Advanced Stats on Denver, NE, SF and Seattle

[Clayton]

There are a few interesting matchups to be had in the Conference Championship games.

The Denver Broncos have the best pass blocking oline in the NFL in terms of giving up sacks while the New England Patriots are 8th in the league in generating sacks with their defensive line. While this is strength vs strength, its still a notable advantage for the Broncos.

The Denver Broncos oline is 8th in the league in run blocking while the Patriots are 30th in the league at defending the run (most likely due to the Wilfork injury). This is a colossal advantage for the Broncos.

The Patriots, meanwhile, will be attacking Denver with the best run blocking oline in the NFL while the Denver Broncos defensive line is surprisingly 3rd in the league against the run. The Patriots might be able to run the ball but its not the decisive advantage that it was against the Colts who were ranked 28th in this category.

The Patriots have the 9th best pass blocking oline in the NFL in terms of giving up sacks while the Broncos dline is 21st in getting to the QB (most likely due to Von Miller being gone). Tom Brady should have all day to throw against the Broncos.


Bottom line: So while Peyton vs Brady is going to be the headliner, its really going to be Moreno vs Brady in terms of actually deciding the winner unless there is some costly turnovers involved.



Meanwhile in the NFC, you aren't going to be seeing the same level of QB play. You're going to see QBs holding on to the ball to make big plays but you are also going to see QBs holding on to the ball and taking sacks.

Seattle's oline is the worst in the league at protecting Wilson from getting sacked. Part of this is due to injuries, though, and they might be playing at a higher level now. The same could be said about the Niners ability to generate a pass rush which was only 29th over the course of the year. The fact that really one of the only weaknesses on the Hawks probably isn't going to be exploited by the Niners is a huge reason why the Seahawks match up so well with them.

Seattle's oline is 9th in the league when it comes to running the ball. A curious part of this stat is that they are the worst run blocking oline in short yardage situations. Beastmode just makes people miss so it seems even better than that. The Niners are 22nd in the league at stopping the run with their dline so the Seahawks are going to be able to use the run to move the ball. The Niners are 18th in short yardage situations, however, which means that they should have an advantage in 3rd and 1 and 4th and goal type situations which might be obvious at this point. The Niners also aren't going to be giving up long runs because they have notable advantages in the 2nd level and Open Field categories. A Beastquake is unlikely.

The Niners oline is 22nd in the league at protecting Kap from getting sacked while the Seahawks are 7th in the league with their pass rush. This is going to be a nightmare for Kaepernick if you factor in how good Seattle's secondary is.

The Niners oline is only 29th in the league in run blocking. This seems low, right? Well, they are 15th in 2nd level and 5th in Open Field categories. This means that they get big plays through their running game. Seattle in 13th at stopping the run so that is generally going to be a big advantage for them. The Niners oline isn't good at the 3rd and short type of plays but the Seahawks aren't particularly good at stopping teams on those type of plays, either.


Bottom line: Seattle is going to be controlling the game but kicking (and making) a lot of field goals. The Niners will have an advantage in big plays, however, and can easily win this battle if it is a low scoring affair. Seattle's best chance to win is to make Kaepernick throw dumb interceptions in which case the game will get out of hand


(All stats are from Football Outsiders and are based on regular season play from this year)

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Interesting. They make SF's defense seem like they are a bottom feeder when in fact they are very good.

I guess that is why they play the games.

 

[Clayton]

Interesting. They make SF's defense seem like they are a bottom feeder when in fact they are very good.

I guess that is why they play the games.

Its just factoring in the defensive lines. The Niners have the best linebackers in the league which is why they don't give up big plays and why they can lock teams down in short yardage

The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league so everything they do is predicated on that

 

[Podunkparte]

Having been to the last 2 SF/Seattle games in Seattle, I'm of the belief that you can put a lot of these on the backburner. When these 2 teams get together in Seattle it's a war. Every player is going to be playing with nothing to lose.

Kaep often looks good... until he steps into the Clink. Hell, they even made a commercial based on it. I just don't think there's a blueprint for how this game is going to be played. It'll just be a battle

 

[Clayton]

When these 2 teams get together in Seattle it's a war.

If by war, you mean massacre, then I agree.

