2014 Offseason Plans Thread

[jta4437]

no argument but if Martin can't get near the Mendoza line at the plate then he will hurting the team. he's hitting less than .200 against mostly AA, AAA and a few ML'ers, what will he do against all ML pitching. at least Choo is an adequate CF who can hit. wish we still had Gentry at least he can hit

The dreaded small sample size, maybe he's working on some different approaches to improve other parts of his game

If he hit .400 over 20 games, but didn't take a single walk, I'd be equally concerned

 

[jta4437]

I didn't get to read the entire Olney piece about Trout bc I'm not an insider, but in the beginning there is an interesting stat.

Most times on base in 2012-2013

1. Trout 564
2. Migs 562
3. Choo 556
4. Prince 542
5. McCutchen/Votto 541

I was surprised to see Prince so high on the list. And, Choo coupled with Prince at the top of the lineup would give Beltre and friends tons of chances to knock in runs. As teddy KGB says 'pay that man his money'


But, good lord, Trout has been a fucking machine. Putting up a Bonds-like 20.1 WAR last two seasons...what's more impressive is that it's his first 2 seasons. Incredible. LAA will regret not extending him last year.

Not even a full 2 seasons, he was in AAA for the first couple weeks 2 years ago

 

[Broseidon]

Not even a full 2 seasons, he was in AAA for the first couple weeks 2 years ago

Wow. And didnt LAA bring him up right before the cutoff date that would have saved them an extra year of service time? Like they kept him in AAA for no reason basically

 

[jta4437]

Wow. And didnt LAA bring him up right before the cutoff date that would have saved them an extra year of service time? Like they kept him in AAA for no reason basically

I'm pretty sure they waited til the deadline, it saved them a year of arbitration, super status or whatever that mess is, it was a cost saving measure long run, looking like a good idea based on what he might command in arbitration going forward, the longer they can delay that the better

 

[Broseidon]

I'm pretty sure they waited til the deadline, it saved them a year of arbitration, super status or whatever that mess is, it was a cost saving measure long run, looking like a good idea based on what he might command in arbitration going forward, the longer they can delay that the better

I think you're right that they avoided super-2 status, but he's arbitration eligible after this season, so they didn't wait long enough to save a full year of service time. He's going to break all arbitration records.

 

[jta4437]

I think you're right that they avoided super-2 status, but he's arbitration eligible after this season, so they didn't wait long enough to save a full year of service time. He's going to break all arbitration records.

Well there was also no reason to keep him in the minors either, that would have been beyond stupid just to save some money

 

[Broseidon]

Well there was also no reason to keep him in the minors either, that would have been beyond stupid just to save some money

Not just money, but an extra year of control. The Rays have been known to do the same, and they're pretty smart.

However, I imagine the Angels started him in AAA bc they thought their OF would have produced more than they did rather than as a cost saving measure.

 

[scotsman1948]

Because of the difference in arm strength. Rios has an average arm. You guys are right though, Choo would not be brought in to play center field. I do think if Cruz is brought it in without Choo that Cruz would play RF

Choo played 150 games in CF last year for Cinc so if it came down to who plays CF i think it's a no-brainer

 

[Broseidon]

Choo played 150 games in CF last year for Cinc so if it came down to who plays CF i think it's a no-brainer

I don't think JD signs Choo to play CF, unless something goes terribly wrong with Martin. Even then, Id probably give E.Beltre a shot at CF before I'd play Choo there.

 

[Duane1952]

I'm fairly certain Choo would play right and Rios could move to LF, either way I guess, but no way they put Choo in Center, if we sign him

The rangers would probably try beltre out there first.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

I didn't get to read the entire Olney piece about Trout bc I'm not an insider, but in the beginning there is an interesting stat.

Most times on base in 2012-2013

1. Trout 564
2. Migs 562
3. Choo 556
4. Prince 542
5. McCutchen/Votto 541

I was surprised to see Prince so high on the list. And, Choo coupled with Prince at the top of the lineup would give Beltre and friends tons of chances to knock in runs. As teddy KGB says 'pay that man his money'


But, good lord, Trout has been a fucking machine. Putting up a Bonds-like 20.1 WAR last two seasons...what's more impressive is that it's his first 2 seasons. Incredible. LAA will regret not extending him last year.

