tOfficial RBs I'm not touching thread

[TKOSpikes]

Chris Johnson - 8 times in 79 games
Adrian Peterson - 15 times in 89 games
Jamaal Charles - 7 times in 65 games
Arian Foster - 6 times in 51 games

so you're saying McFadden is in good company?

When you look at just his NFL career, he is not a legit RB2, not until he can prove that he can stay healthy.

but the point is, when he's healthy he is and has been a RB1, not RB2... like Treff said, there's no committee here, there's no gunslinging QB or star WR... it's McFadden or bust in Oakland and that is what the risk is about and that is why I'll take the risk. I pass him on last year's production (zone blocking, Lisfranc recovery... hint, hint MJD) and am staring directly at 2010 and 2011 where he was a top 10 RB for 18 out of 32 games... and I know the 14 games missed is your point, but he was a 1st rounder in 2011 and until December 12th, whoever drafted him was very happy... and like I said they probably handcuffed with Bush and didn't miss too much. And yes, that has to be involved because when your RB gets injured, you replace him. He has no such handcuff these years though, with Reece being the primary beneficiary. On the flip side, in 2011, Chris Johnson owners (also 1st round) were majorly disappointed and couldn't just bench him, so which owner was hurt more?

Thanks brotha, I'd like to see some new names added to freshen up the conversation.

not much else on the RB board worthy of "not touching" ... unless we're getting into the Ronnie Hillmans (who I own in our coma league and am afraid he will not last as much as I thought) of the world. Unless we want to start a thread for receivers... or keep this one going on receivers...?

Hakeem Nicks anyone?

 

[Microwahevo]

How about Ahmad Bradshaw? I won't touch him, even as a flex player. Vick ballard didn't do tooooo terribly last year, and I don't see Bradshaw earning that "every down" starter role. Plus he always seems to have some kind of lingering injury.

 

[TKOSpikes]

And yes, I'm very much looking forward to the shit talking...perhaps a DMC/MJD wager?

I've already wagered haven't I? I picked him 20th. I think DMC outscores MJD in 2013, Sox thinks MJD outscores DMC in 2013... PUT IT ON THE BOARD! (ESPN Fantasy Focus bit)

(boy I'm glad these two RB's in question have three letter acronyms!)

 

[TKOSpikes]

How about Ahmad Bradshaw?

LOL -- me again ... picked him in the 5th and totally disagree with you, other than the lingering injury thing

 

[TKOSpikes]

My RB2 in this league is MJD, a guy I got in the 3rd round who has less of an injury concern and far more big fantasy days than DMC. My RB2 in my other league is Chris Johnson,

boy Sox, we're are head to head more than you think... other than our MJD debate (DMC is my RB2), I passed on Chris Johnson at 20 (he went next)... not sure where MJD went in either of our leagues.

 

[Sox33OSU]

so you're saying McFadden is in good company?



but the point is, when he's healthy he is and has been a RB1, not RB2... like Treff said, there's no committee here, there's no gunslinging QB or star WR... it's McFadden or bust in Oakland and that is what the risk is about and that is why I'll take the risk. I pass him on last year's production (zone blocking, Lisfranc recovery... hint, hint MJD) and am staring directly at 2010 and 2011 where he was a top 10 RB for 18 out of 32 games... and I know the 14 games missed is your point, but he was a 1st rounder in 2011 and until December 12th, whoever drafted him was very happy... and like I said they probably handcuffed with Bush and didn't miss too much. And yes, that has to be involved because when your RB gets injured, you replace him. He has no such handcuff these years though, with Reece being the primary beneficiary. On the flip side, in 2011, Chris Johnson owners (also 1st round) were majorly disappointed and couldn't just bench him, so which owner was hurt more?

If the dude was healthy, I'd put him in that company right now and put him as a late first rounder for sure.

To be honest, I think it would help him if he had another RB there that was worth a damn to help him stay fresh. He really needs some help out there and he just doesn't seem to have it. Marcel Reese is not terrible, but he's not to the level of what you'd hope to see a backup RB. Jennings and Taiwan what'shisnuts aren't gonna get it done either, and that OL is just not good. In regards to Johnson in 2011, that was his worst fantasy season ever, and it wasn't that much worse than McFadden's best. This is my entire point. McFadden reminds me of a guy us Buckeyes know - Beanie Wells. If he hadn't had so many injury issues, he could be a top 10 RB for sure, if not better. However, sometimes the injuries just make it too hard to take a guy like that, and Beanie's career numbers compare favorably to McFadden's.

