2021-2022 Mariners offseason/free agency thread

[seahawksfan234]

I guess don’t quote me 100% but I recall John Clayton explaining the NFL rigged their system in order to not ever give out fully guaranteed contracts. I truly don’t know how it works in MLB but it doesn’t seem to be the exact same thing because of how much money every off-season owners spend and the little bit I heard about the Rangers situation with the owners bankruptcy with ARod’s contract.

I totally get your bringing up Moneyball. A. I don’t think it actually works but B. I wish the Mariners would pick a lane, either go Moneyball or spend. Maybe that is the quality that they like in Jerry is he has a plan unless Bavasi and Jack Z. I just hate the plan of not spending, but to be fair, the Ray deal would be bigger had there not been a lockout. Getting the reigning Cy Young winner is a big coup but we were all led to believe by Jerry he would be landing Semien or Bryant and while a Cy Young pitcher is amazing it doesn’t matter if the offense is only slightly upgraded because I can’t see anyway the bullpen will replicate last season.

Problem with wanting to save money for Kelenic, Gilbert, Julio and hopefully two other young guys who hit big though is yes they will cost a fortune if they live up to their potential (plus also resigning Crawford, France and now Winker) but with Jerry’s lack of attracting any offense players to Seattle what hope should anyone have of them wanting to resign?

It would make sense if the NFL was set up that way. Owners/front offices have a massive amount of incentive to minimize the amount of guaranteed money in a contract given the fact that a player's career could literally end on one play. Plus with the salary cap, NFL teams could become completely hamstringed if they tie up a ton of money in a player whose career has ended.

The way I see the Moneyball approach is to try to identify players who can be obtained for less than their actual value on the field. I think that is fine, but that approach will only work if you're also willing to spend on tier-1 players. In other words, you're going to have to overpay to get a star. You can make up for that by finding tier-2 players who will outproduce the money allocated to them. I don't think that just one or the other is a great strategy and the biggest thing is you need to do is just spend your money intelligently.

"What hope should anyone have of them wanting to resign?" Is a good point. I don't think it's that hitters don't want to come here, I think it's that Semien and Bryant outpriced themselves for what ownership wanted to pay. For what it's worth, we haven't been buyers looking to add a top-tier hitter on the free agent market for a majority of the time Dipoto has been in Seattle. Maybe I've just actually forgot the last time the Mariners were in a position to be aggressive in adding offense, so I could be wrong there.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I saw it my way of roster argument in terms of Torrens has no role on the team. If Winker can play play 1B then that spot is covered and just running the logical numbers it’s Torrens or Julio, can’t carry both and if I read correctly Torrens doesn’t have options left. And I don’t think any of us thought White has a spot on the team to start the season but for sure now he isn’t going to play for the Mariners this season.

I guess I don't see it that way but then again I don't have the same distain for Torrens.

Torrens vs LHP last year .275/.311/.542
Winker vs LHP last year .177/.288/.284

That is why I don't think one replaces the other because they provide opposite needs. Of course Mariners may feel different.

I actually think Torrens is a guy we could be overlooking.

it's a small sample size, but after he got sent down to AAA he hit pretty well after being called up. In 79 games since being called down he hit .266/.326/.477 with 13 HRs and 41 RBIs. To put that into a bit more perspective, that's 27 HRs and 84 RBIs over 162 games.

The bigger issue is that I just don't see where he would get playing time aside from DH, 1B or C in a pinch. He'd be a lot more valuable if he could sub in for Winker in the outfield versus lefties as Torrens' career BA versus lefties is almost 50 points higher than versus righties.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Super random question for you guys that maybe you guys can fill me in regarding.

I never followed up on this, but I saw that MLB is banning the shift? To what extent?

Shit if that's true, Kyle Seager should come out of retirement. The shift really killed him.

 

[NWinAZ]

I actually think Torrens is a guy we could be overlooking.

it's a small sample size, but after he got sent down to AAA he hit pretty well after being called up. In 79 games since being called down he hit .266/.326/.477 with 13 HRs and 41 RBIs. To put that into a bit more perspective, that's 27 HRs and 84 RBIs over 162 games.

