Bucky Brooks: 9ers will field one of the most explosive offenses

[threelittleturds]

Niners will field one of the NFL's most explosive offenses in 2012 - NFL.com

High expectations from an outside source. Shoot, I'd just be happy with the 10th best offense to go along with that great defense.

 

[clyde_carbon]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't improve we won't.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't improve we won't.

While I agree with the basic premise of this statement, assuming I'm interpreting the premise correctly, I don't know that the statement itself is right.

While Smith is clearly the primary factor in offensive improvement, I'm not sure that we will have one of the most explosive offenses in the league even if he develops into an elite player. I just don't see it. Even with the best QB in college football, Harbaugh maintained a balanced offensive approach. Now, Stanford wasn't exactly stacked at the WR position, but they could have slung the rock a lot more than they did. Instead, they continued to run the ball. A lot. In fact, if anything, their attack was run-heavy (58.5%).

I can't see the Niners being more explosive - which I'm mostly associating with big pass plays, though admittedly some run plays can be explosive as well - than teams like the Saints, Lions, Packers, Pats, or even the Giants. If only because of our coach and the talent we have at RB. This past season, we would have had to throw the ball 28% more just to crack the top-10 in attempts, and 32% more to crack the top-5. While an increase of 15% is certainly possible, 30% would reflect a complete change in offensive philosophy. It seems very unlikely regardless of what Smith does.

On the topic of Smith, it is kind of remarkable how young he still is. He turned 28 last month. Drew Brees was 27 when he went to NO. Eli didn't really make a jump in his play until 28 (won a SB one month after turning 27, but I think it's safe to say he was more along for the ride on that one). Even Aaron Rodgers was 27 during his breakout season. If Smith can put it together - and it's a HUGE if - he's probably got 7+ years left at a high level. It will be interesting to see. And to follow Kap as well.

 

[Jikkle]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't improve we won't.

I think it's not a question IF but how much he'll improve. Any QB should improve under the conditions Alex Smith has right now. But I agree with the statement that how effective our offense will be is on Alex Smith now.

I agree with Bucky and after the draft I've held the belief that offensively we're going to be surprisingly good because I think the various formations we run and our ability to hit defenses with both power AND speed is going to be a nightmare for defenses to scheme against.

I mean when you really dig deep a team like the Packers isn't that difficult to figure out and scheme against. Aaron Rodgers and the weapons around him are just so unbelievably good that it really didn't matter if you knew what they were going to do they still beat you with overwhelming talent.

Explosive was just the wrong word to use because while I believe the offense will be more explosive we're not talking about Saints, Pats, Pack, or Lions sort of explosive.

The correct term would've been efficient or effective. I believe we'll see far less drives stalled out and a lot of those FGs turn into TDs this upcoming season and in terms of scoring. The funny thing is despite the mostly terrible stats on offense we were 11th in points and PTS/G which like defense are ultimately the only stats that matter. So if we can convert a few more of those FGs into TDs we could easily be top 10 in scoring.

 

[ViperVisor]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't improve we won't.

It starts but QB is really the finisher. A QB can't just make it so.

QB is the top of the pyramid. The other guys need to do work and then he can make the play a reality.

 

[Flyingiguana]

it starts with harbaugh. he needs a bit of a killer instinct instead of leaning on the d.

 

[NinerSickness]

he needs a bit of a killer instinct instead of leaning on the d.

Really? You're saying what Jim Harbaugh, of all people, needs to do? He doesn't have enough "killer instinct?"

 

[Bemular]

I'm sensing another Cam Newton comparison in the near future - Carolina had the #1 most explosive offense in the NFL last year. Meanwhile, we had the 22nd most explosive offense. (23rd passing/8th rushing)

 

[Bemular]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't - We'll be seeing what Kaepernick, Johnson or Tolzien can do.

Fixed

 

[MHSL82]

It all starts with the QB. If Alex keeps improving we might, if he doesn't - We'll be seeing what Kaepernick, Johnson or Tolzien can do.

