2013 Offseason Player Transaction Thread

[PAINTERMAN]

The only reason Kinsler is considered a top 2B in the AL is because of his offensive production, he was one of the worst fielding 2B this year....how do you figure that 2 positions would be weakened? Profar is a MUCH better fielder than Kinsler and should take over the position nicely if Kinsler moves to the OF. Kinsler would prob not be a very good OF but he cant be any worse than Cruz.....one way or another Profar is getting in the lineup next year, I think extending Andrus wont be as difficult as many of you are making it sound. Players make their money from offensive production, he is not a big producer at the plate and therefore I dont think he will cost $15+ mil/year to extend. His type of game is very similar to Rafael Furcal and I dont think he ever made more than $13 mil in a season.

He may have been the worst of the best as far as fielding this year. He is considered a top 2b because of his production and there aren't to many teams that wouldn't love to a 20+/20 type of guy at 2b. If he goes to the OF I believe 2 positions will be weakened because there will be an adjustment period for Profar and I don't think Kins will be very good in the OF either, although I do agree he would probably be better than Cruz. That really wouldn't require a whole lot.
As for what it will take to extend Elvis, I don't know. That's why I asked the original question.

 

[jta4437]

I would consider trading Kinsler to Toronto for Arencibia and Lind,

Toronto seems to have given up on Lind and he carries a 5 million dollar price tag next year, and might have a rebound year here with a change of scenery

Toronto also has to ask themselves who's a better value at 2B, Free Agent Kelly Johnson at 10-12 million per year, or Kinsler

Arencibia has had problems with average, but is a solid talent and is currently being pressed by d'Arnaud

 

[slugger82685]

Ok. Now I know you don't know what you're talking about.

if your are talking about Kinsler's defense, please prove me wrong:


Major League Leaderboards 2012 Second Basemen Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball


I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Ahhh....sluggers's a "stat" guy.
Now it all makes sense....

I would consider trading Kinsler to Toronto for Arencibia and Lind,

Toronto seems to have given up on Lind and he carries a 5 million dollar price tag next year, and might have a rebound year here with a change of scenery

Toronto also has to ask themselves who's a better value at 2B, Free Agent Kelly Johnson at 10-12 million per year, or Kinsler

Arencibia has had problems with average, but is a solid talent and is currently being pressed by d'Arnaud

I know its a pipe dream....but I'd rather have d'Arnaud

 

[fordman84]

Was discussing Ian's situation with a buddy and he blew my mind. I know division rivals don't trade very often, but he said that OAK would be a good partner for us. Ian for a good young pitcher. I think I'd be ok with that, but that also got me thinking about SEA and Felix in that case. Wonder what package SEA would want for the King. Do you give up a really good everyday player or two for a great pitcher?


As for Ian in the outfield, it would depend on if he wants to be there. If not, I see this playing out like Soriano did for us.

 

[romeo212000]

No way do I want to trade Ian for a "good young pitcher". The only pitcher I trade Ian for is an ace.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Was discussing Ian's situation with a buddy and he blew my mind. I know division rivals don't trade very often, but he said that OAK would be a good partner for us. Ian for a good young pitcher. I think I'd be ok with that, but that also got me thinking about SEA and Felix in that case. Wonder what package SEA would want for the King. Do you give up a really good everyday player or two for a great pitcher?


As for Ian in the outfield, it would depend on if he wants to be there. If not, I see this playing out like Soriano did for us.

SEA is working hard on an extension for the King...

Jason A. Churchill ‏@ProspectInsider
Source tells me M's working pretty hard on an extension for King Felix. May have something done right before or right after World Series.

 

[Al Falfa]

if your are talking about Kinsler's defense, please prove me wrong:


Major League Leaderboards 2012 Second Basemen Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball


I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

You said Profar was a MUCH better fielder than Kinsler. Based on what?

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

You said Profar was a MUCH better fielder than Kinsler. Based on what?

My guess....is the quote listed below....

I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

 

[romeo212000]

if your are talking about Kinsler's defense, please prove me wrong:


Major League Leaderboards 2012 Second Basemen Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball


I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

Sorry bud, but defensive saber metrics are far from an exact science. I do know that Ian's range is among the top in the league as is his arm strength. I've seen Ian get to too many balls that should've been singles. Defensive saber stats are greatly flawed.

 

[romeo212000]

You said Profar was a MUCH better fielder than Kinsler. Based on what?

My guess....is the quote listed below....

He compares Profar to Ian based on what? Profars extensive ML experience?

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

He compares Profar to Ian based on what? Profars extensive ML experience?

Originally Posted by slugger82685
I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

 

[romeo212000]

Originally Posted by slugger82685
I know what I am talking about, I constantly look at these kinds of stats and read analyst opinions and views.

Again, I'd love to see what ML stats he uses that show Profar is a vastly superior defender to Ian.

 

[slugger82685]

Sorry bud, but defensive saber metrics are far from an exact science. I do know that Ian's range is among the top in the league as is his arm strength. I've seen Ian get to too many balls that should've been singles. Defensive saber stats are greatly flawed.

you are right it is far from an exact science, but please tell me a better way to evaluate the stats.....almost every stat has some kind of flaw too it, but it is the best available right now until someone comes out with something else.

And yes I do look at stats, why would you not look at stats when evaluating a player?...I have read numerous scouts state that Profar has a better range and arm than Andrus and please dont tell me you think Kinsler is a better fielder than Andrus, therefore Profar should be a better fielder than Kinsler.....no there is not MLB experience to base that on, but I do value scouts' opinions and when they are saying Profar is the best overall player in the minors and saying he has a better range and arm than even Andrus who is a top middle infielder in the game, please tell me how you could not think he would be better than 2B than Kinsler especially after the poor defensive season he just had.

Just a little bit of stuff I have read on Kinsler after this season:

Evan Grant suggests that Kinsler's defense has slipped to the point he should be moved off of second base, and there are those who say, he turned 30 and had a down season, its just going to get worse, the Rangers should dump him, his bad body language and his contract now while someone might take him off of their hands. Grant goes so far as to suggest that the Rangers should consider the extension a "mistake" and find someone to dump his contract on.

An embarrassment of riches in the middle infield - Lone Star Ball

Thats just one article from plenty I have read saying similar things. And you guys might think I am making outrageous claims or whatever but at least I am providing proof to backup my claims.....please show me other proof to prove me wrong.

 

[romeo212000]

FYI. You really shouldn't use Evan grant to make your point about anything...... ever.

 

[slugger82685]

FYI. You really shouldn't use Evan grant to make your point about anything...... ever.

FYI..I have still backed up my claims....FYI...you have showed absolutely nothing...FYI

 

[romeo212000]

FYI..I have still backed up my claims....FYI...you have showed absolutely nothing...FYI

Not exactly. Scouts are wrong about prospects all the time. Not saying they are about Profar but Ian is a proven major league commodity. Profar isn't yet is all I'm saying. Fwiw I see Elvis being traded because Boras is his agent and Profar taking over at short where he belongs.

 

[slugger82685]

Not exactly. Scouts are wrong about prospects all the time. Not saying they are about Profar but Ian is a proven major league commodity. Profar isn't yet is all I'm saying. Fwiw I see Elvis being traded because Boras is his agent and Profar taking over at short where he belongs.

i still dont think Andrus will cost as much as everyone is thinking....some interesting data I found for SS contracts:

The numbers that get bandied around for Elvis have absolutely no historical support. Using MLBTradeRumors.com Transaction Finder, there are only 6 contracts in history to exceed $70M for a SS, only 3 to exceed $140M and only 1(!) to ever exceed $20M in AAV.

