2016-17 NBA Regular Season Thread

[bksballer89]

i just think its kind of weird though. i dunno

as soon as wade left - i would think the heat would go into rebuild--- and they pretty much did- and it looked like they were even going to maybe trade Dragic and really bottom out------- but now, it looks like, what? they are competing?

i just hate when teams are split in between.

I do have to say- it was a major bummer that Winslow got hurt in what would have been a nice year to develop him.

Its just unclear what hte Heat's strategy is right now to me--- is it to rebuild? or is it to try and get a playoff spot? Will they resign J. Johnson and Waiters and keep the team together? or let them go and trade Dragic who is on the wrong side of 30.

this offseason will have huge long term reprocussions considering the Heat sitll owe 2 first rounders to the Suns but do have their pick this year- and with Winslow and TJs increases, this offseason is the best year to jump into free agency.

You do know you can rebuild even if you make the playoffs right? If you're shitty roster is good enough to make the playoffs then so what? It does not change the organization goals of rebuilding. The Heat were never in a rush to trade Dragic. Heck it was never even a lock. The guy is not on an expiring contract. Dragic has been playing amazing basketball since December. The Heat are not going to be delusional with this roster and think that just because they may make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed that this roster is all of sudden good enough to win a ship.

 

[Heatles84]

i just think its kind of weird though. i dunno

as soon as wade left - i would think the heat would go into rebuild--- and they pretty much did- and it looked like they were even going to maybe trade Dragic and really bottom out------- but now, it looks like, what? they are competing?

i just hate when teams are split in between.

I do have to say- it was a major bummer that Winslow got hurt in what would have been a nice year to develop him.

Its just unclear what hte Heat's strategy is right now to me--- is it to rebuild? or is it to try and get a playoff spot? Will they resign J. Johnson and Waiters and keep the team together? or let them go and trade Dragic who is on the wrong side of 30.

this offseason will have huge long term reprocussions considering the Heat sitll owe 2 first rounders to the Suns but do have their pick this year- and with Winslow and TJs increases, this offseason is the best year to jump into free agency.

I'm cool with it either way. The Heat have significant room in the cap next year with Bosh's salary being off the books. Lottery picks are a crap shoot anyway. The Kings have lived in the lottery and look at how that turned out. Same with the Suns, Nuggets, etc.. The Heat picked Winslow a pick ahead of Booker. It's all about evaluation and getting lucky.

The Heat are showing that they can win with anybody. Not at a title level this year, but they're maximizing the talent that they have available. They're overachieving, not under.

 

[WiggyRuss]

wait...

Cavs actually got the "never going to transfer" 2nd rounder......

basically paid cash to the Horntes to take Anderson off the roster.....

the official trade is Anderson and cash for a highly protected 2nd rounder.

now the Cavs have another empty roster spot to play with. Nicely done Griff.

as i said- lets hope a worthy- buy-out candidate presents themselves at some point.

 

[bksballer89]

I'm cool with it either way. The Heat have significant room in the cap next year with Bosh's salary being off the books. Lottery picks are a crap shoot anyway. The Kings have lived in the lottery and look at how that turned out. Same with the Suns, Nuggets, etc.. The Heat picked Winslow a pick ahead of Booker. It's all about evaluation and getting lucky.

The Heat are showing that they can win with anybody. Not at a title level this year, but they're maximizing the talent that they have available. They're overachieving, not under.

Yep a lottery pick guarantees you nothing.

 

[WiggyRuss]

You do know you can rebuild even if you make the playoffs right? If you're shitty roster is good enough to make the playoffs then so what? It does not change the organization goals of rebuilding. The Heat were never in a rush to trade Dragic. Heck it was never even a lock. The guy is not on an expiring contract. Dragic has been playing amazing basketball since December. The Heat are not going to be delusional with this roster and think that just because they may make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed that this roster is all of sudden good enough to win a ship.

