A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[SlinkyRedfoot]

well i think those pitching numbers are skewed due to Tomlin losing his shit in August and Salazar going into a slump.

"The Indians bad pitching numbers have been skewed by Indians pitchers pitching badly."

lol

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Im basing it off the recent performances of Carrasco and Salazar which seem to indicate they are back-or close to- pitching at their expected level of performance as strongly above average starters.

There's definitely reason to be optimistic, but you know the saying; don't go fucking your chickens before they lay eggs. Or something like that.

Even if they do get back on track, you can't deny the fact that the Tigers pitching staff has been fucking awesome since the All-Star Break. Of course, @broncosmitty would probably tell you that that just means they're due for an "ERA correction."

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

he cant really believe what he is saying...

i mean- Tigers definitely are not out of the race for the Central- and as there are 7 games between the teams anything can happen- but to not acknowledge the Indians are substantial favorites to win the division at this point is just denying the obvious.

That's how this thread rolls, dude. A week ago, black francis was telling us that the Royals would win the division despite FanGraphs giving them a 0.5% chance of doing so.

 

[WiggyRuss]

"The Indians bad pitching numbers have been skewed by Indians pitchers pitching badly."

lol

I have rarely seen a pitcher have as bad a month as Tomlin did in August. Wow was that bad. Has CODy Anderson been so bad at AAA that they wont give him a shot? he was lights out last September.

 

[broncosmitty]

well i think those pitching numbers are skewed due to Tomlin losing his shit in August and Salazar going into a slump.

Im basing it off the recent performances of Carrasco and Salazar which seem to indicate they are back-or close to- pitching at their expected level of performance as strongly above average starters. Miller has actually given up runs in his last 2 appearances as well- but going forward over these last 3+ weeks you cant tell me that a core pitching staff of Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Miller, Allen, Shaw is not superior to Verlander, Fullmer, Sanchez, Zimmerman (?), Krod, Rondon, Wilson (are those the Tigers 3 highest leverage relievers?)...

When all is said and done- i think you would have to agree that I trust the Indians pitching staff and the Tigers offense more so than the Indians offense and the Tigers pitching staff.....though you are definitely right when you describe their performance since the ASB.

I'm just going off numbers, not names and expectations. Pitching and the lineup, for both. I'm not excusing anything away for Detroits offense, as that's a homer move.

But I don't know why Indians fans prop up Bauer tbh. He's a backend (maybe middle, maybe.)of the staff starting pitcher, on most teams. (Excluding the Twins of course.)

And Salazar is very talented, with what appears to be effort/focus issues.

Don't confuse that with me thinking that there's even a race for the division. Cuz I don't, and haven't all year. Tigers are doin better this season than I anticipated(pitching has been much better than Id planned on seeing) and id hoped for an outside shot at a WC coming in.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I have rarely seen a pitcher have as bad a month as Tomlin did in August. Wow was that bad. Has CODy Anderson been so bad at AAA that they wont give him a shot? he was lights out last September.

Yeah, it was ugly.

My point was just that when 40% of a pitching rotation is in full on shit the bed mode, you have to acknowledge that there are pitching issues. It wasn't just that numbers were skewed.

 

[broncosmitty]

I've neither the time nor inclination to breakout the splits for rotation/bullpen 2nd half splits, but as a staff, there's no doubt Tigers have been better.

Team ERA Post All-Star Break
CLE - 4.12
DET - 3.52

In fact, Tigers' ERA is league best in that time, and the Indians is only slightly better than average. August was particularly bad for Indians' pitchers - 0.40 ERA worse than league average.



Yes it is.

I hope for the best from Sanchez. And expect otherwise. If you're expecting the best from Salazar, I hope you dont consider making it out of the sixth as a benchmark. Since he hasn't done that in almost two months.

 

[broncosmitty]

There's definitely reason to be optimistic, but you know the saying; don't go fucking your chickens before they lay eggs. Or something like that.

Even if they do get back on track, you can't deny the fact that the Tigers pitching staff has been fucking awesome since the All-Star Break. Of course, @broncosmitty would probably tell you that that just means they're due for an "ERA correction."

You fuckin know it brotha!

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But I don't know why Indians fans prop up Bauer tbh. He's a backend (maybe middle, maybe.)of the staff starting pitcher, on most teams. (Excluding the Twins of course.)

