2019-20 Quest for the cup(The Carter Hart era begins)

[lasgop8]

How many teams will be bidding on Duchesne? Do you guy's really believe that Philly was his top choice and he wasn't considering someone else? Word is Trouba said New York is the only place he'd resign and would sit until December. How are these viable options. Should the GM just sit there and do nothing if he has no chance of signing either one? What about some of the younger players perhaps they improve and another makes the team this year like Frost. Lots of unknowns but if the Blues can win a cup so can Philly...

Young players like if Patrick improves enough to be a number two center this season then you are paying your third line center 7.1 million for 6 more years. that would lead to the question what do we pay Patrick next year when he is an RFA.

 

[lasgop8]

Flyers acquire Justin Braun from San Jose

Some analytic numbers on Braun that aren't too flattering

 

[Chris p Bacon]

Flyers acquire Justin Braun from San Jose

Some analytic numbers on Braun that aren't too flattering

Another contract dump we decided we needed lol.

 

[purdue81]

For those with thoughts of offer sheets

Thanks for this... i've been schooled. Seriously.. I missed this in the thoughts on Point

 

[raptorlife4]

Thanks for this... i've been schooled. Seriously.. I missed this in the thoughts on Point

This is actually the correct info.

 

[lasgop8]

Ok boys i'm off to Florida. Enjoy the draft !!!!

Let's go Flyers!!!!!!

 

[raptorlife4]

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Also nobody was coveting Hayes that hard either, was a bone head move by Fletcher.

That's false as Winnipeg wanted him but simply couldn't afford the price. They flat out said on sportsnet that 7 M is his FA value. I'm sure duchesne will be a lot higher with all of the interested parties out there. Philly could not pick and choose exactly who they wanted. Not saying I love Hayes but I understand the predicament. Either way the teams far better today than last month. Way more experience especially on D. PK should be a lot better too.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Young players like if Patrick improves enough to be a number two center this season then you are paying your third line center 7.1 million for 6 more years. that would lead to the question what do we pay Patrick next year when he is an RFA.

Good problem to have no? We all know that RFA is different than FA and so do the players. Patrick will eventually get his money we all hope but it's not happening next year could be 3-5 years from now now and the situation will be a lot different at that point. This is a sign that they want to win now and they will be adding some more talented youth along the way to fill the holes....cheaply for that matter. Love to see Frost, Farabee, etc..come up in the next few years bolstering this lineup.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Another contract dump we decided we needed lol.

Braun won't be asked to be an MVP just a steady vet dman. He played a lot of minutes in the playoffs and did well when it counted. Sharks wouldn't have moved him if they didn't have to. Dmen are too valuable...

 

[awaz]

So, a couple things to add now that I've got a chance to post again!

1. I don't like the Hayes contract, but I do think it was necessary.

2. Market price isn't set by you, me, the Flyers or Hayes. The minute Brock Nelson signed a $6M x 6 year contract, everyone in hockey knew Hayes would be getting significantly more. That's how it works. We're bent out of shape because Hayes hasn't scored more than 55 points, Nelson has never scored more than 45! Nelson signed for 6x6, some team was going to offer Hayes more than 6x6. Would it get up to 7x7? maybe, maybe not, but it's not completely out of the ball park. Hayes knew he could sit and wait until someone offered him more. The Flyers paid the extra to ensure they filled the 2C hole. Because if it wasn't for him, it was trade assets for a 2C and weaken yourself elsewhere or...

3. For those saying they should have signed Duchene instead. Look at the cap projection chy posted. With Hayes at 7x7, re-signing the RFAs that are critical (Provorov, Sanheim, TK) is starting to get tight. You think it's uncomfortable now, how are they going to re-sign those guys if they sign Duchene for $10M/yr? I was on the sign Duchene bandwagon at the beginning of the summer, but with the Niskanen and Braun additions it would've been very difficult to add Duchene and keep the RFA's. Fletcher's assessment, which I agree with, was that the Flyers aren't broken, they just need to add more talent.

Maybe there's another combination out there that would've been more ideal. Maybe they do the Niskanen move, but not the Braun move, and sign Duchene instead of Hayes. Is the team better under those conditions? Probably. But this isn't a fantasy draft, the Flyers don't look like they're in the running for Duchene for whatever reason. Same for Panarin.

Fletcher went out and addressed the major holes the team had:
1. 2C - added Hayes
2. Atrocious PK - added Hayes, Niskanen, Braun, and will have Hart full time next year
3. Lacked leadership - Added 250+ playoff games of experience and a cup
4. Needed to bolster a weak defense - Added Niskanen and Braun
5. Add a 3W - only thing missing

To me, he checked off every box (except the least important one) and he did it without moving a 1st round pick, any of the young NHL players, or any of the top end prospects. I have a very hard time getting mad at him for that. IMO, he drastically improved this team for next year. Is it enough to win a Cup? Maybe, maybe not. We can't determine that today. But IMO, there's a path to Cup contention with this roster. I think there's enough talent now. There's enough leadership. There's enough balance. The goaltending should be there. There's always a lot of ifs involved though. If Ghost returns to a 65pt caliber dman. If Provorov returns to being a high-level #1 dman. If Patrick takes a step forward. If Sanheim takes a step forward.