Fixed

For the long term, yes, we'll see what they can do, but I think Clyde is right, if Alex doesn't improve, we won't. Harbaugh will pull him if necessary, but I see Harbaugh giving Smith a longer chance to show it and if he fails moderately, by the time Kaepernick, Johnson, or Tolzien come in, our offense will not improve for the season, even if those three play better than Smith. The only way for Clyde's comment to be wrong is if the QB does not improve the team by getting better himself, some other facet like defense negates Alex's improvement, or Alex fails immensely or is injured and the replacement comes in and immediately shines. The fact that Kaepernick is new, Johnson is unproven (most are), and Tolzien was undrafted then inactive last year, I don't expect a smooth transition. This season goes as Alex goes and if Alex fails, the silver lining would be experience and growth from his backup - but an unimproved offense. So I would leave Clyde's comment as is and maybe add what you said afterwards.

 

[Bemular]

For the long term, yes, we'll see what they can do, but I think Clyde is right, if Alex doesn't improve, we won't. Harbaugh will pull him if necessary, but I see Harbaugh giving Smith a longer chance to show it and if he fails moderately, by the time Kaepernick, Johnson, or Tolzien come in, our offense will not improve for the season, even if those three play better than Smith. The only way for Clyde's comment to be wrong is if the QB does not improve the team by getting better himself, some other facet like defense negates Alex's improvement, or Alex fails immensely or is injured and the replacement comes in and immediately shines. The fact that Kaepernick is new, Johnson is unproven (most are), and Tolzien was undrafted then inactive last year, I don't expect a smooth transition. This season goes as Alex goes and if Alex fails, the silver lining would be experience and growth from his backup - but an unimproved offense. So I would leave Clyde's comment as is and maybe add what you said afterwards.

I never said Clyde's comment was wrong; my addendum was tongue-in-cheek.

FWIW, this is precisely what is going to happen in 2012. Harbaugh & Roman will install an offense designed to improve our 3rd down conversions, improve our red-zone point production, control the clock while taking full advantage of our new additions.

As long as Smith can execute to these expectations and win - he remains our starter. The only way Harbaugh is going to accept having the ~29th ranked passing offense in 2012 is if it is accompanied by victories - and plenty of them.

Lastly, Alex Smith is currently our starting QB, he is NOT our franchise QB. Our entire FO from Jed down to the water boy understands clearly the window of opportunity currently open for us and I just don't see Harbaugh wasting it with a QB that is not getting it done unless the other QB's can't get it done any better.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm sensing another Cam Newton comparison in the near future - Carolina had the #1 most explosive offense in the NFL last year. Meanwhile, we had the 22nd most explosive offense. (23rd passing/8th rushing)

Out of curiosity, where are you finding numbers on that stuff? I tried a relatively quick search to find numbers on big plays, but didn't have much luck. ESPN used to have numbers on 20+ and 30+ yard carries for RBs, but I can't even seem to find that now.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Out of curiosity, where are you finding numbers on that stuff? I tried a relatively quick search to find numbers on big plays, but didn't have much luck. ESPN used to have numbers on 20+ and 30+ yard carries for RBs, but I can't even seem to find that now.

NFL.com has changed their stats around a little bit but you can still find 20+ and 40+ yard completions and rushes by each team in these two links. I can't find a compilation of both lists, though. The Washington Post used to have stats from Stats Inc. but that part of their site seems to be down right now.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

NFL Stats: by Team Category

 

[Crimsoncrew]

NFL.com has changed their stats around a little bit but you can still find 20+ and 40+ yard completions and rushes by each team in these two links. I can't find a compilation of both lists, though. The Washington Post used to have stats from Stats Inc. but that part of their site seems to be down right now.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

NFL Stats: by Team Category

Thanks Chris.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Kind of remarkable that we had six pass plays of 40+ yards in the regular season, and Davis had three in two playoff games (and two that were 35+). Hopefully that's a sign of things to come. Moss' addition should help, as should Manningham to an extent.

Btw, does anyone know if 20+ plays include 40+, or is 20+ really 20-39?

 

[Bemular]

Thanks Chris.

+1
I think ESPN still has the 20+ numbers as well on the team stat page

 

[Bemular]

Kind of remarkable that we had six pass plays of 40+ yards in the regular season, and Davis had three in two playoff games (and two that were 35+). Hopefully that's a sign of things to come. Moss' addition should help, as should Manningham to an extent.

Btw, does anyone know if 20+ plays include 40+, or is 20+ really 20-39?

