AL Central Discussion

[navamind]

Torkelson is now tied for 5th in the league in Home Runs since June. He is starting to figure it out.

Hitting .240/.320/.517 since the beginning of June. .267/.348/.564 since the beginning of July.

His Statcast metrics are even more encouraging. His actual BA (.239) is well under his xBA (.261), he's underperforming his xSLG by 43 points (.452 versus .495), and he has an xwOBA of .359 (current wOBA is .331). He's also in the 93rd percentile in Exit Velocity and 94th in HardHit%.

Spencer Torkelson Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics

(2024) Avg Exit Velocity: 89.2, Hard Hit %: 40.7, wOBA: .293, xwOBA: .281, Barrel %: 6.9.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

He's overcome a rough start and should finish with a solid season. I think he's broken out

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Hitting .240/.320/.517 since the beginning of June. .267/.348/.564 since the beginning of July.

His Statcast metrics are even more encouraging. His actual BA (.239) is well under his xBA (.261), he's underperforming his xSLG by 43 points (.452 versus .495), and he has an xwOBA of .359 (current wOBA is .331). He's also in the 93rd percentile in Exit Velocity and 94th in HardHit%.

Spencer Torkelson Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics

(2024) Avg Exit Velocity: 89.2, Hard Hit %: 40.7, wOBA: .293, xwOBA: .281, Barrel %: 6.9.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

He's overcome a rough start and should finish with a solid season. I think he's broken out

it's definitely looking encouraging to build a lineup around him Carpenter and Greene.

They just need guys who aren't the absolute worst in the league at plate at their respective positions in the other 5 spots

(I will grant Rogers some leeway lol)

 

[mr.hockey4242]

it's definitely looking encouraging to build a lineup around him Carpenter and Greene.

They just need guys who aren't the absolute worst in the league at plate at their respective positions in the other 5 spots

(I will grant Rogers some leeway lol)

They have to just eat the Baez money and release him

 

[Stakesarehigh]

They have to just eat the Baez money and release him

it would be amazing if he opted out lol

 

[Stakesarehigh]

the crazy thing is that because of his glove he's still not a total dumpster fire for WAR. but his hitting is atrocious

 

[mr.hockey4242]

On the topic of options. Twins are going to have very interesting team options of veteran guys.

While Polanco has had the more consistent career of the two. I think hes almost certainly going to be left to move on. Even if Lewis moves to the OF I dont think it will be full time and Polancos D just isnt good at 3B to warrant it. Julien and Lewis being up here already. Plus Lee coming very soon and potential AAA guys performing well in Prato and Severino theres just no chance he comes back I think. Hell even Jose Miranda is basically phased out.

Kepler is the one though where there will be a lot of thought. Hes wildly inconsistent since his 2019 season he was basically horrendous through the 1st half of this year. Now hes hot again. His D isnt quite as good as peak Kepler but hes still very very good. His team option is only 10 mil. Thats a bargain for a .775 OPS and defensive Kepler(full season stats to date), its highway robbery for second half .900 OPS Kepler. Its not worth it at all for first half/last couple seasons sub .700 OPS Kepler.

Having said that the only lock for the OF is Wallner. I think unless a trade for a pitcher presents itself they really want Larnach to get another shot. So it is still the lefty log jam(with Kirilloff as mainly 1B with some corner OF) but there isnt nearly as much youth being blocked in the OF. Theres also kinda the case of what the Buxton plan even is.

But Keplers option of 10 mil used to look like a clear cut decline assuming he wasnt DFA'd this year, and now its looking like something that almost has to be picked up. And Hell, maybe could even just give trade value.

 

[WiggyRuss]

On the topic of options. Twins are going to have very interesting team options of veteran guys.

While Polanco has had the more consistent career of the two. I think hes almost certainly going to be left to move on. Even if Lewis moves to the OF I dont think it will be full time and Polancos D just isnt good at 3B to warrant it. Julien and Lewis being up here already. Plus Lee coming very soon and potential AAA guys performing well in Prato and Severino theres just no chance he comes back I think. Hell even Jose Miranda is basically phased out.

