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Blackshirts BLVD
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I didn't see this created and it isn't like it really matters, but to keep things moving....
Best, worst case scenarios for every Big Ten team in 2019
Illinois — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7); Worst-case scenario: (3-9, 0-9) — Akron, UConn and Eastern Michigan. That's three games that Illinois will be favored to win and all come before the Big Ten opener vs. Nebraska on Sept. 21. What does this mean? For the first time in Lovie Smith's tenure, the Illini could have actual momentum heading into a conference showdown. After the game vs. the Huskers, Rutgers and Minnesota are the only matchups left Illinois could possibly win.
Indiana — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 1-8) — There's not much volatility with Indiana's 2019 schedule with only a one-game difference being the projection between best and worst-case scenarios. Going 3-0 during the non-conference portion is essential, as well as beating Rutgers on Oct. 12. We're seeing the swing-game coming the week after that on the road vs. Maryland. Win there and the Hoosiers could have a shot at bowl season with a victory over a team they shouldn't beat in November.
Iowa — Best-case scenario: (8-4, 5-4); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 3-6) — There's a chance Iowa could be 4-0 exiting September and we still won't know if this team is Big Ten title caliber yet. The Week 2 tilt at Iowa State is extremely tough, but will be one of those black-and-blue games that comes down to the fourth quarter. Unlike the past few seasons, Iowa's league slate does no favors and the Hawkeyes will play Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan. @iowajerms (are there other Iowa fans on here?)
Maryland — Best-case scenario: (8-4, 5-4); Worst-case scenario: (5-7, 3-6) — Mike Locksley's first season with the Terps will include ups and downs, but Maryland should get to the postseason this fall. The Terps will be in great shape if they can get through the first half 4-2 — and that's including wins at Temple, at Rutgers and at Purdue. This team has its work cut out for them down the stretch, facing one of the toughest final months in college football with possible four games vs. nationally-ranked teams in the Big Ten.
Michigan -- Best-case scenario: (11-1, 8-1) — The schedule is simply too challenging to pick an unbeaten regular season as the best-case scenario, but 11-1 would play for Jim Harbaugh and Co. That could mean a berth in the Big Ten title game for the first time in his tenure if that lone loss doesn't come to those hated Buckeyes. Should Michigan get to the midway point 6-0 with Penn State kicking off the second half of the slate, Harbaugh's team will be inside the Top 10 and very much in the national conversation.
Worst-case scenario: (9-3, 7-2) — It's hard to pick out three Big Ten losses on the schedule this season for the Wolverines outside of another potential loss to Ohio State and a 1-1 split in road games with Penn State and Wisconsin, so we'll go with No. 3 coming via Notre Dame in October. That's a must-win game for Michigan as far as College Football Playoff hopes are concerned and could really turn this season from good to potentially great. It'll come in handy too in the eyes of the selection committee if the Wolverines are in contention down the stretch.
Michigan State -- Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — For those Spartans fans expecting Mark Dantonio to get back to 10 wins this season, you need to scale back expectations a bit. There's possibly five contests vs. Top 25 teams this fall, including the Big Ten opener at Northwestern on Sept. 21. Now if Michigan State takes that game in Evanston, there's a good chance the Spartans are 5-0 entering October with a battle at Ohio State, a great situation to be in the rest of the way.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 3-6) — There's a five-game stretch this season in which the Spartans play road games vs. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan surrounding home bouts with Penn State and Illinois. The only mark-it-down-as-a-win game there is Illinois — potentially brutal and certainly a season-defining stretch. Michigan State should go, at worst, 3-1 in November with a loss to the Wolverines, so at least the final month of the season shouldn't be as challenging getting to bowl eligibility in a worst-case scenario setup.
Minnesota — Best-case scenario: (7-5, 4-5); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 2-7) — Expectations, at least from an outside-the-program standpoint, are relatively low for the Gophers in 2019 despite ending the season with a bowl victory. This team likely won't have the depth to challenge for a division championship, but the schedule does allow for a potentially surprise season. Minnesota won't play Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State this fall.
