tOfficial RBs I'm not touching thread

[Sox33OSU]

Okay, PPR may pop it up a few points a week, so 12 points isn't a crazy expectation for RB2.

But McFadden projected between 11-13 in PPR is either averaging in 3 or 4 zeroes over for games lost or it's insane.

11-13 pts per start for McFadden is what McFadden did last year in that terrible zone blocking scheme. Even Treff avoided him last year and warned everybody else to avoid him, too.

In PPR scoring in 2010 / 2011 McFadden averaged a cool 18 pts per start - that's eighteen - and that's including the two games where he was knocked out early. If you take those games out he averaged 20. Not that he sometimes managed to get 20. He averaged 20.

Here are his PPR scores for the six games he finished in 2011: 16, 31, 32, 15, 8, 16

MJD may do better than DMC over the season, but if you only count starts, DMC will clobber him, and in PPR he will absolutely demolish him. And MJD isn't right physically either.

Point #1: You're propping him up for a whopping 6 - that's 6 - finished games out of 16. That proves my point how much of a reach he is that this is your ammo for the guy.

Point #2: Since we're talking about 2011, here are MJD's point totals: 15, 13, 19, 9, 14, 11, 12, 14, 22, 21, 19, 24, 37, 12, 24, 17. That's just under 18 PPG, so not getting "absolutely demolished" in the slightest by McFadden, but what I love the most? It's 16 games, not 6. This is my entire point. You can have your 5 weeks of awesome production, 1 week of below average production and 10 weeks of nothing. I'd rather have 11 weeks of awesome production, 3 weeks of average production and 2 weeks of below average production.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Jags are team I am avoiding altogether this season. I just feel that MJD gets drafted early, or when he should be, and never falls to a spot where I consider him a value. With Blackmon's bad attitude + suspension, I'll let someone else worry about that shit. Shorts saw a little bump up in ADP with that Blackmon suspension, and I'd just as well rather see him on someone else's team, unless I can get him late.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Jags are team I am avoiding altogether this season. I just feel that MJD gets drafted early, or when he should be, and never falls to a spot where I consider him a value. With Blackmon's bad attitude + suspension, I'll let someone else worry about that shit. Shorts saw a little bump up in ADP with that Blackmon suspension, and I'd just as well rather see him on someone else's team, unless I can get him late.

I mean, I got MJD in the 3rd. He's having no lingering effects from the foot, which is the only injury that's ever really affected him. Before last season, he'd never missed more than 2 games in a season which is pretty damn good. His OL isn't great but it's not terrible. I'm worried about Gabbert allowing defenses to move up in the box, but that happened in 2011 too, and all MJD did was lead the league in rushing. Really, the only thing at all that can hold MJD back is a new injury, because right now he's healthy. When a guy shows no signs of being hurt on the field and is saying stuff like "Getting tackled was great.", I'm comfortable.

 

[TREFF]

I give..Sox just doesn't like a RB that can reach out and touch 30..he's got a solid point that DMC will most likely miss a couple or more, games and that's enough for him to let his opposition have those points. Fair enough..just wish there was more people like that in the A league.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I give..Sox just doesn't like a RB that can reach out and touch 30..he's got a solid point that DMC will most likely miss a couple or more, games and that's enough for him to let his opposition have those points. Fair enough..just wish there was more people like that in the A league.

Ha, I actually love a RB that can reach out and get 30, and also one that can last an entire season, which is why I like MJD over DMC. Be fair now. Back in '11 MJD hit 20 points 5 (nearly 6) times, and broke 30 (almost hit 40) once himself. He's just more a of a sure thing. He has just as much big game potential as DMC but he's a whole hell of a lot more likely to last the entire season.

You wish there were more guys who argued with you incessantly in the A league?

 

[TKOSpikes]

That's your point and that's our point. We concede to your's, but you won't concede to ours? Okay, you won't touch DMC, then you say it's not about his talent, and you'd rank him up at the top if he was healthy... but won't concede that he's better on a game to game basis? You're a hard one to fish, Sox.

 

[wilwhite]

So for fantasy teams with MJD and DMC facing each other in 2011, MJD would have won by a handful Week 5, essentially tied Week 1, lost by a handful weeks 4 and 6, and been demolished Weeks 2 and 3. After that, obviously, MJD was a better deal because DMC was out.

MJD started 35 games over the past three years. DMC started 32.