Kepler is the one though where there will be a lot of thought. Hes wildly inconsistent since his 2019 season he was basically horrendous through the 1st half of this year. Now hes hot again. His D isnt quite as good as peak Kepler but hes still very very good. His team option is only 10 mil. Thats a bargain for a .775 OPS and defensive Kepler(full season stats to date), its highway robbery for second half .900 OPS Kepler. Its not worth it at all for first half/last couple seasons sub .700 OPS Kepler.

Having said that the only lock for the OF is Wallner. I think unless a trade for a pitcher presents itself they really want Larnach to get another shot. So it is still the lefty log jam(with Kirilloff as mainly 1B with some corner OF) but there isnt nearly as much youth being blocked in the OF. Theres also kinda the case of what the Buxton plan even is.

But Keplers option of 10 mil used to look like a clear cut decline assuming he wasnt DFA'd this year, and now its looking like something that almost has to be picked up. And Hell, maybe could even just give trade value.

Lay out what your expected depth chart is for next year not counting free agency or trades. For Guardians I would say:

Rotation:
Bieber
McKenzie
Williams
Bibee
Allen, Quintrell, Curry, Cantillo, maybe Espino

C. Naylor, Haas
1B. Manzardo
2B. Gimenez/Freeman
3B. Ramirez
SS. Rocchio/Arias
OF. Kwan
OF. Straw
OF. Gonzalez, Valera
DH. Naylor

RP. Clase, Stephen, Hentges, Sandlin, Karinchak, De Los Santos etc.

 

[WiggyRuss]

On the topic of options. Twins are going to have very interesting team options of veteran guys.

While Polanco has had the more consistent career of the two. I think hes almost certainly going to be left to move on. Even if Lewis moves to the OF I dont think it will be full time and Polancos D just isnt good at 3B to warrant it. Julien and Lewis being up here already. Plus Lee coming very soon and potential AAA guys performing well in Prato and Severino theres just no chance he comes back I think. Hell even Jose Miranda is basically phased out.

Kepler is the one though where there will be a lot of thought. Hes wildly inconsistent since his 2019 season he was basically horrendous through the 1st half of this year. Now hes hot again. His D isnt quite as good as peak Kepler but hes still very very good. His team option is only 10 mil. Thats a bargain for a .775 OPS and defensive Kepler(full season stats to date), its highway robbery for second half .900 OPS Kepler. Its not worth it at all for first half/last couple seasons sub .700 OPS Kepler.

Having said that the only lock for the OF is Wallner. I think unless a trade for a pitcher presents itself they really want Larnach to get another shot. So it is still the lefty log jam(with Kirilloff as mainly 1B with some corner OF) but there isnt nearly as much youth being blocked in the OF. Theres also kinda the case of what the Buxton plan even is.

But Keplers option of 10 mil used to look like a clear cut decline assuming he wasnt DFA'd this year, and now its looking like something that almost has to be picked up. And Hell, maybe could even just give trade value.

letting go of Polanco, and Kepler could open up some $ for a pitcher.

 

[WiggyRuss]

the crazy thing is that because of his glove he's still not a total dumpster fire for WAR. but his hitting is atrocious

I wouldnt drop Baez- like you said- he can still field extremely well.

Overall last year his hitting line was not good- but he was not bad down the stretch. I had to pick him up in an emergecny in a fantasy league and he was actually not bad down the stretch the last month or two if I remember correctly.

Hes not worth 25 mill a year obviously- but hes not worthless.

 

[WiggyRuss]

the crazy thing is that because of his glove he's still not a total dumpster fire for WAR. but his hitting is atrocious

4 guys basically set in stone in the lineup---- Torkelson, Greene, Carpenter and Baez.....theres worse places to start.

Once again though- the Guardians will have a couple initial advantages despite having a lower payroll than the Twins, Tigers and Royals.