 

[Sox33OSU]

How about Ahmad Bradshaw? I won't touch him, even as a flex player. Vick ballard didn't do tooooo terribly last year, and I don't see Bradshaw earning that "every down" starter role. Plus he always seems to have some kind of lingering injury.

I was always a big Bradshaw fan, and I liked him a lot more than Jacobs. I'd take him as an RB3 or RB4 this year.

 

[Sox33OSU]

boy Sox, we're are head to head more than you think... other than our MJD debate (DMC is my RB2), I passed on Chris Johnson at 20 (he went next)... not sure where MJD went in either of our leagues.

I saw you passed on CJ for DMC...

 

[Sox33OSU]

I've already wagered haven't I? I picked him 20th. I think DMC outscores MJD in 2013, Sox thinks MJD outscores DMC in 2013... PUT IT ON THE BOARD! (ESPN Fantasy Focus bit)

(boy I'm glad these two RB's in question have three letter acronyms!)

LOL, no joke. If they didn't, I wouldn't be having this conversation.

I meant like an avy bet or something.

 

[wilwhite]

I meant like an avy bet or something.

Ah, the memories....

Sox, if you want to say that McFadden is risk/reward but there's not much reward, I don't think you'll find many takers.

Anyway, if you take McFadden's best two years (which were pretty recent), he averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game that he started (and finished). If you look at Chris Johnson's two best years, he averaged 16.9. AP's best two years 17.4. MJD's two best 15.7.

This is Treff's "big dog" argument - if you start McFadden he can compete with any RB1 that week. You can't say that about anybody else after the first half dozen RBs. That's the reward.

The price is the weeks when you can't start him, and the brutal weeks when you can start him but he's knocked out early.

Honestly, I don't want to see McFadden in the opposing lineup on Week 1. I'd rather see Lamar Miller or MJD or Reggie or Gore or even SJAX or Morris.

(But I'll feel pretty good facing the same team in Week 10 after he just lost McFadden and has some scrub in there instead.)

I would have taken him in the third if Bell was gone and he'd made it back to me. But I knew he'd never get past Treff.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Ah, the memories....

Sox, if you want to say that McFadden is risk/reward but there's not much reward, I don't think you'll find many takers.

Anyway, if you take McFadden's best two years (which were pretty recent), he averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game that he started (and finished). If you look at Chris Johnson's two best years, he averaged 16.9. AP's best two years 17.4. MJD's two best 15.7.

This is Treff's "big dog" argument - if you start McFadden he can compete with any RB1 that week. You can't say that about anybody else after the first half dozen RBs. That's the reward.

The price is the weeks when you can't start him, and the brutal weeks when you can start him but he's knocked out early.

Honestly, I don't want to see McFadden in the opposing lineup on Week 1. I'd rather see Lamar Miller or MJD or Reggie or Gore or even SJAX or Morris.

(But I'll feel pretty good facing the same team in Week 10 after he just lost McFadden and has some scrub in there instead.)

I would have taken him in the third if Bell was gone and he'd made it back to me. But I knew he'd never get past Treff.

Well first off, I've never said there isn't much reward. I've said repeatedly that if he's healthy, he's a likely late first-rounder in my book. The problem is he's never healthy. Out of a possible 80 career games, he's missed 23, and left several others hobbled. I don't know why folks think I'm saying he's not a talented RB. He definitely is, but part of it is staying healthy, and dude can't do it. Like I said, if we're talking about an RB3 that I can grab several rounds later than the 2nd, I'm fine with it. However, when you're having to defend this guy with "how many 150 yard games does he have" and "how are his average games that he can finish", it seems like you're really, really reaching for a major boom or bust guy that, through his first 5 years, has been WAY more bust. For my RB2, I don't expect a major stud, but I expect a guy who's gonna give me 12-15 points every single week and occasionally break out for a 20 pointer, which both MJD and CJ are certainly capable of, moreso than DMC as they've both proven in their careers.

 

[wilwhite]

For my RB2, I don't expect a major stud, but I expect a guy who's gonna give me 12-15 points every single week and occasionally break out for a 20 pointer

I'd be down on McFadden too if I could get an RB2 like that.

 

[TREFF]

I'd be down on McFadden too if I could get an RB2 like that.

