in the preseason is 0.769 which is 10 wins out of 13 games.

1 (686-119-10)--0.848
2 (691-120-14)--0.846
3 (611-183-14)--0.765
4 (614-188-12)--0.762
5 (634-166-18)--0.786
6 (619-187-14)--0.763
7 (581-202-16)--0.737
8 (596-200-13)--0.745
9 (597-211-16)--0.734
10 (554-236-14)--0.698
11 (497-217-20)--0.691
12 (479-229-13)--0.673
13 (491-224-14)--0.683
14 (508-213-11)--0.702
15 (466-240-15)--0.657
16 (485-248-7)--0.660
17 (492-234-15)--0.674
18 (457-236-10)--0.657
19 (486-236-7)--0.671
20 (484-259-13)--0.649
21 (255-106-2)--0.705
22 (242-128-0)--0.654
23 (224-143-1)--0.610
24 (248-138-3)--0.641
25 (214-143-0)--0.599


Of the preseason ranked teams, 56 have finished undefeated and untied.

The lowest starting position to end up undefeated was un-ranked UCF in 2017. Auburn is 2nd at 22 in 2010.

The worse winning percentage among preseason ranked teams was USC in 1957 who finished with a 1-9 record.

162 teams ranked in the preseason finished with a losing record.

#UCFacts

Someone wasted a metric fuckton of time compiling that nonsense.

"PRESEASON POLLS AREN'T ACCURATE!" No fucking shit, junior.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I'll go the other way. 2 months Avi bet for only 2 weeks for you if you can accurately predict the 4 team the ESP5N Cartel committee chooses for their little invitational.

Deal?

#UCFacts

The other teams are irrelevant. Alabama or Clemson will win it.

 

[UCFhonors]

If he can do that, then he can make a shit ton in Vegas with a 4-team parlay.

That's the astonishing thing. Tshirt bandwangors and sports pundits all seem 100% confident who the best teams are. But if they were really that confident and were right they would make a killing in Vegas. Since they don't they are all FOS.

#UCFacts