2019 Pirates

[thedddd]

Now that is a first big league hit. And right after lightning in the background.

 

[psaboy]

It looks like Marte wont be on the IL to long, hopefully just the minimum 10 days. That is still our top 4 OFers on the IL, yikes

I heard that Lyles got ball hit on right hand on a "come back" hope that isn't issue in future??

 

[thedddd]

I heard that Lyles got ball hit on right hand on a "come back" hope that isn't issue in future??

Marte bruised his abdomen will be back soon. The initial report was a knee thankfully that wasn't the case.
Gonzalez out on the 60 day DL with the broken collarbone is a blessing since it forced the Pirates to use Tucker.
Lyles is fine, was throwing today and still not reported to miss a start.

 

[steelparrot]

Marte bruised his abdomen will be back soon. The initial report was a knee thankfully that wasn't the case.
Gonzalez out on the 60 day DL with the broken collarbone is a blessing since it forced the Pirates to use Tucker.
Lyles is fine, was throwing today and still not reported to miss a start.

I think Tucker came up soon enough so that he gets credit for the whole year if he stays up, so they are going to send him back down for a couple weeks at some point.

I can suffer Newman at SS for 2 weeks if it means we get tucker for + 1 year. I just hope they dont try to avoid super 2 as well(thats about a 2 month send down).

 

[thedddd]

I think Tucker came up soon enough so that he gets credit for the whole year if he stays up, so they are going to send him back down for a couple weeks at some point.

I can suffer Newman at SS for 2 weeks if it means we get tucker for + 1 year. I just hope they dont try to avoid super 2 as well(thats about a 2 month send down).

If the OF is at full health I think that is doable and Newman can just hit 8th. Nothing against Martin/Reynolds/Shuck but with that OF kills their offense.

 

[psaboy]

Man the wheels feel off quickly last night. I understand that AZ has now won 7 straight at PNC.

 

[steelparrot]

Man the wheels feel off quickly last night. I understand that AZ has now won 7 straight at PNC.

Looks like Reynolds is our IL move tommorow.....

 

[thedddd]

Looks like Reynolds is our IL move tommorow.....

Same with Burdi. Stinks since he looked promising this year.

 

[psaboy]

Man, something seems off on this series with AZ. Can't put my finger on this, maybe they were getting a bit too confident, 9 wins of 12 vs lower teams in ML this year (Cincy, Det & SF) may be giving false hope?

 

[Diamondeye]

They've now lost 6 straight, with about as ugly a run differential a team can possibly have in such a stretch.

The starting pitching is unraveling and Bell continues to be the only hitter producing with any consistency.

I hate to keep bringing it up, but the Pirates may have set themselves back with the Archer trade.

They gave up on Glasnow way too soon.

 

[dare2be]

Can't expect to compete against the Moneybag League teams.

 

[Diamondeye]

Can't expect to compete against the Moneybag League teams.

The Indians, Rays and Brewers are far from Moneybag teams, and they seem to be doing fine.

The Pirates issues stem from incompetence more than anything

 

[thedddd]

^ The Chris Archer trade is proof point. It was all smoke and mirrors and if they really cared that same trade should have happened a few years prior.

It looks like Dickerson and Chisenhall had setbacks on their rehab.

Dickerson-> tightness in his throwing shoulder.
Chisenhall -> new issue tightness in his left calf.

Both were shut down.

 

[redskin4209]

Born and raised in Dallas Tx. Been a Pirate fan over 53 yrs now. This was by first Pirate game I attended and it was 13 rows right behind home plate. Came to the game right when it started which was disappointing b/c I wanted to come early to see I could get some autographs. Anyway this was really an exciting moment for me. They looked really unenthusiastic the first 8 inngs. Cervelli injury looked nasty guys. You could see him in pain at first base.

We out hit the rangers the first 8 inngs but as usual our Pirates can't consistently make timely hits with runners on base. This one of our Achilles heel.Great game good win.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates are so much better a team with Marte than without him. Even a cold Marte has such a major impact in the outfield that he makes the team better.

The Bucs need him to be healthy. Our pitchers yielded a lot of "doubles" in his absence that are likely singles or even outs with Starling patrolling the outfield grass. Once this team is healthy again, I think we'll see them win a good number of games.

