Alex in 2013

[calsnowskier]

It is all but guarenteed that he will not be with SF next season. So will the Niners be able to trade him and get SOMETHING for him, or will they simply cut him and let him decide his own fate?

 

[Flyingiguana]

teams are gonna wait for him to be cut

 

[clyde_carbon]

teams are gonna wait for him to be cut

Exactly. He's owed 9mil next year if he's kept or traded, so teams will wait until we release him (which we will be forced to do unless he restructures, which he won't) and then sign him. He'll probably sign onto something like Matt Flynn's contract - 3 years, 19.5mil, 10mil guaranteed. Will probably be something like 5mil for the first year, 6mil for the 2nd year, and then 8mil for the last year.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I'd imagine Cleveland, New York (Jets), Jacksonville, or wherever Greg Roman lands would be natural landing spots for him.

 

[calsnowskier]

With a weak QB class in the draft and Smith likely the best QB on the market, wouldnt it be smart for some team to pay the premium to guarentee that they get him instead of rolling the dice and hope that they are able to out-bid the other teams for his services in an open market?

The Colts let Manning walk because they would have had to pay him (from memory) something like 20M if he was on the roster on a certain date. The Niners do not have that hard date to negotiate the way Indy did.

 

[jordan20_3]

I'd imagine Cleveland, New York (Jets), Jacksonville, or wherever Greg Roman lands would be natural landing spots for him.

Yes I would say Cleveland now also since that is were Norv has landed. It is safe to say that Norv will never be a head coach in the NFL ever again. But I doubt Alex will want to play against the Steeler, Ravens Bengals every year. Jacksonville in the south or Cheifs in the West are his best shots

 

[Jikkle]

teams are gonna wait for him to be cut

More then likely yes but there could be a team out there that doesn't want to take a chance and go ahead and trade for him.

I mean let's not forget the Vikings traded for McNabb and his contract when it was all but certain he was going to get cut and Smith is a lot better then McNabb was at that point.

 

[Flyingiguana]

More then likely yes but there could be a team out there that doesn't want to take a chance and go ahead and trade for him.

I mean let's not forget the Vikings traded for McNabb and his contract when it was all but certain he was going to get cut and Smith is a lot better then McNabb was at that point.

a team could get desperate, but imo teams will go after guys in the draft. there's nothing in free agency, so a team could get antsy, but i doubt it.

 

[clyde_carbon]

More then likely yes but there could be a team out there that doesn't want to take a chance and go ahead and trade for him.

I mean let's not forget the Vikings traded for McNabb and his contract when it was all but certain he was going to get cut and Smith is a lot better then McNabb was at that point.

No team will pay almost 10mil next year for a Harbaugh-less Alex Smith. Not gonna happen.

 

[MHSL82]

Reposting my thoughts because that's what this thread is about.

People said Roman and Smith to Cardinals.But now it might be to Jacksonville. Roman is rumored to the Jaguars because of his relationship with their new GM. The Jaguars play the Niners in London.

It might have been the Jets if Norv Turner had gone there, because they have Rex Ryan's defense on paper and Turner worked well with Smith before. But now that Turner went to the Browns, the Brown's an option for Smith, too. Jets are still a possibility but not likely per se.

Depending on who Kansas City drafts for QB this year, working under Andy Reid could be good for both sides for at least the first year and maybe more. They have 5 pro bowl players, though I don't know if they all deserve it per se.

Oakland is an option if Alex wants to stay in the area. This would be good for the Niners because it would be out of division, out of conference. Not that Alex scares them, but why not get him out and maybe get something? Don't know what Oakland has to trade, so probably just release and see what happens.

Philadelphia is an outside shot if they bring in Roman or want someone to limit turnovers. They have underachieved for their talent. Philadelphia is brutal for their criticisms for the QB.

Tennessee and Minnesota are set for next year as far as I can tell. They won't turn down a better QB than what they have, but they won't be going for Alex Smith. Same with Buffalo, but I'm not sure what they think of Fitzpatrick. A lot would see this as a lateral move, fewer TOs for Smith but also Fitz passed a lot.