1. Well- maybe Luis Roberts is the best player in the Central now- but for my money I would still take Jose Ramirez- who is at worst 2nd in the division.

2. Guardians will have the best overall pitching staff in the division again next year. With all the injuries they are 3rd in the majors in team ERA. They just know how to develop and manage pitching.

3. Terry Francona (unless he retires).

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Lay out what your expected depth chart is for next year not counting free agency or trades. For Guardians I would say:

Rotation:
Bieber
McKenzie
Williams
Bibee
Allen, Quintrell, Curry, Cantillo, maybe Espino

C. Naylor, Haas
1B. Manzardo
2B. Gimenez/Freeman
3B. Ramirez
SS. Rocchio/Arias
OF. Kwan
OF. Straw
OF. Gonzalez, Valera
DH. Naylor

RP. Clase, Stephen, Hentges, Sandlin, Karinchak, De Los Santos etc.

Rotation
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
Paddock
-There will be at least 1 addition who? No idea. Varland and another addition as potential canidates too for depth especially with Paddock off injury.

C- Jeffers/Vazquez(sadly)
1B-AK
2B- Julien
SS-Correa
3B- Lewis
LF- Wallner
CF- Taylor
RF- Kepler
DH- Buxton

Bench: Already mentioned Vazquz, Castro, Farmer, Larnach.

Bullpen: Duran, Jax, Pagan, Thielbar(assuming he doesnt decide to retire), Stewart.

Actually its really tough to know for certain because this team has so many locks with versatility and also have to clearly add to rotation and pen.

Farmer signed a two year D so unfortunately I doubt we eat that. Do we bring back a mid 30s Solano? Castro as a bench weapon is back. But Lee will be up really soon and Royce moves to OF at that point. Martin will be up soon as a bench utility guy. Prato and Severino who I mentioned.

So my best guess is the above. Go with the strategy of the youth who broke through this year are locks to start. Keep the versatile vets on the bench to start the year. Then do exactly what we did this year, when injuries ineveitably come the next crop of youth mentioned above come up the same was Julien/Wallner/Lewis/Ak did and they start taking over from the remaining who are easier to dispose of as the year goes on.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Rotation
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
Paddock
-There will be at least 1 addition who? No idea. Varland and another addition as potential canidates too for depth especially with Paddock off injury.

C- Jeffers/Vazquez(sadly)
1B-AK
2B- Julien
SS-Correa
3B- Lewis
LF- Wallner
CF- Taylor
RF- Kepler
DH- Buxton

Bench: Already mentioned Vazquz, Castro, Farmer, Larnach.

Bullpen: Duran, Jax, Pagan, Thielbar(assuming he doesnt decide to retire), Stewart.

Actually its really tough to know for certain because this team has so many locks with versatility and also have to clearly add to rotation and pen.

Farmer signed a two year D so unfortunately I doubt we eat that. Do we bring back a mid 30s Solano? Castro as a bench weapon is back. But Lee will be up really soon and Royce moves to OF at that point. Martin will be up soon as a bench utility guy. Prato and Severino who I mentioned.

So my best guess is the above. Go with the strategy of the youth who broke through this year are locks to start. Keep the versatile vets on the bench to start the year. Then do exactly what we did this year, when injuries ineveitably come the next crop of youth mentioned above come up the same was Julien/Wallner/Lewis/Ak did and they start taking over from the remaining who are easier to dispose of as the year goes on.

trade and free agency will be interesting.

Looks like you think Kepler is brought back. Obviously the Twins will have to do something with the rotation and bullpen but not a whole lot needs to be done position player wise. The Twins have upside in the lineup if Buxton and Correa ever get healthy and rolling- but health and playing well together seems to be something that will be tough. Seems Buxton cant even stay healthy just DH'ng which is nuts.