But I see a path to contention, I really do. They have a stud 1C. They have an elite point producing winger (potentially 2 or 3 of them). They have guys that have played at a high-end top pair level in Provorov and Ghost. They have a potential superstar goalie. They have a coach with a track record of success (and assistants that have been there too). They have veteran leadership that can actually play hockey too. And with these moves, they have some depth. There's no Lehtera, Vandevelde, Bellamare, Filpula, Weise, Knight, AMac, or Bailey garbage filling out the bottom of the lineup. Now it's Braun, Laughton, Raffl, Hagg, Ghost, Patrick, type players filling out the bottom of the roster. That's a huge difference.

 

[awaz]

I'm concerned about the cap in the future. Hayes is a lot of money. But Niskanen and Braun are short term. AMac's buyout is short term. Gudas' retention is short term. Next summer Myers, Patrick and Lindblom are the RFAs up. They haven't proven nearly enough to warrant big RFA deals to this point, so if we're panicking next summer that means they had breakout years this year.

​

If they're breaking the bank as RFAs a year from now, we're going to have a lot of fun between now and then. And the big improvements in the next couple of years should come from within, with Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffe coming up. Plus the continued development of a still very young backbone of your d-group in Sanheim, Provorov, and Myers.

 

[awaz]

If Fletcher stops right now where he is, I would be content with the offseason and excited for next year. Not "blown-away pumped", but excited. I think he's improved the team and hasn't gutted the future. He's made the cap a little murkier moving forward, but the prospect pool and cadre of young players is still in tact.

My only concern is the same as my primary concern coming in to this summer. Do NOT trade Ghost for something stupid. The one rumor that's out there is something around Ghost for Ehlers. I could possibly tolerate something like that. Another young player, coming off a bit of a down year, signed to a somewhat reasonable contract (if he rebounds). Ehlers would be a potential high point producer on the wing, primarily a goal scorer. I covet a goal scorer as much as the next guy, but I kind of like the way the D looks with this group. It's a deep, balanced group and I could see all 6 of the projected starters logging top 4 minutes and succeeding. Plus it starts to thin out pretty quick if you trade Ghost, lose Braun and Niskanen in the next 2 years. Then all of a sudden your looking for dmen again.

While Fletcher has added some age to the roster with Hayes, Braun, and Niskanen; he's said all along he's not interested in trading major future pieces (#11 pick primarily) for something that's a rental or a short term thing. And he's stuck to that, he hasn't moved any future pieces. That gives me hope that he wouldn't do something crazy with Ghost. But, who really knows what he'll do..

(I don't count a 2nd round pick this year or a 3rd round pick next year as major future pieces. Future pieces, yes, but the prospect pool is deep and those picks probably wouldn't see the NHL until 2021 or 2022 at the earliest. And honestly the 5th round pick means nothing to me. On the rare chance that it turned in to an NHL player, it'd be as a bottom of the lineup guy in 2023. )

 

[Chris p Bacon]

So, a couple things to add now that I've got a chance to post again!

1. I don't like the Hayes contract, but I do think it was necessary.

2. Market price isn't set by you, me, the Flyers or Hayes. The minute Brock Nelson signed a $6M x 6 year contract, everyone in hockey knew Hayes would be getting significantly more. That's how it works. We're bent out of shape because Hayes hasn't scored more than 55 points, Nelson has never scored more than 45! Nelson signed for 6x6, some team was going to offer Hayes more than 6x6. Would it get up to 7x7? maybe, maybe not, but it's not completely out of the ball park. Hayes knew he could sit and wait until someone offered him more. The Flyers paid the extra to ensure they filled the 2C hole. Because if it wasn't for him, it was trade assets for a 2C and weaken yourself elsewhere or...

3. For those saying they should have signed Duchene instead. Look at the cap projection chy posted. With Hayes at 7x7, re-signing the RFAs that are critical (Provorov, Sanheim, TK) is starting to get tight. You think it's uncomfortable now, how are they going to re-sign those guys if they sign Duchene for $10M/yr? I was on the sign Duchene bandwagon at the beginning of the summer, but with the Niskanen and Braun additions it would've been very difficult to add Duchene and keep the RFA's. Fletcher's assessment, which I agree with, was that the Flyers aren't broken, they just need to add more talent.

Maybe there's another combination out there that would've been more ideal. Maybe they do the Niskanen move, but not the Braun move, and sign Duchene instead of Hayes. Is the team better under those conditions? Probably. But this isn't a fantasy draft, the Flyers don't look like they're in the running for Duchene for whatever reason. Same for Panarin.

