2015 NFL Draft thread

[NinerSickness]

Remember when Aaron Rodgers fell to pick #26 in the 2005 draft?

Yes, but QBs are quite different. Running backs are usually the easiest positions in the NFL to evaluate, and Gordon is about as sure as a thing as it gets IMO.

You could be right, but a lot of GMs are incompetent if he falls to the 2nd IMO.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think that's the best plan for any rookie QB. Being a 1st round pick starting for a bottom tier team is a tried and proven recipe for failure. Why don't these teams realize that yet?

Free Agency. Brock Osweiler was a 2nd round pick and won't play a single high leverage snap most likely as a Bronco under his rookie deal. And not a single tear will be shed about it in Denver.

Back in the timeframe Rodgers was in, #1 picks, especially #1 overall picks, were paid an absurd amount of money; so there's a huge amount of pressure for top picks to start even if that isn't the best thing down the line.

May have been the difference between Alex Smith going #1 instead of Rodgers, who really knows for sure, though.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[Iggloo]

I read today that the Chiefs were the first NFL team to have zero TDs from a wide receiver in 50 years. If true, that is pretty amazing. They are rumored to be making a run at Philly's Jeremy Maclin, who played at Missouri and is from the state. But if they don't go free agency, you have to think they draft some receivers.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I read today that the Chiefs were the first NFL team to have zero TDs from a wide receiver in 50 years. If true, that is pretty amazing. They are rumored to be making a run at Philly's Jeremy Maclin, who played at Missouri and is from the state. But if they don't go free agency, you have to think they draft some receivers.

It'd be tough for KC to be serious FA players with Justin Houston, Rodney Hudson and a few others demanding big money. If they do go after a FA WR, it'd almost have to be Maclin, however due to the scheme fit, familiarity, need, etc. There's going to be a lot of bloodletting in KC when it comes to peripheral players like DeVito, Avery, Mays, etc to make serious moves in FA.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

It'd be tough for KC to be serious FA players with Justin Houston, Rodney Hudson and a few others demanding big money. If they do go after a FA WR, it'd almost have to be Maclin, however due to the scheme fit, familiarity, need, etc. There's going to be a lot of bloodletting in KC when it comes to peripheral players like DeVito, Avery, Mays, etc to make serious moves in FA.

They will have to do some serious Cap crunching to fit Maclin if they sign Houston who will want to max out I'm sure.

BTW...what's the latest with Berry?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

They will have to do some serious Cap crunching to fit Maclin if they sign Houston who will want to max out I'm sure.

BTW...what's the latest with Berry?

The assumption is Berry will not play this upcoming season. Additionally, he will probably be put on the NFL list where if precedent prevails, 50% of his cap hit (roughly 4M here) would effectively disappear for a season.

I had some details on the subject on the Chiefs board, and essentially to get the cap to a level where you can sign Maclin's, Houstons, and Hudsons, you have to cut the following:

Avery (already cut)
AJ Jenkins (waived about an hour ago)
Chase Daniel (Backup QB with a cheaper Aaron Murray behind him + Pryor signing; he gone)
Devito (Achilles guy)
Joe Mays (Broken Hand)
Fasano

Restructure the following or cut:

Tamba Hali
Bowe

Restructure Alex Smith to create 8M in cap room (he actually can't refuse interesting enough)

Roughly equates to 35M+ of cap room if they do all of those things. However, obviously guys like Hudson, Maclin, Houston,role players, and 11 picks could almost instantly eat it.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Free Agency. Brock Osweiler was a 2nd round pick and won't play a single high leverage snap most likely as a Bronco under his rookie deal. And not a single tear will be shed about it in Denver.

Back in the timeframe Rodgers was in, #1 picks, especially #1 overall picks, were paid an absurd amount of money; so there's a huge amount of pressure for top picks to start even if that isn't the best thing down the line.

May have been the difference between Alex Smith going #1 instead of Rodgers, who really knows for sure, though.

The 49ers had the 1st pick that year, so I followed the whole thing closely. At the time many scouts thought Aaron Rodgers was a product of a great system under his coach and that me might be close to his ceiling coming out of college. The thought was Alex Smith had a much larger upside. Those scouts got it wrong. I do think Rodgers going to Green Bay was a good thing for him. Rodgers wanted to be drafted by his hometown team. The 49ers really bad then. He would have been thrown into the fire behind a bad offense line. Alex Smith was killed by the pass rush his second year.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

The assumption is Berry will not play this upcoming season. Additionally, he will probably be put on the NFL list where if precedent prevails, 50% of his cap hit (roughly 4M here) would effectively disappear for a season.

