2016-17 NBA Regular Season Thread

[WiggyRuss]

And we're saying that getting guys outside of the lottery who could end up being really good players is not out of the question either. Of course the odds are better if you have a high pick. But it's not the end all be all.

its not "out of the question". Its not "out of the question" that i win the power ball- but looking at it realistically its EXTREMELY RARE- like the sighting of a snow leopard, or a Whiteside 10 assist game.

 

[bksballer89]

So I'm going to look at all the drafts from 2008-2014 to see all the mediocre/average players drafted in the lottery in those years.

2014-Aaron Gordon, Donte Exum, Smart, Mcbuckets, Elfrid Payton, & Nik Staukas. I'm kinda tempted to list Julius Randle but I'll leave him off for now.

2013-Anthony Bennett, Mclemore, Trey Burke, MCW, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, & Shabazz Muhammad.

2012-Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Waiters, Ross, Kendall Marshall, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers, John Henson, & Meyers Leonard.

2011-Derrick Williams, Kanter, Jan Vesely, Biyombo, & Jimmer

2010-Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Aminu, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, & Ed Davis

2009- Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Johnny flynn, Jordan Hill, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyler Hansborough, and Earl Clark

2008- Mike Beasley, OJ Mayo, Joe Alexander, DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush, and Anthony Randolph.

So basically we're talking about half of the lottery yearly who basically becoming mediocre or role players for their career. I'll say it again. The lottery guarantees nothing. Half of the lottery does not live up to expectations yearly.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Best players taken outside of the Lotto in the last 5 NBA drafts:

2016: No one yet- well besides Patrick McCaw of course.

2015: No One

2014: Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic

2013: Giannis Antetokuompo, Dennis Schroeder, Rudy Gobert,

2012: Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Evan Fournier


so....out of the last 5 nba drafts- right now i see 2 All stars taken outside of the top 15. Jokic and Gobert look like they will be future all stars possibly, so lets add them as well. 4 guys



how many picks are there outside of the lotto in a draft- 15-60. 45 selections

45x5= 225 . 225/4 all stars (well 2 all stars and 2 not all stars but for the sake of argument ill put them in all stars)= so....a little over a 2% chance.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Cavs got the 2nd rounder--- but regardless- either way it would never transfer.

Anderson + cash for a 2nd rounder that wont transfer.

its structured likethat because the Horntets HAVE to give up SOMETHINg- so they give up a 2nd rounder that is top 55 protected (so unless the Horntes are top 5 in the league it doesnt transfer)

that is NOTHING like giving away a 1st round pick.

All this cost was gilbert's cash- as usual.

The 1st rounder we gave away turned into whom?

And, how is it costing Gilbert cash if hes saving more in taxes then hes giving Charlotte?

 

[WiggyRuss]

So I'm going to look at all the drafts from 2008-2014 to see all the mediocre/average players drafted in the lottery in those years.

2014-Aaron Gordon, Donte Exum, Smart, Mcbuckets, Elfrid Payton, & Nik Staukas. I'm kinda tempted to list Julius Randle but I'll leave him off for now.

2013-Anthony Bennett, Mclemore, Trey Burke, MCW, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, & Shabazz Muhammad.

2012-Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Waiters, Ross, Kendall Marshall, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers, John Henson, & Meyers Leonard.

2011-Derrick Williams, Kanter, Jan Vesely, Biyombo, & Jimmer

2010-Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Aminu, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, & Ed Davis

2009- Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Johnny flynn, Jordan Hill, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyler Hansborough, and Earl Clark

2008- Mike Beasley, OJ Mayo, Joe Alexander, DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush, and Anthony Randolph.

So basically we're talking about half of the lottery yearly who basically becoming mediocre or role players for their career. I'll say it again. The lottery guarantees nothing. Half of the lottery does not live up to expectations yearly.

so you are saying half?-- i think HALF is even high....lets cut that down to a QUARTER---shit--- lets cut it in HALF again- and say only 12.5%

12.5% v. 2%

so you are OVER SIX TIMES MORE likely to find a high value player in the lotto then outside of it.

all right. thanks.

 

[bksballer89]

so you are saying half?-- i think HALF is even high....lets cut that down to a QUARTER---shit--- lets cut it in HALF again- and say only 12.5%

12.5% v. 2%

so you are OVER SIX TIMES MORE likely to find a high value player in the lotto then outside of it.

all right. thanks.

Why would you cut it down to a quarter? Which one of those players I listed turned into some star and is living up to their expectations from where they were selected. I'll wait

 

[Heatles84]

its not "out of the question". Its not "out of the question" that i win the power ball- but looking at it realistically its EXTREMELY RARE- like the sighting of a snow leopard, or a Whiteside 10 assist game.

The odds of you winning the powerball is one in about 100 million. Saying that the Heat land an all-star or at worst a quality prospect in the middle of the 1st round isn't as bad and is not extremely rare. Your analogy is shit as usual.

 

[bksballer89]

Point is the lottery is about as hit or miss as the rest of the draft. Very few superstars are drafted in lottery and those who do turn into superstars are usually not drafted in the top 5.