Overall, starting RBs average about 14 games played a year. So far DMC has averaged about 11, so basically instead of planning to cover two or three games for a missing RB1, with DMC you should plan to cover five or six. But nobody's taking him as RB1 anyway; he's being drafted as a RB2, so you may have to cover a third of your season with your RB3 in the RB2 slot if you take McFadden.

I'm not going to say anyone's crazy for taking MJD over McFadden this year - or even for taking Sproles over McFadden. But it's a strategy question. I'm in a hole at RB in the A league, and if I could have grabbed DMC late in the third I would have taken him because those games that he plays I'd be favored, but it would mean I'd have to unbalance my team to have the RB depth for the weeks he'd miss.

It's a strategy question, and a legitimate one. Sounds like you're denying that such a strategy has any legitimacy, which is probably why people won't let go.

 

[Sox33OSU]

That's your point and that's our point. We concede to your's, but you won't concede to ours? Okay, you won't touch DMC, then you say it's not about his talent, and you'd rank him up at the top if he was healthy... but won't concede that he's better on a game to game basis? You're a hard one to fish, Sox.

Well we looked at the per game thing one games started in 2011, which was the best fantasy season for both, and the difference was like .5 points per week or something negligible like that. The difference was MJD played in 10 more games. I'm saying that DMC's game-to-game talent is moot because he's never been able to be healthy for an entire season. He misses, on average, almost 5 games a season (23 games in 5 seasons). Even right now he's nursing yet another shoulder injury he got in their recent game against the Saints. He is constantly nursing some sort of injury. Constantly. Meanwhile, MJD is fully healthy right now. When you're talking about a RB who has put up, on a per game basis, very similar fantasy numbers in MJD but has been far healthier in his career, I truly don't get your point that DMC is a better choice.

So for fantasy teams with MJD and DMC facing each other in 2011, MJD would have won by a handful Week 5, essentially tied Week 1, lost by a handful weeks 4 and 6, and been demolished Weeks 2 and 3. After that, obviously, MJD was a better deal because DMC was out.

MJD started 35 games over the past three years. DMC started 32.

Overall, starting RBs average about 14 games played a year. So far DMC has averaged about 11, so basically instead of planning to cover two or three games for a missing RB1, with DMC you should plan to cover five or six. But nobody's taking him as RB1 anyway; he's being drafted as a RB2, so you may have to cover a third of your season with your RB3 in the RB2 slot if you take McFadden.

I'm not going to say anyone's crazy for taking MJD over McFadden this year - or even for taking Sproles over McFadden. But it's a strategy question. I'm in a hole at RB in the A league, and if I could have grabbed DMC late in the third I would have taken him because those games that he plays I'd be favored, but it would mean I'd have to unbalance my team to have the RB depth for the weeks he'd miss.

It's a strategy question, and a legitimate one. Sounds like you're denying that such a strategy has any legitimacy, which is probably why people won't let go.

I'm also taking MJD as an RB2. We're not talking about either as an RB1, we're talking about both as an RB2. Both have huge game potential, but MJD has been far more consistent. You mention their starts over the last 3 years, but it's an anomaly because MJD started 30 games in 2010-2011, like he has his entire career. Last year was his only year where he's missed significant time, and that injury is healed. McFadden has constant nagging injuries (he's had 7 different injuries that have cost him time in his career), and one of his biggest (shoulder) is hurt yet again now.

Guys, I'm not sure where I'm seeing any logic to taking DMC over MJD. Both are big time PPR guys. Both have shown the ability to have monster games. Both are the unquestioned #1 on their team. However, DMC has shown a constant string of injuries that have made him a bust for 4 of his 5 years in the NFL for fantasy owners, while MJD has had 1 season where he missed significant time and he's now healthy. Where's the logic to owning DMC over MJD coming from?

 

[TREFF]

You wish there were more guys who argued with you incessantly in the A league?

No what I'm saying is that if one or two more guys felt the same way you do, my RB2 would be DMC and not Montee freaking Ball..for at least ten weeks, and then by the time he goes down, Ball, I'm hoping, will have a good hold on things and than I wouldn't feel so bad promotingvhim from #3 to #2.

Its all well and good to go MJD over DMC..but when DMC vs the shitpile that was left when my second pick came around, even you would've thought DMC looked pretty good.

