For those who think Trout over miggy

[Darkstone42]

Why do people think miggy is a terrible defender? His arm makes him below avg to avg in my eyes....up until he got hurt, i dont remember him really hurting us in the field....i mean ryan raburn at 3rd was waaaaaaay worse.....sometimes i wonder if some fans even watch miggy play....i prolly missed 2-3 games all year....love DVR....just like i cant sit here and say a player from another team is terrible if ive only seen him play a few times and seen highlights on sportscenter.

He doesn't get to as many balls as other third basemen. It's not about committing errors, it's about not getting to as many balls.

It's the same reason Jeter's a lousy defender. He doesn't commit errors, but plays which would be routine for others he makes look difficult, and plays which would be difficult for others, he never even gets to the ball. If you don't get to the balls as much, you don't produce as many outs, which also means the other team gets more base runners, which in turn means more opportunities to score, which in turn means more runs.

 

[Cleaves2000]

"Trout, though, is a much better defender (despite being only average) and a much better baserunner than Cabrera. I highly value those two contributions, ergo I value Trout more highly as a baseball player."


Austin jackson and many other players are better defenders and baserunners than miggy also.....since you highly value those contributions, are they more valuable than miggy?

Is gomez more valuable?
Adam jones?


Some guys are 5 tool players....some are just ball players that hit....

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Here is my question to the Trout faithful -- If Trout was in the NL, where does he finish in the MVP voting?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Sabermatricians do have clutch stats. I cited one, WPA/LI, in which Cabrera led the league. Not all runs are the same to sabermatricians, either, as you would learn from looking at win probability plots for games. There is also a metric called "clutch."

Cabrera's clutch performance is a major plus in his favor, and it's part of what made him the best hitter in baseball. But once all other elements of the game are considered, Trout really closes the gap, and in fact even passes Cabrera.

Sabermetrics is a huge field, and it accounts for just about everything which can happen in a baseball game. Some things we can measure and model better than others, but the numbers, when viewed as a collective, with weighting of the numbers based on confidence in the metrics and the value you place on different aspects of the game, a pretty comprehensive picture can be drawn of what's happening.

Everyone knows Cabrera is a better hitter and a better clutch hitter than Trout. Everyone. I included that in my post.

Trout, though, is a much better defender (despite being only average) and a much better baserunner than Cabrera. I highly value those two contributions, ergo I value Trout more highly as a baseball player.

There seems to be a major disconnect between what sabermetrics are, what they include, and what people perceive about them. Just about every argument a person can make with "traditional stats" can be met with a sabermetric which accounts for it. RBIs are factored into what a hitter does overall, his "clutch," and the value of runs are factored in by his WPA/LI.

I would want Cabrera batting at the end of a close game. But over the course of a full game, over all facets, I want Trout.

actually according to dWAR he is not average defender... he is one of the worst CFs defensively... If you love sabremetrics you got to use it in all facets... But basically what i am getting from you is that you would rather have a CF be your best player than a first baseman... And i disagree... i would rather have the best hitter than the best player... I do include defense in my analysis, but offense is more important...

 

[Cleaves2000]

He doesn't get to as many balls as other third basemen. It's not about committing errors, it's about not getting to as many balls.

It's the same reason Jeter's a lousy defender. He doesn't commit errors, but plays which would be routine for others he makes look difficult, and plays which would be difficult for others, he never even gets to the ball. If you don't get to the balls as much, you don't produce as many outs, which also means the other team gets more base runners, which in turn means more opportunities to score, which in turn means more runs.

I understand that if your playing anywhere else but 1st or 3rd.....but those 2 positions have always had the huskier/bigger guys......i might agree if teams tried to bunt more on miggy and exploit that.....but teams actually didnt test miggy much....until he got hurt.....we used to wonder on the tiger boards why teams didnt try n bunt much......but i dont recall miggy just letting a crapload of hits get by him this year.....now jhonny peralta on the other hand is exactly what u were talking about.....low errors, but limited range. With detroits pitchers getting so many K's this year could also be why i dont remember miggy letting balls get thru.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Here is my question to the Trout faithful -- If Trout was in the NL, where does he finish in the MVP voting?

I had miggy and trout being the 2 best players in baseball... If Trout still does not make the playoffs even in the NL, it would probably give it to Trout because he was significantly better than everyone in the NL...

 

[Cleaves2000]

"well there have always been people on the analytical side versus old school baseball. back in the day when the new school guys dared to look at platoon splits and actually platooned positions. The problem is now with multiple cable shows and social media you get people that think they know more about baseball than the people actually playing the game.

As for the Trout issue, I do not get involved in all that. Trout supporters will hold to their all important WAR stat and nothing will ever change their mind. The problem is the MVP award is actually been copywrited by the BBWAA association and as such will never go to a player on a non playoff team (now that 5 teams in each league make the post season). How valuable can Mike trout be to a team when they finished under 500 in a division when they played the Astros 19 times?

mike Trout for 2013 on D. Zero OF assists (3 last season), UZR 4.4 (13.3 last season) and defensive runs saved of a negative 9 (positive 21 last year). Myself I thought a better case could have been made Trout last season. better D and the Angels actually were above 500 and had a better record than detroit in 2012 and didn't have the astros in their division."


That was from adrian2 on the tigers board......anyone that knows him, knows hes highly respected on here when it comes to baseball....i just thought this was pretty good

 

[Darkstone42]

I understand that if your playing anywhere else but 1st or 3rd.....but those 2 positions have always had the huskier/bigger guys......i might agree if teams tried to bunt more on miggy and exploit that.....but teams actually didnt test miggy much....until he got hurt.....we used to wonder on the tiger boards why teams didnt try n bunt much......but i dont recall miggy just letting a crapload of hits get by him this year.....now jhonny peralta on the other hand is exactly what u were talking about.....low errors, but limited range. With detroits pitchers getting so many K's this year could also be why i dont remember miggy letting balls get thru.

That's why positional adjustments exist. Because corner players can be a little bulkier, they tend to be better power hitters.

 

[Darkstone42]

actually according to dWAR he is not average defender... he is one of the worst CFs defensively... If you love sabremetrics you got to use it in all facets... But basically what i am getting from you is that you would rather have a CF be your best player than a first baseman... And i disagree... i would rather have the best hitter than the best player... I do include defense in my analysis, but offense is more important...

I don't trust defensive metrics for anything besides trends. I also look at the eyeball test, which includes scouting reports. The metrics and scouting compile, for me, to the conclusion that Trout is average defensively.

 

[da55bums]

"well there have always been people on the analytical side versus old school baseball. back in the day when the new school guys dared to look at platoon splits and actually platooned positions. The problem is now with multiple cable shows and social media you get people that think they know more about baseball than the people actually playing the game.

As for the Trout issue, I do not get involved in all that. Trout supporters will hold to their all important WAR stat and nothing will ever change their mind. The problem is the MVP award is actually been copywrited by the BBWAA association and as such will never go to a player on a non playoff team (now that 5 teams in each league make the post season). How valuable can Mike trout be to a team when they finished under 500 in a division when they played the Astros 19 times?

mike Trout for 2013 on D. Zero OF assists (3 last season), UZR 4.4 (13.3 last season) and defensive runs saved of a negative 9 (positive 21 last year). Myself I thought a better case could have been made Trout last season. better D and the Angels actually were above 500 and had a better record than detroit in 2012 and didn't have the astros in their division."


That was from adrian2 on the tigers board......anyone that knows him, knows hes highly respected on here when it comes to baseball....i just thought this was pretty good

so a highly respected guy would know that the BBWAA's 1st year of "copywriting" was 2003 and a guy on a LAST place team won the MVP...but hey, I sure it was just a misprint in saying "will never go to a player on a non playoff team". Even the greats make mistakes.

 

[Darkstone42]

I don't trust defensive metrics for anything besides trends. I also look at the eyeball test, which includes scouting reports. The metrics and scouting compile, for me, to the conclusion that Trout is average defensively.

Also, I think it's important that you know that most of my arguments are not in direct response to you, even when I quote you. You have a logical evaluation method with which I don't agree, but you at least respect the other side. That's fine. I'm more concerned with the crowd of largely Tigers fans who are asserting that the answer is Cabrera and Cabrera only, apologizing for him as even a slightly below average defender and baserunner, which simply isn't accurate, and discounting Trout's own contributions.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Also, I think it's important that you know that most of my arguments are not in direct response to you, even when I quote you. You have a logical evaluation method with which I don't agree, but you at least respect the other side. That's fine. I'm more concerned with the crowd of largely Tigers fans who are asserting that the answer is Cabrera and Cabrera only, apologizing for him as even a slightly below average defender and baserunner, which simply isn't accurate, and discounting Trout's own contributions.

I dont really use any sabremetrics statistics per say... but i am a math person so i create all my formulas... I found that one of the formulas i use is very close to RC27 so i kind of adapted it, but i changed the Total bases stat because i hate the 1 point for single 2 for double and so on...

I just dont understand people who dismiss the "team" stats... especially runs and RBIs... that drives me nuts actually... The way i see it is that those are the only stats that measure true production... not theoretical, but the production that actually happened... I agree that the better teams create more opportunities, and thats why i added more to it than just Runs and RBIs... but i truly dont trust anyone that does not include those stats at all...

 

[Cleaves2000]

so a highly respected guy would know that the BBWAA's 1st year of "copywriting" was 2003 and a guy on a LAST place team won the MVP...but hey, I sure it was just a misprint in saying "will never go to a player on a non playoff team". Even the greats make mistakes.

"Now that 5 teams in each league make the postseason".........i figured he was talking about ever since the playoffs went to 5 teams.....where did you see the BBWAA's first year of copyrights was 2003? Just wondering

 

[Darkstone42]

I dont really use any sabremetrics statistics per say... but i am a math person so i create all my formulas... I found that one of the formulas i use is very close to RC27 so i kind of adapted it, but i changed the Total bases stat because i hate the 1 point for single 2 for double and so on...