Here is said article...

During the winter meetings last week, general managers rotated through the ESPN workroom to answer thematic questions. Their responses are used going into and coming out of commercials during "Baseball Tonight," and one of the questions posed was: Who is the best player in the game?

I was unable to eavesdrop on all the answers given to Jennifer Chafitz, the producer in charge of that project, but the GMs I did hear stepped around that question -- maybe out of respect for their own players, and maybe to honor the general MLB rule that you shouldn't speak about another team's player.

If you gave the GMs truth serum, their answer would be unanimous, or almost unanimous, because the vast majority of executives view Mike Trout as the best player in the game -- and not by a small margin.

He is 22 years old as he wakes up today, at the outset of his career, and over the past two seasons, he has reached base 564 times. How does that stack up? Zachary Jones of ESPN Research dug this out for me:

Most times on base 2012-2013
Mike Trout: 564
Miguel Cabrera: 562
Shin-Soo Choo: 556
Prince Fielder: 542
Andrew McCutchen: 541
Joey Votto: 541

And here is how Trout stacks up in a few other key stats over the past two seasons.

Runs: First (238)
Extra-base hits: Sixth (140)
Stolen bases: Second (82)
WAR: First (20.1)

As you'll note, the stats mentioned above are all counting stats, and Trout's standing is all the more impressive when you consider that he didn't get called up until four weeks into the 2012 season. In terms of WAR, the No. 2 player is Robinson Cano, a full 4 WAR (16.1) behind Trout.

And in the divisional era (since 1969), just two players have had a higher two-year WAR than Trout.

Barry Bonds: 23.7 (2001-02)
Barry Bonds: 21.0 (2002-03)
Joe Morgan: 20.6 (1975-76)

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that Trout is fast approaching that time when he will be in position to wreck the Angels in arbitration, setting new records, given that his case argument will be: He is doing stuff that no player in the history of baseball has ever done before.

The Angels have three distinct paths to take with Trout:


1. They could trade him -- but let's dismiss that, because owner Arte Moreno is a smart guy and can draw upon the 1919 Red Sox's decision to swap Babe Ruth as an example of what not to do with an all-time great talent.

2. They go year to year with him on his contract decision, protecting themselves against the possibility that he gets hurt or regresses -- but also risking the very real chance that his arbitration cases will net $15 million to $30 million or more before he reaches free agency and sets up the craziest bidding war in the history of free agency. (For the record, he will be eligible for arbitation for the first time next winter.)

3. They could sign him to a long-term deal.

If the Angels go this route, of course, they can assume that signing him will cost a lot more than the $180 million that Moreno spent to buy the team a decade ago.

I asked a long-time agent who does not represent Trout what he might ask for in a negotiation for a multiyear deal, and he paused for a few moments, like someone savoring a good piece of steak.

"Why not do something that's never been done before?" he asked rhetorically.

What do you mean?

"Twelve years, $400 million."

No player has ever signed a contract guaranteeing $300 million. If what the agent suggests actually happened, Trout would simply skip over the hundreds-of-millions figure that starts with a "3" and just go right to the "4."

It seems insane. But it also seems possible, given that all of the usual negotiating rules for agents don't apply to Trout.

Sometimes, a team will give a young player a long-term deal gambling that they will continue to develop into a high-level player. This is what happened when the Rays signed Evan Longoria and what the Rockies did with Troy Tulowitzki.

But Trout alters that equation because he already is the best player in the game. He already is doing things that no other player has ever done. He has been in the big leagues only two years and 70 days, and has yet to accrue enough service time to qualify for arbitration -- but once he does that, he's in line to be paid over the top of any scale.

There's really no reason for Trout's agent, Craig Landis, to allow the Angels to buy out one or two of the free-agent seasons given that Trout might be making $15 million or more by the 2015 season, through arbitration. Trout really is in position to go one of two routes:

1. He could go through his arbitration year to year, setting records, and then become a free agent at age 26. If healthy -- and the chance of injury is his primary risk -- he may well wreck Alex Rodriguez's record for a contract of $275 million.

