2018 NBA offseason

[WiggyRuss]

You do realize there are about 10 teams in the West who can win 48 games right?

i think that is a ludicrous statment. Last year 6 teams in the West won 48 games.

and that was with teams tanking that are unlikely to tank this year like the Kings, Suns, Mavs, Grizzlies, - all who should be improved, all who will not be tanking this year.

And with the East improved- those teams cannot just feast off the East.

Ill make any reasonable bet with you that 47 wins gets you a playoff spot in the West.

 

[WiggyRuss]

No it isn't.

As bks pointed out, it may take 50 wins to reach the playoffs in the West.

very very very doubtful considering that, i dont see one team in the West that will be tanking going into the season which is EXCEEDINGLY rare, and that the East is much improved and wont just be pushed over by west teams.

 

[bksballer89]

i think that is a ludicrous statment. Last year 6 teams in the West won 48 games.

and that was with teams tanking that are unlikely to tank this year like the Kings, Suns, Mavs, Grizzlies, - all who should be improved, all who will not be tanking this year.

And with the East improved- those teams cannot just feast off the East.

Ill make any reasonable bet with you that 47 wins gets you a playoff spot in the West.

You noticed the word can in my statement right?

 

[bksballer89]

Would you be shocked if any of the following teams won 48 games?

Warriors
Rockets
Blazers
Lakers
Thunder
Spurs
Pelicans
Jazz
Nuggets
Wolves (if they get some productive pieces for Butler or if they're stubborn and don't trade Butler)

 

[trojanfan12]

very very very doubtful considering that, i dont see one team in the West that will be tanking going into the season which is EXCEEDINGLY rare, and that the East is much improved and wont just be pushed over by west teams.

I agree re: West teams not tanking. That just hurts your case re: whether or not the Lakers make the playoffs though. It means that, at least vs. the rest of the Western Conference, there will be very few, if any, "gimme" type games.

I disagree with the East being that much improved.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I agree re: West teams not tanking. That just hurts your case re: whether or not the Lakers make the playoffs though. It means that, at least vs. the rest of the Western Conference, there will be very few, if any, "gimme" type games.

I disagree with the East being that much improved.

if there are few "gimme" games that means win totals will not be inflated and that it will be VERY difficult for multiple teams to get to the 48 win plateua.

Same logic applies to the East as well- and whether you like it or not- the East is as deep and as competent as it has been in a long time.

The Raptors, Celtics, Sixers, Pacers, Bucks, are all good teams.

The Heat, Wizards, Pistons, Cavs, Hornets--are all respectable at the very least

The only teams that may be tanking in the East are the Hawks, Knicks, maybe Brooklyn, maybe Orlando,

its exceedingly rare to see so few teams going into the season that are not in tank mode- combined with the fact that tanking has been mitigated at least somewhat due to the evening of lottery odds.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Would you be shocked if any of the following teams won 48 games?

Warriors
Rockets
Blazers
Lakers
Thunder
Spurs
Pelicans
Jazz
Nuggets
Wolves (if they get some productive pieces for Butler or if they're stubborn and don't trade Butler)

i would be absolutely shocked if more than 6 of them did.

The league is too balanced for that many teams to have a prayer of getting to 48 wins. There are very very few truly awful teams, lotto odds have been mitigated, a team like the Kings does not even have incentive to tank anyway since they dont have their pick.

at the beginning of the season i only see 2 truly awful teams in the NBA- the Knicks since Zinger is hurt, and the Hawks. There arent going to be teams that lose 60+ games and inflate win totals.

The math just does not even come close to working out to having 8 teams get to 48 wins in the West, let alone 10.

 

[trojanfan12]

if there are few "gimme" games that means win totals will not be inflated and that it will be VERY difficult for multiple teams to get to the 48 win plateua.

Agree. bks listed teams that can get to 48 wins. That doesn't mean they will. It just means the talent is there.

But again, that's works against your statement re: if the Lakers don't make the playoffs.

The West has more talent in the conference than we have seen before. For the Lakers, it's all going to be about how they start the season. If they start off struggling like the Heat in the first season of the big 3 and the Cavs when Lebron returned, they could dig themselves too big a hole to climb out of.

As for the competent teams in the East, they are competent for the East.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Agree. bks listed teams that can get to 48 wins. That doesn't mean they will. It just means the talent is there.

But again, that's works against your statement re: if the Lakers don't make the playoffs.

