2019-20 Quest for the cup(The Carter Hart era begins)

[awaz]

I think the Flyers gave up too much for Braun. But I do think it's unfair to compare it to the Subban deal without looking at all the different aspects.

 

[lasgop8]

Blues sign Cup-winning coach Berube to 3-year deal

At least some organizations can see when they have a good thing going.

 

[lasgop8]

I think the Flyers gave up too much for Braun. But I do think it's unfair to compare it to the Subban deal without looking at all the different aspects.

We went out too early with our trades for Nisky which i like and Braun which i hate. Shouldve weighed more options before setteling on them two and also retaining Gudas salary wasn't well thought out. We pre jaculated this off season so far. Definitely needed to weigh our options.

 

[awaz]

I want the season to start. The longer the offseason goes the more I'll worry about them making a stupid Ghost trade. I really do think the seemingly fan-base wide belief that they 'have' to trade a defenseman is overstated. I hope Fletcher doesn't look at it like that.

Now that they're up against the cap, there likely can be no 'trade Ghost for a significant upgrade in the top 6', because the cap space just isn't there. IMO, if they do it now, they'll get peanuts for Ghost and that would be a huge mistake.

If Fletcher gets to September without dealing Ghost, I'll probably consider this offseason relatively successful.

 

[lasgop8]

I want the season to start. The longer the offseason goes the more I'll worry about them making a stupid Ghost trade. I really do think the seemingly fan-base wide belief that they 'have' to trade a defenseman is overstated. I hope Fletcher doesn't look at it like that.

Now that they're up against the cap, there likely can be no 'trade Ghost for a significant upgrade in the top 6', because the cap space just isn't there. IMO, if they do it now, they'll get peanuts for Ghost and that would be a huge mistake.

If Fletcher gets to September without dealing Ghost, I'll probably consider this offseason relatively successful.

Can you put together one of your posts with lines as well as salary next to the player so we can get a gist of the cap room we will have left.

 

[awaz]

Giroux (8.275) - Couturier (4.3) - Konecny (2x3.3)
JvR (7) - Hayes (7.1) - Voracek (8.25)
Lindblom (.925) - Patrick (.925) - Frost (.863)
Raffl (1.6) - Laughton (2x1.7) - Pitlick (1)
Vorobyov (.784)

Provorov (6x6.6) - Niskanen (5.75)
Sanheim (3.25) - Braun (3.8)
Ghost (4.5) - Myers (.68)
Hagg (1.15), Morin (.7)

Hart (.73)
Reimer (3.4)

Gudas (1)
AMAC (1.2)
Schlemko (1.025, assuming he's buried in the AHL)

Using Frost and Vorobyov to fill out the roster. Scratching 1 fwd and 2 d, which is atypical. Would normally do 2 fwd and 1 d. Also added Reimer since there was a rumor out there and wanted to see what it looked like.

With that group, not including the red contract projections, we're at $64.8M.

With that group, including the red contract projections, we're at $79.8M.

I'm going to guess Provorov gets somewhere between 7 and 7.5 though. And IMO it'd be great to get Konecny on something like 5x5. That would take you up to 82.4M though, which is over the 81.5M cap. I expect Fletcher doesn't want to be any more than $80M, save room for some flexibility and any bonus overages. Obviously Reimer isn't a guarantee, but I'm skeptical that Frost is your 3RW solution, which will probably take more $.

 

[lasgop8]

Giroux (8.275) - Couturier (4.3) - Konecny (2x3.3)
JvR (7) - Hayes (7.1) - Voracek (8.25)
Lindblom (.925) - Patrick (.925) - Frost (.863)
Raffl (1.6) - Laughton (2x1.7) - Pitlick (1)
Vorobyov (.784)

Provorov (6x6.6) - Niskanen (5.75)
Sanheim (3.25) - Braun (3.8)
Ghost (4.5) - Myers (.68)
Hagg (1.15), Morin (.7)

Hart (.73)
Reimer (3.4)

Gudas (1)
AMAC (1.2)

Using Frost and Vorobyov to fill out the roster. Scratching 1 fwd and 2 d, which is atypical. Would normally do 2 fwd and 1 d. Also added Reimer since there was a rumor out there and wanted to see what it looked like.

With that group, not including the red contract projections, we're at $63.8M.

With that group, including the red contract projections, we're at $78.8M.

I'm going to guess Provorov gets somewhere between 7 and 7.5 though. And IMO it'd be great to get Konecny on something like 5x5. That would take you up to 81.4M though, which is too close for comfort. I expect Fletcher doesn't want to be any more than $80M, save room for some flexibility and any bonus overages. Obviously Reimer isn't a guarantee, but I'm skeptical that Frost is your 3RW solution, which will probably take more $.

Does Justin Bailey figure into this in anyway? or Schlemko?

 

[raptorlife4]

We need a solid backup goalie. Cant depend on just Hart.

 

[awaz]

Does Justin Bailey figure into this in anyway? or Schlemko?

No Justin Bailey.

Good timing on the question. Flyers extended Qualifying Offers to Provorov, Konecny, Laughton, and Aube-Kubel just now. They did not qualify Bailey which means he will go UFA.

Schlemko I did forget about, I'll edit the original post so it's correct. But they can only bury 1.075M of his 2.1M contract.