2. He could ask the Angels for the type of record-setting, $400 million-ish deal to sign now. In other words, something that has never been done before.

He is in a position with an absurd amount of leverage, in position to make an absurd amount of money. He figures to become the first player in history to sign a deal for more than $30 million annually.

The Angels have to keep that in mind as they plan out their future, and prepare budgets that are already becoming cramped under the confines of the $189 million luxury tax threshold, because of the forthcoming obligations to Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, this is what they already have on the books going into seasons beyond 2014:

2015: $117 million
2016: $112 million
2017: $58.4 million

All of that before they pay Trout -- who is seemingly destined to become the highest-paid player ever -- a single dime.

Everything that the Angels do should be informed by the reality that Trout will be making $30-plus million a year in the not-too-distant future. They need to start carving out that room ASAP. Yes, Matt Garza would make a lot of sense for them in 2014, to augment a rotation that should already be improved by the addition of Hector Santiago and (perhaps) Tyler Skaggs.

But if signing Garza requires a long-term, big-money deal, the Angels might be better suited taking somebody else on a shorter, cheaper deal, like a Bronson Arroyo.

One executive mused last year that the best thing about working for the Angels would be knowing that you could watch Trout every day in his career. There will be a day soon that Moreno and the Angels will be paying handsomely for that privilege.

 

[scotsman1948]

I don't think JD signs Choo to play CF, unless something goes terribly wrong with Martin. Even then, Id probably give E.Beltre a shot at CF before I'd play Choo there.

Not saying that they sign him to play CF. I'm saying that if Martin can't hit his weight than Choo would be the logical choice to move over there

 

[jamesx122]

Not saying that they sign him to play CF. I'm saying that if Martin can't hit his weight than Choo would be the logical choice to move over there

Not really, Choo can't play defense there to save his life just because he hits well doesn't mean you move him to a position where all he'll do his hurt you with his defense.

Also despite Martin's offensive struggles last year he still managed to be a 3 win player because of his defense and baserunning, so even if he's not hitting well he's still helping you out.

 

[RevSader]

Not really, Choo can't play defense there to save his life just because he hits well doesn't mean you move him to a position where all he'll do his hurt you with his defense.

Also despite Martin's offensive struggles last year he still managed to be a 3 win player because of his defense and baserunning, so even if he's not hitting well he's still helping you out.

Yeah, there is no way Choo is going to play CF if Martin is healthy. Would make zero sense.

 

[RevSader]

The scuttlebutt on ESPN today is that you shouldn't care about losing "sandwich" picks from the supplemental draft, because most of those players never make the roster anyway....

I laugh at short sided fucktards that think they know baseball and then post shit like that. No not every player that is drafted in that "sandwich" round makes your roster, but there are plenty of reasons you want those picks. Trout and Wacha are two very recent examples.

 

[scotsman1948]

The rangers would probably try beltre out there first.

Beltre is out of options and unless he makes the ML roster out of ST he's probably gone

 

[RevSader]

Beltre is out of options and unless he makes the ML roster out of ST he's probably gone

Which is why I can nearly promise you he will be on the 25 man just like Julio was last year.

 

[scotsman1948]

Which is why I can nearly promise you he will be on the 25 man just like Julio was last year.

don't see it. Choice has more chance of making the ML roster than Beltre unless we are really done and this is what we are going into 2014 with.

 

[RevSader]

don't see it. Choice has more chance of making the ML roster than Beltre unless we are really done and this is what we are going into 2014 with.

The Rangers had 5 OFs on opening day last year, and they will again this year.

Last year was Cruz, Gentry, Martin, Borbon, and Murphy to start the season.

This year it will be Rios, Martin, Beltre, possibly choice, and whoever else they sign or trade for before the season.

 

[ESPN Refugee]

We have OF depth and options with Choice, Martin, and Beltre but those are based on hopes and potential.