Alex in 2013

[numone9er]

Jacksonville I can see. Not KC, though. Not with Reid.

You're probably right. He will get a chance to compete somewhere. I don't see anyone bringing him in as their top choice un;ess they feel extremely confident in their Defense.

 

[clyde_carbon]

who else is reid gonna get?

Geno Smith? Tyler Wilson? He does own the first overall pick.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Geno Smith? Tyler Wilson? He does own the first overall pick.

i'm thinking he might go with jarvis jones. geno smith was looking like a lock before west virginia got manhandled by any half decent team. tyler wilson could turn into the best of this class, but i dont see him going in the top 5.

 

[KingFlea]

What about Oakland?

 

[clyde_carbon]

i'm thinking he might go with jarvis jones. geno smith was looking like a lock before west virginia got manhandled by any half decent team. tyler wilson could turn into the best of this class, but i dont see him going in the top 5.

I don't think Jarvis Jones goes first overall. Really good prospect, but he's got spinal stenosis that could scare teams away. I think it'll be more likely he falls out of the top-10 than he goes first overall.

Tyler Wilson WILL be the best of this class, and will be a stud in the NFL. I think when it's all said and done (Senior Bowl, combine, pro days, etc.) I think people will be talking about Wilson as a top 5 or 10 pick.

I also really like Geno Smith in Reid's system. I think that's the route he'll take.

 

[TobyTyler]

It is all but guarenteed that he will not be with SF next season. So will the Niners be able to trade him and get SOMETHING for him, or will they simply cut him and let him decide his own fate?

Is that a serious question? Good god man, stick to baseball. Why would anyone trade for him when he is sure to be cut.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I don't think Jarvis Jones goes first overall. Really good prospect, but he's got spinal stenosis that could scare teams away. I think it'll be more likely he falls out of the top-10 than he goes first overall.

Tyler Wilson WILL be the best of this class, and will be a stud in the NFL. I think when it's all said and done (Senior Bowl, combine, pro days, etc.) I think people will be talking about Wilson as a top 5 or 10 pick.

I also really like Geno Smith in Reid's system. I think that's the route he'll take.

i have a feeling reid is gonna want to go with an experienced starter for quicker results. but i think geno smith would be a good spot, just a gut feeling that it won't be qb at #1. or at least not kc at #1.

 

[MHSL82]

KNBR said that there was a source saying Alex could get a 1st or a 2nd. But no way is that true. First, it's not. Second, teams really can't and don't need to say anything, especially when some don't have their GM/HC yet. The person cited that 8 million would be low for a starter, but I don't know if these teams would take him as a starter or to compete for one (obviously if they traded yes, but if they could wait, no and why not wait?)

I wonder if the Niners will wait until April 1 to cut him, that would set him and the other team back, especially if that may be the Cardinals. If they are going to cut him, they save an extra million to do it soon rather than on April 1st. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if they initially act like they are going to keep him either on a iron sharpens iron theory, Kaep + Smith's salaries are not that much combined for the position, and Alex is a loyal guy who would be great as a backup because he knows our system and has some talent. I think I could see Harbaugh scoff at the idea that he "must" cut Smith. But at the end of the day, I fully expect them to.

I think it'll turn out like Bem said before that they will give Smith permission to go seek a trade partner or take a paycut. Then, either of those two will happen or he's cut.

I wonder if Smith will want to wait until after the draft to make his decision, because while he knows he'll need to earn and keep his job, he won't want to go somewhere where it's obvious. The writing was on the wall here but I think he bought in, I don't know if that'll be the case outside of here. Not that he necessarily has a choice, but it's possible. He might find a place he likes and take it relatively quickly.

 

[Bracus]

Is that a serious question? Good god man, stick to baseball. Why would anyone trade for him when he is sure to be cut.

A team like Cleveland could trade for him since that is usually the last persons chosen destination. Given the choice between Cleveland and every other team that needs a QB, he'd probably take any other before Cleveland. If they trade for him, he doesn't really have a choice but to play there. Don't know why you're acting like it's a bad question, it isn't.