 

[raptorlife4]

Hartman wasnt qualified by Dallas making him a UFA
We must have like Pilick

 

[awaz]

Hartman wasnt qualified by Dallas making him a UFA
We must have like Pilick

And they must not have? Basically gave him to the Flyers.

 

[purdue81]

This weighs in to it too. How many teams wanted to add that personality, had the cap space, and had 2019-20 season goals that would lead them to bid on Subban?

Contrast that with how many teams could add Braun for 1 season.

Nashville was probably looking at what, 2-3 buyers? SJ might've had 15 looking to add Braun.

Sooooo..... this dumbass Boilermaker might actually have had a point in not wanting Subban at any price

 

[lasgop8]

Excellent article in general. The comparison between the Subban trade and what Myers is rumored to be getting is perfect.

I do think he underestimates the cap situations a bit in comparing the Subban trade to the Braun trade though. Even if the Flyers did give up too much for him. The Braun deal has essentially 0 risk to it for the Flyers. It takes up a modest amount of space this year and is off next year. Subban is 9M for 3 years, if he doesn't bounce back that's a very ugly and probably difficult to move (as a 31, 32 year old) contract. Those are pretty dramatically different cap situations.

Excellent article in general. The comparison between the Subban trade and what Myers is rumored to be getting is perfect.

I do think he underestimates the cap situations a bit in comparing the Subban trade to the Braun trade though. Even if the Flyers did give up too much for him. The Braun deal has essentially 0 risk to it for the Flyers. It takes up a modest amount of space this year and is off next year. Subban is 9M for 3 years, if he doesn't bounce back that's a very ugly and probably difficult to move (as a 31, 32 year old) contract. Those are pretty dramatically different cap situations.

You say what if PK doesn't bounce back but how about if he does bounce back? So when you say zero risk im assuming your taking into account that there will be zero reward, especially when we gave up a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for him. Those picks could've been packaged to get us an impact player.

 

[lasgop8]

Sooooo..... this dumbass Boilermaker might actually have had a point in not wanting Subban at any price

at any price? Really at any price??

 

[lasgop8]

This weighs in to it too. How many teams wanted to add that personality, had the cap space, and had 2019-20 season goals that would lead them to bid on Subban?

Contrast that with how many teams could add Braun for 1 season.

Nashville was probably looking at what, 2-3 buyers? SJ might've had 15 looking to add Braun.

Where did you get these numbers of teams that were looking at each player??

 

[lasgop8]

10 Notes: Day 1 of Development Camp

 

[purdue81]

at any price? Really at any price??

We've established I'm not a "Hockey Guy".... but I've made a living at developing high performing teams...... and I've lived through how much damage a superstar can do if they are a disruption and distraction. So YES, at ANY price

 

[awaz]

You say what if PK doesn't bounce back but how about if he does bounce back? So when you say zero risk im assuming your taking into account that there will be zero reward, especially when we gave up a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for him. Those picks could've been packaged to get us an impact player.

I agree with the bold. And would have preferred that.

All I'm saying is, given the players, situation, and contracts; I can understand the trade values being fairly close between acquiring Braun and acquiring Subban.

 

[lasgop8]

Frost toys with a few goalies, another Briere, York's Gritty quote, and more on Flyers

Carson Brierre might be my new favorite Flyer.

 

[awaz]

Where did you get these numbers of teams that were looking at each player??

Pulled them out of thin air.

But it's based on reality. Nashville has all but confirmed they made the move because NJ took the full salary and didn't send much back. They want to spend on UFAs (Duchene). Taking that in to account, Vegas, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Washington, Tampa, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, Montreal, Toronto, San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg and St. Louis can't afford Sbban when you take in to account the guys they have to re-sign. 16 teams out. I'm not sure what Colorado is up to, but they only have 13 guys signed for next year at this point, so they may not be able to afford him either. Ottawa, LA, and Anaheim are rebuilding, what need do they have for a 30 year old, $9M guy?

So already you're already down to 11 teams just from a cap perspective. How many of those want to allocate $9M to a top 4 RHD?

Carolina is rumored to be possibly dealing one of their RHD because they have a surplus with Hamilton, Faulk, and Pesce. Scratch them off.

Columbus has Jones and Werenski anchoring their top pair. It would be pretty weird asset management to spend $9M on a 2nd pair guy. Scratch them off.

Florida has Ekblad to be their #1 RHD. They also have Yandle who is a similar player at 6.35. Maybe they move for Subban, but they're also one of favorites to land both Panarin and Bob. See ya cap space. Scratch them off.

Rangers just traded for Trouba to be their #1 RHD. And before signing Trouba they've already got 4 dmen over $4M. They'll have 4 over $5M after signing Trouba. Scratch them off.

The Islanders were the best defensive team in hockey last year and Trotz is a defense first guy. Maybe he goes against the grain and likes Subban, but I highly doubt it. I scratch them off too.

So even before considering Subban's character, I'm down to 6 teams. Maybe even 5 depending on Colorado's situation. If I were Minnesota I would count them out as well. Suter, Dumba, Spurgeon, and Brodin is a great top 4. But Fenton is an idiot, so who knows what he would and wouldn't do.

So there's a pretty plausible, IMO, route to 4 potential landing spots for Subban. Braun's $3.8M brings at least half of those top 16 in to play and probably a few of the others who don't need a top end guy, but could use depth.