The bigger issue is that I just don't see where he would get playing time aside from DH, 1B or C in a pinch. He'd be a lot more valuable if he could sub in for Winker in the outfield versus lefties as Torrens' career BA versus lefties is almost 50 points higher than versus righties.

He was a 3B coming up with Yankees and worked there last year in practice with M's.

 

[NWinAZ]

Super random question for you guys that maybe you guys can fill me in regarding.

I never followed up on this, but I saw that MLB is banning the shift? To what extent?

Shit if that's true, Kyle Seager should come out of retirement. The shift really killed him.

I don't think it has been finalized and it would not happen until 2023 if so. I personally don't care either way. I think it is dumb to ban just like the NBA not allowing zone defense. But it is what it is.

 

[NWinAZ]

Not that he was ever coming back

 

[wazzu31]

I guess I don't see it that way but then again I don't have the same distain for Torrens.

Torrens vs LHP last year .275/.311/.542
Winker vs LHP last year .177/.288/.284

That is why I don't think one replaces the other because they provide opposite needs. Of course Mariners may feel different.

It isn’t a dislike of Torrens and my bad if that is how it is coming off. I am just doing the roster math, it isn’t Winker vs Torrens it should be Torrens vs JRod. If Winker can play 1B then Torrens is the backup DH and 3rd string catcher and 1B. If JRod doesn’t make the opening day then ok. Just the way I see it there are 2 spots that Torrens, Murphy and JRod are fighting for and Murphy is more versatile in terms a backup. Jerry could get creative and keep all 3 but then has to subtract from the bullpen and IMO that isn’t smart because Munoz and Giles will be on pitch limits.

 

[wazzu31]

It would make sense if the NFL was set up that way. Owners/front offices have a massive amount of incentive to minimize the amount of guaranteed money in a contract given the fact that a player's career could literally end on one play. Plus with the salary cap, NFL teams could become completely hamstringed if they tie up a ton of money in a player whose career has ended.

The way I see the Moneyball approach is to try to identify players who can be obtained for less than their actual value on the field. I think that is fine, but that approach will only work if you're also willing to spend on tier-1 players. In other words, you're going to have to overpay to get a star. You can make up for that by finding tier-2 players who will outproduce the money allocated to them. I don't think that just one or the other is a great strategy and the biggest thing is you need to do is just spend your money intelligently.

"What hope should anyone have of them wanting to resign?" Is a good point. I don't think it's that hitters don't want to come here, I think it's that Semien and Bryant outpriced themselves for what ownership wanted to pay. For what it's worth, we haven't been buyers looking to add a top-tier hitter on the free agent market for a majority of the time Dipoto has been in Seattle. Maybe I've just actually forgot the last time the Mariners were in a position to be aggressive in adding offense, so I could be wrong there.

I don’t hate the Moneyball philosophy but it just hasn’t worked out ever. For some unknown Moneyball gets credited for the Red Sox WS titles but they had 2 of the best SP, the best LF, best DH, great C etc. Talent always trumps Moneyball. An analogy with Moneyball is Gonzaga basketball. Both have great philosophies but both have huge hills to overcome to win the big one.

The A’s have a great farm system that brings them up for a couple of years, round out those rosters with the new analytics numbers, don’t win then get a boat load of prospects back when it implodes. I could see the Moneyball aspect of the Winker/Suarez deal because they are trying to replace Seager season plus they massively upgraded from Moore and Toro at 2B. So without question the offense is upgraded but let’s say Crawford, Haniger and France continue there are still unknowns in Lewis, Kelenic, JRod and Raleigh. It is just a huge unknown because the offense could up in the same spot as last year but if Kelenic, Raleigh and Lewis return to their baseball cards and JRod is who has been then it will be a top offense in baseball we just don’t know.

I could get your argument if Jerry could’ve attracted one position player but he hasn’t. It may be Stanton or Jerry just being a condescending prick when he talks with other agents. I would pay money to watch Jerry try to negotiate with Boras though.