I tend to think there is a HUGE difference in the probability of adding a centerpiece player from a top 5 pick, and a pick that is outside of the lotto (15 and back).

If the Heat make the 8 seed in the East and lose- with how the West is- that would most likely give them the 16th pick. its HARD to find a centerpiece with the 16th pick.

its definitely not easy finding a centerpiece guy or just an all star with a top 5 pick- but the percentages are damn near ANEMIC when you start going outside of the lotto- or even towards the back end of the lotto.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I'm cool with it either way. The Heat have significant room in the cap next year with Bosh's salary being off the books. Lottery picks are a crap shoot anyway. The Kings have lived in the lottery and look at how that turned out. Same with the Suns, Nuggets, etc.. The Heat picked Winslow a pick ahead of Booker. It's all about evaluation and getting lucky.

The Heat are showing that they can win with anybody. Not at a title level this year, but they're maximizing the talent that they have available. They're overachieving, not under.

define "significant" cap room?

if they want to bring back Waiters, even if Bosh is 100% clear, its not going to be nearly the amount of cap room that some other teams have.

 

[bksballer89]

I tend to think there is a HUGE difference in the probability of adding a centerpiece player from a top 5 pick, and a pick that is outside of the lotto (15 and back).

If the Heat make the 8 seed in the East and lose- with how the West is- that would most likely give them the 16th pick. its HARD to find a centerpiece with the 16th pick.

its definitely not easy finding a centerpiece guy or just an all star with a top 5 pick- but the percentages are damn near ANEMIC when you start going outside of the lotto- or even towards the back end of the lotto.

8 All Stars from this year team were not lottery picks.....That's a pretty high number

 

[WiggyRuss]

8 All Stars from this year team were not lottery picks.....That's a pretty high number

you think thats a high number? in all of the NBA, 8?

what chances does that give you ya think? 1%? 3% at most?

 

[larryjohn]

8 All Stars from this year team were not lottery picks.....That's a pretty high number

Five are 2nd rounders.

 

[bksballer89]

Never thought the Heat would be top 10 in any power ranking in mid February but they made it to Marc Stein top 10.

The most improbable 13-game winning streak in the history of the NBA is over. Just three of Miami's 13 victims -- Houston, Golden State and Atlanta -- came against .500-or-better teams. The streak also included a 10-game stretch that, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, will rank as the second-easiest span of 10 games for any team all season long. How much do you downgrade Miami's achievements based on those realities? Not much here. We want to go the other way and hat-tip these guys because all the February drama we've seen league-wide (Melo vs. Phil, Oak vs. Dolan, KD vs. OKC) kept the Heat's crazy win streak more under the radar than it should have been ... no matter who they were beating.

 

[bksballer89]

you think thats a high number? in all of the NBA, 8?

what chances does that give you ya think? 1%? 3% at most?

1/3 of the team being non lottery picks is pretty high

I don't even have time to list all the awful players selected in the lottery over the past 5-10 years

 

[bksballer89]

Five are 2nd rounders.

Yep. It is crazy but it's not a high # according to wiggy.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I'm cool with it either way. The Heat have significant room in the cap next year with Bosh's salary being off the books. Lottery picks are a crap shoot anyway. The Kings have lived in the lottery and look at how that turned out. Same with the Suns, Nuggets, etc.. The Heat picked Winslow a pick ahead of Booker. It's all about evaluation and getting lucky.

The Heat are showing that they can win with anybody. Not at a title level this year, but they're maximizing the talent that they have available. They're overachieving, not under.

as far as salary cap goes- the cap next year is projected to be 102M

right now- if they keep Dragic and Whiteside at the deadline, what does it look like?