 

[Sox33OSU]

No what I'm saying is that if one or two more guys felt the same way you do, my RB2 would be DMC and not Montee freaking Ball..for at least ten weeks, and then by the time he goes down, Ball, I'm hoping, will have a good hold on things and than I wouldn't feel so bad promotingvhim from #3 to #2.

Its all well and good to go MJD over DMC..but when DMC vs the shitpile that was left when my second pick came around, even you would've thought DMC looked pretty good.

Well it's all relative. I've been hearing that Hillman has looked like shit, so Ball may be in line early (if he can get his pass pro up to snuff), so you may have a decent RB2 ready to go.

If I had my choice at RB2 between like DMC, Chris Ivory, Ryan Mathews, Mark Ingram, Ahmad Bradshaw and Deangelo Williams, I'd go DMC. But I'd never let it get to that point. You said you got him in the 3rd?

 

[wilwhite]

Where's the logic to owning DMC over MJD coming from?

Higher ceiling. And with all the knee and ankle issues MJD played through in the last few years, and then this latest foot problem, it's not clear MJD's even a safer bet to start more games than the younger DMC. (Remember, we're trying to gauge this coming year, so previous injury history is only one piece of the puzzle.)

 

[TREFF]

Well it's all relative. I've been hearing that Hillman has looked like shit, so Ball may be in line early (if he can get his pass pro up to snuff), so you may have a decent RB2 ready to go.

If I had my choice at RB2 between like DMC, Chris Ivory, Ryan Mathews, Mark Ingram, Ahmad Bradshaw and Deangelo Williams, I'd go DMC. But I'd never let it get to that point. You said you got him in the 3rd?

Heres the basic scenario. .drafted #3 took Charles..by the tine my second pick came around..all that was left, basically, were the names you listed, plus a couple others like those. Since I didn't want reach for a RB like them I took Julio Jones. .in the third the shitpile was even thinner so I took Randall Cobb..with the thinking that at this point, any RB I take now isn't going to be any better than what I can get in the fourth/fifth. Don't recall whether I got Ball in the 4th or the 5th but he was basically the last RB left who most project to be a starting RB.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Higher ceiling. And with all the knee and ankle issues MJD played through in the last few years, and then this latest foot problem, it's not clear MJD's even a safer bet to start more games than the younger DMC. (Remember, we're trying to gauge this coming year, so previous injury history is only one piece of the puzzle.)

I guess I don't see the higher ceiling part you're talking about. MJD has had all sort of explosive games in his career, just like MJD, but then he's been way healthier.

MJD had those injuries but nothing that's ever slowed him down to where he was missing time. As I mentioned before, the only injury he's had that's cost him more than 2 games in any season was his foot from last year. He is also only 2 years older than DMC.

Looking at this coming year, neither of them is a sure thing, but what RB2 ever really is? I know DMC has tremendous potential. I can acknowledge that. For my RB2 though, I need a guy I can count on throughout the year and not just for a few big weeks and then inconsistency/nothing.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Heres the basic scenario. .drafted #3 took Charles..by the tine my second pick came around..all that was left, basically, were the names you listed, plus a couple others like those. Since I didn't want reach for a RB like them I took Julio Jones. .in the third the shitpile was even thinner so I took Randall Cobb..with the thinking that at this point, any RB I take now isn't going to be any better than what I can get in the fourth/fifth. Don't recall whether I got Ball in the 4th or the 5th but he was basically the last RB left who most project to be a starting RB.

Well let me ask you this - would you take DMC over Demarco Murray, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush? Because it looks like all of those guys were available when you took Julio. (BTW - you snagged Ball in the 4th).

 

[wilwhite]

would you take DMC over Demarco Murray, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush?

Murray's just as bad as DMC from an injury standpoint but has a lower ceiling; Gore I agree with you so he's out; Miller is merely potential; D. Wilson's upside is capped by Brown; Reggie and Sproles aren't injury-free either....

So for me it would be between Reggie, Miller and DMC, and would depend how my team was shaping up and how many other RBs I would expect to vanish before my next RB pick. If I felt I was in trouble at WR I'd take Reggie or Miller so I could leave the RB spot alone for a while; if I felt I was good at WR but mediocre overall I'd take the chance that DMC could elevate my team, especially if I was close to one of the turns and there was a chance Miller, Reggie or D. Wilson would still be there for my next pick.