The 40+ is included in the 20+

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Digesting some of these figures in bits here.

So 41 pass plays of 20+ for the team over the regular season, but in his last six games counting the playoffs, Davis had 10. It's unlikely Davis will maintain the pace of his final three games (averaged 137 yards over those), but bumping his average up from 49 YPG to say 65 YPG seems feasible as we open up the offense. Add in Moss and Manningham, and Crabtree and Williams playing better, and that should open things up a bit more for the run game. More Hunter and James also increases the chances of big plays.

Top-10 is feasible in terms of big plays, but I still think we'll be relatively conservative on offense, at least compared to the big passing attacks.

 

[Bemular]

Digesting some of these figures in bits here.

So 41 pass plays of 20+ for the team over the regular season, but in his last six games counting the playoffs, Davis had 10. It's unlikely Davis will maintain the pace of his final three games (averaged 137 yards over those), but bumping his average up from 49 YPG to say 65 YPG seems feasible as we open up the offense. Add in Moss and Manningham, and Crabtree and Williams playing better, and that should open things up a bit more for the run game. More Hunter and James also increases the chances of big plays.

Top-10 is feasible in terms of big plays, but I still think we'll be relatively conservative on offense, at least compared to the big passing attacks.

We certainly have enough depth and speed at RB/TE/WR to create some serious mismatches in 2012. So, if we can game-plan & execute to take advantage of those mismatches then I completely agree we can shoot up into the top ten for explosive pass plays in '12 - and easily into the top-ten overall. I think our YAC could be among the league leaders.

Here are the top 10 explosive pass play offenses (20+) for 2011

1-GB
2-NE
3-CAR
4-SD
5-NYG
6-OAK
7-PHI
7-NO
9-DET
10-PIT

 

[MHSL82]

I never said Clyde's comment was wrong; my addendum was tongue-in-cheek.

FWIW, this is precisely what is going to happen in 2012. Harbaugh & Roman will install an offense designed to improve our 3rd down conversions, improve our red-zone point production, control the clock while taking full advantage of our new additions.

As long as Smith can execute to these expectations and win - he remains our starter. The only way Harbaugh is going to accept having the ~29th ranked passing offense in 2012 is if it is accompanied by victories - and plenty of them.

Lastly, Alex Smith is currently our starting QB, he is NOT our franchise QB. Our entire FO from Jed down to the water boy understands clearly the window of opportunity currently open for us and I just don't see Harbaugh wasting it with a QB that is not getting it done unless the other QB's can't get it done any better.

I disagree with the bolded statement (the latter part of course). Right now, I will say my disagreement is with the "NOT" part. I would wait until mid-end season to state that he is not. I will wait until after the playoffs to state that he is. So, I am NOT saying that he IS our franchise QB, because what he did last year is just one step towards what I would say is "franchise." As good as it was last year, that ain't it. He needs a leap from last year to get there but I'm not going to count him out.

As for "our entire FO..." part - isn't that a bit obvious because if Alex does get it done (franchise) then we will seize the window of opportunity, if we win in spite of him (but adequate play) we will seize the window of opportunity, and if he fails, well duh, Harbaugh ain't stupid, despite what the media interprets his statements to be.

I feel some people say the "Alex is not our franchise QB" as an obligatory "I'm not crazy" statement. You know, to set themselves as reasonable football folk. Even I say he is NOT franchise based upon his last seven years (yes, including last year and the Saints game) but I don't feel the need to state it as a permanent football assessment. I'll gladly wait before I determine someone's ceiling and status with the team because I have no say over it. I feel that's more objective.

I saw Troy hit a ceiling because he failed IMO to show that he was willing to work as hard as it takes when he went back to Ohio for the bye week after playing only one game. Faxing the playbook is little compared to staying back to practice with a receiver. Alex has always seemed to be able to do it, I'm sure someone would have stayed behind for Troy. That made me eliminate him from being franchise, of course, coupled with on-field play. Alex has shown flashes (inconsistently) but also the hard work. We will now have the same offense, a great coach, and some better weapons. It is sink or swim for Alex, but I'm not going to call him dead in the water until I see him floating.

I don't think I've ever said the word "ain't" twice in one post (now three times).