Seattle has advantages everywhere but they usually leave opportunities on the field against most opponents. Against the Niners at home, they usually don't. I'm not sure if its because they play with increased urgency or its just a small sample size

 

[RegentDenali]

Once again, the Seattle pass rush will treat Kaep like a blowup doll and if he throws, it's usually to his #1 WR whenever he visits Seattle, Richard Sherman.

While no doubt Kaep is a physical specimen, his football IQ is lower than RWs. Craperdick gets rattled easy in Seattle and turns into a deer in headlights. It will be the same this Sunday.

Final score Seahawks 24 - SF 13. If Harvin has a big game, add another 7 - 10 points to that Seahawk score total.

 

[TDs3nOut]

The Denver Broncos have the best pass blocking oline in the NFL in terms of giving up sacks

I love stats, but it's pretty well understood by many just how misleading stats can be. For example, if Denver had a QB other than PFM, I don't think that many folks would say that Denver has the best pass blocking OL in the NFL, particularly in the absence of all-pro LT Ryan Clady.

 

[Clayton]

I love stats, but it's pretty well understood by many just how misleading stats can be. For example, if Denver had a QB other than PFM, I don't think that many folks would say that Denver has the best pass blocking OL in the NFL, particularly in the absence of all-pro LT Ryan Clady.

Its misleading in terms of talent evaluation but fully relevant because teams aren't going to be blitzing Peyton. So yeah, Peyton and Brady should absolutely get credit for how well their oline looks but its a reality that the defenses are going to have to deal with.

 

[HammerDown]

Once again, the Seattle pass rush will treat Kaep like a blowup doll and if he throws, it's usually to his #1 WR whenever he visits Seattle, Richard Sherman.

Get the ball out of Kaerpernick's hands and into Gore's as early and as often as possible or go home. He'll lose that game in a blink for them.

 

[gowazzu02]

Wow, thanks to the op for doing all the leg work. Great read.

Im so jacked.... Nervous.... anxious......

 

[NEhomer]

A review of the 2007 season stats between the 16-0 Pats and the 9-7 Giants should point out the worthlessness of stats in determining the SB winner.

 

[Uhsplit]

I stole this data from HawkBlogger:
Myths.
Just The Facts: Seahawks vs 49ers

There is going to be no shortage of bull piped over every air wave this week about the upcoming title bout between the two best teams in football, Seattle and San Francisco. Not here. At least not in this article. This is where myths come to be exposed.

Myth #1: Michael Crabtree Changes Everything

A prominent story line this week will be that San Francisco is a different team with Michael Crabtree, and he did not play in the first game versus Seattle. Those can be both be true statements, but still tell you very little about how Crabtree plays against Seattle.


FACT: Crabtree has never scored a touchdown against Pete Carroll's Seahawks


FACT: Crabtree averages 3 catches and 34 yards per game vs Seattle since 2010


FACT: Crabtree played in Seattle last year during the Seahawks 42-13 victory

Myth #2: This game is Wilson vs. Kaepernick

Besides the fact that quarterbacks do not face each other, this game will be more about the running game than the passing game.


FACT: The team that has ended the game with more rushing yards in 8-0 in this rivalry since 2010


FACT: Colin Kaepernick had 87 rushing yards in the first game this year, and SF was still out-rushed by 72 yards


FACT: Frank Gore had not had 100+ yards rushing in Seattle since 2006


FACT: Gore has averaged 120.5 yards rushing vs. Seattle at home, but just 22 yards rushing in Seattle the last two years


Myth #3: Seattle has never faced a hot Kaepernick

Kaepernick is playing terrific football right now. He finished the regular season going over 100.0 in passer rating for six of his last seven games. He totaled over 300 total yards of offense versus Green Bay and had two touchdowns against the Panthers. There is reason for 49ers fans to be emboldened by his play, but history suggests his play against the rest of the NFL has little correlation to his play against the Seahawks.


FACT: Before Kaepernick's first game as a starter versus Seattle, he was one of the hottest quarterbacks in football, and was coming off of back-to-back games of 100+ passer rating, including a 108.5 game in New England where he had 4 touchdowns. He left Seattle with a 72.0 rating, his worst as a starter up until that point.


FACT: Before Kaepernick's second game against Seattle, he set a career high with 412 yards passing versus the Packers and a 129.4 rating that included 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He left Seattle with a career-worst 20.1 passer rating that featured 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.


