2016-17 NBA Regular Season Thread

[Heatles84]

it definitely doesnt GUARANTEE you anything.

i still think even if you have a top 5 pick the odds are against you

but - lets even be MORE conservative--- lets say- 20% chance a top 5 pick becomes an all star--- and a 4% chance that a non-lotto pick becomes an all star (which is an extremely EXTREMELY high number)

thats at least a 500% increase on finding an all star in the top 5 as opposed to outside the lotto.

Again, you pulled a random figure out of your ass to try and make your case. How did you come to 500%? Break it down. I'm waiting. @bksballer89 just pulled a list of busts that were taken in the lottery the last several years. Where's your list?

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

well the new CBA has made it increasingly more difficult to sign an All star level player- ESPECIALLY a high level all star.

True, but that doesn't make it wrong.
The new CBS is just that, new.

Regardless, Miami will always be a preferred destination, so even if the pool of players decreases, the Heat still has a decent chance.

 

[bksballer89]

Sixers, Thunder and Cavs did. Worked for them.

Thunder and Cavs were not intentionally tanking. They just sucked. There is a difference.

 

[bksballer89]

Thunder and Cavs were not intentionally tanking. They just sucked. There is a difference.

And also how did it work for the sixers? They have won under 20 games the past 3 seasons. Probably going to win under 30 season. 4 seasons of tanking and not getting close to a title? This worked for the Sixers. Where?

They're also about to trade 2 of their lottery picks that they selected while tanking

 

[WiggyRuss]

True, but that doesn't make it wrong.
The new CBS is just that, new.

Regardless, Miami will always be a preferred destination, so even if the pool of players decreases, the Heat still has a decent chance.

we shall see right?

 

[Heatles84]

Whitlock - Successful organization changing on the fly. Led by Spo and Riley. That's what the league should look like, similar to the Spurs model. (paraphrasing here)

Yeah....but we're going to listen to Wiggy.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Again, you pulled a random figure out of your ass to try and make your case. How did you come to 500%? Break it down. I'm waiting. @bksballer89 just pulled a list of busts that were taken in the lottery the last several years. Where's your list?

say you have a 1/5 chance in the top 5 to get an all star-which is really low- but just to help your argument lets say one out of 5...-- thats 20% right?

say outside of the lotto you have a 2% chance....lets even DOUBLE that to 4%- which is ungodly high- but just for to help your argument lets say its 4%...

a 20% chance is 5x as likely as a 4% chance =500%. and thats being EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY conservative towards your end of the argument.

 

[Heatles84]

say you have a 1/5 chance in the top 5 to get an all star-which is really low- but just to help your argument lets say one out of 5...-- thats 20% right?

say outside of the lotto you have a 2% chance....lets even DOUBLE that to 4%- which is ungodly high- but just for to help your argument lets say its 4%...

a 20% chance is 5x as likely as a 4% chance =500%. and thats being EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY conservative towards your end of the argument.

I see that you never took statistics in college.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Whitlock - Successful organization changing on the fly. Led by Spo and Riley. That's what the league should look like, similar to the Spurs model. (paraphrasing here)

Yeah....but we're going to listen to Wiggy.

you won becuase you had Wade- who was a top 5 pick, and LeBron a top 5 pick. What was Alonzo Mourning? #2 overall? Shaq? #1 overall? Bosh was what? 4th overall?


if you think there is any kind of even SEMI realstic chance of finding one of those guys outside of the lotto you are in a huge state of denial.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I see that you never took statistics in college.

how is that wrong? please enlighten me...its 100% correct.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

we shall see right?

Exactly.
Listing lawyeristic meaningless stats or estimates means nothing.

If we're going to go by anytype of eye test or guestimation, then theres no case to currently be made for any team not named Warriors.

 

[Heatles84]

how is that wrong? please enlighten me...its 100% correct.

Where did you come up with these initial figures? Saying you have a 500% chance that you pick someone in the middle of the 1st round that would be an absolute bust is false. Probably only ranges from 0 - 1. 1 obviously being a 100% sure thing and 0 being 0% which means not even possible. You could say that it's a .1 probably (10%) that the Heat find an all-star in the middle of the 1st round and a .25 probability (25%) to find one in the top 5.

But again, question me on stats, I'd love it. Because I can clearly see you never took this in college - I have.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

And also how did it work for the sixers? They have won under 20 games the past 3 seasons. Probably going to win under 30 season. 4 seasons of tanking and not getting close to a title? This worked for the Sixers. Where?

They're also about to trade 2 of their lottery picks that they selected while tanking

And their best pick prob will never stay healthy.

 

[Heatles84]

LOL at 500%. Not only is that saying it's definitely not possible to pick a player who's of quality in the middle of the 1st round (Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are examples). But if you pick the wrong player, which would assuringly happen - you'll set yourself back 5 times or some shit like that. I'm now convinced Wiggy didn't even make it past high school.

 

[Heatles84]

Basic rule - when it comes to probabilities, you can't go over 100%, ladies and gents. Learn from the dumb.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Basic rule - when it comes to probabilities, you can't go over 100%, ladies and gents. Learn from the dumb.

Thats 105% correct..

 

[bksballer89]

LOL at 500%. Not only is that saying it's definitely not possible to pick a player who's of quality in the middle of the 1st round (Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are examples). But if you pick the wrong player, which would assuringly happen - you'll set yourself back 5 times or some shit like that. I'm now convinced Wiggy didn't even make it past high school.

Greek Freek was selected 15th I believe. The T-Wolves (prior to Wiggins/Towns) are a perfect example about what can happen to you if you select the wrong player in the lottery

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Greek Freek was selected 15th I believe. The T-Wolves (prior to Wiggins/Towns) are a perfect example about what can happen to you if you select the wrong player in the lottery

Or you can take Bennett at 1?

 

[Heatles84]

Greek Freek was selected 15th I believe. The T-Wolves (prior to Wiggins/Towns) are a perfect example about what can happen to you if you select the wrong player in the lottery

Listen. I'd love a top 5 pick. But saying that making the playoffs will doom us for years to come is asinine. Especially when it's known that there have been many quality players (including all-stars) taken in the mid-1st round is just hilarious. Picking in the lottery doesn't guarantee you anything. That's why teams like the T-wolves, Suns, Kings, 76ers, etc. live there. I'll go with an organization that has a plan and vision as opposed to not knowing what they're doing.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Where did you come up with these initial figures? Saying you have a 500% chance that you pick someone in the middle of the 1st round that would be an absolute bust is false. Probably only ranges from 0 - 1. 1 obviously being a 100% sure thing and 0 being 0% which means not even possible. You could say that it's a .1 probably (10%) that the Heat find an all-star in the middle of the 1st round and a .25 probability (25%) to find one in the top 5.

But again, question me on stats, I'd love it. Because I can clearly see you never took this in college - I have.

lol

please- this is the simplest of math here pal. Its not difficult

please try and follow along.

Do you agree that in the top 5, 20% chance of getting an all star is a CONSERVATIVE number?

Do you agree that OUTSIDE of the lotto- the chances of getting an all star are AT BEST 4%.?


the difference between 20% and 4% is a 500% increase

by contrast...the difference between 2% and 4% is a 100% increase. The difference between 3% and 9% is a 300% increase in probability.

This is not difficult math. I took stats too and could run you a regression analysis etc....this is MUCH MUCH MUCH SIMPLER math that a typical 7th grader could do if they had the intellgience to wrap their mind around it