His ERA ranks 16th in the AL among qualified pitchers. I don't know of any Indians fans who "prop him up" any higher than our solid number 3, but to suggest that he's "backend pitcher" on most teams is selling him pretty damn short. There are only 9 teams in the AL that have a starter with a lower ERA.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I hope for the best from Sanchez. And expect otherwise. If you're expecting the best from Salazar, I hope you dont consider making it out of the sixth as a benchmark. Since he hasn't done that in almost two months.

So, if you had to choose who would start tomorrow's game for the Tigers, Sanchez or Salazar, you'd have to contemplate it, or would be comfortable with a coin flip making the decision?

 

[broncosmitty]

So, if you had to choose who would start tomorrow's game for the Tigers, Sanchez or Salazar, you'd have to contemplate it, or would be comfortable with a coin flip making the decision?

For one game?

So long as I get to call it, go ahead and flip.

For the long haul, Id take Salazar over Carrasco tbh. Dude has a great arm, and a shit load of confidence. Which is also his biggest flaw, imo. (Just for the record, id take Norris first of any Tigers starter longterm. Not sure if Id take him over Sanchez for one game though.)

 

[WiggyRuss]

I'm just going off numbers, not names and expectations. Pitching and the lineup, for both. I'm not excusing anything away for Detroits offense, as that's a homer move.

But I don't know why Indians fans prop up Bauer tbh. He's a backend (maybe middle, maybe.)of the staff starting pitcher, on most teams. (Excluding the Twins of course.)

And Salazar is very talented, with what appears to be effort/focus issues.

Don't confuse that with me thinking that there's even a race for the division. Cuz I don't, and haven't all year. Tigers are doin better this season than I anticipated(pitching has been much better than Id planned on seeing) and id hoped for an outside shot at a WC coming in.

Bauer is inconsistent but he has the ability to spin a gem any day he goes out.....most often it is feast or famine with him it seems.

I would give Bauer a start in a playoff series though. I love his mentality- hes a tad eccentric to say the least.

 

[WiggyRuss]

So, if you had to choose who would start tomorrow's game for the Tigers, Sanchez or Salazar, you'd have to contemplate it, or would be comfortable with a coin flip making the decision?

it would be hard for me to believe many people would - if any- would choose Sanchez over Salazar.

Salazar has his consistency issues- but he was in the discussion to start the all star game and has dominated at times this year.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

For one game?

So long as I get to call it, go ahead and flip.

It takes all kinds, I guess.

I'd suggest a one week avi bet on whose next start is better, but I'm not sure Sanchez is gonna get one.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

it would be hard for me to believe many people would - if any- would choose Sanchez over Salazar.

Well, Salazar hasn't made it to the seventh in months. . .

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

it would be hard for me to believe many people would - if any- would choose Sanchez over Salazar.

Salazar has his consistency issues- but he was in the discussion to start the all star game and has dominated at times this year.

It's not even "at times" this year. His season thus far can be precisely divided at the point when the calendar turned to July. He dominated in his first sixteen starts to the tune of a 2.36 ERA with 113 Ks in 99 IP.

Since July 9th, he's still been racking up K's, but his ERA is 7.86 in 8 starts.

He's shown some promise the last two starts, allowing just 3 runs over 11 innings while striking out 21. Hopefully he can build on that and use it to get back on track heading into October.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

it would be hard for me to believe many people would - if any- would choose Sanchez over Salazar.

Salazar has his consistency issues- but he was in the discussion to start the all star game and has dominated at times this year.

Nobody in their right mind would choose Sanchez in that situation. Salazar is a great, young arm. Sanchez is inconsistent at best and washed up at worst.

 

[broncosmitty]

It takes all kinds, I guess.

I'd suggest a one week avi bet on whose next start is better, but I'm not sure Sanchez is gonna get one.

All depends on how much Zim sucks in his next return start.

Speaking of which, JV versus Balmer is not a matchup I like. Long balls all over hell...

(Id have a hard time betting on Sanchez anyway.)

 

[broncosmitty]

Nobody in their right mind would choose Sanchez in that situation. Salazar is a great, young arm. Sanchez is inconsistent at best and washed up at worst.

Have you looked at Salazars body of work since "he was in the running to start the AS game"?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Have you looked at Salazars body of work since "he was in the running to start the AS game"?

Ugly, for sure.

If this was August 27th, I'd agree with you, maybe even prefer Sanchez for one start because of how bad Salazar had been. Salazar's had a couple of promising starts since. Given that and what he did in the first three months, I think most objective fans would take Salazar to start their team's game tomorrow.