2024 Season Thread

[Anointed One]

I think you are overestimating how much players put into winning when it comes to free agency. 99% of players are going to take the best offer, period.

Which is why I believe almost every FA player is overpaid... What I mean by that is it seems like most FA's aren't as productive as they were with their previous team... It seems like the team, scheme, surrounding casts makes a player better than what they really are... The defensive back run for the Seahawks the past 10 years is a good example... Byron Maxwell for starters... Goes to Miami and stinks...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Which is why I believe almost every FA player is overpaid... What I mean by that is it seems like most FA's aren't as productive as they were with their previous team... It seems like the team, scheme, surrounding casts makes a player better than what they really are... The defensive back run for the Seahawks the past 10 years is a good example... Byron Maxwell for starters... Goes to Miami and stinks...

Not all of them are. Some good free agents will come to a team where they think they can get a Super Bowl, AP/PB designation, go deep in the playoffs. And why? To cash in on the next contract. Happens more often than you think. Someone like Smith is going to be looking for a HUGE contract from prob. a sub par or non-playoff team and cash in. He's already got two Super Bowls... cash in, get fat happy.

And that happens all the time in free agency. Crappy teams have to overpay for free agent players and pray they work out... and those two things generally contradict each other. There's a reason the original team is letting them walk to begin with.

Sometimes you get a good bargain or you have the cash to pay a player while the original team doesn't. And if good players are at the end of their career or looking for a massive second/third paycheck what do you need to be to actually attract those guys? A good team. $25M vs. $27M isn't going to sway an agent (remember these guys are part of it) from sticking a player on a crappy team thus making him irrelevant vs. a damn good team to make another $30M extra in 3 years.

 

[Anointed One]

Not all of them are. Some good free agents will come to a team where they think they can get a Super Bowl, AP/PB designation, go deep in the playoffs. And why? To cash in on the next contract. Happens more often than you think. Someone like Smith is going to be looking for a HUGE contract from prob. a sub par or non-playoff team and cash in. He's already got two Super Bowls... cash in, get fat happy.

And that happens all the time in free agency. Crappy teams have to overpay for free agent players and pray they work out... and those two things generally contradict each other. There's a reason the original team is letting them walk to begin with.

Sometimes you get a good bargain or you have the cash to pay a player while the original team doesn't. And if good players are at the end of their career or looking for a massive second/third paycheck what do you need to be to actually attract those guys? A good team. $25M vs. $27M isn't going to sway an agent (remember these guys are part of it) from sticking a player on a crappy team thus making him irrelevant vs. a damn good team to make another $30M extra in 3 years.

Normally, players that are productive with their current team who want to move on and, "get paid" don't seem to pan out in terms of providing the same productivity or better that would match their higher salary... Just seems to be a common theme but that's how FA goes... For example, id rather another team pay DK because in his new contract, his productivity on the field won't match the salary he's given... JMO...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Normally, players that are productive with their current team who want to move on and, "get paid" don't seem to pan out in terms of providing the same productivity or better that would match their higher salary... Just seems to be a common theme but that's how FA goes... For example, id rather another team pay DK because in his new contract, his productivity on the field won't match the salary he's given... JMO...

I agree.

Now there's some exceptions to it. I don't know if the Chiefs can actually afford Smith (already paying big money to two OL).

I am 100% fine letting DK, K9, Woolen, and Fant walk... but we should be able to get SOMETHING for DK. Lockett is obviously walking, he restructured his deal to do a favor to Seattle (I'll miss him, though).

 

[flyerhawk]

I assume you're talking to me... and I agree. We're going to have to make a higher offer than possibly 5 other teams because we're worse than those 5 other teams. If we all bid the same, I'm of the opinion the best guards in free agency will NOT go with us because there's more attractive destinations. Hey, I guess Seattle has no state income tax. There's that.

I don't get what is so difficult for some of you to understand (and I know you didn't reply to me directly MrS, I'm going back to the premium we have to pay that flyer responded to me on).. if ALL 32 teams are bidding on you. They are ALL paying the same price. They ALL need your service, you're going to go with the team (bias aside, hey if you just LOVE a team because you grew up there, fine) that has the best chance to win, has the best supporting cast, and we already know that all 32 teams CAN'T bid because some don't have the cap and money to afford it.

