2017 Chicago Bears Season Predictions

[richig07]

1970-2015 saw 472 playoff teams. 38 of them with a minus-point differential.

Meaning, 8% of playoff teams had a minus point differential.

According to @Ice_nine 8% = littered

This would pretty clearly make up some of the worst post-season teams of all-time.

Then, on top of the point differential... taking into account the fact that Detroit scored all of 6 points and was embarrassed in their WC game.

Taking into account their average opponent's 6.333 victories in games they won... and their average margin of victory of 5.0 points in those victories.

Taking into account them have sub-par/bottom-half numbers in every relevant team aspect of team football.

Taking into account that they didn't have to beat a single post-season team, in order to reach the post-season. Along with only one team who had a winning record, 9-7 playoff-less Redskins.

We can safely assume, that they were INCREDIBLY fortunate to win 9 games and reach the post-season.

It would be hard to argue, that they were not a bottom half team in football last season. While much easier to argue they came in around the bottom 10.

That's pretty much all she wrote...

 

[richig07]

hey appreciate you finding this, some good info. 38 teams. So most years at least one. OK, you are right, I was "lying when I said the Seahawks had 100. It was actually 97. That was from memory. Boy you sure busted me good. Have another drink, my friend.

You weren't lying about the 100 points. You were lying about the league being "littered" with this occurring. 8% of teams have reached the post-season with a negative point differential.

Also, where did I claim this never happens?

This is an epic meltdown. You are now reduced to creating straw-man arguments, due to getting absolutely obliterated.

You cannot even mount an argument, other than 8% of post-season teams having a minus differential. That's literally the best you have so far.

This is epic as fuck. lol

 

[richig07]

what's the saying. If at first you don't succeed try and try again? I guess you should try again. This time, it might even work! Don't forget another cocktail!

Cheers buddy. I'm not going to tell you that your mother should be fucked or some of the other completely outrageous things you have said to me just because you are losing an argument. I'm just going to wish you another merry drink.

Bahahaha... How embarrassing!

Look at him. He can't refute anything.

I think this is the last we'll see of Ice around these parts.

 

[richig07]

@Ice_nine

See you around!

 

[Ice_nine]

This is an epic meltdown.

well, on that we agree. More whiskey for you hombre.

 

[richig07]

38 teams. So most years at least one

Boy @Ice_nine likes to spin facts his way, and blatantly lie. Let's observe this statement, and where it takes us. Pertaining to the 2016 Detroit Lions among the league's worst ever playoff teams.

First, what we'll notice. Is that a lot of these happened within the same season. Why? Because generally bad teams getting into the playoffs, comes as a result of a poor conference or a conference with no depth beyond a few teams. A handful even had records of .500 or worse. Which would, of course, tend to lend itself to a negative point differential.

SIX of these, came during the 1982 strike shortened season. Where only 9 games were played, and the playoffs were expanded.

One more came from the year of the replacement players, and a season shortened by one game in 1987.

In fact, these 38 teams have come as a result of just 23 seasons. Not the majority of seasons, as Ice would lead us to believe. However, those fighting a losing argument, will tend to lie.

So, we have a combined seven from strike shortened seasons. Which six got in with expanded post-season, in a season with only 9 games. The other played in a season featuring replacements for a period of time.

9 additional teams, winning no more than 8 games. (Only 5 of these teams, won 10 games)

4 additional, came from conferences where a team with a record of 8 wins or less made the post-season.

So, TWENTY (the majority) of these teams either got in during expanded post-season and/or strike shortened replacement season. Got in with 8 wins or less, or... were in a conference so weak, that their competition for playoff positioning. Was only with teams who finished with 8 wins or less.

I think we can all agree... 8 wins to get in, expanded post-season, strike shortened season, replacement players... These are out of the ordinary occurrences, and it's not such a surprise that in these circumstances some sub-par teams may teams may get in.

These are generally what is required to reach the post-season with a negative differential. As mentioned, only 5 had double-digit wins.

I would probably venture to say that calling a team to win a playoff game, one of "the worst post-season teams" of all-time. It's a bit of a silly notion, no? Which takes out a good chunk of teams. Especially teams like the Packers, who missed Rodgers half of the year. Seahawks who missed Hasselbeck... etc... Which was largely responsible for that point dip.

You're really only leaving the Lions, with a rag-tag group of 8 win teams... and teams from strike seasons to compete with for the "worst post-season team of all-time" title.

