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saddles
No More "Bullpen Failure"
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We have come to another offseason. This one seems much different than the last few. We have a lot more guys leaving in free agency than in some of the past years. Our needs, going into this offseason, are much fewer than in these last few years. We need to find a way to remain World Series contenders. The goal is to become even better than our 2023 World Series Championship team.
I think most of us on here see the bullpen as our biggest need. There are going to be lots of 40-man roster spots to fill, but besides those spots in the bullpen, not very many 26-man roster spots need to be filled from outside the organization.
Currently, including guys on the 60-day DL, we have 45 guys on the 40-man roster. Of those on the 60-day DL, 4 of them most likely will not return. Those are Brad Miller, Ian Kennedy, Jake Odorizzi, and Brett Martin. The only one currently on the 60-day DL, that is a given to stay on the 40-man roster, is Jake deGrom. Of the other 4, all of them are free agents except Brett Martin.
Sportrac lists us with 14 free agents, but two have options. Heaney has a player option, and Leclerc has a team option. The Rangers are sure to retain Leclerc, but it is much harder to guess what route Heaney will go.
Sportrac estimates the Rangers are about $55 million under the Luxury Tax Threshold for 2024. That doesn't include the arbitration figures that are still to come. It also doesn't include salaries for players who are not yet eligible for arbitration. Here is what MLBTR projects for the arbitration salary figures for the Rangers in 2024.
If the Rangers do not plan on bringing Bush and Martin back that arbitration total is $28.1 million. The league minimum next year is $740,000. The 26-man roster will most likely include 7 or 8 guys making the league minimum next year. With 8 guys making the minimum that totals $5.9 million. So, the projected total for minimum salary guys and salary arbitration eligible guys is $34 million. That only leaves us $21 million below the Luxury Tax Threshold.
That isn't much wiggle room. There is a way to create more room and that is to trade away veterans and replace them with guys making the league minimum. I have read in other places talk of trading Taveras and/or Lowe. Even if we traded both of them, it would only open up $11.2 million. Trading both leaves us $32.2 million below the Luxury Tax Threshold. The Rangers could choose to go above the Threshold, but even then, I doubt they would go very much above it.
One other possible help could come in the form of a trade of either Jon Gray or Andrew Heaney. Of course, Heaney deciding to opt out would help as well. The amount of Heaney's salary that counts toward the Luxury Tax next year is $12.5 million and Gray's salary is a $14 million hit. Moving on from both Heaney and Gray would free up another $26.5 million. That would allow the Rangers to sign Montgomery. It would also allow another $28 to $30 million left to spend on relievers in free agency.
Montgomery is projected to get a new contract with an AAV of $25 million. The best relief pitcher, Josh Hader, is projected to get a contract with an AAV of $20 million. To sign only those two free agents and no more would cost a total of $45 million on an annual basis.
That would leave us with a rotation of Scherzer, Eovaldi, Montgomery, Dunning and Bradford. One or two of those trades mentioned could bring back a young starter or two to have in AAA to go along with Kent and White for starting pitching depth and maybe compete with Bradford for a spot in the rotation.
Without trading away any veterans -- $21 million
Trading away Taveras -- $23.4 million
Trading away Lowe and Taveras -- $$32.2 million
Trading away Lowe, Taveras, plus Heaney leaving -- $44.7 million
Trading away Lowe, Taveras, plus Gray traded and Heaney leaving -- $58.7 million
If the Rangers trade those four veterans and sign Montgomery and Hader it would leave them about $13.7 million below the Luxury Tax threshold.
It looks like the leading candidates to be added to the 40-man roster this winter are the following:
Justin Foscue
Blaine Crim
Dane Acker
Antoine Kelly
Jose Corniell
Davis Wendzel
I imagine the first 4 will be protected. I would think both Ornelas and Winn are in danger of losing their 40-man spots.
So, let's get the hot stove talk underway.
I think most of us on here see the bullpen as our biggest need. There are going to be lots of 40-man roster spots to fill, but besides those spots in the bullpen, not very many 26-man roster spots need to be filled from outside the organization.