I just dont understand people who dismiss the "team" stats... especially runs and RBIs... that drives me nuts actually... The way i see it is that those are the only stats that measure true production... not theoretical, but the production that actually happened... I agree that the better teams create more opportunities, and thats why i added more to it than just Runs and RBIs... but i truly dont trust anyone that does not include those stats at all...

Looking at RISP stats, WPA/LI, and clutch, in my opinion, are a heck of a lot more telling than runs and RBIs. They show how well a player performed with opportunities, without including the team-dependent volume of opportunities.

It's also a misrepresentation to claim we don't look at runs and RBIs at all. We do, we just put more weight on other stats because we deem them more "true" in terms of real performance.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Looking at RISP stats, WPA/LI, and clutch, in my opinion, are a heck of a lot more telling than runs and RBIs. They show how well a player performed with opportunities, without including the team-dependent volume of opportunities.

I just find that sometimes the simpler statistics are better to use than the more advanced... especially when you turn the simple statistics into advanced ones...

 

[da55bums]

"Now that 5 teams in each league make the postseason".........i figured he was talking about ever since the playoffs went to 5 teams.....where did you see the BBWAA's first year of copyrights was 2003? Just wondering

actually it was 1908 after reading their Constitiution....2003 was the last award listed on their actual sites page..

.going through the Constitution of the BBWAA, it states nothing about MVPs only coming from playoff teams nor Cy Youngs only coming from playoff teams...BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America.

.the idea, even with 5 teams making the playoffs, is actually against what the awards are for, the regular season.....there are already MVPs for post season awards of the AL/NLCS and the WS...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Looking at RISP stats, WPA/LI, and clutch, in my opinion, are a heck of a lot more telling than runs and RBIs. They show how well a player performed with opportunities, without including the team-dependent volume of opportunities.

It's also a misrepresentation to claim we don't look at runs and RBIs at all. We do, we just put more weight on other stats because we deem them more "true" in terms of real performance.

Like i said i create my own formulas, so i have no clue what those formulas even say.... I think we have a tendency to believe that the statistics out there are the best statistics... Truth is, even though i still have tinkering to do to make my system perfect, i think it is more logical than anything i have seen or heard of...

 

[Ronnie]

Like i said i create my own formulas, so i have no clue what those formulas even say.... I think we have a tendency to believe that the statistics out there are the best statistics... Truth is, even though i still have tinkering to do to make my system perfect, i think it is more logical than anything i have seen or heard of...

Calling Dr. Sheldon Cooper

 

[StanMarsh51]

"well there have always been people on the analytical side versus old school baseball. back in the day when the new school guys dared to look at platoon splits and actually platooned positions. The problem is now with multiple cable shows and social media you get people that think they know more about baseball than the people actually playing the game.

As for the Trout issue, I do not get involved in all that. Trout supporters will hold to their all important WAR stat and nothing will ever change their mind. The problem is the MVP award is actually been copywrited by the BBWAA association and as such will never go to a player on a non playoff team (now that 5 teams in each league make the post season). How valuable can Mike trout be to a team when they finished under 500 in a division when they played the Astros 19 times?

mike Trout for 2013 on D. Zero OF assists (3 last season), UZR 4.4 (13.3 last season) and defensive runs saved of a negative 9 (positive 21 last year). Myself I thought a better case could have been made Trout last season. better D and the Angels actually were above 500 and had a better record than detroit in 2012 and didn't have the astros in their division."


That was from adrian2 on the tigers board......anyone that knows him, knows hes highly respected on here when it comes to baseball....i just thought this was pretty good

This the same guy who claims moneyball is a sham because the A's don't win in the playoffs, yet in Moneyball Beane basically says that his strategies are to for long term building in getting to the playoffs, and not fpr winning in the playoffs since that's more of a 'who gets hot at the right time thing'....so he's very critical of it yet it appears he doesn't understand what it's meant for...and he's widely respected why again?

 

[jalopy]

This the same guy who claims moneyball is a sham because the A's don't win in the playoffs, yet in Moneyball Beane basically says that his strategies are to for long term building in getting to the playoffs, and not fpr winning in the playoffs since that's more of a 'who gets hot at the right time thing'....so he's very critical of it yet it appears he doesn't understand what it's meant for...and he's widely respected why again?

I particularly like hip-hop's quote about not getting involved before his meandering diatribe. I have to give you and Element credit for trying to help educate these kids. I have to tell you, though, that it is not an easy task. They don't read entire posts and have great difficulty comprehending what they do read. The worst part about
the debate is they get less intelligible the more their numbers grow.

What Beane has done is nothing short of miraculous. It has changed baseball. To do what he has done over a sustained period of time is admired throughout baseball.

The Trout argument is what it is. Having lived in SoCal and seeing what Trout contributes on a daily basis, I would say there hasn't been a player of his caliber since a young Barry Bonds or Junior. He plays the game the right way. Miggy's skill with a bat are unmatched. The number of pitches he hits hard that are out of the zone is unbelievable. His plate discipline is also very good. My problem with him is that he is one dimensional. I don't hold his poor fielding against him as much as others simply because he is playing out of position for the benefit of the team. Still, if I had the good fortune to choose one of these two athletes to play on my team for one year, the answer for me is clearly Trout.