 

[WiggyRuss]

The odds of you winning the powerball is one in about 100 million. Saying that the Heat land an all-star or at worst a quality prospect in the middle of the 1st round isn't as bad and is not extremely rare. Your analogy is shit as usual.

id probably say landing an all star outside the top 15 is probably about a 2% chance.

landing an all star in the top 5 is probably about a 20% chance (and i think that is VERY conservative- that mens only ONE of the top 5 is an all star- which seems very lite).

i mean, thats only 10x's higher- and thats being very conservative.

 

[Heatles84]

So I'm going to look at all the drafts from 2008-2014 to see all the mediocre/average players drafted in the lottery in those years.

2014-Aaron Gordon, Donte Exum, Smart, Mcbuckets, Elfrid Payton, & Nik Staukas. I'm kinda tempted to list Julius Randle but I'll leave him off for now.

2013-Anthony Bennett, Mclemore, Trey Burke, MCW, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, & Shabazz Muhammad.

2012-Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Waiters, Ross, Kendall Marshall, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers, John Henson, & Meyers Leonard.

2011-Derrick Williams, Kanter, Jan Vesely, Biyombo, & Jimmer

2010-Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Aminu, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, & Ed Davis

2009- Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Johnny flynn, Jordan Hill, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyler Hansborough, and Earl Clark

2008- Mike Beasley, OJ Mayo, Joe Alexander, DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush, and Anthony Randolph.

So basically we're talking about half of the lottery yearly who basically becoming mediocre or role players for their career. I'll say it again. The lottery guarantees nothing. Half of the lottery does not live up to expectations yearly.

That's what I'm saying as well. Picking in the lottery doesn't guarantee you shit. Look at all of them busts. And Cleveland picked by far the worst one out of all of them. Bennett can't even get playing time in Europe now.

 

[Heatles84]

id probably say landing an all star outside the top 15 is probably about a 2% chance.

landing an all star in the top 5 is probably about a 20% chance.

i mean, thats only 10x's higher.

I'd like to see how you came about these stats. Booker looks like he's a future all-star in the making. Drafted with the 11th pick if I'm not mistaken.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Point is the lottery is about as hit or miss as the rest of the draft. Very few superstars are drafted in lottery and those who do turn into superstars are usually not drafted in the top 5.

no way. thats ridiculous.

outside of the lotto there is prob about a 2% chance at getting an all star.

if you tank and get a top 5 pick id say there is AT LEAST a 20% chance of getting an all star- probably quite a bit higher but ill be conservative (thats saying only 1 guy out of the top 5 becomes an all star).

 

[bksballer89]

no way. thats ridiculous.

outside of the lotto there is prob about a 2% chance at getting an all star.

if you tank and get a top 5 pick id say there is AT LEAST a 20% chance of getting an all star- probably quite a bit higher but ill be conservative (thats saying only 1 guy out of the top 5 becomes an all star).

Well the Heat doesn't believe in tanking. Very few teams in the league does.

 

[WiggyRuss]

That's what I'm saying as well. Picking in the lottery doesn't guarantee you shit. Look at all of them busts. And Cleveland picked by far the worst one out of all of them. Bennett can't even get playing time in Europe now.

it definitely doesnt GUARANTEE you anything.

i still think even if you have a top 5 pick the odds are against you

but - lets even be MORE conservative--- lets say- 20% chance a top 5 pick becomes an all star--- and a 4% chance that a non-lotto pick becomes an all star (which is an extremely EXTREMELY high number)

thats at least a 500% increase on finding an all star in the top 5 as opposed to outside the lotto.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Well the Heat doesn't believe in tanking. Very few teams in the league does.

Sixers, Thunder and Cavs did. Worked for them.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

id probably say landing an all star outside the top 15 is probably about a 2% chance.

landing an all star in the top 5 is probably about a 20% chance (and i think that is VERY conservative- that mens only ONE of the top 5 is an all star- which seems very lite).

i mean, thats only 10x's higher- and thats being very conservative.

Still, a much better chance to trade for, or sign an all star in FA, which has been the Heat method of operation for years now.

 

[Heatles84]

Oh, just watching the Herd and Jason Whitlock discusses why the NBA needs to be controlled by the execs like the Heat's Pat Riley. Imagine that.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Still, a much better chance to trade for, or sign an all star in FA, which has been the Heat method of operation for years now.

well the new CBA has made it increasingly more difficult to sign an All star level player- ESPECIALLY a high level all star.

 

[Heatles84]

Sixers, Thunder and Cavs did. Worked for them.

Thunder didn't believe in tanking. They just didn't have a quality roster where they just sucked. In the span of 3-4 years they nabbed Harden, Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka. They kept growing year-by-year. Philly's been on this tanking venture for the better part of the decade.

And without Lebron, all that tanking means shit.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Sixers, Thunder and Cavs did. Worked for them.

Sucking, while trying vs losing intentionally, are two totally different things.

No players ever try to lose.
Heat just have better structure, training, coaching, which seems to prevent them from being like the above mentioned teams that you named.