 

[deep9er]

KNBR said that there was a source saying Alex could get a 1st or a 2nd. But no way is that true. First, it's not. Second, teams really can't and don't need to say anything, especially when some don't have their GM/HC yet. The person cited that 8 million would be low for a starter, but I don't know if these teams would take him as a starter or to compete for one (obviously if they traded yes, but if they could wait, no and why not wait?)

I wonder if the Niners will wait until April 1 to cut him, that would set him and the other team back, especially if that may be the Cardinals. If they are going to cut him, they save an extra million to do it soon rather than on April 1st. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if they initially act like they are going to keep him either on a iron sharpens iron theory, Kaep + Smith's salaries are not that much combined for the position, and Alex is a loyal guy who would be great as a backup because he knows our system and has some talent. I think I could see Harbaugh scoff at the idea that he "must" cut Smith. But at the end of the day, I fully expect them to.

I think it'll turn out like Bem said before that they will give Smith permission to go seek a trade partner or take a paycut. Then, either of those two will happen or he's cut.

I wonder if Smith will want to wait until after the draft to make his decision, because while he knows he'll need to earn and keep his job, he won't want to go somewhere where it's obvious. The writing was on the wall here but I think he bought in, I don't know if that'll be the case outside of here. Not that he necessarily has a choice, but it's possible. He might find a place he likes and take it relatively quickly.

if we look to next season, don't think they'll have Kap play out his current contract? a new deal may have to wait till they settle Alex's situation, but they'll give Kap a raise.

next season is his third and don't they normally sign four year deals now?

 

[calsnowskier]

A team like Cleveland could trade for him since that is usually the last persons chosen destination. Given the choice between Cleveland and every other team that needs a QB, he'd probably take any other before Cleveland. If they trade for him, he doesn't really have a choice but to play there. Don't know why you're acting like it's a bad question, it isn't.

It was an attack on me, not the question...

 

[Kinzu]

If a team wants Alex it would be in their best interest to trade for him and it would be in the 49ers best interest to take what they can get. Why would you not want to offer up a 3rd or 4th round pick for a starting QB at about 8 million a year for the next 2 years. Oh and not to mention if he does not work out for you then it only cost around 1 million to cut him after the season.

I'm pretty sure Alex contract next years is about the same as it was this year. It was a pretty lousy deal for him that allowed the 49ers to cut him after either season.

Why wait for him to be cut? There is no way he signs a starters contract like that again. The only way you wait for him to be cut is if you only want him as a backup, and if that is his market I expect him to come back to the 49ers on a cheaper contract. I doubt Alex leaves the team to play backup QB else where.

 

[calsnowskier]

If a team wants Alex it would be in their best interest to trade for him and it would be in the 49ers best interest to take what they can get. Why would you not want to offer up a 3rd or 4th round pick for a starting QB at about 8 million a year for the next 2 years. Oh and not to mention if he does not work out for you then it only cost around 1 million to cut him after the season.

I'm pretty sure Alex contract next years is about the same as it was this year. It was a pretty lousy deal for him that allowed the 49ers to cut him after either season.

Why wait for him to be cut? There is no way he signs a starters contract like that again. The only way you wait for him to be cut is if you only want him as a backup, and if that is his market I expect him to come back to the 49ers on a cheaper contract. I doubt Alex leaves the team to play backup QB else where.

I do not think he will be back as a backup. If you look at BU jobs, I could see San Diego as a possibility. He grew up here. Maybe Miami as well. He went to HS with Reggie Bush and they are supposedly decent friends.

 

[MHSL82]

Could some post or PM me this article? I have a subscription to ESPN the Magazine, but the thing is not activating correctly. Thanks in advance for any help.

Five trade fits for San Francisco 49ers' Alex Smith

 

[1911Alaska]

Could some post or PM me this article? I have a subscription to ESPN the Magazine, but the thing is not activating correctly. Thanks in advance for any help.