Frazier and Marte have also been very unlucky according to Statcast data. Marte's xwOBA is .074 points higher than his actual wOBA, the 8th highest negative differential among all players with at least 50 PA. Adam Frazier is 17th on that list, at -.063 (and regression to his .354 xwOBA would make him a top-70 hitter in all of baseball). Between that, and Polanco getting back used to the Majors, with Bell and Moran (and Reynolds, then Dickerson instead when he's healthy) behind those two, the Bucs should start scoring runs fairly consistently soon. And giving more at bats to Diaz won't hurt, either.

 

[Darkstone42]

All that said, I think this is a year the Pirates should mostly dedicate to seeing what they have in various prospects and getting them used to the Majors. Because if Tucker, Hayes, and Keller work out, the 2020 Bucs will be in a very good position. If Reynolds is actually good like he looks right now, they won't need to bring back Dickerson, either, freeing up money for other things. I'll include not-unreasonable fWAR predictions in parentheses.

A rotation of:

Taillon (4)
Musgrove (4)
Keller (3)
Williams (3)
Archer (3)

would be excellent. Best case, that's like five fringe #1/2 types. At worst it's a #2 and four #3s, still an excellent rotation.

If Burdi and Santana and Kuhl return from injury strong, the bullpen of:

Vazquez (2)
Kela (1)
Burdi (1)
Crick (1)
Santana (1)
Rodriguez (0)
Kuhl (0)

has the potential to be historically good. I think Will Smith is a free agent this upcoming offseason, and with Dickerson coming off the books, they could likely sign Smith and deal Rodriguez to make it even better, and give them two lefties.

I have high hopes for a lineup of:

Tucker SS (2)
Hayes 3B (3)
Polanco RF (3)
Bell 1B (3)
Marte CF (3)
Frazier 2B (2)
Reynolds LF (2)
Diaz C (2)

If they retain Dickerson, he hits between Bell and Marte instead. I think there's plenty of speed, punch, and OBP in that lineup, and it's also plenty deep. They have Moran and Craig, too, if the DH comes to the NL, and to start a bench I think could be worth up to 2 WAR. All told, that's a 45 WAR roster, and if you make the typical assumption of about 47 wins for a replacement level team, that's a 92-win roster, without assuming any real breakout performances.

I think the Bucs can win games this year, maybe compete for the playoffs, but properly exposing their top prospects to the league this year, and then adding accordingly in the offseason to support them (a good fourth outfielder, an upgrade at 2B to let Frazier be a supersub again, an impact bullpen signing), that team could win a ton of baseball games and legitimately compete for a World Series.

 

[Diamondeye]

I think the Bucs can win games this year, maybe compete for the playoffs, but properly exposing their top prospects to the league this year, and then adding accordingly in the offseason to support them (a good fourth outfielder, an upgrade at 2B to let Frazier be a supersub again, an impact bullpen signing), that team could win a ton of baseball games and legitimately compete for a World Series.

I like the optimism, but after last night's game, the Pirates now have the 3rd worst run differential in MLB.

It's still somewhat early, but this might be a REALLY bad team that might not be smelling the playoffs, let alone a world series, anytime soon.

Tyler Glasnow is now 6-0, BTW.

 

[thedddd]

Now with Taillon and Archer on the DL wonder if Keller will get the shot?

 

[psaboy]

I like the optimism, but after last night's game, the Pirates now have the 3rd worst run differential in MLB.

It's still somewhat early, but this might be a REALLY bad team that might not be smelling the playoffs, let alone a world series, anytime soon.

Tyler Glasnow is now 6-0, BTW.

And this too:




Austin Meadows RF .351

 

[thedddd]

The Pirates are so much better a team with Marte than without him. Even a cold Marte has such a major impact in the outfield that he makes the team better.

The Bucs need him to be healthy. Our pitchers yielded a lot of "doubles" in his absence that are likely singles or even outs with Starling patrolling the outfield grass. Once this team is healthy again, I think we'll see them win a good number of games.

Frazier and Marte have also been very unlucky according to Statcast data. Marte's xwOBA is .074 points higher than his actual wOBA, the 8th highest negative differential among all players with at least 50 PA. Adam Frazier is 17th on that list, at -.063 (and regression to his .354 xwOBA would make him a top-70 hitter in all of baseball). Between that, and Polanco getting back used to the Majors, with Bell and Moran (and Reynolds, then Dickerson instead when he's healthy) behind those two, the Bucs should start scoring runs fairly consistently soon. And giving more at bats to Diaz won't hurt, either.

Today is case in point. What a great ending.