tOfficial RBs I'm not touching thread

[Sam Sportboy]

I'll give you a great example, even though it's a different position --

Matthew Stafford gets hurt in his first two seasons, everyone considers him "injury prone", so he goes late in fantasy drafts in 2011, only to play all 16 games, throw for 5000 yards and 41 TD! So the next year, he's a top 5 guy right? Well, drafted that way for the most part (give or take a few), and what happens? Half the TDs, on basically the same surrounding stats, with more pass attempts.

QUOTE]

That is a great example. Got him in the 10th round of my money league and guess what? Won that league EASY!

 

[TREFF]

As for the question posed to me.. yes without a doubt. Seeing as the two behind me had AP and Martin. .it seemed reasonable that someone of that group would still be there 4 picks later...but not anyone that I wanted.
If a PPR, maybe I'd have grabbed Bush..dunno.

 

[TKOSpikes]

You've lost me on the Stafford comparison.

It's about perceived value at the draft. Stafford came in as a hot prospect, broke out when people "gave up", and shit'er when people jumped back on. It's about the upcoming season and not the one(s) that just happened.

My whole point and I wish you would just say, "Oh, I hear what you're saying"... is that I believe the risk is worth it, to take him over CJ and MJD and Gore, for me, in 2013, under the impression that he finally gets a season in. I understand that you feel it is not worth the risk at all.

But I still think you're flip-flopping when asked to judge without health -- in other words, project 16 games from each of these 4 players (MJD, CJ, Gore and DMC) and what do you come out with?

 

[jdwills126]

With so many teams using RBC it's so hard to find a plug and play guy week in and out!

I would normally stay away from DMC but he is in a contract year and if he falls to make him good value I will go.

Demarco Murray is a tough one to judge. If he slips to the third he is worth it.

Steven Ridley I like but who knows what rotation the Pats will come up with.

The only guys I will put in my Do Not Draft list are:

1. Frank Gore - I think Harbaugh wants him replaced and has since day 1.

2. A. Bradshaw - guy gets injured getting out of bed.

3. Any Jet RB, until they get a passing attack they will have to deal with 8 in the box.

4. BGE - good goal line but I think the rookie gets 1st team very soon.

 

[TKOSpikes]

and I'm being rounded here but --

Gore = 250 carries, 1100 - 6 TD... 25 catches, 200 - 1 TD
MJD = 260 carries, 1250 - 4 TD... 30 catches, 300 - 2 TD
CJ = 260 carries, 1300 - 6 TD... 35 catches, 400 - 4 TD

DMC = 240 carries, 1400 - 10 TD... 45 cathces, 500 - 4 TD


...and please don't answer with, "it would never come to that, because DMC can't make it..."

 

[TKOSpikes]

With so many teams using RBC it's so hard to find a plug and play guy week in and out!

I would normally stay away from DMC but he is in a contract year and if he falls to make him good value I will go.

Demarco Murray is a tough one to judge. If he slips to the third he is worth it.

Steven Ridley I like but who knows what rotation the Pats will come up with.

The only guys I will put in my Do Not Draft list are:

1. Frank Gore - I think Harbaugh wants him replaced and has since day 1.

2. A. Bradshaw - guy gets injured getting out of bed.

3. Any Jet RB, until they get a passing attack they will have to deal with 8 in the box.

4. BGE - good goal line but I think the rookie gets 1st team very soon.

new blood, new names, I like... I'm getting a headache.

 

[Sox33OSU]

and I'm being rounded here but --

Gore = 250 carries, 1100 - 6 TD... 25 catches, 200 - 1 TD
MJD = 260 carries, 1250 - 4 TD... 30 catches, 300 - 2 TD
CJ = 260 carries, 1300 - 6 TD... 35 catches, 400 - 4 TD

DMC = 240 carries, 1400 - 10 TD... 45 cathces, 500 - 4 TD


...and please don't answer with, "it would never come to that, because DMC can't make it..."