Currently, including guys on the 60-day DL, we have 45 guys on the 40-man roster. Of those on the 60-day DL, 4 of them most likely will not return. Those are Brad Miller, Ian Kennedy, Jake Odorizzi, and Brett Martin. The only one currently on the 60-day DL, that is a given to stay on the 40-man roster, is Jake deGrom. Of the other 4, all of them are free agents except Brett Martin.
Sportrac lists us with 14 free agents, but two have options. Heaney has a player option, and Leclerc has a team option. The Rangers are sure to retain Leclerc, but it is much harder to guess what route Heaney will go.
Sportrac estimates the Rangers are about $55 million under the Luxury Tax Threshold for 2024. That doesn't include the arbitration figures that are still to come. It also doesn't include salaries for players who are not yet eligible for arbitration. Here is what MLBTR projects for the arbitration salary figures for the Rangers in 2024.
- Matt Bush (5.058): $2.1MM
- Brett Martin (4.151): $1.28MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (3.145): $8.8MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.131): $1.3MM
- Jonah Heim (3.097): $3.6MM
- Adolis Garcia (3.095): $6.6MM
- Dane Dunning (3.083): $3.4MM
- Brock Burke (3.065): $1.1MM
- Josh Sborz (3.055): $900K
- Leody Taveras (2.124): $2.4MM
If the Rangers do not plan on bringing Bush and Martin back that arbitration total is $28.1 million. The league minimum next year is $740,000. The 26-man roster will most likely include 7 or 8 guys making the league minimum next year. With 8 guys making the minimum that totals $5.9 million. So, the projected total for minimum salary guys and salary arbitration eligible guys is $34 million. That only leaves us $21 million below the Luxury Tax Threshold.
That isn't much wiggle room. There is a way to create more room and that is to trade away veterans and replace them with guys making the league minimum. I have read in other places talk of trading Taveras and/or Lowe. Even if we traded both of them, it would only open up $11.2 million. Trading both leaves us $32.2 million below the Luxury Tax Threshold. The Rangers could choose to go above the Threshold, but even then, I doubt they would go very much above it.
One other possible help could come in the form of a trade of either Jon Gray or Andrew Heaney. Of course, Heaney deciding to opt out would help as well. The amount of Heaney's salary that counts toward the Luxury Tax next year is $12.5 million and Gray's salary is a $14 million hit. Moving on from both Heaney and Gray would free up another $26.5 million. That would allow the Rangers to sign Montgomery. It would also allow another $28 to $30 million left to spend on relievers in free agency.
Montgomery is projected to get a new contract with an AAV of $25 million. The best relief pitcher, Josh Hader, is projected to get a contract with an AAV of $20 million. To sign only those two free agents and no more would cost a total of $45 million on an annual basis.
That would leave us with a rotation of Scherzer, Eovaldi, Montgomery, Dunning and Bradford. One or two of those trades mentioned could bring back a young starter or two to have in AAA to go along with Kent and White for starting pitching depth and maybe compete with Bradford for a spot in the rotation.
Wiggle Room Below the Luxury Tax Threshold
Without trading away any veterans -- $21 million
Trading away Taveras -- $23.4 million
Trading away Lowe and Taveras -- $$32.2 million
Trading away Lowe, Taveras, plus Heaney leaving -- $44.7 million
Trading away Lowe, Taveras, plus Gray traded and Heaney leaving -- $58.7 million
If the Rangers trade those four veterans and sign Montgomery and Hader it would leave them about $13.7 million below the Luxury Tax threshold.
40-Man Roster Decisions
It looks like the leading candidates to be added to the 40-man roster this winter are the following:
Justin Foscue
Blaine Crim
Dane Acker
Antoine Kelly
Jose Corniell
Davis Wendzel
I imagine the first 4 will be protected. I would think both Ornelas and Winn are in danger of losing their 40-man spots.
So, let's get the hot stove talk underway.