Five trade fits for San Francisco 49ers' Alex Smith

In the spirit of International Myth-Shattering Week here in sports, let's look at another myth which might have flown just a tad below the intrigue threshold of some other storylines. Since Oprah was double-booked, consider it a public service.
Myth: The 49ers and head coach Jim Harbaugh made the move to start Colin Kaepernickover Alex Smith purely based on the merits of performance. They knew Kaepernick was the future and could do things Smith wasn't capable of, and they made a gutsy move because,as I wrote at the time, Harbaugh had earned the right to go with his gut.
Reality: A lot of it was about money.
The move to start Kaepernick now looks like a typical master-stroke from Harbaugh, but at the time, it was a perfect situation of a personnel move dictated by a trio of factors:
1. Smith was coming off a concussion, so it was easy to justify as a move sensitive to a hot-button medical debate in the NFL.
2. The 49ers at the time were 6-2-1, and had a little first-place cushion to test-drive CK for a week.
3. If the 49ers could learn whether CK was truly the starter-of-the-future, it could save them a bunch of cash. As I also noted at the time, if Smith was on the Niners' roster in 2013, he'd be there at a cap hit of $10 million.
For 2013 and 2014 combined, Kaepernick represents a cap hit of a $2.8 million. The reality is the 49ers didn't just start Kaepernick for what we now know is the potential to be the latest team with a frightening dual-threat QB. It was also because if he was even 80 cents on the dollar of the performance they could have gotten from Smith, they'd still be a really good football team with the knowledge that their young starter would almost surely get better, and also one more flexible to help itself elsewhere. Now, they have a great young starter who represents a two-year cost of what Mark Sanchez will make in about four weeks next season.
It also means Smith could be cut, but more likely, will be pushed in a trade. And it's actually a good time to trade him.
We can call Alex Smith just another Jim Harbaugh creation, but he might be a valuable one, because at the time he was benched he was playing the best football of his life. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 104.8 which, had it been sustained, would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Passer rating doesn't paint nearly a complete picture (ask the new breed of read-zone utilized by QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III), but Smith's 2012 QBR ranked seventh and is the best of his career by a mile. He was making better decisions than he ever has, throwing TD passes at a higher rate than he ever has, and driving the ball down the field more often and successfully than he ever has. He helped guide the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season (exactly where CK has them this season) and was mere bad fumble luck from starting a Super Bowl.
The 49ers didn't just try out CK because of all the things noted above, they also did it because they knew the guy who could step back in was playing well enough to take them far himself.
It should create interest in a number of teams. Here's how I'd rank them in terms of how much they should consider Smith:
1. Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly's scheme has had us speculating on a number of possible targets to start for Philly at quarterback. While Mike Vick seems well-suited to be brought back, it could come at a steep cost to Philly if he returns. That's because A) he'll be an unrestricted free agent if the Eagles cut him (which is likely because of his huge cap number); B) he has already seen his career rise and fall in Philly, and C) there's need at QB in a number of places.
Smith, meanwhile, would not find a lot of things Kelly has done at the college level difficult to learn and execute. After all, he played college football at Utah under Urban Meyer and was asked to make run readsand take off regularly. As a junior, he ran for 631 yards and 10 TDs for Meyer, and his running ability and overall athleticism were major draws when he was taken No. 1 overall in 2004. He's a throwing upgrade over the still-developing Nick Foles, and probably a durability upgrade over Vick. Kelly and the Eagles brass should kick the tires on what it would take to get him.