The West has more talent in the conference than we have seen before. For the Lakers, it's all going to be about how they start the season. If they start off struggling like the Heat in the first season of the big 3 and the Cavs when Lebron returned, they could dig themselves too big a hole to climb out of.

As for the competent teams in the East, they are competent for the East.

West teams have a 237-213 record over East teams. Not a big gap at all. : nba

on April 10th of last year the West led the East 237-213. That is CERTAINLY not any kind of huge disparity AT ALL. Thats not dick.

thats plus 24

in the 2013-2014 season it was plus 118.

and the East has gotten better from last year.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

You do realize there are about 10 teams in the West who can win 48 games right?

Denver won 46 and missed the playoffs.

Milsap was hurt half the year or they would have won more.

So, yeah...

Not far fetched at all.

 

[bksballer89]

Lebron doesn't seem interested in playing any preseason games

 

[WiggyRuss]

Denver won 46 and missed the playoffs.

Milsap was hurt half the year or they would have won more.

So, yeah...

Not far fetched at all.

like i said- 47 should get you in the playoffs in the West considering the lack of teams tanking, the balance with the East, the revised lotto odds. etc.

win totals are not going to be inflated by really bad tanking teams nearly as much, and win totals in the West will not be inflated by a huge disparity with the East- just as we saw last year.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

like i said- 47 should get you in the playoffs in the West considering the lack of teams tanking, the balance with the East, the revised lotto odds. etc.

win totals are not going to be inflated by really bad tanking teams nearly as much, and win totals in the West will not be inflated by a huge disparity with the East- just as we saw last year.

Maybe.

We are kinda splitting hairs here.

Your prediction is only one game south of the 48 that @bksballer89 is predicting.

 

[trojanfan12]

Lebron doesn't seem interested in playing any preseason games

Not sure that's entirely true. He did say that, at this stage in his career, he doesn't need pre-season games to get ready for the regular season (which is true).

But he also said that he would defer to Luke as far as his pre-season workload.

My guess is that Luke will play him a little bit just to get him time on the floor with his new teammates against other teams. But I'd be surprised if he plays in all of the pre-season games or even plays more than a few first half minutes in any pre-season game.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

Lebron doesn't seem interested in playing any preseason games

Not surprised.

If he gets hurt, the Lakers are Fucked.

Let the cannon fodder fight it out for the last roster spots and the 2 way deals, trim the roster, have the starters play the last few games.

 

[bksballer89]

Not surprised.

If he gets hurt, the Lakers are Fucked.

Let the cannon fodder fight it out for the last roster spots and the 2 way deals, trim the roster, have the starters play the last few games.

I think should play 2 games. Get used to the guys in a real nba game against another team.

If this wasn't his first year with the Lakers then i would agree

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

I think should play 2 games. Get used to the guys in a real nba game against another team.

If this wasn't his first year with the Lakers then i would agree

Yeah, they need to build chemistry.

 

[Bolts]

Would you be shocked if any of the following teams won 48 games?

Warriors
Rockets
Blazers
Lakers
Thunder
Spurs
Pelicans
Jazz
Nuggets
Wolves (if they get some productive pieces for Butler or if they're stubborn and don't trade Butler)

You forgot to add the Kings, don't think anybody would be surprised if they won 48 games.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Maybe.

We are kinda splitting hairs here.

Your prediction is only one game south of the 48 that @bksballer89 is predicting.

what i am saying is that 47 wins should get you in.

I agree with @bksballer89 that any of those indiviudal teams COULD win 48 games- but its mathematically almost impossible that they all win 48 games- and thus drive up the number to make the playoffs to over 48 wins.

Its not going to take 48-50 wins to make the playoffs in the West when even the bad teams are not that bad and wont be tanking, and the disparity with the East is so minimal. the +24 game differential between West and East of last year bbreaks down to less than an extra 2 wins per team in the West.

When you consider all of those things--- and when you consider that even "bad" teams like the Grizz, Suns, Bulls, Magic etc. will at least be trying for the vast majority of the year after having lost so many years in a row and having accumulated talent- its hard for me to believe that so many teams will approach 50 wins.

I will be surprised if 47 wins does not get you a playoff spot in the West this year. If a team with an assumed healthy LeBron (if he is injured all bets are off of course) does not get to 47 wins- after the moves they made gambling on guys like Rondo, KCP, Beasley, Stephenson, etc.- it will be rather humiliating and a repudiation of these offseason moves that have been questioned so much by everyone on the outside.

 

[shopson67]

You forgot to add the Kings, don't think anybody would be surprised if they won 48 games.

Wait, were we talking year or decade? I'm confused...