Guardians will be interesting- everything is pretty much set beside RF and 1B and maybe CF. That team I had up there is incredibly inexpensive. Guardians dont spend a lot of money but what they have committed is just so small. The only guys that are making more than league min. are Bieber (arbitration I would guess at 12-15M), Clase 3M, Straw 4M, Ramirez 17M and Stephen 2M, Quintrell (arbitration guess 8M), McKenzie 1st year arb - say 3-4M, Naylor 5-6 through Arb- for a combined 50 million or so - a couple arbitration eligible relievers - but their whole team is definitely less than 60 million right now

Even if they just stay at the same payroll as last year they should have enough to sign a decent 1B/OF/DH type- hopefully better than Bell was.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Guardian estimated salaries next year:

1. Ramirez- 17M
2. Bieber- 14M
3. Quintrell- 7M
4. Naylor- 6M
5. Gimenez- 6M
6. Straw- 4M
7. McKenzie- 4M
8. Clase- 3M
9. Stephen- 1.5M
10. Sandlin/Hentges/De Los Santos/Karinchak- 8M-10M combined I would say if they keep them all.

that is 70M.......

after that all league min. Naylor, Rocchio, Williams, Allen, Bibee, Curry, Brennan, Arias, Freeman, Fry. etc......Guardians are at 90M this year. I think they will increase a little- lets say 95-100- which still puts them in the bottom 8 or so.....they should have 25-30M to play with I think.

I would just sign a bat that is an OF/DH type.....and maybe a veteran reliever. That is about it. If Bieber or Quintrell are dealt they will have even more flexibility.

 

[WiggyRuss]

honestly- wouldnt mind bringing back Calhoun or Laureano- one of them would be fine as a bench type guy- as long as they do get one big bat- doesnt have to be huge either- just solid.

It comes down to Naylor, Rocchio, Kwan, Gimenez, Manzardo, Freeman, Valera and how they develop. Valera will be up next year I would think- will be interesting to see if he can be anything.

Just a 1B/OF/DH type.

maybe a guy like a Turner, Teoscar, Hoskins (if he is eventually able to be healthy), maybe try and rehabilitate Winker for cheaper...Gurriel, Cron.

or spend some prospects on a trade- like a Mullins, Meneses, Reynolds.....

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Seriously, Rocco Baldelli needs to fucking just drop dead.

This guy is such a fucking idiot.

Ober 2 hits allowed(control early was his issue). EIGHT in a row retired. And he pulls him after 5 and 70 pitches to go to fucking Floro. We have 4 relievers you can trust. Hes not one of them. And we have no off days for over a week.

Inexcusable. And Falvey can fucking die too since he only traded for Floro at the deadline.

6 fucking hits. Fucking cowards.

 

[Jordan23]

Seriously, Rocco Baldelli needs to fucking just drop dead.

This guy is such a fucking idiot.

Ober 2 hits allowed(control early was his issue). EIGHT in a row retired. And he pulls him after 5 and 70 pitches to go to fucking Floro. We have 4 relievers you can trust. Hes not one of them. And we have no off days for over a week.

Inexcusable. And Falvey can fucking die too since he only traded for Floro at the deadline.

6 fucking hits. Fucking cowards.

I was just gonna ask wtf happened and why ober came out of the game with only 78 pitches and then they go and hammer away on us. Why Rocco?

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I was just gonna ask wtf happened and why ober came out of the game with only 78 pitches and then they go and hammer away on us. Why Rocco?

Its why this team is screwed even if they make October. It doesnt matter about talent.

Pablo Lopez will have a gem going and get pulled for no reason and we will lose anyways.

Favley and Rocco simply are not cut out for their jobs.

 

[broncosmitty]

Parker Meadows looking very impressive two games in.

He and Greene could make for a great defensive outfield.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

These umps are so fucking stupid too.

We lost this game on our own. But this stupid ass home plate ump keeps calling low balls as strikes vs us. And letting the Brewers draw walks on the same pitch.

Julien just took strike 2 which was a blatant ball then struck out next pitch cause 3B ump said he swung and barely hit the front part of the plate.

That shit is getting annoying too

 

[WiggyRuss]

sounds like Francona is gonna retire at the end of the season.