Nebraska -- Best-case scenario: (10-2, 7-2) — Nebraska has the highest volatility in the Big Ten as far as win-loss differential judging by the schedule. In an ideal scenario, the only losses the Huskers suffer during Scott Frost's second season come against Ohio State and Wisconsin, two teams who are simply better at most positions with a more complete roster. Nebraska could be favored in all other Big Ten matchups if September starts with a bang.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — Don't lose to Colorado. That Week 2 trip to face the Buffaloes could create a premature nosedive if Nebraska stubs its toe against an old Big 12 rival it should beat. Nebraska's schedule isn't as difficult as some of the perceived top-tier teams in the Big Ten, but there are some tricky areas if quarterback Adrian Martinez isn't as good as advertised and the defense hasn't improved. At worst, this team should play in a bowl game this fall.
Northwestern — Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 5-4) — Is it possible that the Wildcats' season-opener will potentially show us where this team could end up this season? It's silly considering last fall's stumble out the gate still led to a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, right? The first half of Northwestern's 2019 schedule is murderer's row — Stanford, UNLV Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State — all over an eight-week stretch. Both of the program's byes come during the first half of the season.
Ohio State -- Best-case scenario: (12-0, 9-0) — One of the few teams nationally with a chance to go unbeaten this season, the Buckeyes may need some help to get there considering the schedule is loaded with potential pitfalls vs. Top 25 competition. Ohio State should be 4-0 with relative ease heading into its first serious road test of the season, a Sept. 28 showdown at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have dominated the recent series, but this Huskers team is different and could present problems like they did last season with Adrian Martinez under center. From there, Ryan Day battles Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan in his first campaign. That's tough.
Worst-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — If Ohio State doesn't get elite play out of Justin Fields or Matthew Baldwin at quarterback and its defense is as bad — or worse — as it was last season, Day's first season could be a huge disappointment. This program is accustomed to competing for Big Ten titles and being in the national championship annually, so a three regular season would be a colossal stinker considering the talent returning on both sides of the football.
Penn State -- Best-case scenario: (10-2, 7-2) — Not ashamed to admit I'm not as high on Penn State this season as some, but I do think the Nittany Lions could challenge for double-digit victories with an elite defense and offense that does enough to win games. Micah Parsons was really impressive last fall as a freshman, blossoming into a near instantaneous leader on his side of the football. This team will be all about the sum of its parts after replacing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders and to hit this number, a 6-0 start is necessary heading into the Michigan game on Oct. 19.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — What happens if Penn State's new starter at quarterback struggles during the first month of the season? Are the Nittany Lions in danger of losing to Pitt or Maryland? The good news is Penn State's Big Ten opener comes after an open week, early in the season, sure, but crucial nonetheless. There would be unrest among the fanbase if this disaster scenario came to fruition, a devastating 6-6 finish that would likely include setbacks vs. Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Iowa in conference play.
Purdue — Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — The Boilermakers' schedule during Jeff Brohm's third season is difficult, but the good news is they won't play Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State during the regular season. The non-conference slate features home games vs. Vanderbilt and TCU, two teams Purdue should be able to overcome at home. But if the Boilermakers split those and drop road matchups at Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa, the margin for error elsewhere is minimal
Rutgers — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 3-6); Worst-case scenario: (2-10, 0-9) — Rutgers should beat UMass and the Hugh Freeze-coached Liberty Flames this season, but after that? In order to hit six wins and ultimately get to a bowl game as a loft preseason expectation, the Scarlet Knights must load up on as many wins as possible during a soft mid-season stretch considering Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State all come over the final three weeks of November.
Wisconsin -- Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — No disrespect to the Badgers, but Wisconsin may have the toughest schedule in the Big Ten this season — making double-digit wins next to impossible. Visions of grandeur might be a little off-base, but the Badgers will bounce-back from a disappointing finish in 2018 with a terrific defense and Jonathan Taylor leading the charge in the backfield.
Worst-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7) — Wisconsin literally plays every above-average to elite team in the Big Ten this fall. Here's how the schedule looks, as far as competition at the top — vs. Michigan, vs. Northwestern, vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Nebraska, vs. Purdue. Let's look at this optimistically and say the Badgers win two of those six matchups. That still leaves four losses and perhaps more somewhere else on the schedule. This could be a long year for Paul Chryst.