Lot of guys considered RB1's don't get those kind of numbers..must be nice to draft in leagues where those guys fall out of the sky.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I'd be down on McFadden too if I could get an RB2 like that.

Lot of guys considered RB1's don't get those kind of numbers..must be nice to draft in leagues where those guys fall out of the sky.

I mean on average. I understand they can have bad weeks now and then, but this is what I can expect. Bear in mind, I also am talking about PPR format.

For example, Chris Johnson is estimated between 13-14 points every week in my one PPR league. He's my RB2 behind Martin. I'm thrilled with that because it's realistic. It's not realistic in my PPR league to draft McFadden and feel comfortable he's gonna A. Be able to get that sort of average output and B. Even be healthy enough to get me that in 12 games out of the year.

In that same league, MJD is projected around 14-15 points every week.

McFadden is projected between 11-13, but you know it's highly likely that by year's end he'll have 4-5 zeros in there, too. Could CJ and MJD? Sure. But it isn't as likely if you go by their careers compared to DMC's.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I think the majority of the people understand that you prefer a player consistently on the field, with the chance to put up big numbers, as opposed to the guy that puts up big numbers, but misses tons of games.

Very understandable, I am in a similar position, and was thrilled that DMC was taken before me, and I was able to get CJ in the MBBRL. I also think that CJ will have a RB1 season with TEN's committment to the OLine in the offseason. Shonn Greene has always been a turd, and changing uniforms wont change that. He's CJ's insurance policy, not a vulture, imo.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I think the majority of the people understand that you prefer a player consistently on the field, with the chance to put up big numbers, as opposed to the guy that puts up big numbers, but misses tons of games.

Very understandable, I am in a similar position, and was thrilled that DMC was taken before me, and I was able to get CJ in the MBBRL. I also think that CJ will have a RB1 season with TEN's committment to the OLine in the offseason. Shonn Greene has always been a turd, and changing uniforms wont change that. He's CJ's insurance policy, not a vulture, imo.

I was really surprised to see McFadden over CJ. Not only has CJ had a much higher % of big games in his career but he's durable, so that shocked me. I had to have CJ as my keeper in my live draft Saturday, as last year wasn't so good. However, I'm with you on his season this year. I think with the OL being shored up and the coach saying he wants him more involved in the passing game, he could have a really good year. Not 2000 yards again good, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 1600 combined yards and 14-15 total TDs. Which would be fantastic.

Is CJ your RB2?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

yea - Foster with the 4th pick in the 1st, CJ in the 2nd. Semi-happy Foster fell to me, but I could really be hurting if Foster sits out some games to start the season

A lot of the people that I do live drafts with are sleeping on CJ. Landed him in the 3rd round in one draft last week, trying to do the same in my drafts this weekend.

 

[TKOSpikes]

and was thrilled that DMC was taken before me, and I was able to get CJ in the MBBRL. I also think that CJ will have a RB1 season with TEN's committment to the OLine in the offseason.

Warmack should be a nice player, but I think everyone is way too high up Andy Levitre's ass. ...and Monkey, you're welcome!

 

[Sox33OSU]

yea - Foster with the 4th pick in the 1st, CJ in the 2nd. Semi-happy Foster fell to me, but I could really be hurting if Foster sits out some games to start the season

A lot of the people that I do live drafts with are sleeping on CJ. Landed him in the 3rd round in one draft last week, trying to do the same in my drafts this weekend.

Did you get Tate for Foster? If so you're in great shape at the RB.

 

[wilwhite]

Okay, PPR may pop it up a few points a week, so 12 points isn't a crazy expectation for RB2.

But McFadden projected between 11-13 in PPR is either averaging in 3 or 4 zeroes over for games lost or it's insane.

11-13 pts per start for McFadden is what McFadden did last year in that terrible zone blocking scheme. Even Treff avoided him last year and warned everybody else to avoid him, too.

In PPR scoring in 2010 / 2011 McFadden averaged a cool 18 pts per start - that's eighteen - and that's including the two games where he was knocked out early. If you take those games out he averaged 20. Not that he sometimes managed to get 20. He averaged 20.

Here are his PPR scores for the six games he finished in 2011: 16, 31, 32, 15, 8, 16

MJD may do better than DMC over the season, but if you only count starts, DMC will clobber him, and in PPR he will absolutely demolish him. And MJD isn't right physically either.