2. Cleveland Browns: The Browns have a new owner in Jimmy Haslam and a new VP of player personnel in Mike Lombardi, and Haslam has made it abundantly clear that quarterback is a priority for the organization going forward. And Norv Turner, the new offensive coordinator, has a relationship with Smith. Well, Cleveland already has a "young" QB in Brandon Weeden, you could argue. Except that not only is Weeden actually a half-year older than Smith, his performance in 2012 -- while not bad at all for a rookie, historically -- doesn't make him immune to legitimate competition for the starting job in 2013. For that reason, and because Weeden is locked in at a very reasonable cap rate of $2.2 and $2.5 million for 2013 and 2014, adding another QB without dumping Weeden can be considered a reasonable option on the books.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: You could argue they already have two quarterbacks to duel it out in Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, and both are owed money in 2013. If each remains on the roster, however, the combined cap hit is only $7.4 million. That's not a miniscule total, but if the Jags truly want to upgrade expectations at QB, Smith has shown a higher ceiling than either of them to this point. Were he acquired, either of those two could be offered up in trades that could recoup at least some draft-pick compensation to off-set what they gave to get Smith. Do they really want to head into 2013 with the Gabbert-Henne battle as the camp headline?
4. Kansas City Chiefs: If Andy Reid is known for one thing, it's that he can succeed with his passing attack if he can assure some level of competency. The current quarterback situation in Kansas City is simply bad, and the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 doesn't offer the opportunity to draft a QB the Chiefs can assume will be ready to give them a certain upgrade at the position. In fact, they are probably better off drafting on the offensive or defensive line, spots in which the draft is extremely good at the top, and speculating on a QB in Rounds 2 or 3.
Or they could use a couple of picks to land Smith, and immediately be pegged as one of the turnaround favorites for 2013. The Chiefs simply aren't the disaster in personnel that their record indicated -- consider how well they ran the ball in 2012 even without any expectations at QB -- but they need an upgrade. Smith would be one.
5. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals should be ready to accept Kevin Kolb as a sunk cost and mitigate the terrifying cap hits he represents in 2013 and beyond if he remains on the roster. He's far too great a financial bet for them to maintain on the roster. The Arizona offense could also make great strides in 2013 if it can nail down a consistent quarterback. Tackles Nate Potter and Bobby Massie were bad early (particularly Massie, who really needed more time to develop) but showed marked improvement in the final quarter of the 2012 season. Another addition along that line could mean a far higher level of expectations for the offense in 2013. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton have shown flashes, but each lacks a level of consistent accuracy that coaches need. It stands to reason the 49ers might not be thrilled about shipping a QB they developed to a division rival, but all options should be on the table for the Cardinals, who have ranked 31st, 28th and 32nd in the NFL in passing DVOA going back to 2010. Ugly.
Wild-card: Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker is the future, except that he's played for the most part like the quarterback with major accuracy questions the Titans drafted out of Washington in 2011. In a make-or-break year for the coaching staff, all options could be on the table.
Why not the New York Jets?
Sure, the Jets seem like a logical destination for a QB upgrade. That's before you look at the books, however. Unless they can extricate themselves of Mark Sanchez (and the phone isn't ringing), Smith and Sanchez would combine for a cap hit of over $20 million in 2013, more than Peyton Manning.
Alex Smith is no guarantee. He was leading maybe the best-assembled overall roster in the NFL, a team that could defend and run the ball effectively, alleviating the pressure on whoever takes the snaps for Jim Harbaugh. But even if he's considered a Harbaugh creation, he's one the Niners will be looking to move. And the teams above could have interest.

 

[MHSL82]

Thanks, Brendon!

 

[tomikcon1971]

if we look to next season, don't think they'll have Kap play out his current contract? a new deal may have to wait till they settle Alex's situation, but they'll give Kap a raise.

next season is his third and don't they normally sign four year deals now?

I think under new CBA you can't renegotiate rookie deals unti after year 3 but we'll need one of the board experts to verify.

 

[Badger8843]

We need to trade him for a draft pick, the highest offer wins

 

[1911Alaska]

We need to trade him for a draft pick, the highest offer wins

or a kicker

 

[wartyOne]

or a kicker

Awesome. We trade the guy who was picked first overall in 05 for an undrafted soccer player. That would be a slap in the face for Alex.

:laser: