157.1

[clyde_carbon]

and thats what drew brees does. grab a ton of yards on short stuff then hit some big throws. brees does throw the ball up a lot more, but we have the d and running game where we don't have to take those chances.

not to mention, smith isn't brees so i wouldn't want smith airing it out like that.

Roman has developed an offensive scheme that's filled with high-percentage passes. I don't think NO's offense is anything like ours.

 

[Bemular]

two passes aren't gonna make that big of a difference over 8 games...

Minus his 55 & 47 his YPA drops to 7.5 - just for the record outliers are nearly always a part of this stat being inflated.

Honestly, the day you become more enamored by his intangible skills than his stats (or perhaps recognize the absence of his intangible skills) is the day you will finally "get it".

 

[Flyingiguana]

Roman has developed an offensive scheme that's filled with high-percentage passes. I don't think NO's offense is anything like ours.

well it shouldn't be like what the saints have, they're the ones with drew brees and no running game.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Minus his 55 & 47 his YPA drops to 7.5 - just for the record outliers are nearly always a part of this stat being inflated.

Honestly, the day you become more enamored by his intangible skills than his stats (or perhaps recognize the absence of his intangible skills) is the day you will finally "get it".

just puts him below tom brady...

ya...

 

[clyde_carbon]

well it shouldn't be like what the saints have, they're the ones with drew brees and no running game.

Of course it shouldn't. You're the one that dropped Brees' name.

 

[clyde_carbon]

just puts him below tom brady...

ya...

Meh. The more he throws the more it'll revert back to his mean. I'll be impressed if it stays this high till the end of the year.

 

[Bemular]

just puts him below tom brady...

ya...

And your point is....???

 

[Flyingiguana]

another thing people miss is look at total yards and points per game. we've taken a big jump this year in both. we're in the top 5 in points per game.

with our run game we just dont have enough yards to go around to get big yards in the passing game, even if we had an elite qb.

 

[MHSL82]

If we removed the top two passes from all QBs, it would hurt most other QBs averages more because they'd likely have passes deeper than 55 and 47. (If they don't have longer passes, then scratch that.) Alex would then be higher in rank, which I don't think he should be. So it doesn't seem we can remove the outliers unless we did it to all QBs. It's pretty simple to prove that Smith isn't a deep passer, that YPA can be a system thing and not a QB thing in Smith's case, that Smith isn't the most accurate QB, etc. No need, IMO, to remove any passes from anyone in assessing the QBs. Citing Smith's YPA as proof end all be all is flawed without removing anything.

But in general, I see the point because the issue isn't rank, it's the overall number and the overall number is reduced if you remove the outliers. Let remove the negative or zero yards gains too, just kidding.

Aside from that, Smith's YPA is higher because of the high percentage passes ensure some yards over nothing, where as a deep attempt that falls incomplete lowers the average with no yards. These high percentage throws are made possible by are coaches, and the yards, as evidenced in the Cardinal game, are increased by the receivers YAC. Two passes affect the average quite a bit, but this preference of high percentage passes are more significant due to the number of passes it effects.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Meh. The more he throws the more it'll revert back to his mean. I'll be impressed if it stays this high till the end of the year.

what is the mean? smith has been improving as has our whole offense now that we have some consistency for the first time since...like the stone age.

every year since smith came back from his shoulder injury there has been improvement in his numbers. at 28 i dont think he's reached his ceiling. how much higher can that ceiling go, we should find out over the rest of the season. mediocre or not, harbaugh made the right decision sticking with smith even though most wanted to kick him to the curb.

 

[Bemular]

another thing people miss is look at total yards and points per game. we've taken a big jump this year in both. we're in the top 5 in points per game.

with our run game we just dont have enough yards to go around to get big yards in the passing game, even if we had an elite qb.

Our PPG are DOWN from last season and our yards are up appx 57 yards per game. How is that a "big Jump" in both?

 

[Bemular]

Minus his 55 & 47 his YPA drops to 7.5 - just for the record outliers are nearly always a part of this stat being inflated.

Honestly, the day you become more enamored by his intangible skills than his stats (or perhaps recognize the absence of his intangible skills) is the day you will finally "get it".

If we removed the top two passes from all QBs, it would hurt most other QBs averages more because they'd likely have passes deeper than 55 and 47.

Which is why I put in my post the part in bold.

 

[MHSL82]

Which is why I put in my post the part in bold.

My fault, I misread that. I thought the bold was just justifying why you removed it from Smith's. But rereading it, I can see it being applied to all QBs.

 

[Bemular]

what is the mean?

6.4 was his average prior to this season.

 

[Bemular]

I have used a QB rating calculator before and found certain things counter-intuitive that show its problems. I find that just by watching QBs, you get a better idea who is better than the others and I think seeing statistics like third down conversions, red zone conversion rate, etc. are much more helpful in determining a QBs effect on the game/team. The traditional QB rating is familiar and accessible more than others, so I do look at them.

What do you think about ESPN's QBR compared to and independant of the traditional QB rating?

The problem with statistics is often not the statistics but rather how they are created, interpreted and applied.

E.g., if you were asked to name five elite NFL QB's, (I assume) you could do this without so much as a peek at any stat sheet. Furthermore, you would very likely stay with your list despite any statistical evidence to the contrary.

The point is simply this, statistics do not tell the story they are the product of the story which leads to the problem that most nimrods such as Flyingiguana et. al., haven't a clue what either what statistics are or the story that created them.

So, what they do is just makeup a story to fit the statistics; such as, Alex Smith has a high QBr therefore he is suddenly a top-ten QB, and other really stupid shit like that.

When the statistics suddenly turn south, as they did during the Giants game, quite predictably they will switch from using statistics to support their delusion to making up excuses to support their delusion.

ESPN's QBR is garbage

 

[Flyingiguana]

Our PPG are DOWN from last season and our yards are up appx 57 yards per game. How is that a "big Jump" in both?

relative to the rest of the league...

 

[Flyingiguana]

6.4 was his average prior to this season.

and thats retarded to compare. he's a completely different qb over the past 2 seasons.

u mean to tell me that the past 2 seasons are a fluke and he's going to revert back to an avg that includes his rookie year and time when we didn't even have an offensive coordinator?

 

[Flyingiguana]

i dont think i seen anyone on these boards say smith is a top 10 qb. not sure where this is coming from. i think smith will improve over the rest of the year and would hit my top 10 list (also hoping he improves)

this is my top 10

brees
rodgers
brady
manning
eli
big ben
ryan
schaub
stafford
romo

i think smith is slightly improved over last season. the whole offense is benefiting from having the same coaches and system for a 2nd season. i'm expecting the whole offense to perform better.

 

[Bemular]

and thats retarded to compare. he's a completely different qb over the past 2 seasons.

u mean to tell me that the past 2 seasons are a fluke and he's going to revert back to an avg that includes his rookie year and time when we didn't even have an offensive coordinator?

No, THAT is retarded! This is where you and the other Alex Smith man whores go completely off the rails - Alex is MUCH closer to the same QB as he was when came into this league than he is different.

This is a perfect example of what I explained about you & others in my statistics post. You see statistics, you shove your head up your ass then pull out what ever made up story you want to fit the statistics and when statistics stop working you switch to excuses.

How about you actually learning the game then actually watching the games instead of just looking at statistics and making up stories and excuses. Perhaps if you watched the games with any measure of understanding of what was actually going on you might not make such idiotic statements as the one above.

As to Smith reverting back to 6.4 or not it doesn't matter - the point is that he is he will fall back. The type of offense he has been restricted to running dictates that. Again, if you watched and understood you would know this.

 

[ViperVisor]

This was a really terrible post. How you can't see the opposite case that could be made with slight changes is telling.

The problem with statistics is often not the statistics but rather how they are created, interpreted and applied.

This the the closest we got to a cogent point. Yes, the numbers are science. But we are dealing with a situation like Jurassic Park where we discovered pure QB DNA and are just comparing segments of today's QBs to that answer key.

E.g., if you were asked to name five elite NFL QB's, (I assume) you could do this without so much as a peek at any stat sheet. Furthermore, you would very likely stay with your list despite any statistical evidence to the contrary.

This is because I am already well aware of the stats and play of some QBs. Your contrary statistics would have to be weighty. You present it like a question of five elite hot ladies. That would make sense to be something statistics wouldn't change.

The point is simply this, statistics do not tell the story they are the product of the story which leads to the problem that most nimrods such as Flyingiguana et. al., haven't a clue what either what statistics are or the story that created them.

Reiterated more convulsion so you just threw in the nimrod comment.

So, what they do is just makeup a story to fit the statistics; such as, Alex Smith has a high QBr therefore he is suddenly a top-ten QB, and other really stupid shit like that.

High QB Rating = good logic is actually really stupid?

When the statistics suddenly turn south, as they did during the Giants game, quite predictably they will switch from using statistics to support their delusion to making up excuses to support their delusion.

When the statistics suddenly turn north, as they did during 2011 and 2012, quite predictably they will switch from using statistics to support their delusion to making up excuses to support their delusion.

ESPN's QBR is garbage

Not garbage but it has problems, when it was promo'd like mad you would see things that made it look in need of changes. I don't know if they have tried to do that or not. Haven't paid much attention to it.