Alex Rodriguez – SS – TEX (12/1/2000) FA
10 yr / $252.00MM ($25.2 AAV)
Age: 25
wRC+ leading up: 162, 125, 141, 138, 160
WAR leading up: 9.8, 4.6, 8.4, 4.8, 9.6

Derek Jeter – SS – NYY (2/1/2001) EXT
10 yr / $189.00MM ($18.9 AAV)
Age: 26
wRC+ leading up: 106, 110, 133, 157, 136
WAR leading up: 2.6, 4.3, 6.5, 7.5, 3.8

Troy Tulowitzki – SS – COL (11/30/2010) EXT
10 yr / $157.75MM ($15.8 AAV)
Age: 26
wRC+ leading up: 107, 77, 131, 142
WAR leading up: 5.6, 0.9, 5.7, 6.3

Jose Reyes – SS – MIA (12/4/2011) FA
6 yr / $106.00MM ($17.7 AAV)
Age: 28
wRC+ leading up: 122, 107, 123, 110, 104, 149
WAR leading up: 6.1, 5.8, 6.4, 0.8, 2.9, 6.2

Michael Young – SS – TEX (3/1/2007) EXT
5 yr / $80.00MM ($16.0 AAV)
Age: 30
wRC+ leading up: 101, 111, 136, 107
WAR leading up: 2.9, 3.1, 4.6, 3.9

Hanley Ramirez – SS – FLA (5/17/2008) EXT
6 yr / $70.00MM ($11.7 AAV)
Age: 24
wRC+ leading up: 120, 147
WAR leading up: 4.6, 5.7

Elvis Andrus – SS – TEX
???
Age: 24
wRC+ leading up: 86, 75, 94, 95
WAR leading up: 3.4, 2.0, 4.4, 4.2

Every other SS that got a deal with a total value greater than $70MM had multiple years as a well above average offensive player, even if they might be well below average defensively.

Also, each SS had had at least one 6 WAR season with the exception Micheal Young and Hanley Ramirez and Hanley had back to back 7 WAR seasons at age 25 & 26 right after signing his extension.

Elvis Andrus has never in his entire professional career, including the minor leagues, had an even above average wRC+. And that number counts his SB into his offense… by OPS+ it’s even worse.

Elvis has topped 4 WAR twice, and is only 24 years old… but the other players to get big money had already had strong offensive seasons at his age. So if he is going to “grow into it” he’s a late bloomer compared to his peers and after four years in MLB and two and a half years in the minors without ever showing above average offensive performance… expecting it to show up someday is very optimistic.

Adam has previously cited Derek Jeter as an example… his 10 year / $189M deal that is now 11 years old. With inflation it would obviously be worth much more… but Jeter had a 6.5 WAR season in his age 24 year with a wRC+ of 133. Jeter was an elite offensive performer at SS and Elvis has never approached that value or ability. Elvis has always been a better defender… but none of the SS to ever receive even half of what Adam thinks the Rangers should offer Elvis got that money because of their glove.

so to say we cant sign Andrus long term just because Boras is his agent doesnt really compute....he will make $4.8M next season and $6.4M in 2014, now Boras might seek something around $12M/year for a lot of years, but I really think something can be worked out in the range of $10M/year for maybe 9 or 10 years. That is definitely a comfortable contract for a top SS in the game.

 

[slugger82685]

And yes, scouts cant be right all the time about prospects, they are only human. But seeing its their job to evaluate talent and with increasing technology and stat measurements, they have been more accurate in recent years than years past so you cant just automatically discount their opinions based on some of the guys they were wrong about.

 

[romeo212000]

And yes, scouts cant be right all the time about prospects, they are only human. But seeing its their job to evaluate talent and with increasing technology and stat measurements, they have been more accurate in recent years than years past so you cant just automatically discount their opinions based on some of the guys they were wrong about.

I'm not discounting it. Just saying its not wise to state it as fact when he's really yet to be proven at the ML level.