Fletcher went out and addressed the major holes the team had:
1. 2C - added Hayes
2. Atrocious PK - added Hayes, Niskanen, Braun, and will have Hart full time next year
3. Lacked leadership - Added 250+ playoff games of experience and a cup
4. Needed to bolster a weak defense - Added Niskanen and Braun
5. Add a 3W - only thing missing

To me, he checked off every box (except the least important one) and he did it without moving a 1st round pick, any of the young NHL players, or any of the top end prospects. I have a very hard time getting mad at him for that. IMO, he drastically improved this team for next year. Is it enough to win a Cup? Maybe, maybe not. We can't determine that today. But IMO, there's a path to Cup contention with this roster. I think there's enough talent now. There's enough leadership. There's enough balance. The goaltending should be there. There's always a lot of ifs involved though. If Ghost returns to a 65pt caliber dman. If Provorov returns to being a high-level #1 dman. If Patrick takes a step forward. If Sanheim takes a step forward.

But I see a path to contention, I really do. They have a stud 1C. They have an elite point producing winger (potentially 2 or 3 of them). They have guys that have played at a high-end top pair level in Provorov and Ghost. They have a potential superstar goalie. They have a coach with a track record of success (and assistants that have been there too). They have veteran leadership that can actually play hockey too. And with these moves, they have some depth. There's no Lehtera, Vandevelde, Bellamare, Filpula, Weise, Knight, AMac, or Bailey garbage filling out the bottom of the lineup. Now it's Braun, Laughton, Raffl, Hagg, Ghost, Patrick, type players filling out the bottom of the roster. That's a huge difference.

Sorry man, love your optimism but I'll check in on you about half way through the season when we are where we were last year.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Agreed Awaz that was basically my point in Cole's notes version. He basically set the team up now to make the playoffs. If they look great heading in they may go for it with a trade deadline upgrade. Hopefully not needed as young players step up but even Boston added guys like coyle to get them there...

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Sorry man, love your optimism but I'll check in on you about half way through the season when we are where we were last year.

So you don't believe that the younger players will improve? That Hart won't be ready from the start? Hayes won't help their overall depth? The vet dmen won't help the young ones progress and help the PK? Of course anything can happen injuries etc...but overall they should be a lot better.

 

[Chris p Bacon]

So you don't believe that the younger players will improve? That Hart won't be ready from the start? Hayes won't help their overall depth? The vet dmen won't help the young ones progress and help the PK? Of course anything can happen injuries etc...but overall they should be a lot better.

Ok let me put it this way, as a fan I'm tired of better. NONE of the acqired players we went out and got puts in position to vie for a cup. Everyone is so fuckin high on Hayes and this guy is what? I'm not going to try and convince you and Awaz or anybody else he sucks but if you guys are cool with an upgrade of mediocrity more power to you. Me I'll be rooting for the Av's in the WCF and probably the cup so next season wont be a total waste. Another 3 year plan coming to fruitation any time now lol.

 

[Chris p Bacon]

Also as a side note, if players like Niskanin and Braun were brought in to sokidify a young D corp, and they aren't long term, why in Gods name damn near break the bank on Hayes? You could have done like Williams or Pavalski at 2-3 at a much lower rate IMO and you can now add Corey Perry to that list. IDK man I just don't see these 3 signings as anything more as another bridge to a 3 year plan etc...

 

[wbon22]

Awaz - great stuff.

I think that aspects of the Flyers will be improved simply by the change in head coach and assistants. Adding Hayes (an AV veteran who can help translate the system to the locker room), Niskanen and Braun (both right handed/natural right side defensemen) all make small picture aspects better.

Sanheim will move back to the left side. That would mean each pairing of left/right (suck on it Babcock).
Provy and Niskanen (first choice)
Sanheim and Myers
Ghost and Braun

This is assuming that either Sanheim or Ghost aren't moved. Why do I pick on them? I don't want them moved but they are the assets with the greatest value that could bring the highest return.

The Flyers still need a winger. They need to make serious steps to fill out the fourth line.
They need a 2nd goalie.

Steps have been taken and they could very well be in the right direction. We will just have to wait and see.

 

[awaz]

Also as a side note, if players like Niskanin and Braun were brought in to sokidify a young D corp, and they aren't long term, why in Gods name damn near break the bank on Hayes? You could have done like Williams or Pavalski at 2-3 at a much lower rate IMO and you can now add Corey Perry to that list. IDK man I just don't see these 3 signings as anything more as another bridge to a 3 year plan etc...

You think adding Justin Williams and Corey Perry is better than what they did? Or something more than ‘adding mediocrity’? Williams is what they did in different packaging (vet depth fwd instead of d). The Ducks are taking a $2M cap hit for 4 years to get Perry not to play for them. He scored more points than Hayes did last year one time since 2013. Pavelski might be an upgrade on what they did, but he’s probably not a realistic option because he’s just going to resign in SJ. And let’s wait til his contract comes out before we say he’s definitely better.

I can understand wanting them to improve by a larger amount. But those options aren’t it. Not even close. Perry is a scrub at this point in his career. And I like Williams, but he’s marginally different than what they did.