FACT: Before Kaepernick's third game against Seattle, he had two straight games of 100+ passer rating, including a 134.6 against the Redskins. He finished the game against the Seahawks with a 67.5 rating after being intercepted by Byron Maxwell. That game included Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. Seattle only got 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hits in that game. It was the only time in the last 9 games that he had a rating below 72.9.


FACT: Kaepernick has combined for a 52.9 passer rating in three career starts versus Seattle with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions


Myth #4: Vernon Davis would have made a difference if he was not knocked out last year in Seattle

Davis is one of the best tight ends in football, and actually seems like a pretty cool guy. He has not been afraid to praise the Seahawks or the Seattle fans. He has been on fire of late, scoring a touchdown in 8 of his last 9 games. Wow. The one game he didn't score, he did not play. He has generally struggled against Seattle.


FACT: Davis has averaged 3.5 catches and 39 yards per game versus the Seahawks sine 2010


FACT: Davis scored a touchdown in the last game between these teams, but has only 2 in the past 8 match-ups


FACT: Davis has had under 30 yards receiving in four straight games vs Seattle and under 60 in six straight


Myth #5: Anquan Boldin can't be stopped

Boldin is one of my favorite players in the NFL. It is hard to have anything but respect for a guy that plays with his toughness and penchant for clutch plays. Still, he has not fared well up here.


FACT: Boldin may have had 93 yards receiving in San Francisco, but in his two games in Seattle since 2010, he has totaled 29 yards and 3 catches


FACT: Boldin has not scored a touchdown against Seattle in his three games since 2010


Myth #6: The 49ers have a massive advantage at receiver

Crabtree and Boldin are good players, but neither has had much success against this defense. Seattle has some players that have had particular success against San Francisco.


FACT: No player has had more receiving touchdowns against San Francisco in the past three years than Doug Baldwin, who has four


FACT: One-third of Baldwin's career touchdowns have come against the 49ers


FACT: Baldwin has the 4th-most receiving yards against the 49ers since 2011 despite playing in an offense that passes less than any other in football


FACT: In Percy Harvin's one game against the 49ers last year, he had 9 receptions in 11 targets for 89 yards, and a run for 9 yards. His total yardage of 98 yards in that game is more than any receiver for either team has totaled against their respective opponent in a single game.


Myth #7: San Francisco has a massive advantage in the offensive line

I would say the 49ers offensive line is the best in football. They feature tons of top-shelf talent that has been healthy and cohesive for a number of years. Seattle has been shuffling it's line due to injury all year, but has stabilized now. When these teams play each other, there is reason to think the line advantage goes to Seattle.


FACT: No player has rushed for more yards against the 49ers since Jim Harbaugh arrived than Marshawn Lynch


FACT: Lynch's 524 yards rushing over that span is over 200 yards more than the nearest follower


FACT: No player in the NFL has more than 2 rushing touchdowns against the 49ers since 2011 except Lynch who has 5. Frank Gore has just 1 touchdown during that same span.


FACT: Russell Wilson has been sacked 2.3 times per start versus San Francisco compared to 3.0 for Kapernick versus Seattle


FACT: Michael Bowie did not play in either game versus San Francisco this year. Seattle had the best rushing total of their last six games in his first start versus New Orleans


Myth #8: The 49ers are the only ones getting key players back

Mike Iupati did not play in the last game in San Francisco between these teams. Neither did Tarrell Brown. But the 49ers have lost Bruce Miller, and possibly his replacement at fullback. Laugh if you want, but Miller has more receiving yards against Seattle this year than Vernon Davis (FACT). Carlos Rogers may also be out. Seattle did not have Brandon Browner for any of the past three games against the 49ers. Seattle has gained some important contributors back since the last game.


FACT: Walter Thurmond III deflected a ball in the first game that led to a crucial interception, but did not play in the last game


FACT: Harvin did not play in either game


FACT: Bowie did not play in either game, and Max Unger left the last game with a chest injury


FACT: That last game was just the second game back for tackles Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini

FACT: K.J. Wright had to leave the last game. He may play in this one


Myth #9: The Seahawks Offense has to play better to beat San Francisco

Seattle will certainly have an easier time winning if their offense has a better game, but it is not necessary for a win, even a resounding win.


FACT: Seattle had just 277 yards of offense versus New Orleans. They had 290 yards in their 29-3 win earlier this year over San Francisco

Myth #10: Russell Wilson has to play better to beat San Francisco


Wilson has not been playing his best football, but he has not had to for Seattle to win.