Are those projections? Also, you do know that CJ has almost a half yard better YPA for his career than DMC, so why does he have less yards on more carries?

 

[TKOSpikes]

Are those projections? Also, you do know that CJ has almost a half yard better YPA for his career than DMC, so why does he have less yards on more carries?

well, like I said, I wasn't being precise, and more importantly, it's about 2013!!!! Not averages, last years, 2009's or anything else. What say you?

 

[TKOSpikes]

CJ ypc

2008 - 4.9
2009 - 5.6
2010 - 4.3
2011 - 4.0
2012 - 4.5

260 carries for 1300 is 5.0 ypc, consider yourself lucky I went that high

 

[Microwahevo]

I have a feeling, and it may be a reach(like Lamar Miller in the 2nd rnd reach), but this debate over the 3-letter acronym RBs will never end.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I have a feeling, and it may be a reach(like Lamar Miller in the 2nd rnd reach), but this debate over the 3-letter acronym RBs will never end.

I hear ya... I just want him to answer the question without .. "but health" in it. Cause so far, he's "in the company" of the best, but there's no reward for the risk. Sounds like fence jumping to me. I know he thinks MJD and CJ will PLAY more than DMC.


but I"m done, I promise, this has gone on long enough, and it's probably getting annoying to others... new names are there for the taking! Sox, I guess we'll just have to wait for the season to unfold.

 

[Sox33OSU]

well, like I said, I wasn't being precise, and more importantly, it's about 2013!!!! Not averages, last years, 2009's or anything else. What say you?

I say you're being a fool, giving DMC a 5.83 YPC average that is far higher than anything he's ever done in his career. I mean, at this point, you're just pulling numbers out of your ass with nothing in the slightest to support them, so it seems our back and forth may be coming to an end.

CJ ypc

2008 - 4.9
2009 - 5.6
2010 - 4.3
2011 - 4.0
2012 - 4.5

260 carries for 1300 is 5.0 ypc, consider yourself lucky I went that high

I consider myself lucky that I go by the stats and generally do very well in fantasy leagues. I consider myself lucky that CJ is a healthy RB with a career YPA of 4.7 and he's my RB2 in a PPR league. I care not about some random stats you arbitrarily are posting that are quite literally based on nothing at all.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I hear ya... I just want him to answer the question without .. "but health" in it. Cause so far, he's "in the company" of the best, but there's no reward for the risk. Sounds like fence jumping to me. I know he thinks MJD and CJ will PLAY more than DMC.


but I"m done, I promise, this has gone on long enough, and it's probably getting annoying to others... new names are there for the taking! Sox, I guess we'll just have to wait for the season to unfold.

I can't tell if you're just trolling at this point or not.

I've said repeatedly, like over and over, that DMC is a great back WHEN HEALTHY.

I've also pointed out, over and over, that he has NEVER BEEN HEALTHY FOR A FULL SEASON IN HIS CAREER.

Therefore, I'm choosing a back that has put up similar or better numbers for his career, and he's done it with MUCH more frequency because he isn't busy missing 25-30% of every season on average.

 

[jdwills126]

At some point in time MJD will have a drop off. And with teams not respecting the Jags passing attack I will only take MJD if he is value. Miller, Bush, Sproles (PPR), CJ2K - 800, and Charles look to be better bets IMO.

I think the better statement is at what point is a guy a good pick?

CJ2K = late 2nd early 3rd?

David Wilson Mid 2nd?

A. Bradshaw in the 4th?

My morales and will not pick can be compromised by getting the guy as a steal.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I don't see Brown being as big a deal in NY as others do.

but I'd be shocked to see Wilson get under 25 total touches a game

Sox - you see any Giants games the past few years?

1) Coughlin, although he didnt invent it, is one of the champions of RBBC

2) NYG defense isnt what it used to be, and their pass rush is a far cry from what it was when they were SB champs. Weaker defense = more passing, less running. (I know that isnt a written in stone rule, but it tends to unfold that way) NYG will not be running out the clock in very many games this year, just a hunch I have.