I had some details on the subject on the Chiefs board, and essentially to get the cap to a level where you can sign Maclin's, Houstons, and Hudsons, you have to cut the following:

Avery (already cut)
AJ Jenkins (waived about an hour ago)
Chase Daniel (Backup QB with a cheaper Aaron Murray behind him + Pryor signing; he gone)
Devito (Achilles guy)
Joe Mays (Broken Hand)
Fasano

Restructure the following or cut:

Tamba Hali
Bowe

Restructure Alex Smith to create 8M in cap room (he actually can't refuse interesting enough)

Roughly equates to 35M+ of cap room if they do all of those things. However, obviously guys like Hudson, Maclin, Houston,role players, and 11 picks could almost instantly eat it.

Berry...hope he makes it back or at least able to beat this and have decent life after football...ATL guy and a Vol.

Restructures/Cuts...the top tier doesn't seem as it would hurt the squad much...Bowe's signing was a mistake anyway...lotta dead money to carry there....Hali would hurt some, but he's getting on up there in age.

A Smith...imo is solid, but I think that's all he'll ever be.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Berry...hope he makes it back or at least able to beat this and have decent life after football...ATL guy and a Vol.

Restructures/Cuts...the top tier doesn't seem as it would hurt the squad much...Bowe's signing was a mistake anyway...lotta dead money to carry there....Hali would hurt some, but he's getting on up there in age.

A Smith...imo is solid, but I think that's all he'll ever be.

Berry really has been snakebit with some injuries (that really have little to do with his conditioning) in his career. Going to be a big blow that he can't solidfy the backend, but truth be told, the secondary did a pretty admirable job without him; so not all is lost there either from a pure football perspective.

There is some hope he could be back on the football field in 2016, but 2015 seems like a longshot. Cancer really is a bitch. In the meantime, can only hope everything works out for the guy- I really don't want to envision what cancer would be like in one's 20's.

Bowe's signing really does look pretty terrible now. His shenanigans with Weed knock out a lot of the barriers that would have made him near uncuttable- so Bowe kind of bailed us out there. The contract is so outrageous however, he can probably shave a few million with a paycut, and still be plenty overpaid. Thankfully, this is an NFL contract, and not an MLB contract. A June 1st Designation may be in his future.

The Alex Smith question does perplex me, personally. Occasionally flashes some really nice throws, other times has mind numbing happy feet that can't be explained away from just pressure. Then there's his ultra-conservative style which I honestly have a hard time assessing within the modern NFL. The offense was actually 12th in points per drive despite the disastrous WR's and OL, so it does make me wonder. Then there is the preposterously low AAY/A which begs for a lot of other questions. How much is the short game Reid's WCO, how much is it Smith. Lot of mixed feelings about the offense, and Smith certainly is at the center of that.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Berry really has been snakebit with some injuries (that really have little to do with his conditioning) in his career. Going to be a big blow that he can't solidfy the backend, but truth be told, the secondary did a pretty admirable job without him; so not all is lost there either from a pure football perspective.

There is some hope he could be back on the football field in 2016, but 2015 seems like a longshot. Cancer really is a bitch. In the meantime, can only hope everything works out for the guy- I really don't want to envision what cancer would be like in one's 20's.

Bowe's signing really does look pretty terrible now. His shenanigans with Weed knock out a lot of the barriers that would have made him near uncuttable- so Bowe kind of bailed us out there. The contract is so outrageous however, he can probably shave a few million with a paycut, and still be plenty overpaid. Thankfully, this is an NFL contract, and not an MLB contract. A June 1st Designation may be in his future.

The Alex Smith question does perplex me, personally. Occasionally flashes some really nice throws, other times has mind numbing happy feet that can't be explained away from just pressure. Then there's his ultra-conservative style which I honestly have a hard time assessing within the modern NFL. The offense was actually 12th in points per drive despite the disastrous WR's and OL, so it does make me wonder. Then there is the preposterously low AAY/A which begs for a lot of other questions. How much is the short game Reid's WCO, how much is it Smith. Lot of mixed feelings about the offense, and Smith certainly is at the center of that.

Really good observations. Saw the same thing with Alex Smith while he was in SF. In response to the last part of your paragraph, those are all factors as they were in SF. Smith is very risk averse. He doesn't like throwing into tight windows and would rather just check down. In SF, he checked down to the RBs alot. It wasn't surprising how few interceptions he threw the last couple of years he was there. I do think he is best in a WCO.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Berry really has been snakebit with some injuries (that really have little to do with his conditioning) in his career. Going to be a big blow that he can't solidfy the backend, but truth be told, the secondary did a pretty admirable job without him; so not all is lost there either from a pure football perspective.

