cfb AP Poll as Accurate as a Coin Toss

[UCFhonors]

As we all should recognize in today's information age, Polls are click bait. It's easy to see how bias and inaccurate they are.

This is especially bad considering that Final polls basically ignore records, and wins & losses.

There have been 1464 teams that have been "ranked" int he AP preseason polls.

Of the teams ranked in the preseason poll, 909 have finished ranked (62.1%).

Of the 701 teams that were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason, 537 have finished ranked, 375 finishing in the top 10.

Preseason #1 teams have finished unranked 6 times.

Preseason #2 teams have finished unranked 5 times.

The following chart shows how many times each position has been ranked and how many times the team at that position finished ranked:

1 69 63
2 69 64
3 69 55
4 69 52
5 69 60
6 70 54
7 68 49
8 69 47
9 70 45
10 69 41
11 63 33
12 61 32
13 62 30
14 62 37
15 62 29
16 63 34
17 63 33
18 60 26
19 63 32
20 65 32
21 29 18
22 30 15
23 30 9
24 31 11
25 29 8

The average winning percentage of teams that were ranked in the preseason is 0.714

The average winning percentage of teams that were ranked top 10 in the preseason is 0.769 which is 10 wins out of 13 games.

1 (686-119-10)--0.848
2 (691-120-14)--0.846
3 (611-183-14)--0.765
4 (614-188-12)--0.762
5 (634-166-18)--0.786
6 (619-187-14)--0.763
7 (581-202-16)--0.737
8 (596-200-13)--0.745
9 (597-211-16)--0.734
10 (554-236-14)--0.698
11 (497-217-20)--0.691
12 (479-229-13)--0.673
13 (491-224-14)--0.683
14 (508-213-11)--0.702
15 (466-240-15)--0.657
16 (485-248-7)--0.660
17 (492-234-15)--0.674
18 (457-236-10)--0.657
19 (486-236-7)--0.671
20 (484-259-13)--0.649
21 (255-106-2)--0.705
22 (242-128-0)--0.654
23 (224-143-1)--0.610
24 (248-138-3)--0.641
25 (214-143-0)--0.599


Of the preseason ranked teams, 56 have finished undefeated and untied.

The lowest starting position to end up undefeated was un-ranked UCF in 2017. Auburn is 2nd at 22 in 2010.

The worse winning percentage among preseason ranked teams was USC in 1957 who finished with a 1-9 record.

162 teams ranked in the preseason finished with a losing record.

#UCFacts

 

[TheReal_NU]

I like potato salad

 

[outofyourmind]

So, what I hear the OP saying is that Oklahoma deserves the most consideration of anybody, when considering pre-season polls.

 

[it'sHuskers4me]

People care most about the 4 playoff teams at the end of the season - other than that I got nothing else to add.

 

[socaljim242]

Yup it's a coin toss .... heads it's Clemson and tails it's Alabama

 

[UCFhonors]

Yup it's a coin toss .... heads it's Clemson and tails it's Alabama

I'll take that bet.

2 weeks avi bet that Clemson and Bama are not both in the in Invitational Finals this year.

Deal?

#UCFacts

 

[socaljim242]

I'll take that bet.

2 weeks avi bet that Clemson and Bama are not both in the in Invitational Finals this year.

Deal?

#UCFacts

Ok but you have to give me two that you think will be and the closest is the winner.

 

[ellupo]

Yup it's a coin toss .... heads it's Clemson and tails it's Alabama

Until they are stopped from buying or trying to buy every good player like was done with Rashan Gary it will continue.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Though 100% of the time the AP has accurately both predicted UCF not winning a national title, and accurately finished without UCF winning a national title.

 

[UCFhonors]

Ok but you have to give me two that you think will be and the closest is the winner.

Nope. It's an all or nothing bet. You have both Clemson and Bama.

I don't believe in the committee or anyone for that matter predictive abilities.

#UCFacts

 

[UCFhonors]

Though 100% of the time the AP has accurately both predicted UCF not winning a national title, and accurately finished without UCF winning a national title.

2017 UCF won the NC, noob

#UCFacts

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

2017 UCF won the NC, noob

#UCFacts

UCF finished 6th in the 2017 AP poll:

2017 NCAA Division I FBS football rankings - Wikipedia

 

[socaljim242]

Nope. It's an all or nothing bet. You have both Clemson and Bama.

I don't believe in the committee or anyone for that matter predictive abilities.

#UCFacts

You don't believe in your own predictive abilities it sounds like

 

[ericd7633]

UCF finished 6th in the 2017 AP poll:

2017 NCAA Division I FBS football rankings - Wikipedia

He's doing that thing where Colley had them ranked #1. The same Colley that had ND #1 in 2012. And yes after the BCS CG loss.

 

[socaljim242]

He's doing that thing where Colley had them ranked #1. The same Colley that had ND #1 in 2012. And yes after the BCS CG loss.

Well they were the #1 team in Central Florida.

 

[UCFhonors]

You don't believe in your own predictive abilities it sounds like

So you're not going to take the bet and stand by your predictive post?

No shame in being called out and backing down from the UCFacts

#UCFacts

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

So you're not going to take the bet and stand by your predictive post?

No shame in being called out and backing down from the UCFacts

#UCFacts

I will take a bet that EITHER Alabama or Clemson wins the national title. Couldn't care less who they play in the title game, since they may play each other in the first round.

 

[The Crimson King]

How many times did you toss the coin?

 

[Justin Tyme]

Where's that damn centipede when you need it?

 

[BamaDude]

The following chart shows how many times each position has been ranked and how many times the team at that position finished ranked:

1 69 63
2 69 64
3 69 55
4 69 52
5 69 60
6 70 54
7 68 49
8 69 47
9 70 45
10 69 41
11 63 33
12 61 32
13 62 30
14 62 37
15 62 29
16 63 34
17 63 33
18 60 26
19 63 32
20 65 32
21 29 18
22 30 15
23 30 9
24 31 11
25 29 8

This is a statistical quagmire. How can there be more teams ranked at #6 & #9, and fewer at #7 if there are the same number of teams in the poll? I can understand fewer teams listed at #11-25 since there were a few years that only the top 10 were listed & several years that the cut-off ended at #20; but how do you explain those particular abnormalities?