I don’t think Semien or Bryant priced themselves out, IMO the Mariners just went cheap. The Rangers and Rockies have been trash and Seattle reports the money was similar whatever that means. Both deals are for the window the Mariners have right now before the younger guys get paid. It’s just frustrating it you look at the whole situation, with the money they had to spend, their top farm system leads to big splashes. They got Ray basically on a 3 year deal, Kelenic and JRod wont get paid for essentially 5 years. A Semien, Bryant or Story contracts would be at the tale end of that window.

 

[wazzu31]

Not that he was ever coming back

Just a question, how much better would the offense be with Crawford at SS and Marte at 2B. Segura for Walker was a straight up trade until Jerry wanted Haniger and even then he should’ve been able to give up someone less that Marte.

 

[NWinAZ]

It isn’t a dislike of Torrens and my bad if that is how it is coming off. I am just doing the roster math, it isn’t Winker vs Torrens it should be Torrens vs JRod. If Winker can play 1B then Torrens is the backup DH and 3rd string catcher and 1B. If JRod doesn’t make the opening day then ok. Just the way I see it there are 2 spots that Torrens, Murphy and JRod are fighting for and Murphy is more versatile in terms a backup. Jerry could get creative and keep all 3 but then has to subtract from the bullpen and IMO that isn’t smart because Munoz and Giles will be on pitch limits.

Well roster increase to 28 from 26 until May 1st. Then after May 1st you can only keep 13 pitchers on your roster. If JRod plays CF, then I would think it would down to Torrens and the extra outfielder.

 

[NWinAZ]

Currently ranked 22nd.

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[wazzu31]

Well roster increase to 28 from 26 until May 1st. Then after May 1st you can only keep 13 pitchers on your roster. If JRod plays CF, then I would think it would down to Torrens and the extra outfielder.

But you don’t think it still is better to use the extra spots on pitchers? My whole point is moot if JRod doesn’t make the opening day roster but the more arms the better because they will have for sure 2 bullpen arms on pitch counts and most likely 2 starters who will be on pitch counts.

 

[NWinAZ]

But you don’t think it still is better to use the extra spots on pitchers? My whole point is moot if JRod doesn’t make the opening day roster but the more arms the better because they will have for sure 2 bullpen arms on pitch counts and most likely 2 starters who will be on pitch counts.

If you are talking Opening Day where rosters are expanded, yes of course. If talking May 1st when things go back to normal, then they have no choice. 13 pitchers max.

 

[NWinAZ]

The Kelenic talk has been quiet this year from M's. I know JRod is taking over the hype, but Kelenic seems like a forgotten man right now. Maybe that is the best thing for him.

 

[wazzu31]

If you are talking Opening Day where rosters are expanded, yes of course. If talking May 1st when things go back to normal, then they have no choice. 13 pitchers max.

Even expanded rosters, to me, it makes more sense to expand the rotation and bullpen arms. If all things are the same Torrens gets waived by May 1st to cut the roster to 26 right? Again I’m not shitting on the guy I just think saving arms is better for the team than a guy who IMO has zero role on the team.

 

[NWinAZ]

So Opening Day Roster:

C- Raleigh
1B- France
2B- Frazier
3B- Suarez
SS- Crawford
LF- Kelenic
CF- JRod
RF- Haniger
DH- Winker
Bench- Murphy - Torrens - Toro - Moore

SP- Ray - Gilbert - Gonzo - Flexen - Brash
RP- Castillo - Giles - Munoz - Romo - Sewald - Steckenrider - Ramirez - Misiewicz - Swanson - Mills

May 1st Roster:

Same minus Swanson & Mills

After May 1st and when Lewis is healthy:

Same as Opening Day Minus Swanson - Mills - I don't know which hitter.

 

[NWinAZ]

Even expanded rosters, to me, it makes more sense to expand the rotation and bullpen arms. If all things are the same Torrens gets waived by May 1st to cut the roster to 26 right? Again I’m not shitting on the guy I just think saving arms is better for the team than a guy who IMO has zero role on the team.

You have to cut pitchers down to 13 total on May 1st so I don't think Torrens is an issue until Lewis is healthy.

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]