Dragic 17
Whiteside 24
Ellington 6
McRoberts 6
TJ 6
Winslow 3
Richardson/Willie Reed 2

= 64M--- equals 38M in cap room

that of course does not include Waiters or James Johnson. What would you expect those 2 to make if you want to bring them back?

if you dont want to bring them back - that leaves you with 38M in cap room...which is enough for 1 max player (say 25M), and one pretty good player (13M) .



the thing is- this is the year you will likely have to make a move- because if you wait- TJ's contract increase sucks of 13M in cap once it goes from 6M to 19M the following year.


i suppose it would be possible to get off the Ellington contract and maybe the McRoberts contract if you tied draft assets to either guy- but the Heat have pretty much as bare a stock of draft picks as is legally allowable until 2022.


NBA Future Drafts Detailed - RealGM

 

[WiggyRuss]

Yep. It is crazy but it's not a high # according to wiggy.

like i said--- what do you think the probability is? somewhere between 1% and 3%?

 

[knowyourenemy]

8 All Stars from this year team were not lottery picks.....That's a pretty high number

How many league MVPs have been drafted outside of the lottery in the last 20 years? Outside of the Top 10? Top 5? I think Nash may be the only non-lottery pick and he was taken 15th overall. You can find players later in the draft but Wiggy is right that your odds of finding a centerpiece drastically decrease.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

looks like the Cavs traded Chris Anderson to the Hornets for the proverbial "2nd round pick" that has protections on it that make likely to never transfer + cash considerations.

basically Dan paying the Hornets to take Anderson. cool.

All right All Right All Right. Now lets just hope the right player drops in their laps post buy-out deadline. This should allow them to keep Williams while staying on the lookout for another player- whether that is a PG- or a big man like a Bogut or Varejao.

Cavaliers Trade Chris Andersen To Hornets To Lessen luxury Tax Bill

Because the Hornets are helping the Cavaliers relieve some of their immense luxury tax bill, Cleveland has included the aforementioned cash considerations in the Monday morning trade.

It is also worth noting that the protected second-round draft pick is a selection that the Cavaliers will likely never see.

Good move by Cavs.
Similar to when the Heat sent Anthony packing.

Funny how you claim one was a great move, but the other a reason that James would leave, when in essentially they both accomplished the same thing for the same reason.

 

[Heatles84]

How many league MVPs have been drafted outside of the lottery in the last 20 years? Outside of the Top 10? Top 5? I think Nash may be the only non-lottery pick and he was taken 15th overall. You can find players later in the draft but Wiggy is right that your odds of finding a centerpiece drastically decrease.

And we're saying that getting guys outside of the lottery who could end up being really good players is not out of the question either. Of course the odds are better if you have a high pick. But it's not the end all be all.

 

[WiggyRuss]

How many league MVPs have been drafted outside of the lottery in the last 20 years? Outside of the Top 10? Top 5? I think Nash may be the only non-lottery pick and he was taken 15th overall. You can find players later in the draft but Wiggy is right that your odds of finding a centerpiece drastically decrease.

its basically impossible probability wise to find an all star guy outside the top 10---- and VERY VERY HARD outside the top 5.

it happens- but you have to get REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALY LUCKY.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Good move by Cavs.
Similar to when the Heat sent Anthony packing.

Funny how you claim one was a great move, but the other a reason that James would leave, when in essentially they both accomplished the same thing for the same reason.

Cavs got the 2nd rounder--- but regardless- either way it would never transfer.

Anderson + cash for a 2nd rounder that wont transfer.

its structured likethat because the Horntets HAVE to give up SOMETHINg- so they give up a 2nd rounder that is top 55 protected (so unless the Horntes are top 5 in the league it doesnt transfer)

that is NOTHING like giving away a 1st round pick.

All this cost was gilbert's cash- as usual.

 

[Heatles84]

Good move by Cavs.
Similar to when the Heat sent Anthony packing.

Funny how you claim one was a great move, but the other a reason that James would leave, when in essentially they both accomplished the same thing for the same reason.

Glad you said it. If I did, it'd be construed as me picking on Wiggy.