Best, worst case scenarios for every Big Ten team in 2019
Illinois — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7); Worst-case scenario: (3-9, 0-9) — Akron, UConn and Eastern Michigan. That's three games that Illinois will be favored to win and all come before the Big Ten opener vs. Nebraska on Sept. 21. What does this mean? For the first time in Lovie Smith's tenure, the Illini could have actual momentum heading into a conference showdown. After the game vs. the Huskers, Rutgers and Minnesota are the only matchups left Illinois could possibly win.
Indiana — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 1-8) — There's not much volatility with Indiana's 2019 schedule with only a one-game difference being the projection between best and worst-case scenarios. Going 3-0 during the non-conference portion is essential, as well as beating Rutgers on Oct. 12. We're seeing the swing-game coming the week after that on the road vs. Maryland. Win there and the Hoosiers could have a shot at bowl season with a victory over a team they shouldn't beat in November.
Iowa — Best-case scenario: (8-4, 5-4); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 3-6) — There's a chance Iowa could be 4-0 exiting September and we still won't know if this team is Big Ten title caliber yet. The Week 2 tilt at Iowa State is extremely tough, but will be one of those black-and-blue games that comes down to the fourth quarter. Unlike the past few seasons, Iowa's league slate does no favors and the Hawkeyes will play Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan. @iowajerms (are there other Iowa fans on here?)
Maryland — Best-case scenario: (8-4, 5-4); Worst-case scenario: (5-7, 3-6) — Mike Locksley's first season with the Terps will include ups and downs, but Maryland should get to the postseason this fall. The Terps will be in great shape if they can get through the first half 4-2 — and that's including wins at Temple, at Rutgers and at Purdue. This team has its work cut out for them down the stretch, facing one of the toughest final months in college football with possible four games vs. nationally-ranked teams in the Big Ten.
Michigan -- Best-case scenario: (11-1, 8-1) — The schedule is simply too challenging to pick an unbeaten regular season as the best-case scenario, but 11-1 would play for Jim Harbaugh and Co. That could mean a berth in the Big Ten title game for the first time in his tenure if that lone loss doesn't come to those hated Buckeyes. Should Michigan get to the midway point 6-0 with Penn State kicking off the second half of the slate, Harbaugh's team will be inside the Top 10 and very much in the national conversation.
Worst-case scenario: (9-3, 7-2) — It's hard to pick out three Big Ten losses on the schedule this season for the Wolverines outside of another potential loss to Ohio State and a 1-1 split in road games with Penn State and Wisconsin, so we'll go with No. 3 coming via Notre Dame in October. That's a must-win game for Michigan as far as College Football Playoff hopes are concerned and could really turn this season from good to potentially great. It'll come in handy too in the eyes of the selection committee if the Wolverines are in contention down the stretch.
Michigan State -- Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — For those Spartans fans expecting Mark Dantonio to get back to 10 wins this season, you need to scale back expectations a bit. There's possibly five contests vs. Top 25 teams this fall, including the Big Ten opener at Northwestern on Sept. 21. Now if Michigan State takes that game in Evanston, there's a good chance the Spartans are 5-0 entering October with a battle at Ohio State, a great situation to be in the rest of the way.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 3-6) — There's a five-game stretch this season in which the Spartans play road games vs. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan surrounding home bouts with Penn State and Illinois. The only mark-it-down-as-a-win game there is Illinois — potentially brutal and certainly a season-defining stretch. Michigan State should go, at worst, 3-1 in November with a loss to the Wolverines, so at least the final month of the season shouldn't be as challenging getting to bowl eligibility in a worst-case scenario setup.
Minnesota — Best-case scenario: (7-5, 4-5); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 2-7) — Expectations, at least from an outside-the-program standpoint, are relatively low for the Gophers in 2019 despite ending the season with a bowl victory. This team likely won't have the depth to challenge for a division championship, but the schedule does allow for a potentially surprise season. Minnesota won't play Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State this fall.