If DMC was gone, I'd probably treat Murray the same way I was treating DMC.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Murray's just as bad as DMC from an injury standpoint but has a lower ceiling; Gore I agree with you so he's out; Miller is merely potential; D. Wilson's upside is capped by Brown; Reggie and Sproles aren't injury-free either....

So for me it would be between Reggie, Miller and DMC, and would depend how my team was shaping up and how many other RBs I would expect to vanish before my next RB pick. If I felt I was in trouble at WR I'd take Reggie or Miller so I could leave the RB spot alone for a while; if I felt I was good at WR but mediocre overall I'd take the chance that DMC could elevate my team, especially if I was close to one of the turns and there was a chance Miller, Reggie or D. Wilson would still be there for my next pick.

If DMC was gone, I'd probably treat Murray the same way I was treating DMC.

Agree on Demarco on the injury risk. I actually would much rather have Gore than DMC. Miller and Wilson both have a ton of potential for big years, and I don't see Brown being as big a deal in NY as others do. He'll get his carries, but I'd be shocked to see Wilson get under 25 total touches a game. I know Sproles and Reggie have missed some time, but nothing like McFadden (Bush has missed less games in 2 more years in the league, with only 1 missed game in the last 2 years). I love Bush in any format this year. Having him, Wilson or Miller as an RB3 would make me very happy.

 

[TKOSpikes]

the only injury he's had that's cost him more than 2 games in any season was his foot from last year. He is also only 2 years older than DMC.

lol -- that's the whole point, last year DMC played more games than MJD, so MJD was the lesser pick, even in DMC's bad season (12 games btw, not 5 or 6) ...and we could have been having this argument 12 months ago... and like Wil said, it's about 2013, not about any years before 2013, those points are locked in and gone.

I'll give you a great example, even though it's a different position --

Matthew Stafford gets hurt in his first two seasons, everyone considers him "injury prone", so he goes late in fantasy drafts in 2011, only to play all 16 games, throw for 5000 yards and 41 TD! So the next year, he's a top 5 guy right? Well, drafted that way for the most part (give or take a few), and what happens? Half the TDs, on basically the same surrounding stats, with more pass attempts.



and I think it was you that said, RB's fall off cliffs quicker than anyone (or something like that with the same meaning), so wouldn't two years be quite significant?

 

[wilwhite]

I love Bush in any format this year. Having him, Wilson or Miller as an RB3 would make me very happy.

Try him as an RB1.

 

[Sox33OSU]

lol -- that's the whole point, last year DMC played more games than MJD, so MJD was the lesser pick, even in DMC's bad season (12 games btw, not 5 or 6) ...and we could have been having this argument 12 months ago... and like Wil said, it's about 2013, not about any years before 2013, those points are locked in and gone.

I'll give you a great example, even though it's a different position --

Matthew Stafford gets hurt in his first two seasons, everyone considers him "injury prone", so he goes late in fantasy drafts in 2011, only to play all 16 games, throw for 5000 yards and 41 TD! So the next year, he's a top 5 guy right? Well, drafted that way for the most part (give or take a few), and what happens? Half the TDs, on basically the same surrounding stats, with more pass attempts.



and I think it was you that said, RB's fall off cliffs quicker than anyone (or something like that with the same meaning), so wouldn't two years be quite significant?

You've lost me on the Stafford comparison.

Last year MJD missed time due to a foot injury, from which he is feeling no ill effects. He hasn't missed time from any other injuries since 2010, and even then it was just a couple of games. I'm fine with that. There's very little about that that makes me uncomfortable. DMC misses time every year from a variety of different injuries (he's had 7 different injuries in his 5 year career ), and sure as the sun rises, he is currently suffering from one of them. What it comes down to is this - would you rather have a guy who misses time every year due to a variety of different injuries, or a guy who once had a freak injury that is now healed that has otherwise never missed significant time? With their fantasy potential being pretty equal (as I mentioned before, a .5 points per week difference approximately), it's MJD without a shadow of a doubt. Yes, RBs have a short shelf-life. However, I'd MUCH rather have the guy with the much cleaner injury history, especially when we're talking about a difference of 2 years. If MJD was 30 and DMC was 23, it'd be different.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Try him as an RB1.

If it was a PPR format, I'd be totally cool with it, especially if I was able to use my first 3 picks on like Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas and Jimmy Graham.