And why are you going with the team that can win? Because a Super Bowl winner and potentially PB/AP looks good on your resume, and with better players around you, you have a better chance of getting those. And getting those means more salary for a future extension which someone as young as Smith can CERTAINLY get. Now if someone comes along and says, "Hey we'll give you $50M a year for your guard services!" WELL DUH, you're going to sign it.

SO, if you really want a player or position, you have to outbid other teams if they are more attractive to the player. Hence, pay a premium. Now some teams with huge cap (a number that I already mentioned) can do that anyway... so wtf are we talking about at this point?

We are going to need to offer more than 4 or 5 other teams if we want a top FA because the player is going to take the highest bid.

Maybe if you are talking about an older player looking for one more run but he's already been paid throughout his career, that might happen. But any player in their prime is going to take the highest big from the highest bidder.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Why would we need to pay 125% premium? Players mostly take the highest contract.

We are going to need to offer more than 4 or 5 other teams if we want a top FA because the player is going to take the highest bid.

We're going to have to offer more than 4 or 5 teams because we're a team that few players want to play for... And that's the reason they're testing free agency to begin with.

 

[flyerhawk]

We're going to have to offer more than 4 or 5 teams because we're a team that few players want to play for... And that's the reason they're testing free agency to begin with.

I honestly don't even know what you're arguing here.

Players don't take discounts except in unique situations

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I honestly don't even know what you're arguing here.

Players don't take discounts except in unique situations

I thought it was pretty clear.

You're right, players don't take discounts except in unique situations - like a winning team or a stable team they know they can command more money with in a few years because they're likely to be an all pro/SBOWL winner, etc.

Seattle doesn't have a unique situation. We have a pretty mediocre one, in fact.

If those unique situations don't exist, you pay more for the player. This isn't a new concept flyer..

 

[flyerhawk]

I thought it was pretty clear.

You're right, players don't take discounts except in unique situations - like a winning team or a stable team they know they can command more money with in a few years because they're likely to be an all pro/SBOWL winner, etc.

Seattle doesn't have a unique situation. We have a pretty mediocre one, in fact.

If those unique situations don't exist, you pay more for the player. This isn't a new concept flyer..

Can you give me an example of a player in their prime who you think took less than top dollar to play for a contender?

IMO, the only unique situation for an in their prime player is that they either don't want to move or they want to move back home. I don't see teams like the Chiefs or Niners getting FAs on any sort of discount. Not only that but most title contenders have little or not cash for top dollar FAs. Lastly, the NFL is far too topsy turvy for a player to assume that any team not named the Chiefs will be a Super Bowl contender even 2 years from now.

 

[flyerhawk]

@HaroldSeattle I have hypothetical for you that I wanted to hear your thoughts on. According to Adam Schefter, teams are going to call on the Vikings about JJ McCarthy. There is a possibility that the Vikings trade McCarthy.

So my question to you is would you want the Hawks to make that trade and if yet, what would you be willing to see the team give up to get him?

 

[flyerhawk]

You said it was a "great thread" about Geno's picks. The thread was literally 25 posts explaining away why only 2 of the passes that were, or should have been, picks this season were Geno's fault and then it descends into everyone name calling each other about being in one camp or the other. It is online political discussion level of interactions, so I just assume it's a great thread only because the guy agrees with your assessment of the plays in question.

Now, I will admit I didn't read all 25 breakdowns, or his reasoning behind how 23 of the throws weren't Geno's issue. I read the first half or so, but when they claimed the left-handed throw out of the end zone was an unfortunate outcome to a play where Geno wasn't presented with a better alternative, I knew this was going to be a rose-colored outlook on Geno's performance. Geno broke every rule that a quarterback is taught from the very beginning and apparently it wasn't his fault his pass was intercepted. This wasn't some unbiased analysis, but had the point to show how it wasn't Geno all along, but ignored most if not all evidence that didn't support the claims.

I know why you defend Geno. There's some merit to the stance as well. The OLine isn't very good and it's been consistently in the lower end of the league since before Geno became the starter. I also feel that Geno's play has placed a lot of pressure on the line by holding onto the ball, being slow through his progressions, being indecisive and poor decision making. This is compounded even further when you've got your 4th RT, 3rd LG and 2nd center taking significant snaps.

Here is Dan Jeremiah talking about this season. He basically lays it at the feet of the IOL. says that Geno is responsible for about half of his picks...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

@HaroldSeattle I have hypothetical for you that I wanted to hear your thoughts on. According to Adam Schefter, teams are going to call on the Vikings about JJ McCarthy. There is a possibility that the Vikings trade McCarthy.