3) Brown was more than just good/ok when he was getting a bunch of carries last year. He was damn near great. 5.3 YPC in the 3 games he had over 10 attempts, 8 TDs last year -- including a stretch of 5 straight games with a TD at the end of the season

4) Eli passes to his WRs, not his RBs. Bradshaw/Brown/Wilson combined for total of 39 catches last year. Guess who had the least? Wilson, with a less than robust, 4 rec. Brown had 12. Since Wilson is more of a homerun hitter, that tells me 1 thing, Brown > Wilson at pass protection

2012
Wilson - 71att, 358yds, 4TDs
Brown - 73att, 385yds, 10TDs

I'm seeing at best, a 60-40 split that favors Wilson. Not a hands down, gonna eat up all the stats, machine like you are making him out to be. I also don't think that any team in the NFL (outside of the Vikings, of course) plan on giving any 1 RB +25 touches per week. Maybe CLE could be tossed into that group with MIN.

 

[wilwhite]

Sox proposed an avi bet - this thread will improve when someone takes him up on it.

Old MBBRLers may remember this avi that a certain someone had to carry around for a month:

 

[Sox33OSU]

Sox - you see any Giants games the past few years?

1) Coughlin, although he didnt invent it, is one of the champions of RBBC

2) NYG defense isnt what it used to be, and their pass rush is a far cry from what it was when they were SB champs. Weaker defense = more passing, less running. (I know that isnt a written in stone rule, but it tends to unfold that way) NYG will not be running out the clock in very many games this year, just a hunch I have.

3) Brown was more than just good/ok when he was getting a bunch of carries last year. He was damn near great. 5.3 YPC in the 3 games he had over 10 attempts, 8 TDs last year -- including a stretch of 5 straight games with a TD at the end of the season

4) Eli passes to his WRs, not his RBs. Bradshaw/Brown/Wilson combined for total of 39 catches last year. Guess who had the least? Wilson, with a less than robust, 4 rec. Brown had 12. Since Wilson is more of a homerun hitter, that tells me 1 thing, Brown > Wilson at pass protection

2012
Wilson - 71att, 358yds, 4TDs
Brown - 73att, 385yds, 10TDs

I'm seeing at best, a 60-40 split that favors Wilson. Not a hands down, gonna eat up all the stats, machine like you are making him out to be. I also don't think that any team in the NFL (outside of the Vikings, of course) plan on giving any 1 RB +25 touches per week. Maybe CLE could be tossed into that group with MIN.

I'm admittedly not a NYG expert, I'm just going off of what I saw towards the end of last season. Wilson went from getting hardly any touches at the beginning of the year to being the 7th best fantasy RB in the NFL over the final 4 weeks of the season. I didn't figure a guy like Coffman would spend a first round pick on a RB without using him a LOT (the last time he did this was in 99 in Jax with Fred Taylor, who he ran as much as he could when he wasn't injured). I'm not saying Andre Brown is chopped liver by any means, I just think with the investment in Wilson they're gonna use him until he gives them a reason not to.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Sox proposed an avi bet - this thread will improve when someone takes him up on it.

Old MBBRLers may remember this avi that a certain someone had to carry around for a month:

Yeah and I also remember a tag line that he didn't wear...................

 

[TKOSpikes]

Ha, I actually love a RB that can reach out and get 30, and also one that can last an entire season, which is why I like MJD over DMC. Be fair now. Back in '11 MJD hit 20 points 5 (nearly 6) times, and broke 30 (almost hit 40) once himself. He's just more a of a sure thing. He has just as much big game potential as DMC but he's a whole hell of a lot more likely to last the entire season.

Long season to go, but we're only in Week 3, and MJD owners are scrambling while DMC owners are not. Just sayin'

...first punch goes to TKO.

 

[wilwhite]

I just think with the investment in Wilson they're gonna use him until he gives them a reason not to.

That was unfortunately prophetic.