There is some hope he could be back on the football field in 2016, but 2015 seems like a longshot. Cancer really is a bitch. In the meantime, can only hope everything works out for the guy- I really don't want to envision what cancer would be like in one's 20's.

Bowe's signing really does look pretty terrible now. His shenanigans with Weed knock out a lot of the barriers that would have made him near uncuttable- so Bowe kind of bailed us out there. The contract is so outrageous however, he can probably shave a few million with a paycut, and still be plenty overpaid. Thankfully, this is an NFL contract, and not an MLB contract. A June 1st Designation may be in his future.

The Alex Smith question does perplex me, personally. Occasionally flashes some really nice throws, other times has mind numbing happy feet that can't be explained away from just pressure. Then there's his ultra-conservative style which I honestly have a hard time assessing within the modern NFL. The offense was actually 12th in points per drive despite the disastrous WR's and OL, so it does make me wonder. Then there is the preposterously low AAY/A which begs for a lot of other questions. How much is the short game Reid's WCO, how much is it Smith. Lot of mixed feelings about the offense, and Smith certainly is at the center of that.

Berry...yeah, health is my angle on him...health aside I don't think he's ever lived up to his draft position...been a good player though.

Bowe...idk how the dead money looks overall for KC, but right now he would generate quite a bit if cut...may have to do it though...he's just not a true #1 WR.

A. Smith...it is perplexing...I think when Harbaugh revived his career in SF he did it by eliminating the big turnovers which really plagued his career there. Simplified the reads and allowed him to use his legs more...Alex being a smart guy really took the conservative approach to a higher level and that's ultimately what got him run out of SF...ironic.

Reid's WC OFC...yeah that's part of it. But he threw it deep in PHI. IMO when you're facing playoff caliber teams with good corners...you've got to challenge the FS with the deep ball to give those underneath routes a little cushion. I could be wrong, but I don't think KC will be in the market for a QB anytime soon.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Berry...yeah, health is my angle on him...health aside I don't think he's ever lived up to his draft position...been a good player though.

Bowe...idk how the dead money looks overall for KC, but right now he would generate quite a bit if cut...may have to do it though...he's just not a true #1 WR.

A. Smith...it is perplexing...I think when Harbaugh revived his career in SF he did it by eliminating the big turnovers which really plagued his career there. Simplified the reads and allowed him to use his legs more...Alex being a smart guy really took the conservative approach to a higher level and that's ultimately what got him run out of SF...ironic.

Reid's WC OFC...yeah that's part of it. But he threw it deep in PHI. IMO when you're facing playoff caliber teams with good corners...you've got to challenge the FS with the deep ball to give those underneath routes a little cushion. I could be wrong, but I don't think KC will be in the market for a QB anytime soon.

The thing about QB's is the GM, John Dorsey, was the head of College Scouting when GB drafted Rodgers (coincidentally perhaps, another former Pack FO member was part of the crew who drafted Smith #1 overall in SF; and is now GM of the 'Skins) so I wouldn't be surprised if they were open to drafting one after next season. Realistically, Smith should be in KC barring a disaster until the conclusion of 2017.

Bowe smoking weed takes away some of the guarantees if IIRC. It opens the door for him to but cut. A June 1st cut frees up close to 10M this year which is crazy to think about, but some of that gets chucked down the road, too.

 

[Rambulance]

Yes, but QBs are quite different. Running backs are usually the easiest positions in the NFL to evaluate, and Gordon is about as sure as a thing as it gets IMO.

You could be right, but a lot of GMs are incompetent if he falls to the 2nd IMO.

Don't the past NFL failures of every single Wisconsin RB since 1993 scare you just a little bit?

James White
Montee Ball
John Clay
P.J. Hill
Brian Calhoun
Anthony Davis
Michael Bennett
Ron Dayne
Carl McCullough
Terrell Fletcher
Brent Moss

 

[Pattersonca65]

Berry...yeah, health is my angle on him...health aside I don't think he's ever lived up to his draft position...been a good player though.

Bowe...idk how the dead money looks overall for KC, but right now he would generate quite a bit if cut...may have to do it though...he's just not a true #1 WR.

A. Smith...it is perplexing...I think when Harbaugh revived his career in SF he did it by eliminating the big turnovers which really plagued his career there. Simplified the reads and allowed him to use his legs more...Alex being a smart guy really took the conservative approach to a higher level and that's ultimately what got him run out of SF...ironic.