He could also go be a backup virtually anywhere (not necessarily so, just don't want to go through all the options).

 

[MHSL82]

He'll be cut. The only instance where I could see a trade would be in Roman was HC and traded something for him - but an act of good faith isn't needed here. Just wait for him to be cut and then be the highest bidder would suffice to show trust in him. No need to pay him AND give up a draft pick.

 

[MHSL82]

Yes I would say Cleveland now also since that is were Norv has landed. It is safe to say that Norv will never be a head coach in the NFL ever again. But I doubt Alex will want to play against the Steeler, Ravens Bengals every year. Jacksonville in the south or Cheifs in the West are his best shots

I'd have to know more about Jacksonville to think that would be good, even with Roman. Not knowing about them results in:

I'd go with the Chiefs with Andy Reid. He could help and they have 5 pro bowl players - not sure if they deserve it, but they were at least in the conversation for it. The thing that would scare me if I were him would be the first pick the Chiefs have, but I suppose, if you can't beat the new guy out, it wasn't meant to be. Plus, I don't know who that guy would be, whether they'll trade the pick, or pick a different position.

The Jets are the next realistic opportunity. Not a good situation, but they have a good on paper defense. Removing some turnovers, they may have been a wildcard.

Arizona is next depending on the coach. The defense was good but I think they might have lost some edge because of the offensive struggles.

If he succeeded, the best place available would be in Philadelphia with Roman. But that's a long shot in all aspects. Long shot for Roman to be there. Long shot for them to also want Smith. And then, long shot for him to do well enough for that crowd - both because of his limitations and the impatience of Philly fans. Plus, we don't know who the rest of the guys are.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

My guess is that there will be enough leaguewide desperation for QBs, without much relief available in the draft (or so I've heard) that some team will step up and offer a pick to ensure they secure Smith's services, even at his current salary (two years left isn't too much of a hassle). I imagine some teams might rate Vick higher, but other than that Smith will probably be the best option on the market.

 

[erckm510]

Yeah I think Alex gets cut but maybe a team offers a 4th or 5th rounder. Would be well worth it for a QB starved team.

 

[wartyOne]

With a weak QB class in the draft and Smith likely the best QB on the market, wouldnt it be smart for some team to pay the premium to guarentee that they get him instead of rolling the dice and hope that they are able to out-bid the other teams for his services in an open market?

The Colts let Manning walk because they would have had to pay him (from memory) something like 20M if he was on the roster on a certain date. The Niners do not have that hard date to negotiate the way Indy did.

Is Smith half as valuable as Manning? My answer would be no. Not close.

 

[wartyOne]

Yes I would say Cleveland now also since that is were Norv has landed. It is safe to say that Norv will never be a head coach in the NFL ever again. But I doubt Alex will want to play against the Steeler, Ravens Bengals every year. Jacksonville in the south or Cheifs in the West are his best shots

Andy Reid is the new coach in KC. Smith won't start there.

 

[calsnowskier]

Is Smith half as valuable as Manning? My answer would be no. Not close.

Never said he was.

The Colts were facing a 28M roster bonus if Manning was still with the team on March 8. The Niners are facing no such single payment. Smith will make 9M in 2013 as a salary, not a bonus.

 

[wartyOne]

Never said he was.

The Colts were facing a 28M roster bonus if Manning was still with the team on March 8. The Niners are facing no such single payment. Smith will make 9M in 2013 as a salary, not a bonus.

He's owed that if he is on the roster before the draft. The 9ers won't have him on the roster when the draft happens. They're not going to eat that cap hit on a backup.

 

[yanksjets24]

Got a feeling he'll be a Jet next season.

 

[calsnowskier]

Smith has a 1M roster bonus due in March. If he is on the roster on April 1, the remaining 7.5M becomes guaranteed.

7.5M for a guy who has put up the numbers that Smith has over the last two years is not too much. They can deal that and still get a decent return. Sure he is not a "Super Bowl QB" but the teams we have talked about for him are not Super Bowl teams, so it will work out just fine.