Nebraska -- Best-case scenario: (10-2, 7-2) — Nebraska has the highest volatility in the Big Ten as far as win-loss differential judging by the schedule. In an ideal scenario, the only losses the Huskers suffer during Scott Frost's second season come against Ohio State and Wisconsin, two teams who are simply better at most positions with a more complete roster. Nebraska could be favored in all other Big Ten matchups if September starts with a bang.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — Don't lose to Colorado. That Week 2 trip to face the Buffaloes could create a premature nosedive if Nebraska stubs its toe against an old Big 12 rival it should beat. Nebraska's schedule isn't as difficult as some of the perceived top-tier teams in the Big Ten, but there are some tricky areas if quarterback Adrian Martinez isn't as good as advertised and the defense hasn't improved. At worst, this team should play in a bowl game this fall.
Northwestern — Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 5-4) — Is it possible that the Wildcats' season-opener will potentially show us where this team could end up this season? It's silly considering last fall's stumble out the gate still led to a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, right? The first half of Northwestern's 2019 schedule is murderer's row — Stanford, UNLV Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State — all over an eight-week stretch. Both of the program's byes come during the first half of the season.
Ohio State -- Best-case scenario: (12-0, 9-0) — One of the few teams nationally with a chance to go unbeaten this season, the Buckeyes may need some help to get there considering the schedule is loaded with potential pitfalls vs. Top 25 competition. Ohio State should be 4-0 with relative ease heading into its first serious road test of the season, a Sept. 28 showdown at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have dominated the recent series, but this Huskers team is different and could present problems like they did last season with Adrian Martinez under center. From there, Ryan Day battles Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan in his first campaign. That's tough.
Worst-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — If Ohio State doesn't get elite play out of Justin Fields or Matthew Baldwin at quarterback and its defense is as bad — or worse — as it was last season, Day's first season could be a huge disappointment. This program is accustomed to competing for Big Ten titles and being in the national championship annually, so a three regular season would be a colossal stinker considering the talent returning on both sides of the football.
Penn State -- Best-case scenario: (10-2, 7-2) — Not ashamed to admit I'm not as high on Penn State this season as some, but I do think the Nittany Lions could challenge for double-digit victories with an elite defense and offense that does enough to win games. Micah Parsons was really impressive last fall as a freshman, blossoming into a near instantaneous leader on his side of the football. This team will be all about the sum of its parts after replacing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders and to hit this number, a 6-0 start is necessary heading into the Michigan game on Oct. 19.
Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — What happens if Penn State's new starter at quarterback struggles during the first month of the season? Are the Nittany Lions in danger of losing to Pitt or Maryland? The good news is Penn State's Big Ten opener comes after an open week, early in the season, sure, but crucial nonetheless. There would be unrest among the fanbase if this disaster scenario came to fruition, a devastating 6-6 finish that would likely include setbacks vs. Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Iowa in conference play.
Purdue — Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3); Worst-case scenario: (6-6, 4-5) — The Boilermakers' schedule during Jeff Brohm's third season is difficult, but the good news is they won't play Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State during the regular season. The non-conference slate features home games vs. Vanderbilt and TCU, two teams Purdue should be able to overcome at home. But if the Boilermakers split those and drop road matchups at Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa, the margin for error elsewhere is minimal
Rutgers — Best-case scenario: (5-7, 3-6); Worst-case scenario: (2-10, 0-9) — Rutgers should beat UMass and the Hugh Freeze-coached Liberty Flames this season, but after that? In order to hit six wins and ultimately get to a bowl game as a loft preseason expectation, the Scarlet Knights must load up on as many wins as possible during a soft mid-season stretch considering Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State all come over the final three weeks of November.
Wisconsin -- Best-case scenario: (9-3, 6-3) — No disrespect to the Badgers, but Wisconsin may have the toughest schedule in the Big Ten this season — making double-digit wins next to impossible. Visions of grandeur might be a little off-base, but the Badgers will bounce-back from a disappointing finish in 2018 with a terrific defense and Jonathan Taylor leading the charge in the backfield.
Worst-case scenario: (5-7, 2-7) — Wisconsin literally plays every above-average to elite team in the Big Ten this fall. Here's how the schedule looks, as far as competition at the top — vs. Michigan, vs. Northwestern, vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Nebraska, vs. Purdue. Let's look at this optimistically and say the Badgers win two of those six matchups. That still leaves four losses and perhaps more somewhere else on the schedule. This could be a long year for Paul Chryst.