Reid's WC OFC...yeah that's part of it. But he threw it deep in PHI. IMO when you're facing playoff caliber teams with good corners...you've got to challenge the FS with the deep ball to give those underneath routes a little cushion. I could be wrong, but I don't think KC will be in the market for a QB anytime soon.

The 49ers defense that year was very good and created a lot of turnovers as was the special teams. Smith had good field position to work with and defense kept the score tight so Smith never had to win a shootout. Add to that a really good run game so Smith only had to manage the game. As you say, they simplified the reads. Smith was risk averse and checked down a lot of he didn't have that wipe open receiver. Smith didn't try throwing into tight windows, didn't make the type of throws the really good NFL QBs can make. But Harbaugh did not take advantage of his legs. Smith is an athletic QB and he should have run more while he was in SF.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Don't the past NFL failures of every single Wisconsin RB since 1993 scare you just a little bit?

James White
Montee Ball
John Clay
P.J. Hill
Brian Calhoun
Anthony Davis
Michael Bennett
Ron Dayne
Carl McCullough
Terrell Fletcher
Brent Moss

It's a pretty good list, but I have to say, I do think Gordon is the real deal, personally. Would I invest a 1st rounder on him? No.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The 49ers defense that year was very good and created a lot of turnovers as was the special teams. Smith had good field position to work with and defense kept the score tight so Smith never had to win a shootout. Add to that a really good run game so Smith only had to manage the game. As you say, they simplified the reads. Smith was risk averse and checked down a lot of he didn't have that wipe open receiver. Smith didn't try throwing into tight windows, didn't make the type of throws the really good NFL QBs can make. But Harbaugh did not take advantage of his legs. Smith is an athletic QB and he should have run more while he was in SF.

The bolded sounds eerily similar to what's going on over here right now, actually. Top 5 in most ST categories, ascending defense that is #2 in PPG right now behind Seattle despite a nasty brush with the injury bug. Turnovers have been somewhat bipolar with 2013 being extremely productive, with 2014 being the exact opposite; but with better overall coverage. Jamaal is the all time YPC leader.

What Reid has done over here has actually been to complicate and diversify the offense as much as possible to the point of being a bit absurd in my personal opinion; Gruden wouldn't STFU about it during the Pats game from what I hear. WR's in this offense aren't just responsible for their own route, but knowing everyone else's route(s) on a given play as well.

There's also a lot of package plays being implemented, so it's a fairly nuanced offense in general. Not sure how much different that is from the system he ran with Roman, but the system itself seems pretty viable given that the PPG is dramatically different, positively, from pre-Reid, the WR's and OL? Not so much.

 

[TxHeat]

My guess is that Winston will go 1 and Mariota will go 2.

I think Winston's career arc will resemble Josh Freeman where he'll be underrated for a year or two, inconsistent for a year or two and then he'll do something stupid and he'll be a backup somewhere.

I think Mariota is going to have a dink and dunk rookie year like Bradford did but he'll probably have a better career than Bradford because he throws a better deep ball.

All Mariota would need to do is stay upright thru a full season to be better than Bradford. That's a really low ceiling.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Anyways, back to the original topic...

 

[Pattersonca65]

The bolded sounds eerily similar to what's going on over here right now, actually. Top 5 in most ST categories, ascending defense that is #2 in PPG right now behind Seattle despite a nasty brush with the injury bug. Turnovers have been somewhat bipolar with 2013 being extremely productive, with 2014 being the exact opposite; but with better overall coverage. Jamaal is the all time YPC leader.

What Reid has done over here has actually been to complicate and diversify the offense as much as possible to the point of being a bit absurd in my personal opinion; Gruden wouldn't STFU about it during the Pats game from what I hear. WR's in this offense aren't just responsible for their own route, but knowing everyone else's route(s) on a given play as well.

There's also a lot of package plays being implemented, so it's a fairly nuanced offense in general. Not sure how much different that is from the system he ran with Roman, but the system itself seems pretty viable given that the PPG is dramatically different, positively, from pre-Reid, the WR's and OL? Not so much.

Smith was so screwed up pre-Harbaugh that I think part of keeping it simple was to instill confidence in him. Also, there was the lockout coming into that year so there wasn't a lot of time for Smith to work into a new offense. Smith is in a different place right now. He's had years of valuable experience. Very bright guy, probably one of the smartest players in the league. Nothing he can't learn. I think if the Chiefs get him some good WRs, It will open things up a bit. I would be surprised though to ever see Smith gunslinging it. Don't thing that is Reid's approach anyway.