Then, you factor in who they beat, and how slim a margin they beat them by. Where they rank among the league, every team facet of the game. How badly they were trounced in the post-season.

There is a very real argument here. They're certainly are one of the worst.

What's amazing, is that this point differential stuff is merely a small part of the argument which tells us the tale of what a sub-par team they were.

 

[richig07]

well, on that we agree. More whiskey for you hombre.

The "you're drunk" tactic doesn't work when the other guy is doing 100% of the leg work... and you have yet to bring a single fact to the table. Not to mention, have yet to throw anything around besides baseless insults.

You see, I bring the facts to the table... the insults don't work when A) you're wrong... and B) without numbers and facts. Try to keep up.

You still have nothing... So funny.

Literally, your best point, is that a small group of teams have gotten in with a minus point differential. While the majority of them are from a strike shortened season (with an expanded post-season), replacement player seasons or had 7-8 wins.

Good company there Ice! Quite the foundation built up for an argument.

Not to mention, you still have not addressed anything else. Oh, and you're blatant lying.

Shine-box... fucking... shine-box.

Put some SEMBLANCE of a point together, or go get it.

 

[richig07]

@Ice_nine

One time. Let's just hear your actual counter argument.

2016 Detroit Lions: Worst Playoff Team Ever? One of?

The case:

Record: 9-7

Average season wins by opponents beaten: 6.333

Average margin of victory: 5.0

OFFENSIVELY: They were 20th in points for. 21st in yardage.

DEFENSIVELY: 13th in points against. 18th in yardage.


Against playoff teams: 0-5 (0-6 including playoff loss)... Lost two by multiple scores (NYG/DAL)... Trailed other three (GB x2 and HOU) by multiple scores until the final two minutes. Average margin of loss = 8 points. (Also lost by 20 to Seattle in WC round)


Tied at 19th in the league with a turnover margin per game at -0.1.


A -13 point differential.... good for 20th in the league

They had the 24th ranked strength of schedule


Was called back TD on a holding call away from being swept by the 3-13 Bears


They had a minus 1.40 SRS, which combines a teams strength of schedule and point differential to weigh a team versus the rest of the league. -1.40 puts their value only ahead of Cleveland, SF, Chicago, Jacksonville, New York and the LA Rams.


They had easily the worst strength of victory, among any team .500 or better. (Couldn't find this for losing teams)



They won only one game by two scores (Saints 28-13) and trailed in the 4th quarter of every other win.

PLAYOFFS:

26-6 loss in the WC round to Seattle

Out-possessed 38 minutes to 22 minutes

Out-Gained 387-231

Seattle 1st downs 24
Detroit 1st downs 13

I don't know.... If you can do better, here's the list of teams with a minus point differential to make it (2015 and before... couldn't find it updated). However, a good chunk of those 8-8 teams won, and so did both 7 win teams. I don't think anyone would count the damn strike year where the majority of the NFL was let in.

www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4b8ufh/every_team_in_nfl_history_to_make_the_playoffs/?st=j7js4i7t&sh=b77ca682

Everything about the 2016 Detroit Lions says they should have had a draft pick somewhere between 7 and 12. They had an abundance of very fortunate wins versus losing teams. You can continue to marginalize myself, but you cannot marginalize the facts.

I am open to being proved wrong about them being the worst playoff team ever. However, as far as being in the "worst group"??? Unlikely.

 

[Payton]

Wow... Spending WAY too much time arguing about the Detroit freakin' Lions... LOL!

It's funny to me as just last week I was thinking, "You know a team that nobody talks about? The Lions...". I mean that from a fantasy perspective (You get a passing mention of Stafford) or from an analysis standpoint.

The Lions aren't great... The Lions aren't bad... They just, are...

And I'm not sure anyone cares.

 

[Yo Tee]

Gotta say Chicago surprised me in Week 1. They looked really good. Glennon surprised me as well. I got high hopes for the Bears. Also, Tarik Cohen is the real deal. I went to school with him, he's a beast and week 1 was NO fluke. Steal of the draft in my opinion.

 

[RP-29]

A couple weeks ago I went blindly through the whole NFL schedule and picked a winner of every game. I wound up with 7 wins for da Bears.

Road wins: BAL, NO, MIN
Home wins: CLE, DET, SF, MIN