So my question to you is would you want the Hawks to make that trade and if yet, what would you be willing to see the team give up to get him?

Only at the right price and by right price I'm talking like a 2nd round pick or less. I would not sink much capitol on a QB that was never at any point the centerpiece the offense revolved around in college. It's very unusual to see that type go in the first round, nearly all first round QBs were the center piece of their team offense in college. The latest injury has lead to his second knee operation and on the same knee, serious damn injury at that. Someone will pony up much more I'm sure.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I think you are kinda misrepresenting J's impact on the team. He was usually asked to do things in high leverage situations and did them well. He had one of the best 3rd down conversion rates in the country.

He may flop as a pro but he's a legit prospect

What high leverage are you talking about? He wasn't asked to shoulder the load and in that Natty game when asked to move the ball down field he failed. 10-18 140yds is pathetic against a half descent defense but not top 10 caliber.

 

[flyerhawk]

What high leverage are you talking about? He wasn't asked to shoulder the load and in that Natty game when asked to move the ball down field he failed. 10-18 140yds is pathetic against a half descent defense but not top 10 caliber.

You are focused on one game. 10-18 for 140 yards is nearly 8 ypa.

He won the game against Alabama.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Only at the right price and by right price I'm talking like a 2nd round pick or less. I would not sink much capitol on a QB that was never at any point the centerpiece the offense revolved around in college. It's very unusual to see that type go in the first round, nearly all first round QBs were the center piece of their team offense in college. The latest injury has lead to his second knee operation and on the same knee, serious damn injury at that. Someone will pony up much more I'm sure.

4th rounder or less. He's also coming off of ACL surgery

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

You are focused on one game. 10-18 for 140 yards is nearly 8 ypa.

He won the game against Alabama.

That's 35yds per quarter and yes it's one game.

Harb's offense is run heavy with a top 5 defense. Do you watch any Michigan games?

 

[Anointed One]

Here is Dan Jeremiah talking about this season. He basically lays it at the feet of the IOL. says that Geno is responsible for about half of his picks...

Great listen... I enjoy listening to DJ's insight... Here are a few takeaways I got from that convo:

1. Geno's INT's... I agree at least 8 of those were on Geno trying to force the ball into coverages where he should've just held onto it... The other 7 INT's definitely were tipped balls by the Defender or our own receiver... I like how points out that 2 of those were definitely on DK for fading his route instead of running a more crisper route.. gotta help the QB there...
2. Supply/Demand... There are 2 QB's that will most likely go 1 & 2 in the draft... That's not enough to help teams out the top of the draft that desperately need a QB... Titans, Jets, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Seahawks all need a starting QB... There is just not enough QB's to be drafted to fill the needs of the teams...
3. FA: There isn't a lot of options via FA either for teams to fill this need... He mentioned that we could see teams looking into JJ or Sam D; Malik Willis, Fields, Levis, D. Jones... We have to ask ourselves, are any of those QB's better than Geno? If it's a yes, than what are we willing to give up for them?
4. Geno: Since the supply/demand is slim pickins this year via FA and the draft, will Geno hold out for a larger contract/extension knowing that? I'm sure it's something on his agents mind as we speak because he wants to get paid as well... No days, with the CBA, players don't hold out like they use to due to the fines so this should be an interesting situation playing out...
5. Speaking of S&D again, should we trade Geno to a team that may be interested in filling a need asap? Could we get a 2nd rounder for him if we do so?

 

[flyerhawk]

Only at the right price and by right price I'm talking like a 2nd round pick or less. I would not sink much capitol on a QB that was never at any point the centerpiece the offense revolved around in college. It's very unusual to see that type go in the first round, nearly all first round QBs were the center piece of their team offense in college. The latest injury has lead to his second knee operation and on the same knee, serious damn injury at that. Someone will pony up much more I'm sure.

So it's not worth the risk with him?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

So it's not worth the risk with him?

Hard to put faith that a QB will be the franchise QB your seeking, that the offense will revolve around, when he's never been that guy.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Hard to put faith that a QB will be the franchise QB your seeking, that the offense will revolve around, when he's never been that guy.

2yr starter (29 games as a starter)
197ypg
22TDs in '22
22TDs in '23
1.5TDs per game
9 total INTs

Coming out of a run heavy offense plus an ACL tear doesn't warrant giving Minny a 2nd rounder or even a 3rd rounder.