FACT: Seattle had 103 yards passing versus New Orleans. They had 118 in the first game versus the 49ers


FACT: Wilson was just 8/19 in the first game when the Seahawks won by 26 points


Knowledge is power

There will certainly be other myths that crop up as the week rolls along. I will do my best to provide facts. Share this information with other fans so they know when to shut off the talking heads on TV since they so often have no basis for their opinions.


FACT: Both of these teams deserve to be in this game


FACT: This will be a game you will never forget.
​

 

[scoutyjones2]

Russell Wilson's inability to get TD's will be Seattles downfall...settling for fg's isn't going to win it.
Wilsons' rating is horrible and he has a poor receiving core. Kap has proven he can repeatedly win on the road in the playoffs.
Using "stats" going back to 2010 is specious...neither QB was even running their teams at that point, but nice try
Kap is the more dangerous QB with the better offensive weapons. Sorry Hawks, like is always stated in Seatlle, wait till next year.

 

[tshirt]

The Denver Broncos have the best pass blocking oline in the NFL in terms of giving up sacks

The Patriots have the 9th best pass blocking oline in the NFL in terms of giving up sacks while the Broncos dline is 21st in getting to the QB (most likely due to Von Miller being gone). Tom Brady should have all day to throw against the Broncos.

Meanwhile in the NFC, you aren't going to be seeing the same level of QB play. You're going to see QBs holding on to the ball to make big plays but you are also going to see QBs holding on to the ball and taking sacks.

Seattle's oline is the worst in the league at protecting Wilson from getting sacked. Part of this is due to injuries, though, and they might be playing at a higher level now. The same could be said about the Niners ability to generate a pass rush which was only 29th over the course of the year. The fact that really one of the only weaknesses on the Hawks probably isn't going to be exploited by the Niners is a huge reason why the Seahawks match up so well with them.

The Niners oline is 22nd in the league at protecting Kap from getting sacked while the Seahawks are 7th in the league with their pass rush. This is going to be a nightmare for Kaepernick if you factor in how good Seattle's secondary is.

arguably the best trait for a pro-style QB is being able to recognize the blitzes that the opponent has coming. Manning and Brady are GOATs at being anti-blitz QBs. A huge match-up will be the battle of wits between Manning and BB regarding if BB is better at disguising his blitzes or if Manning is better at recognizing them. Same with Brady v Fox/Del Rio

as Wilson and Kap are so young, their ability to recognize blitzes is still under development

 

[packerzrule]

Once again, the Seattle pass rush will treat Kaep like a blowup doll and if he throws, it's usually to his #1 WR whenever he visits Seattle, Richard Sherman.

not so sure about that

Carolina was the league leader in sacks and they barely touched Kaepernick


the Niners look like a team of destiny this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with another Lomardi

 

[Clayton]

FACT: Both of these teams deserve to be in this game


FACT: This will be a game you will never forget.
[/LEFT]

This mentality is getting old. Seattle people dump on the Niners in the worst possible way then they suggest that the game will be close and memorable.

 

[Wedgie]

This mentality is getting old. Seattle people dump on the Niners in the worst possible way then they suggest that the game will be close and memorable.

I am confused by why someone could be so clueless about having MOST Seattle fans saying it will be close, with only a FEW saying it wont be close.

How can one be so simpleminded as to take posts from different people and conflate them to be a single entity is beyond me.

 

[Clayton]

I am confused by why someone could be so clueless about having MOST Seattle fans saying it will be close, with only a FEW saying it wont be close.

How can one be so simpleminded as to take posts from different people and conflate them to be a single entity is beyond me.

Another post that is humble yet pretentious. Love it

 

[Wedgie]

Another post that is humble yet pretentious. Love it

And yet, your absolute lack of logic still sits there.

 

[ram29jackson]

A review of the 2007 season stats between the 16-0 Pats and the 9-7 Giants should point out the worthlessness of stats in determining the SB winner.

no, it just means people don't know how to review things. The Giants played the Pats very well in a game at the end of the season and got to know their strengths a little better. Everyone and their mother bet the Giants to cover.

all I'm saying is the Pats weren't the overwhelming favorite the media made it out to be. Most football junkies knew a war was a'comin